880 resultados para predictive value of tests


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To better understand the relationship between tumor-host interactions and the efficacy of chemotherapy, we have developed an analytical approach to quantify several biological processes observed in gene expression data sets. We tested the approach on tumor biopsies from individuals with estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer treated with chemotherapy. We report that increased stromal gene expression predicts resistance to preoperative chemotherapy with 5-fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (FEC) in subjects in the EORTC 10994/BIG 00-01 trial. The predictive value of the stromal signature was successfully validated in two independent cohorts of subjects who received chemotherapy but not in an untreated control group, indicating that the signature is predictive rather than prognostic. The genes in the signature are expressed in reactive stroma, according to reanalysis of data from microdissected breast tumor samples. These findings identify a previously undescribed resistance mechanism to FEC treatment and suggest that antistromal agents may offer new ways to overcome resistance to chemotherapy.

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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

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OBJECTIVE: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is widely used to monitor the temporal course of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), but its ability to predict clinical deterioration or infarction from delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) remains controversial. We sought to determine the prognostic utility of serial TCD examination after SAH. METHODS: We analyzed 1877 TCD examinations in 441 aneurysmal SAH patients within 14 days of onset. The highest mean blood flow velocity (mBFV) value in any vessel before DCI onset was recorded. DCI was defined as clinical deterioration or computed tomographic evidence of infarction caused by vasospasm, with adjudication by consensus of the study team. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for DCI risk after controlling for other risk factors. RESULTS: DCI occurred in 21% of patients (n = 92). Multivariate predictors of DCI included modified Fisher computed tomographic score (P = 0.001), poor clinical grade (P = 0.04), and female sex (P = 0.008). After controlling for these variables, all TCD mBFV thresholds between 120 and 180 cm/s added a modest degree of incremental predictive value for DCI at nearly all time points, with maximal sensitivity by SAH day 8. However, the sensitivity of any mBFV more than 120 cm/s for subsequent DCI was only 63%, with a positive predictive value of 22% among patients with Hunt and Hess grades I to III and 36% in patients with Hunt and Hess grades IV and V. Positive predictive value was only slightly higher if mBFV exceeded 180 cm/s. CONCLUSION: Increased TCD flow velocities imply only a mild incremental risk of DCI after SAH, with maximal sensitivity by day 8. Nearly 40% of patients with DCI never attained an mBFV more than 120 cm/s during the course of monitoring. Given the poor overall sensitivity of TCD, improved methods for identifying patients at high risk for DCI after SAH are needed.

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Infective endocarditis (IE) is lethal if not aggressively treated with antibiotics alone or in combination with surgery. The epidemiology of this condition has substantially changed over the past four decades, especially in industrialized countries. Once a disease that predominantly affected young adults with previously well-identified valve disease--mostly chronic rheumatic heart disease--IE now tends to affect older patients and new at-risk groups, including intravenous-drug users, patients with intracardiac devices, and patients exposed to healthcare-associated bacteremia. As a result, skin organisms (for example, Staphylococcus spp.) are now reported as the pathogen in these populations more often than oral streptococci, which still prevail in the community and in native-valve IE. Moreover, progress in molecular diagnostics has helped to improve the diagnosis of poorly cultivable pathogens, such as Bartonella spp. and Tropheryma whipplei, which are responsible for blood-culture-negative IE more often than expected. Epidemiological data indicate that IE mostly occurs independently of medico-surgical procedures, and that circumstantial antibiotic prophylaxis is likely to protect only a minute proportion of individuals at risk. Therefore, new strategies to prevent IE--including improvement of dental hygiene, decontamination of carriers of Staphylococcus aureus, vaccination, and, possibly, antiplatelet therapy--must be explored.

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Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) as treatment in acute ischaemic strokes may be insufficient to achieve recanalisation in certain patients. Predicting probability of non-recanalisation after IVT may have the potential to influence patient selection to more aggressive management strategies. We aimed at deriving and internally validating a predictive score for post-thrombolytic non-recanalisation, using clinical and radiological variables. In thrombolysis registries from four Swiss academic stroke centres (Lausanne, Bern, Basel and Geneva), patients were selected with large arterial occlusion on acute imaging and with repeated arterial assessment at 24 hours. Based on a logistic regression analysis, an integer-based score for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated. Performance of integer-based predictive model was assessed by bootstrapping available data and cross validation (delete-d method). In 599 thrombolysed strokes, five variables were identified as independent predictors of absence of recanalisation: Acute glucose > 7 mmol/l (A), significant extracranial vessel STenosis (ST), decreased Range of visual fields (R), large Arterial occlusion (A) and decreased Level of consciousness (L). All variables were weighted 1, except for (L) which obtained 2 points based on β-coefficients on the logistic scale. ASTRAL-R scores 0, 3 and 6 corresponded to non-recanalisation probabilities of 18, 44 and 74 % respectively. Predictive ability showed AUC of 0.66 (95 %CI, 0.61-0.70) when using bootstrap and 0.66 (0.63-0.68) when using delete-d cross validation. In conclusion, the 5-item ASTRAL-R score moderately predicts non-recanalisation at 24 hours in thrombolysed ischaemic strokes. If its performance can be confirmed by external validation and its clinical usefulness can be proven, the score may influence patient selection for more aggressive revascularisation strategies in routine clinical practice.

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BACKGROUND: Lack of electroencephalography (EEG) background reactivity during therapeutic hypothermia (TH) has been associated with poor outcome in post-anoxic comatose patients. However, decision on intensive care withdrawal is based on normothermic (NT) evaluations. This study aims at exploring whether patients showing recovery of EEG reactivity in NT after a non-reactive EEG in TH differ from those remaining non-reactive. METHODS: Patients with non-reactive EEG during TH were identified from our prospective registry of consecutive comatose adults admitted after successful resuscitation from CA between April 2009 and June 2014. Variables including neurological examination, serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE), procalcitonin, and EEG features were compared regarding impact on functional outcome at 3 months. RESULTS: Seventy-two of 197 patients (37 %) had a non-reactive EEG background during TH with thirteen (18 %) evolving towards reactivity in NT. Compared to those remaining non-reactive (n = 59), they showed significantly better recovery of brainstem reflexes (p < 0.001), better motor responses (p < 0.001), transitory consciousness improvement (p = 0.008), and a tendency toward lower NSE (p = 0.067). One patient recovering EEG reactivity survived with good functional outcome at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Recovery of EEG reactivity from TH to NT seems to distinguish two patients' subgroups regarding early neurological assessment and transitory consciousness improvement, corroborating the role of EEG in providing information about cerebral functions. Understanding these dynamic changes encourages maintenance of intensive support in selected patients even after a non-reactive EEG background in TH, as a small subgroup may indeed recover with good functional outcome.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with significantly increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Fluid overload may promote obstructive sleep apnea in patients with ESRD through an overnight fluid shift from the legs to the neck soft tissues. Body fluid shift and severity of obstructive sleep apnea before and after hemodialysis were compared in patients with ESRD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Seventeen patients with hemodialysis and moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea were included. Polysomnographies were performed the night before and after hemodialysis to assess obstructive sleep apnea, and bioimpedance was used to measure fluid overload and leg fluid volume. RESULTS: The mean overnight rostral fluid shift was 1.27±0.41 L prehemodialysis; it correlated positively with fluid overload volume (r=0.39; P=0.02) and was significantly lower posthemodialysis (0.78±0.38 L; P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the mean obstructive apnea-hypopnea index before and after hemodialysis (46.8±22.0 versus 42.1±18.6 per hour; P=0.21), but obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly lower posthemodialysis (-10.1±10.8 per hour) in the group of 12 patients, with a concomitant reduction of fluid overload compared with participants without change in fluid overload (obstructive apnea-hypopnea index +8.2±16.1 per hour; P<0.01). A lower fluid overload after hemodialysis was significantly correlated (r=0.49; P=0.04) with a lower obstructive apnea-hypopnea index. Fluid overload-assessed by bioimpedance-was the best predictor of the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index observed after hemodialysis (standardized r=-0.68; P=0.01) in multivariate regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Fluid overload influences overnight rostral fluid shift and obstructive sleep apnea severity in patients with ESRD undergoing intermittent hemodialysis. Although no benefit of hemodialysis on obstructive sleep apnea severity was observed in the whole group, the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly correlated with the change in fluid overload after hemodialysis. Moreover, the subgroup with lower fluid overload posthemodialysis showed a significantly lower obstructive sleep apnea severity, which provides a strong incentive to further study whether optimizing fluid status in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and ESRD will improve the obstructive apnea-hypopnea index.

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El EuroSCORE II es una de las escalas más empleadas como predictor de riesgo de mortalidad en los servicios de cirugía cardiovascular. Esta ha sido validada en diferentes hospitales alrededor del mundo demostrando una adecuada capacidad de discriminación. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar el valor predictivo de la escala de riesgo EuroSCORE II en los pacientes sometidos a Cirugía Cardiovascular en una institución de cuarto nivel de Bogotá. Metodología: Estudio de prueba diagnóstica observacional y retrospectivo de la cohorte de pacientes en una institución de cuarto nivel durante los años 2012 a 2014. Se realizó el cálculo del EuroSCORE II para cada paciente, comparando la mortalidad predicha versus la observada, de forma global y por grupo de riesgo. Resultados: Del total de la población que tuvo intervención cardiaca mayor en una institución de cuarto nivel en la cohorte estudiada se presentaron 58 casos de muerte en los treinta días posteriores a la intervención, que corresponde al 7,46%. La mortalidad esperada calculada con el EuroSCORE II fue del 9,26%, lo cual indica un buen poder de predicción para esta población. Por otro lado, la curva ROC evidencia con un valor de 0.757 del área bajo la curva, que el modelo El EuroSCORE II es un buen modelo predictivo con un adecuado valor de discriminación. Se evidenció que las variables estado crítico preoperatorio y función del ventrículo izquierdo tienen mayor peso estadístico en nuestra población objeto, con una significancia del 0,001, seguido de infarto agudo de miocardio, sexo y peso de la intervención con una significancia del 0,01. Adicionalmente, el Euroscore II tiene mejor valor predictivo cuando se realiza un solo procedimiento o revascularización, en comparación a cuando se realiza procedimientos mixtos. Se recomienda realizar un estudio multicéntrico donde se incluyan pacientes con diferentes características demográficas

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Objetivo: Avaliar a acurácia da colposcopia utilizando a Classificação Colposcópica Internacional de 2002. Métodos: 3040 pacientes de população geral foram rastreadas para patologia cervical através de exame citopatológico, captura híbrida para HPV de alto risco e inspeção cervical. As colposcopias que resultaram em biópsia (n=468) executadas no rastreamento e acompanhamento destas pacientes foram gravadas, revistas por dois colposcopistas cegados e incluídas para análise. Resultados: Os observadores apresentaram excelente concordância (Kappa=0.843) no relato dos achados pela nova nomenclatura. A colposcopia apresentou sensibilidade de 86% e especificidade de 30.3% em diferenciar colo normal de colo anormal (LSIL, HSIL ou carcinoma); quando a colposcopia objetivava diferenciar colo normal ou LSIL de HSIL ou carcinoma, apresentou sensibilidade de 61.1% e especificidade de 94.4%. Os achados colposcópicos classificados como “maiores” pela nova classificação apresentaram valores preditivos positivos elevados para HSIL. Presença do achado colposcópico na zona de transformação e tamanho da lesão estavam associados a HSIL. Bordas externas definidas, associação de múltiplos achados distintos e presença de zona iodo negativa não estavam relacionados à gravidade das lesões. Conclusão: A colposcopia utilizando a Classificação Internacional de 2002 mostra-se um bom método de rastreamento, mas como método diagnóstico apresenta falhas, não podendo substituir a avaliação histológica. A categorização em achados colposcópicos “maiores” e “menores” apresentada pela nova classificação é adequada. Na realização da colposcopia, é importante também que a lesão seja situada em relação à zona de transformação e que seu tamanho seja indicado, já que estes foram fatores associados a lesões de alto grau.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the discrepancy index between the clinical and histological diagnosis and the prevalence of epithelial dysplasia and carcinoma in 45 patients with potentially malignant epithelial oral lesions (PMEL). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We submitted 45 patients with PMEL to clinical examination and obtained a biopsy from each. The results of histological diagnosis were compared to the clinical diagnosis. RESULTS: Clinical diagnosis showed that the most common PMEL was leukoplakia followed by lichen planus and by actinic cheilitis associated with leukoplakia. The most common site was the buccal mucosa. Histological diagnosis revealed that 46.7% of the PMEL were lichen planus. The discrepancy index between clinical and histological diagnosis was 24.4%. The higher discrepancy index occurred among leukoplakias. The prevalence of epithelial dysplasia and carcinoma was 17.8%. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that all PMEL should be submitted to a microscopic analysis because the discrepancy between clinical and histological diagnosis was present in a quarter of these lesions. Otherwise, the epithelial dysplasia and carcinoma were more frequent in the leukoplakias.

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Marfan syndrome (MFS) is an autosomal dominant trait due to mutations in the fibrillin gene (FBN1). The MFS expressivity is variable, and its diagnosis relies completely on clinical criteria. Atypical cases and Marfan- like (marfanoid) clinical presentations are commonly found. The metacarpophalangeal pattern profile (MCPP), a radiological method in which the 19 tubular hand bones are assessed, has been used in the diagnosis of various syndromes. To investigate whether the MCPP was adequate to discriminate between MFS and Marfan-like subjects, we studied 38 patients who were referred to our service because they had an MFS diagnosis, diagnostic hypothesis, or differential diagnosis or had arachnodactyly with dolichostenomelia. Two groups were formed: 1) MFS: 21 patients with a mean age of 18.3 (10.8 S.D.) years and 2) Marfan-like syndromes: 16 patients who did not meet the current criteria, with a mean age of 14.6 (4.6 S.D.) years. The MCPP was performed in each case following the classical technique, and a characteristic mean profile was obtained for group I (MFS), with Z scores ranging from 0.69 to 2.73 (1.80 ± 0.50; mean ± S.D.). In group I, three cases had no correlation with the typical MFS pattern. In group II, three cases had an MFS pattern. The correlation with the mean MCPP of MFS permitted the differential diagnosis of MFS and marfanoid syndromes with 86% sensitivity, 81% specificity, and 86% positive and 81% negative predictive values. The results suggest that MCPP can be used effectively as an auxiliary tool in the nosology of these conditions and, because there is no change in MCPP with age, can be helpful in early diagnosis.

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To describe the preoperative upper limb lymphoscintigraphic pattern in women with breast cancer. Thirty-seven patients undergoing lymphoscintigraphy within 30 days of surgery were investigated. Lymphoscintigraphic studies of 37 upper limbs ipsilateral to surgery and 32 contralateral upper limbs were performed. The examination protocol consisted in obtaining static images of the upper limb in semi-flexion after 10 minutes, and 1 and 2 hours after subcutaneous injection of 1 mCi (37 MBq) of Tc-99m-dextran in the dorsum of the hand. The velocity of axillary lymph node visualization (I, visible at 10 minutes; II, 1 hour; III, 2 hours; and IV, invisible) and degree (intensity) of nodal uptake (a, marked; b, moderate; c,mild; and d, absent) were analyzed. Optimal lymphatic functional pattern (Ia) was observed in four (11%) patients, in the ipsilateral upper limb, and six (19%), in the contralateral upper limb. Worse condition was observed in three (8%) patients (IVd) in the ipsilateral upper limb and two (6%) patients in the contralateral upper limb. The remaining patients showed intermediate states of velocity and uptake intensity. This study found relevant changes in preoperative lymphoscintigraphy, demonstrating preexisting functional differences in the lymphatic system.

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BACKGROUND: Increased intracranial pressure (ICP) is a serious, life-threatening, secondary event following traumatic brain injury (TBI). In many cases, ICP rises in a delayed fashion, reaching a maximal level 48-96 hours after the initial insult. While pressure catheters can be implanted to monitor ICP, there is no clinically proven method for determining a patient's risk for developing this pathology. METHODS: In the present study, we employed antibody array and Luminex-based screening methods to interrogate the levels of inflammatory cytokines in the serum of healthy volunteers and in severe TBI patients (GCS RESULTS: Consistent with previous reports, we observed sustained increases in IL-6 levels in TBI patients irrespective of their ICP status. However, the group of patients who subsequently experienced ICP >or= 25 mm Hg had significantly higher IL-6 levels within the first 17 hours of injury as compared to the patients whose ICP remained 128 pg/ml correctly identified 85% of isolated TBI patients who subsequently developed elevated ICP, and values between these cut-off values correctly identified 75% of all patients whose ICP remained CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that serum IL-6 can be used for the differential diagnosis of elevated ICP in isolated TBI.