O valor terminal ou de continuidade, na avaliação de empresas

É um facto que a incerteza sobre o futuro das sociedades tem de ser modelada e incorporada na sua avaliação, fora do período explícito de análise, ou seja: nos valores de continuidade (VC), valor residual (VR) ou valor terminal (VT), considerados nos modelos de avaliação. Existem inúmeros fatores que influenciam o valor de continuidade das empresas e que não são, atualmente, considerados nos modelos de avaliação de empresas, destacando-se, entre os mais relevantes, a ausência de quaisquer referências à esperança média de vida das empresas. De facto, ao ignorarmos esses fatores, podemos incorrer em erros irreparáveis, conduzindo as avaliações a valores de goodwill ou badwill, muito longe do real valor substancial dos ativos, que lhes é intrínseco. Como consequência, os referidos resultados apresentar-se-ão vincadamente diferentes dos valores de mercado. Assim, porque não considerar modelos alternativos (incorporando nos mesmos a esperança de vida das empresas) e a influência de outros fatores, de forma a obter um ajustamento mais eficiente, no que respeita à forma de cálculo do valor da empresa? Este trabalho pretende fornecer um contributo neste domínio, tendo como primeiro objetivo (e para além da revisão da literatura existente sobre a matéria) a construção de uma tábua de mortalidade para as empresas portuguesas, que possa ser utilizada para eliminar ou, pelo menos, reduzir um dos principais problemas causadores de distorção dos atuais modelos de avaliação de empresas: a premissa de existência (ilimitada no tempo) de uma empresa. Com esse propósito, através da metodologia associada à construção de tábuas de mortalidade para os seres humanos, construímos uma tabela com a esperança média de vida associada às empresas portuguesas. Assim, usando uma base de dados (com cerca de 182.000 registos sobre falências, dissoluções e cessão de atividade em Portugal, desde 1900 até 2009), concluímos que, nos primeiros 5 anos, “morrem” 31% das empresas e que a esperança média de vida (à nascença) é de 12 anos. Estes resultados evidenciam a fragilidade dos modelos de avaliação de empresas, em que se estima o VT com uma perpetuidade. Após ficar patente que as empresas não têm uma esperança de vida infinita, preocupar-nos-emos em identificar quais os fatores responsáveis pela existência da empresa (no longo prazo), fatores esses que possam, porventura, justificar uma vida mais longa das sociedades. VI Nesse sentido, o segundo objetivo passou por identificar quais os fatores determinantes do valor terminal da empresa. Assim [utilizando uma amostra de 714 empresas cotadas, pertencentes a 15 países europeus e para um período compreendido entre 1992 e 2011, usando a metodologia GMM (Generalized method of moments), aplicada a dados em painel dinâmico], os resultados evidenciam que o valor de continuidade não pode ser considerado como o valor atual de uma perpetuidade constante (ou com crescimento) de um determinado atributo da empresa mas, sim, em função de um conjunto de atributos, como os free cash flows, os resultados líquidos, a esperança média de vida da empresa, o investimento em I&D, as capacidades e qualidade da gestão, a liquidez dos títulos e a estrutura de financiamento. Como terceiro objetivo (e mantendo a particular atenção na estimação do VT da empresa), procurou-se cruzar os resultados obtidos no estudo anterior com as perceções dos analistas Europeus e Estadunidenses acerca dos atributos da empresa que, na opinião destes, mais contribuem para o seu valor. Para o feito, recorreu-se a um inquérito, com respostas fechadas. Da análise das 123 respostas válidas, obtidas usando a análise fatorial, concluiuse serem determinantes do valor de uma empresa ou negócio os seguintes fatores: a esperança média de vida da empresa, a sua liquidez e desempenho operacional, a inovação e capacidade de afetação de recursos a I&D, as capacidades de gestão e a estrutura de capital, confirmando-se as conclusões até então obtidas. Por fim, fez-se um esforço no sentido de fornecer ao leitor uma nova aproximação teórica ao modelo Discounted CashFlow (DCF), tendo em conta as variáveis entretanto identificadas no nosso estudo. Estes resultados contribuem, a nosso ver, para que se possa caminhar no sentido da construção de um modelo de avaliação de empresas e negócios ainda mais apurado, em que os resultados obtidos nas avaliações se aproximem o mais possível dos verificados no mercado.

Refugium for surface life on Snowball Earth in a nearly enclosed sea? A numerical solution for sea-glacier invation through a narrow strait

Abstract Where photosynthetic eukaryotic organisms survived during the Snowball Earth events of the Neoproterozoic remains unclear. Our previous research tested whether a narrow arm of the ocean, similar to the modern Red Sea, could have been a refugium for photosynthetic eukaryotes during the Snowball Earth. Using an analytical ice-flow model, we demonstrated that a limited range of climate conditions could restrict sea-glacier flow sufficiently to allow an arm of the sea to remain partially free from sea-glacier penetration, a necessary condition for it to act as a refugium. Here we expand on the previous study, using a numerical ice-flow model, with the ability to capture additional physics, to calculate sea-glacier penetration, and to explore the effect of a channel with a narrow entrance. The climatic conditions are made selfconsistent by linking sublimation rate to surface temperature. As expected, the narrow entrance allows parts of the nearly enclosed sea to remain safe from sea-glacier penetration for a wider range of climate conditions.

Diseño y aplicación de un modelo de remuneración variable para una empresa del sector de las telecomunicaciones

Actualmente encontramos una fuerte presión en las organizaciones por adaptarse a un mundo competitivo con un descenso en las utilidades y una incertidumbre constante en su flujo de caja. Estas circunstancias obligan a las organizaciones al mejoramiento continuo buscando nuevas formas de gestionar sus procesos y sus recursos. Para las organizaciones de prestación de servicios en el sector de telecomunicaciones una de las ventajas competitivas más importantes de obtener es la productividad debido a que sus ganancias dependen directamente del número de actividades que puedan ejecutar cada empleado. El reto es hacer más con menos y con mejor calidad. Para lograrlo, la necesidad de gestionar efectivamente los recursos humanos aparece, y aquí es donde los sistemas de compensación toman un rol importante. El objetivo en este trabajo es diseñar y aplicar un modelo de remuneración variable para una empresa de prestación de servicios profesionales en el sector de las telecomunicaciones y con esto aportar al estudio de la gestión del desempeño y del talento humano en Colombia. Su realización permitió la documentación del diseño y aplicación del modelo de remuneración variable en un proyecto del sector de telecomunicaciones en Colombia. Su diseño utilizó las tendencias de programas remunerativos y teorías de gestión de desempeño para lograr un modelo integral que permita el crecimiento sostenido en el largo plazo y la motivación al recurso más importante de la organización que es el talento humano. Su aplicación permitió también la documentación de problemas y aciertos en la implementación de estos modelos.

Cluster identification and characterization in the riser of a circulating fluidized bed from numerical simulation results

A methodology of identification and characterization of coherent structures mostly known as clusters is applied to hydrodynamic results of numerical simulation generated for the riser of a circulating fluidized bed. The numerical simulation is performed using the MICEFLOW code, which includes the two-fluids IIT`s hydrodynamic model B. The methodology for cluster characterization that is used is based in the determination of four characteristics, related to average life time, average volumetric fraction of solid, existing time fraction and frequency of occurrence. The identification of clusters is performed by applying a criterion related to the time average value of the volumetric solid fraction. A qualitative rather than quantitative analysis is performed mainly owing to the unavailability of operational data used in the considered experiments. Concerning qualitative analysis, the simulation results are in good agreement with literature. Some quantitative comparisons between predictions and experiment were also presented to emphasize the capability of the modeling procedure regarding the analysis of macroscopic scale coherent structures. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of groundwater recharge and water fluxes of the Guarani Aquifer System, Brazil

The groundwater recharge and water fluxes of the Guarani Aquifer System in the state of Sao Paulo in Brazil were assessed through a numeric model. The study area (6,748 km(2)) comprises Jacar,-Gua double dagger A(0) and Jacar,-Pepira River watersheds, tributaries of the Tiet River in the central region of the state. GIS based tools were used in the storage, processing and analysis of data. Main hydrologic phenomena were selected, leading to a groundwater conceptual model, taking into account the significant outcrops occurring in the study area. Six recharge zones were related to the geologic formation and structures of the semi-confined and phreatic aquifer. The model was calibrated against the baseflows and static water levels of the wells. The results emphasize the strong interaction of groundwater flows between watersheds and the groundwater inflow into the rivers. It has been concluded that lateral groundwater exchanges between basins, the deep discharges to the regional system, and well exploitation were not significant aquifer outflows when compared to the aquifer recharge. The results have shown that the inflows from the river into the aquifer are significant and have the utmost importance since the aquifer is potentially more vulnerable in these places.

Experimental and numerical investigation of dynamic heat transfer parameters in packed bed

Dynamic experiments in a nonadiabatic packed bed were carried out to evaluate the response to disturbances in wall temperature and inlet airflow rate and temperature. A two-dimensional, pseudo-homogeneous, axially dispersed plug-flow model was numerically solved and used to interpret the results. The model parameters were fitted in distinct stages: effective radial thermal conductivity (K (r)) and wall heat transfer coefficient (h (w)) were estimated from steady-state data and the characteristic packed bed time constant (tau) from transient data. A new correlation for the K (r) in packed beds of cylindrical particles was proposed. It was experimentally proved that temperature measurements using radially inserted thermocouples and a ring-shaped sensor were not distorted by heat conduction across the thermocouple or by the thermal inertia effect of the temperature sensors.

Análise econômica comparativa de empresas de água mineral quanto ao porte

This work makes a comparative economic analysis of a small-, medium- and large-sized mineral water company, the three of which are localized in the State of Sao Paulo. All have the same lines of production such as glasses, bottles and big bottles. The analysis involves the cash flow comparison of the three companies.

NMR imaging of fluid pathways during drainage of softwood in a pressure membrane chamber

An experiment was implemented to study fluid flow in a pressure media. This procedure successfully combines nuclear magnetic resonance imaging with a pressure membrane chamber in order to visualize the non-wetting and wetting fluid flows with controlled boundary conditions. A specially designed pressure membrane chamber, made of non-magnetic materials and able to withstand 4 MPa, was designed and built for this purpose. These two techniques were applied to the drainage of Douglas fir sapwood. In the study of the longitudinal flow, narrow drainage fingers are formed in the latewood zones. They follow the longitudinal direction of wood and spread throughout the sample length. These fingers then enlarge in the cross-section plane and coalesce until drainage reaches the whole latewood part. At the end of the experiments, when the drainage of liquid water in latewood is completed, just a few sites of percolation appear in earlywood zones. This difference is a result of the wood anatomical structure, where pits, the apertures that allow the sap to flow between wood cells, are more easily aspirated in earlywood than in latewood. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leukotrienes Are Potent Adjuvant during Fungal Infection: Effects on Memory T Cells

Leukotrienes (LTs) are potent lipid mediators involved in the control of host defense. LTB(4) induces leukocyte accumulation, enhances phagocytosis and bacterial clearance, and increases NO synthesis. LTB(4) is also important in early effector T cell recruitment that is mediated by LTB(4) receptor 1, the high-affinity receptor for LTB(4). The aims of this study were to evaluate whether LTs are involved in the secondary immune response to vaccination in a murine model of Histoplasma capsulatum infection. Our results demonstrate that protection of wild-type mice immunized with cell-free Ags from H. capsulatum against histoplasmosis was associated with increased LTB(4) and IFN-gamma production as well as recruitment of memory T cells into the lungs. In contrast, cell-free Ag-immunized mice lacking 5-lipoxygenase(-/-), a critical enzyme involved in LT synthesis, displayed a marked decrease on recruitment of memory T cells to the lungs associated with increased synthesis of TGF-beta as well as IL-10. Strikingly, these effects were associated with increased mortality to 5-lipoxygenase(-/-)-infected mice. These data establish an important immunomodulatory role of LTs, in both the primary and secondary immune responses to histoplasmosis. The Journal of Immunology, 2008,181: 8544-8551.

Heat transfer and entropy generation optimization of forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section

We investigate analytically the first and the second law characteristics of fully developed forced convection inside a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section. The Darcy-Brinkman flow model is employed. Three different types of thermal boundary conditions are examined. Expressions for the Nusselt number, the Bejan number, and the dimensionless entropy generation rate are presented in terms of the system parameters. The conclusions of this analytical study will make it possible to compare, evaluate, and optimize alternative rectangular duct design options in terms of heat transfer, pressure drop, and entropy generation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermally developing Brinkman–Brinkman forced convection in rectangular ducts with isothermal walls

The Extended Weighted Residuals Method (EWRM) is applied to investigate the effects of viscous dissipation on the thermal development of forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section with isothermal boundary condition. The Brinkman flow model is employed for determination of the velocity field. The temperature in the flow field was computed by utilizing the Green’s function solution based on the EWRM. Following the computation of the temperature field, expressions are presented for the local Nusselt number and the bulk temperature as a function of the dimensionless longitudinal coordinate. In addition to the aspect ratio, the other parameters included in this computation are the Darcy number, viscosity ratio, and the Brinkman number.

Analysis of heat transfer and entropy generation for a thermally developing Brinkman–Brinkman forced convection problem in a rectangular duct with isoflux walls

Heat transfer and entropy generation analysis of the thermally developing forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section, with walls maintained at a constant and uniform heat flux, is investigated based on the Brinkman flow model. The classical Galerkin method is used to obtain the fully developed velocity distribution. To solve the thermal energy equation, with the effects of viscous dissipation being included, the Extended Weighted Residuals Method (EWRM) is applied. The local (three dimensional) temperature field is solved by utilizing the Green’s function solution based on the EWRM where symbolic algebra is being used for convenience in presentation. Following the computation of the temperature field, expressions are presented for the local Nusselt number and the bulk temperature as a function of the dimensionless longitudinal coordinate, the aspect ratio, the Darcy number, the viscosity ratio, and the Brinkman number. With the velocity and temperature field being determined, the Second Law (of Thermodynamics) aspect of the problem is also investigated. Approximate closed form solutions are also presented for two limiting cases of MDa values. It is observed that decreasing the aspect ratio and MDa values increases the entropy generation rate.

Modelling solute transport in structured soils: Performance evaluation of the ADR and TRM models

The movement of chemicals through the soil to the groundwater or discharged to surface waters represents a degradation of these resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The chemicals of interest include nutrients, pesticides, salts, and industrial wastes. Recent studies have shown that current models and methods do not adequately describe the leaching of nutrients through soil, often underestimating the risk of groundwater contamination by surface-applied chemicals, and overestimating the concentration of resident solutes. This inaccuracy results primarily from ignoring soil structure and nonequilibrium between soil constituents, water, and solutes. A multiple sample percolation system (MSPS), consisting of 25 individual collection wells, was constructed to study the effects of localized soil heterogeneities on the transport of nutrients (NO3-, Cl-, PO43-) in the vadose zone of an agricultural soil predominantly dominated by clay. Very significant variations in drainage patterns across a small spatial scale were observed tone-way ANOVA, p < 0.001) indicating considerable heterogeneity in water flow patterns and nutrient leaching. Using data collected from the multiple sample percolation experiments, this paper compares the performance of two mathematical models for predicting solute transport, the advective-dispersion model with a reaction term (ADR), and a two-region preferential flow model (TRM) suitable for modelling nonequilibrium transport. These results have implications for modelling solute transport and predicting nutrient loading on a larger scale. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical determinants of capital structure

We analyze the influence of time-, firm-, industry- and country-level determinants of capital structure. First, we apply hierarchical linear modeling in order to assess the relative importance of those levels. We find that time and firm levels explain 78% of firm leverage. Second, we include random intercepts and random coefficients in order to analyze the direct and indirect influences of firm/industry/country characteristics on firm leverage. We document several important indirect influences of variables at industry and country-levels on firm determinants of leverage, as well as several structural differences in the financial behavior between firms of developed and emerging countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.