Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

The design of a support department simulator for use in the design of manufacturing systems

Manufacturing firms are driven by competitive pressures to continually improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their organisations. For this reason, manufacturing engineers often implement changes to existing processes, or design new production facilities, with the expectation of making further gains in manufacturing system performance. This thesis relates to how the likely outcome of this type of decision should be predicted prior to its implementation. The thesis argues that since manufacturing systems must also interact with many other parts of an organisation, the expected performance improvements can often be significantly hampered by constraints that arise elsewhere in the business. As a result, decision-makers should attempt to predict just how well a proposed design will perform when these other factors, or 'support departments', are taken into consideration. However, the thesis also demonstrates that, in practice, where quantitative analysis is used to evaluate design decisions, the analysis model invariably ignores the potential impact of support functions on a system's overall performance. A more comprehensive modelling approach is therefore required. A study of how various business functions interact establishes that to properly represent the kind of delays that give rise to support department constraints, a model should actually portray the dynamic and stochastic behaviour of entities in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing aspects of a business. This implies that computer simulation be used to model design decisions but current simulation software does not provide a sufficient range of functionality to enable the behaviour of all of these entities to be represented in this way. The main objective of the research has therefore been the development of a new simulator that will overcome limitations of existing software and so enable decision-makers to conduct a more holistic evaluation of design decisions. It is argued that the application of object-oriented techniques offers a potentially better way of fulfilling both the functional and ease-of-use issues relating to development of the new simulator. An object-oriented analysis and design of the system, called WBS/Office, are therefore presented that extends to modelling a firm's administrative and other support activities in the context of the manufacturing system design process. A particularly novel feature of the design is the ability for decision-makers to model how a firm's specific information and document processing requirements might hamper shop-floor performance. The simulator is primarily intended for modelling make-to-order batch manufacturing systems and the thesis presents example models created using a working version of WBS/Office that demonstrate the feasibility of using the system to analyse manufacturing system designs in this way.

Design of an expandable manufacturing simulator through the application of object-oriented principles

In analysing manufacturing systems, for either design or operational reasons, failure to account for the potentially significant dynamics could produce invalid results. There are many analysis techniques that can be used, however, simulation is unique in its ability to assess detailed, dynamic behaviour. The use of simulation to analyse manufacturing systems would therefore seem appropriate if not essential. Many simulation software products are available but their ease of use and scope of application vary greatly. This is illustrated at one extreme by simulators which offer rapid but limited application whilst at the other simulation languages which are extremely flexible but tedious to code. Given that a typical manufacturing engineer does not posses in depth programming and simulation skills then the use of simulators over simulation languages would seem a more appropriate choice. Whilst simulators offer ease of use their limited functionality may preclude their use in many applications. The construction of current simulators makes it difficult to amend or extend the functionality of the system to meet new challenges. Some simulators could even become obsolete as users, demand modelling functionality that reflects the latest manufacturing system design and operation concepts. This thesis examines the deficiencies in current simulation tools and considers whether they can be overcome by the application of object-oriented principles. Object-oriented techniques have gained in popularity in recent years and are seen as having the potential to overcome any of the problems traditionally associated with software construction. There are a number of key concepts that are exploited in the work described in this thesis: the use of object-oriented techniques to act as a framework for abstracting engineering concepts into a simulation tool and the ability to reuse and extend object-oriented software. It is argued that current object-oriented simulation tools are deficient and that in designing such tools, object -oriented techniques should be used not just for the creation of individual simulation objects but for the creation of the complete software. This results in the ability to construct an easy to use simulator that is not limited by its initial functionality. The thesis presents the design of an object-oriented data driven simulator which can be freely extended. Discussion and work is focused on discrete parts manufacture. The system developed retains the ease of use typical of data driven simulators. Whilst removing any limitation on its potential range of applications. Reference is given to additions made to the simulator by other developers not involved in the original software development. Particular emphasis is put on the requirements of the manufacturing engineer and the need for Ihe engineer to carrv out dynamic evaluations.

CamSim:a distributed smart camera network simulator

Smart cameras allow pre-processing of video data on the camera instead of sending it to a remote server for further analysis. Having a network of smart cameras allows various vision tasks to be processed in a distributed fashion. While cameras may have different tasks, we concentrate on distributed tracking in smart camera networks. This application introduces various highly interesting problems. Firstly, how can conflicting goals be satisfied such as cameras in the network try to track objects while also trying to keep communication overhead low? Secondly, how can cameras in the network self adapt in response to the behavior of objects and changes in scenarios, to ensure continued efficient performance? Thirdly, how can cameras organise themselves to improve the overall network's performance and efficiency? This paper presents a simulation environment, called CamSim, allowing distributed self-adaptation and self-organisation algorithms to be tested, without setting up a physical smart camera network. The simulation tool is written in Java and hence allows high portability between different operating systems. Relaxing various problems of computer vision and network communication enables a focus on implementing and testing new self-adaptation and self-organisation algorithms for cameras to use.

Practical photovoltaic simulator with a cross tackling control strategy based on the first-hand duty cycle processing

This paper proposes a methodological scheme for the photovoltaic (PV) simulator design. With the advantages of a digital controller system, linear interpolation is proposed for precise fitting with higher computational efficiency. A novel control strategy that directly tackles two different duty cycles is proposed and implemented to achieve a full-range operation including short circuit (SC) and open circuit (OC) conditions. Systematic design procedures for both hardware and algorithm are explained, and a prototype is built. Experimental results confirm an accurate steady state performance under different load conditions, including SC and OC. This low power apparatus can be adopted for PV education and research with a limited budget.

An Empirically Based Stochastic Turbulence Simulator with Temporal Coherence for Wind Energy Applications

In this dissertation, we develop a novel methodology for characterizing and simulating nonstationary, full-field, stochastic turbulent wind fields.

In this new method, nonstationarity is characterized and modeled via temporal coherence, which is quantified in the discrete frequency domain by probability distributions of the differences in phase between adjacent Fourier components.

The empirical distributions of the phase differences can also be extracted from measured data, and the resulting temporal coherence parameters can quantify the occurrence of nonstationarity in empirical wind data.

This dissertation (1) implements temporal coherence in a desktop turbulence simulator, (2) calibrates empirical temporal coherence models for four wind datasets, and (3) quantifies the increase in lifetime wind turbine loads caused by temporal coherence.

The four wind datasets were intentionally chosen from locations around the world so that they had significantly different ambient atmospheric conditions.

The prevalence of temporal coherence and its relationship to other standard wind parameters was modeled through empirical joint distributions (EJDs), which involved fitting marginal distributions and calculating correlations.

EJDs have the added benefit of being able to generate samples of wind parameters that reflect the characteristics of a particular site.

Lastly, to characterize the effect of temporal coherence on design loads, we created four models in the open-source wind turbine simulator FAST based on the \windpact turbines, fit response surfaces to them, and used the response surfaces to calculate lifetime turbine responses to wind fields simulated with and without temporal coherence.

The training data for the response surfaces was generated from exhaustive FAST simulations that were run on the high-performance computing (HPC) facilities at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

This process was repeated for wind field parameters drawn from the empirical distributions and for wind samples drawn using the recommended procedure in the wind turbine design standard \iec.

The effect of temporal coherence was calculated as a percent increase in the lifetime load over the base value with no temporal coherence.

AGOCS – Accurate Google Cloud Simulator Framework

This paper presents the Accurate Google Cloud Simulator (AGOCS) – a novel high-fidelity Cloud workload simulator based on parsing real workload traces, which can be conveniently used on a desktop machine for day-to-day research. Our simulation is based on real-world workload traces from a Google Cluster with 12.5K nodes, over a period of a calendar month. The framework is able to reveal very precise and detailed parameters of the executed jobs, tasks and nodes as well as to provide actual resource usage statistics. The system has been implemented in Scala language with focus on parallel execution and an easy-to-extend design concept. The paper presents the detailed structural framework for AGOCS and discusses our main design decisions, whilst also suggesting alternative and possibly performance enhancing future approaches. The framework is available via the Open Source GitHub repository.

A 3D printed electromagnetic nonlinear vibration energy harvester

A 3D printed electromagnetic vibration energy harvester is presented. The motion of the device is in-plane with the excitation vibrations, and this is enabled through the exploitation of a leaf isosceles trapezoidal flexural pivot topology. This topology is ideally suited for systems requiring restricted out-of-plane motion and benefits from being fabricated monolithically. This is achieved by 3D printing the topology with materials having a low flexural modulus. The presented system has a nonlinear softening spring response, as a result of designed magnetic force interactions. A discussion of fatigue performance is presented and it is suggested that whilst fabricating, the raster of the suspension element is printed perpendicular to the flexural direction and that the experienced stress is as low as possible during operation, to ensure longevity. A demonstrated power of ~25 μW at 0.1 g is achieved and 2.9 mW is demonstrated at 1 g. The corresponding bandwidths reach up-to 4.5 Hz. The system's corresponding power density of ~0.48 mW cm−3 and normalised power integral density of 11.9 kg m−3 (at 1 g) are comparable to other in-plane systems found in the literature.

SMILE: Simulator for Maryland Imitation Learning Environment

As robot imitation learning is beginning to replace conventional hand-coded approaches in programming robot behaviors, much work is focusing on learning from the actions of demonstrators. We hypothesize that in many situations, procedural tasks can be learned more effectively by observing object behaviors while completely ignoring the demonstrator's motions. To support studying this hypothesis and robot imitation learning in general, we built a software system named SMILE that is a simulated 3D environment. In this virtual environment, both a simulated robot and a user-controlled demonstrator can manipulate various objects on a tabletop. The demonstrator is not embodied in SMILE, and therefore a recorded demonstration appears as if the objects move on their own. In addition to recording demonstrations, SMILE also allows programing the simulated robot via Matlab scripts, as well as creating highly customizable objects for task scenarios via XML. This report describes the features and usages of SMILE.

A noise simulator for eLISA: Migrating LISA Pathfinder knowledge to the eLISA mission

We present a new technical simulator for the eLISA mission, based on state space modeling techniques and developed in MATLAB. This simulator computes the coordinate and velocity over time of each body involved in the constellation, i.e. the spacecraft and its test masses, taking into account the different disturbances and actuations. This allows studying the contribution of instrumental noises and system imperfections on the residual acceleration applied on the TMs, the latter reflecting the performance of the achieved free-fall along the sensitive axis. A preliminary version of the results is presented.

A rolling-gliding wear simulator for the investigation of tribological material pairings for application in total knee arthroplasty

Background: Material wear testing is an important technique in the development and evaluation of materials for use in implant for total knee arthroplasty. Since a knee joint induces a complex rolling-gliding movement, standardised material wear testing devices such as Pin-on-Disc or Ring-on-Disc testers are suitable to only a limited extent because they generate pure gliding motion only.Methods: A rolling-gliding wear simulator was thus designed, constructed and implemented, which simulates and reproduces the rolling-gliding movement and loading of the knee joint on specimens of simplified geometry. The technical concept was to run a base-plate, representing the tibia plateau, against a pivoted cylindrical counter-body, representing one femur condyle under an axial load. A rolling movement occurs as a result of the friction and pure gliding is induced by limiting the rotation of the cylindrical counter-body. The set up also enables simplified specimens handling and removal for gravimetrical wear measurements. Long-term wear tests and gravimetrical wear measurements were carried out on the well known material pairings: cobalt chrome-polyethylene, ceramic-polyethylene and ceramic-ceramic, over three million motion cycles to allow material comparisons to be made.Results: The observed differences in wear rates between cobalt-chrome on polyethylene and ceramic on polyethylene pairings were similar to the differences of published data for existing material-pairings. Test results on ceramic-ceramic pairings of different frontal-plane geometry and surface roughness displayed low wear rates and no fracture failures.Conclusions: The presented set up is able to simulate the rolling-gliding movement of the knee joint, is easy to use, and requires a minimum of user intervention or monitoring. It is suitable for long-term testing, and therefore a useful tool for the investigation of new and promising materials which are of interest for application in knee joint replacement implants. © 2010 Richter et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.