The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Sustainable futures : the new design landscape

Design talks LOUDLY!!! Is a series of interactive presentations exploring issues and opportunities involving professional design. These seminars are organised by the Industrial Design Network Queensland (IDnetQLD) in coordination with the Design Institute of Australia (DIA). This event was held at the State Library of Queensland (SLQ) with invited public presentations by a panel of industry experts from Brisbane City Council, Sims Recycling Solutions and BEST Futures. The second seminar "Sustainable Futures: The New Design Landscape" highlighted to design professionals the positive effect the design industry can achieve in moving towards a sustainable future. A series of presentations from specialist speakers outlined the new generation of design and how design can surf the sustainable shift. A product’s journey from concept to creation and a life beyond was presented and discussed as a basis of designing for sustainability. The intent of the seminar was to inject a brand new sense of purpose into the design world through inspiring designers to find solutions which move forward into this new sustainable landscape.

Towards sustainable urban futures : evaluating urban sustainability performance of the Gold coast, Australia

Creating sustainable urban environments is one of the challenging issues that need a clear vision and implementation strategies involving changes in governmental values and decision making process for local governments. Particularly, internalisation of environmental externalities of daily urban activities (e.g. manufacturing, transportation and so on) has immense importance for which local policies are formulated to provide better living conditions for the people inhabiting urban areas. Even if environmental problems are defined succinctly by various stakeholders, complicated nature of sustainability issues demand a structured evaluation strategy and well-defined sustainability parameters for efficient and effective policy making. Following this reasoning, this study involves assessment of sustainability performance of urban settings mainly focusing on environmental problems caused by rapid urban expansion and transformation. By taking into account land-use and transportation interaction, it tries to reveal how future urban developments would alter daily urban travel behaviour of people and affect the urban and natural environments. The paper introduces a grid-based indexing method developed for this research and trailed as a GIS-based decision support tool to analyse and model selected spatial and aspatial indicators of sustainability in the Gold Coast. This process reveals parameters of site specific relationship among selected indicators that are used to evaluate index-based performance characteristics of the area. The evaluation is made through an embedded decision support module by assigning relative weights to indicators. Resolution of selected grid-based unit of analysis provides insights about service level of projected urban development proposals at a disaggregate level, such as accessibility to transportation and urban services, and pollution. The paper concludes by discussing the findings including the capacity of the decision support system to assist decision-makers in determining problematic areas and developing intervention policies for sustainable outcomes of future developments.

Effects of transportation accessibility on residential property values: Application of spatial hedonic price model in Seoul, South Korea, metropolitan area

A number of studies have focused on estimating the effects of accessibility on housing values by using the hedonic price model. In the majority of studies, estimation results have revealed that housing values increase as accessibility improves, although the magnitude of estimates has varied across studies. Adequately estimating the relationship between transportation accessibility and housing values is challenging for at least two reasons. First, the monocentric city assumption applied in location theory is no longer valid for many large or growing cities. Second, rather than being randomly distributed in space, housing values are clustered in space—often exhibiting spatial dependence. Recognizing these challenges, a study was undertaken to develop a spatial lag hedonic price model in the Seoul, South Korea, metropolitan region, which includes a measure of local accessibility as well as systemwide accessibility, in addition to other model covariates. Although the accessibility measures can be improved, the modeling results suggest that the spatial interactions of apartment sales prices occur across and within traffic analysis zones, and the sales prices for apartment communities are devalued as accessibility deteriorates. Consistent with findings in other cities, this study revealed that the distance to the central business district is still a significant determinant of sales price.

Application of reinforcement learning in an open railway access market price negotiation

In an open railway access market price negotiation, it is feasible to achieve higher cost recovery by applying the principles of price discrimination. The price negotiation can be modeled as an optimization problem of revenue intake. In this paper, we present the pricing negotiation based on reinforcement learning model. A negotiated-price setting technique based on agent learning is introduced, and the feasible applications of the proposed method for open railway access market simulation are discussed.

Planning for sustainable urban futures : an ecological approach to sustainable urban development

In recent years, cities have shown increasing signs of environmental problems due to the negative impacts of urban activities. The degradation and depletion of natural resources, climate change, and development pressure on green areas have become major concerns for cities. In response to these problems, urban planning policies have shifted to a sustainable focus and authorities have begun to develop new strategies for improving the quality of urban ecosystems. An extremely important function of an urban ecosystem is to provide healthy and sustainable environments for both natural systems and communities. Therefore, ecological planning is a functional requirement in the establishment of sustainable built environment. With ecological planning, human needs are supplied while natural resources are used in the most effective and sustainable manner and ecological balance is sustained. Protecting human and environmental health, having healthy ecosystems, reducing environmental pollution and providing green spaces are just a few of the many benefits of ecological planning. In this context, this chapter briefly presents a short overview of the importance of the implementation of ecological planning into sustainable urban development. Furthermore, it presents a conceptual framework for a new methodology for developing sustainable urban ecosystems through ecological planning approach.

Creating Active Futures : Edited Proceedings of the 26th ACHPER International Conference

Physical inactivity has become a major cause of the global increase in non-communicable disease (World Health Organisation, 2009}. In 2008, the World Economic Forum called for employers to be proactive in the prevention of non-communicable diseases in the workforce. A significant contributor to the development of a healthy workforce is a reliable pool of employees who are receptive to and aware of healthy lifestyle practices even before becoming employed. Health and Physical Education (HPE) is often stereotyped as 'doing sport'. However, if HPE is to play a part in the development of a healthy workforce, then the HPE learning environment must be about creating meaningful learning for all, which is clearly more than the creation of elite athletes. The ultimate aim of health and physical educators must be about 1) developing lifelong and habitual physical activity; 2) developing generic physical skills; 3) inspiring holistic and positive emotional attitudes and 4) instilling a focus on evidence based knowledge as a framework for inspiring active citizenship. As a response to the worldwide move to the development of healthier people, Australia currently has a strong momentum for an expanded and more unified role for HPE within a potential National curriculum. Other countries have engaged in such a process and much can be learned from their experiences of the process. The 2009 Australian Council for Health, Physical Education and Recreation (ACHPER) conference was a landmark conference that included an International group of experts from all continents and twenty three countries. Creating Active Futures: Edited Proceedings of the 26th ACHPER International Conference is an amalgamation of research and professional perspectives presented at the conference. The papers in this volume emerged from those presented for peer review, rather than through seeking specific articles. This volume is divided into sections based on the five conference themes: 1) Issues in Health and Physical Education (HPE) Pedagogy; 2) Practical Application of Science in HPE; 3) Lifestyle Enhancement; 4) Developing Sporting Excellence; 5) Contemporary Games Teaching. The 'Issues in HPE Pedagogy' section provides a diverse set of perspectives on teaching HPE with papers from a range of topics that include first aid, philosophy, access, cultural characteristics, methods and teaching styles, curriculum, qualifications and emotional development. The second section links science to teaching HPE and provides a range of valuable information on injury prevention, information technology, personality and skill development. Section 3 is a collection of writings and research about Lifestyle Enhancement. Topics include the important role of adventure, the natural world, curriculum, migrant viewpoints, beliefs and globally focused programs in the development of active citizens. The section on sporting excellence contains papers that undertake to explain an aspect of excellence in sport. The last section of this volume highlights some contemporary views on teaching games.

Alternative futures of globalisation a socio-ecological study of the world social forum process

Inspired by the initial World Social Forum in Porto Alegre Brazil, over the past decade over 200 local and regional social forums have been held, on five continents. This study has examined the nature of this broader social forum process, in particular as an aspect of the movement for 'another globalisation'. I discuss both the discourses for 'another world', as well as the development of an Alternative Globalisation Movement. As an action research study, the research took place within a variety of groups and networks. The thesis provides six accounts of groups and people striving and struggling for 'another world'. I provide a macro account of the invention and innovation of the World Social Forum. A grassroots film-makers collective provides a window into media. A local social forum opens up the radical diversity of actors. An activist exchange circle sheds light on strategic aspects of alternative globalisation. An educational initiative provides a window into transformations in pedagogy. And a situational account (of the G20 meeting in Melbourne in 2006) provides an overview of the variety of metanetworks that converge to voice demands for global justice and sustainability. In particular, this study has sought to shed light on how, within this process, groups and communities develop 'agency', a capacity to respond to the global challenges they / we face. And as part of this question, I have also explored how alternatives futures are developed and conceived, with a re-cognition of the importance of histories and geo-political (or 'eco-political') structures as contexts. I argue the World Social Forum Process is prefigurative, as an interactional process where many social alternatives are conceived, supported, developed and innovated into the world. And I argue this innovation process is meta-formative, where convergences of diverse actors comprise ‘social ecologies of alternatives’ which lead to opportunities for dynamic collaboration and partnership.

The digital Dark Ages : a retro-speculative history of possible futures

The Dark Ages are generally held to be a time of technological and intellectual stagnation in western development. But that is not necessarily the case. Indeed, from a certain perspective, nothing could be further from the truth. In this paper we draw historical comparisons, focusing especially on the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, between the technological and intellectual ruptures in Europe during the Dark Ages, and those of our current period. Our analysis is framed in part by Harold Innis’s2 notion of "knowledge monopolies". We give an overview of how these were affected by new media, new power struggles, and new intellectual debates that emerged in thirteenth and fourteenth century Europe. The historical salience of our focus may seem elusive. Our world has changed so much, and history seems to be an increasingly far-from-favoured method for understanding our own period and its future potentials. Yet our seemingly distant historical focus provides some surprising insights into the social dynamics that are at work today: the fracturing of established knowledge and power bases; the democratisation of certain "sacred" forms of communication and knowledge, and, conversely, the "sacrosanct" appropriation of certain vernacular forms; challenges and innovations in social and scientific method and thought; the emergence of social world-shattering media practices; struggles over control of vast networks of media and knowledge monopolies; and the enclosure of public discursive and social spaces for singular, manipulative purposes. The period between the eleventh and fourteenth centuries in Europe prefigured what we now call the Enlightenment, perhaps moreso than any other period before or after; it shaped what the Enlightenment was to become. We claim no knowledge of the future here. But in the "post-everything" society, where history is as much up for sale as it is for argument, we argue that our historical perspective provides a useful analogy for grasping the wider trends in the political economy of media, and for recognising clear and actual threats to the future of the public sphere in supposedly democratic societies.

The digital Dark Ages : a retro-speculative history of possible futures

The Dark Ages are generally held to be a time of technological and intellectual stagnation in western development. But that is not necessarily the case. Indeed, from a certain perspective, nothing could be further from the truth. In this paper we draw historical comparisons, focusing especially on the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, between the technological and intellectual ruptures in Europe during the Dark Ages, and those of our current period. Our analysis is framed in part by Harold Innis’s2 notion of "knowledge monopolies". We give an overview of how these were affected by new media, new power struggles, and new intellectual debates that emerged in thirteenth and fourteenth century Europe. The historical salience of our focus may seem elusive. Our world has changed so much, and history seems to be an increasingly far-from-favoured method for understanding our own period and its future potentials. Yet our seemingly distant historical focus provides some surprising insights into the social dynamics that are at work today: the fracturing of established knowledge and power bases; the democratisation of certain "sacred" forms of communication and knowledge, and, conversely, the "sacrosanct" appropriation of certain vernacular forms; challenges and innovations in social and scientific method and thought; the emergence of social world-shattering media practices; struggles over control of vast networks of media and knowledge monopolies; and the enclosure of public discursive and social spaces for singular, manipulative purposes. The period between the eleventh and fourteenth centuries in Europe prefigured what we now call the Enlightenment, perhaps moreso than any other period before or after; it shaped what the Enlightenment was to become. We claim no knowledge of the future here. But in the "post-everything" society, where history is as much up for sale as it is for argument, we argue that our historical perspective provides a useful analogy for grasping the wider trends in the political economy of media, and for recognising clear and actual threats to the future of the public sphere in supposedly democratic societies.