Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

1. Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although some factors probably have negligible effects compared to others, their relative effects are largely unknown. 2. We introduce a general "virtual ecologist" framework to study the relative importance of factors involved in the construction of species distribution models. 3. We illustrate the framework by examining the relative importance of five key factors-a missing covariate, spatial autocorrelation due to a dispersal process in presences/absences, sample size, sampling design and modeling technique-in a real study framework based on plants in a mountain landscape at regional scale, and show that, for the parameter values considered here, most of the variation in prediction accuracy is due to sample size and modeling technique. Contrary to repeatedly reported concerns, spatial autocorrelation has only comparatively small effects. 4. This study shows the importance of using a nested statistical framework to evaluate the relative effects of factors that may affect species distribution models.

Effect of n-3 fatty acids on markers of brain injury and incidence of sepsis-associated delirium in septic patients.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding immunomodulatory effects of parenteral n-3 fatty acids in sepsis are conflicting. In this study, the effect of administration of parenteral n-3 fatty acids on markers of brain injury, incidence of sepsis-associated delirium, and inflammatory mediators in septic patients was investigated. METHODS: Fifty patients with sepsis were randomized to receive either 2 ml/kg/day of a lipid emulsion containing highly refined fish oil (equivalent to n-3 fatty acids 0.12 mg/kg/day) during 7 days after admission to the intensive care unit or standard treatment. Markers of brain injury and inflammatory mediators were measured on days 1, 2, 3 and 7. Assessment for sepsis-associated delirium was performed daily. The primary outcome was the difference in S-100β from baseline to peak level between both the intervention and the control group, compared by t-test. Changes of all markers over time were explored in both groups, fitting a generalized estimating equations model. RESULTS: Mean difference in change of S-100β from baseline to peak level was 0.34 (95% CI: -0.18-0.85) between the intervention and control group, respectively (P = 0.19). We found no difference in plasma levels of S-100β, neuron-specific enolase, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, and C-reactive protein between groups over time. Incidence of sepsis-associated delirium was 75% in the intervention and 71% in the control groups (risk difference 4%, 95% CI -24-31%, P = 0.796). CONCLUSION: Administration of n-3 fatty acids did not affect markers of brain injury, incidence of sepsis-associated delirium, and inflammatory mediators in septic patients.

The Effect of Adding CO2 to Hypoxic Inspired Gas on Cerebral Blood Flow Velocity and Breathing during Incremental Exercise

Hypoxia increases the ventilatory response to exercise, which leads to hyperventilation-induced hypocapnia and subsequent reduction in cerebral blood flow (CBF). We studied the effects of adding CO2 to a hypoxic inspired gas on CBF during heavy exercise in an altitude naïve population. We hypothesized that augmented inspired CO2 and hypoxia would exert synergistic effects on increasing CBF during exercise, which would improve exercise capacity compared to hypocapnic hypoxia. We also examined the responsiveness of CO2 and O2 chemoreception on the regulation ventilation (E) during incremental exercise. We measured middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAv; index of CBF), E, end-tidal PCO2, respiratory compensation threshold (RC) and ventilatory response to exercise (E slope) in ten healthy men during incremental cycling to exhaustion in normoxia and hypoxia (FIO2 = 0.10) with and without augmenting the fraction of inspired CO2 (FICO2). During exercise in normoxia, augmenting FICO2 elevated MCAv throughout exercise and lowered both RC onset andE slope below RC (P<0.05). In hypoxia, MCAv and E slope below RC during exercise were elevated, while the onset of RC occurred at lower exercise intensity (P<0.05). Augmenting FICO2 in hypoxia increased E at RC (P<0.05) but no difference was observed in RC onset, MCAv, or E slope below RC (P>0.05). The E slope above RC was unchanged with either hypoxia or augmented FICO2 (P>0.05). We found augmenting FICO2 increased CBF during sub-maximal exercise in normoxia, but not in hypoxia, indicating that the 'normal' cerebrovascular response to hypercapnia is blunted during exercise in hypoxia, possibly due to an exhaustion of cerebral vasodilatory reserve. This finding may explain the lack of improvement of exercise capacity in hypoxia with augmented CO2. Our data further indicate that, during exercise below RC, chemoreception is responsive, while above RC the ventilatory response to CO2 is blunted.

The Effect of Switching Ranibizumab to Aflibercept in Refractory Cases of Macular Edema Secondary to Ischemic Central Vein Occlusion.

Background: Macular edema resulting from central retinal vein occlusion is effectively treated with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections. However, some patients need monthly retreatment and still show frequent recurrences. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the visual and anatomic outcomes of refractory macular edema resulting from ischemic central retinal vein occlusion in patients switched from ranibizumab to aflibercept intravitreal injections. Patients and Methods: We describe a retrospective series of patients followed in the Medical Retina Unit of the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital for macular edema due to ischemic central retinal vein occlusion, refractory to monthly retreatment with ranibizumab, and changed to aflibercept. Refractory macular edema was defined as persistence of any fluid at each visit one month after last injection during at least 6 months. All patients had to have undergone pan-retinal laser scan. Results: Six patients were identified, one of whom had a very short-term follow-up (excluded from statistics). Mean age was 57 ± 12 years. The mean changes in visual acuity and central macular thickness from baseline to switch were + 20.6 ± 20.3 ETDRS letters and - 316.4 ± 276.6 µm, respectively. The additional changes from before to after the switch were + 9.2 ± 9.5 ETDRS letters and - 248.0 ± 248.7 µm, respectively. The injection intervals could often be lengthened after the switch. Conclusions: Intravitreal aflibercept seems to be a promising alternative treatment for macular edema refractory to ranibizumab in ischemic central retinal vein occlusion.

Can we translate vitamin D immunomodulating effect on innate and adaptive immunity to vaccine response?

Vitamin D (VitD), which is well known for its classic role in the maintenance of bone mineral density, has now become increasingly studied for its extra-skeletal roles. It has an important influence on the body's immune system and modulates both innate and adaptive immunity and regulates the inflammatory cascade. In this review our aim was to describe how VitD might influence immune responsiveness and its potential modulating role in vaccine immunogenicity. In the first instance, we consider the literature that may provide molecular and genetic support to the idea that VitD status may be related to innate and/or adaptive immune response with a particular focus on vaccine immunogenicity and then discuss observational studies and controlled trials of VitD supplementation conducted in humans. Finally, we conclude with some knowledge gaps surrounding VitD and vaccine response, and that it is still premature to recommend "booster" of VitD at vaccination time to enhance vaccine response.

Up-regulated 14-3-3β and 14-3-3ζ proteins in prefrontal cortex of subjects with schizophrenia: effect of psychotropic treatment.

14-3-3 is a family of conserved regulatory proteins that bind to a multitude of functionally diverse signalling proteins. Various genetic studies and gene expression and proteomic analyses have involved 14-3-3 proteins in schizophrenia (SZ). On the other hand, studies about the status of these proteins in major depressive disorder (MD) are still missing. Immunoreactivity values of cytosolic 14-3-3β and 14-3-3ζ proteins were evaluated by Western blot in prefrontal cortex (PFC) of subjects with schizophrenia (SZ; n=22), subjects with major depressive disorder (MD; n=21) and age-, gender- and postmortem delay-matched control subjects (n=52). The modulation of 14-3-3β and 14-3-3ζ proteins by psychotropic medication was also assessed. The analysis of both proteins in SZ subjects with respect to matched control subjects showed increased 14-3-3β (Δ=33±10%, p<0.05) and 14-3-3ζ (Δ=29±6%, p<0.05) immunoreactivity in antipsychotic-free but not in antipsychotic-treated SZ subjects. Immunoreactivity values of 14-3-3β and 14-3-3ζ were not altered in MD subjects. These results show the specific up-regulation of 14-3-3β and 14-3-3ζ proteins in PFC of SZ subjects and suggest a possible down-regulation of both proteins by antipsychotic treatment.

Representation of Sound Objects within Early-Stage Auditory Areas: A Repetition Effect Study Using 7T fMRI.

Environmental sounds are highly complex stimuli whose recognition depends on the interaction of top-down and bottom-up processes in the brain. Their semantic representations were shown to yield repetition suppression effects, i. e. a decrease in activity during exposure to a sound that is perceived as belonging to the same source as a preceding sound. Making use of the high spatial resolution of 7T fMRI we have investigated the representations of sound objects within early-stage auditory areas on the supratemporal plane. The primary auditory cortex was identified by means of tonotopic mapping and the non-primary areas by comparison with previous histological studies. Repeated presentations of different exemplars of the same sound source, as compared to the presentation of different sound sources, yielded significant repetition suppression effects within a subset of early-stage areas. This effect was found within the right hemisphere in primary areas A1 and R as well as two non-primary areas on the antero-medial part of the planum temporale, and within the left hemisphere in A1 and a non-primary area on the medial part of Heschl's gyrus. Thus, several, but not all early-stage auditory areas encode the meaning of environmental sounds.

Effect Estimation of an Innovative Nursing Intervention to Improve Delirium among Home-Dwelling Older Adults: A Randomized Controlled Pilot Trial.

AIMS: Estimating the effect of a nursing intervention in home-dwelling older adults on the occurrence and course of delirium and concomitant cognitive and functional impairment. METHODS: A randomized clinical pilot trial using a before/after design was conducted with older patients discharged from hospital who had a medical prescription to receive home care. A total of 51 patients were randomized into the experimental group (EG) and 52 patients into the control group (CG). Besides usual home care, nursing interventions were offered by a geriatric nurse specialist to the EG at 48 h, 72 h, 7 days, 14 days, and 21 days after discharge. All patients were monitored for symptoms of delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method. Cognitive and functional statuses were measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Katz and Lawton Index. RESULTS: No statistical differences with regard to symptoms of delirium (p = 0.085), cognitive impairment (p = 0.151), and functional status (p = 0.235) were found between the EG and CG at study entry and at 1 month. After adjustment, statistical differences were found in favor of the EG for symptoms of delirium (p = 0.046), cognitive impairment (p = 0.015), and functional status (p = 0.033). CONCLUSION: Nursing interventions to detect delirium at home are feasible and accepted. The nursing interventions produced a promising effect to improve delirium.

The effect of dose on the antimalarial efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine: a systematic review and pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine is the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy for malaria, although treatment failures occur in some regions. We investigated the effect of dosing strategy on efficacy in a pooled analysis from trials done in a wide range of malaria-endemic settings. METHODS: We searched PubMed for clinical trials that enrolled and treated patients with artemether-lumefantrine and were published from 1960 to December, 2012. We merged individual patient data from these trials by use of standardised methods. The primary endpoint was the PCR-adjusted risk of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence by day 28. Secondary endpoints consisted of the PCR-adjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, PCR-unadjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, early parasite clearance, and gametocyte carriage. Risk factors for PCR-adjusted recrudescence were identified using Cox's regression model with frailty shared across the study sites. FINDINGS: We included 61 studies done between January, 1998, and December, 2012, and included 14 327 patients in our analyses. The PCR-adjusted therapeutic efficacy was 97·6% (95% CI 97·4-97·9) at day 28 and 96·0% (95·6-96·5) at day 42. After controlling for age and parasitaemia, patients prescribed a higher dose of artemether had a lower risk of having parasitaemia on day 1 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·86-0·99 for every 1 mg/kg increase in daily artemether dose; p=0·024), but not on day 2 (p=0·69) or day 3 (0·087). In Asia, children weighing 10-15 kg who received a total lumefantrine dose less than 60 mg/kg had the lowest PCR-adjusted efficacy (91·7%, 95% CI 86·5-96·9). In Africa, the risk of treatment failure was greatest in malnourished children aged 1-3 years (PCR-adjusted efficacy 94·3%, 95% CI 92·3-96·3). A higher artemether dose was associated with a lower gametocyte presence within 14 days of treatment (adjusted OR 0·92, 95% CI 0·85-0·99; p=0·037 for every 1 mg/kg increase in total artemether dose). INTERPRETATION: The recommended dose of artemether-lumefantrine provides reliable efficacy in most patients with uncomplicated malaria. However, therapeutic efficacy was lowest in young children from Asia and young underweight children from Africa; a higher dose regimen should be assessed in these groups. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of the MC1R gene on sexual dimorphism in melanin-based colorations.

Variants of the melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) gene result in abrupt, naturally selected colour morphs. These genetic variants may differentially affect sexual dimorphism if one morph is naturally selected in the two sexes but another morph is naturally or sexually selected only in one of the two sexes (e.g. to confer camouflage in reproductive females or confer mating advantage in males). Therefore, the balance between natural and sexual selections can differ between MC1R variants, as suggest studies showing interspecific correlations between sexual dimorphism and the rate of nonsynonymous vs. synonymous amino acid substitutions at the MC1R. Surprisingly, how MC1R is related to within-species sexual dimorphism, and thereby to sex-specific selection, has not yet been investigated. We tackled this issue in the barn owl (Tyto alba), a species showing pronounced variation in the degree of reddish pheomelanin-based coloration and in the number and size of black feather spots. We found that a valine (V)-to-isoleucine (I) substitution at position 126 explains up to 30% of the variation in the three melanin-based colour traits and in feather melanin content. Interestingly, MC1R genotypes also differed in the degree of sexual colour dimorphism, with individuals homozygous for the II MC1R variant being 2 times redder and 2.5 times less sexually dimorphic than homozygous individuals for the VV MC1R variant. These findings support that MC1R interacts with the expression of sexual dimorphism and suggest that a gene with major phenotypic effects and weakly influenced by variation in body condition can participate in sex-specific selection processes.

Protective behavioral strategies and future drinking behaviors: Effect of drinking intentions.

Alcohol use is common among United States and Swedish high school students and is related to negative consequences. Whereas drinking intentions are associated with future drinking behaviors, the use of protective behavioral strategies (PBS) is associated with decreased alcohol-related harm among young adults. The interactive effect of PBS and drinking intentions in predicting alcohol outcomes has not been examined. Further, because most PBS studies have been conducted among U.S. college students, PBS research among other populations is needed. The aims of this study were to evaluate longitudinally (a) the relationships between drinking intentions, PBS and alcohol outcomes, and (b) the moderating roles of drinking intentions and country in these relationships among United States and Swedish high school drinkers. Data were collected at baseline, 6- and 12-month follow-ups on 901 Swedish and 288 U.S. high school drinkers. Drinking intentions were associated with more alcohol use and consequences, and use of certain PBS was related to fewer alcohol-related consequences over time. Additionally, the negative prospective relationship between use of PBS and alcohol use, but not alcohol-related consequences, was moderated by intentions, such that the relationship was stronger among participants endorsing high drinking intentions. Country did not moderate these relationships. These results provide initial support for the generalizability of PBS college research to United States and Swedish high school students and suggest that interventions targeting the use of PBS may be most effective among high school drinkers endorsing high drinking intentions. (PsycINFO Database Record

Effect of biogeographic history on population vulnerability in European amphibians.

The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental-scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta-analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post-glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post-glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists.

In vivo effect of flucloxacillin in experimental endocarditis caused by mecC-positive staphylococcus aureus showing temperature-dependent susceptibility in vitro.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carrying the mecC gene (mecC-MRSA) exhibited at 37°C MICs of oxacillin close to those of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA). We investigated whether at this temperature, mecC-MRSA strains respond to flucloxacillin treatment like MSSA strains, using a rat model of endocarditis. Flucloxacillin (human-like kinetics of 2 g intravenously every 6 h) cured 80 to 100% of aortic vegetations infected with five different mecC-MRSA strains. These results suggest that mecC-MRSA infections may successfully respond to treatment with β-lactams.

The Effect of Two Speed Endurance Training Regimes on Performance of Soccer Players.

In order to better understand the specificity of training adaptations, we compared the effects of two different anaerobic training regimes on various types of soccer-related exercise performances. During the last 3 weeks of the competitive season, thirteen young male professional soccer players (age 18.5±1 yr, height 179.5±6.5 cm, body mass 74.3±6.5 kg) reduced the training volume by ~20% and replaced their habitual fitness conditioning work with either speed endurance production (SEP; n = 6) or speed endurance maintenance (SEM; n = 7) training, three times per wk. SEP training consisted of 6-8 reps of 20-s all-out running bouts followed by 2 min of passive recovery, whereas SEM training was characterized by 6-8 x 20-s all-out efforts interspersed with 40 s of passive recovery. SEP training reduced (p<0.01) the total time in a repeated sprint ability test (RSAt) by 2.5%. SEM training improved the 200-m sprint performance (from 26.59±0.70 to 26.02±0.62 s, p<0.01) and had a likely beneficial impact on the percentage decrement score of the RSA test (from 4.07±1.28 to 3.55±1.01%) but induced a very likely impairment in RSAt (from 83.81±2.37 to 84.65±2.27 s). The distance covered in the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery test level 2 was 10.1% (p<0.001) and 3.8% (p<0.05) higher after SEP and SEM training, respectively, with possibly greater improvements following SEP compared to SEM. No differences were observed in the 20- and 40-m sprint performances. In conclusion, these two training strategies target different determinants of soccer-related physical performance. SEP improved repeated sprint and high-intensity intermittent exercise performance, whereas SEM increased muscles' ability to maximize fatigue tolerance and maintain speed development during both repeated all-out and continuous short-duration maximal exercises. These results provide new insight into the precise nature of a stimulus necessary to improve specific types of athletic performance in trained young soccer players.

A Population-Based Model to Consider the Effect of Seasonal Variation on Serum 25(OH)D and Vitamin D Status.

Background. We elaborated a model that predicts the centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution taking into account seasonal variation. Methods. Data from two Swiss population-based studies were used to generate (CoLaus) and validate (Bus Santé) the model. Serum 25(OH)D was measured by ultra high pressure LC-MS/MS and immunoassay. Linear regression models on square-root transformed 25(OH)D values were used to predict centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution. Distribution functions of the observations from the replication set predicted with the model were inspected to assess replication. Results. Overall, 4,912 and 2,537 Caucasians were included in original and replication sets, respectively. Mean (SD) 25(OH)D, age, BMI, and % of men were 47.5 (22.1) nmol/L, 49.8 (8.5) years, 25.6 (4.1) kg/m(2), and 49.3% in the original study. The best model included gender, BMI, and sin-cos functions of measurement day. Sex- and BMI-specific 25(OH)D centile curves as a function of measurement date were generated. The model estimates any centile of the 25(OH)D distribution for given values of sex, BMI, and date and the quantile corresponding to a 25(OH)D measurement. Conclusions. We generated and validated centile curves of 25(OH)D in the general adult Caucasian population. These curves can help rank vitamin D centile independently of when 25(OH)D is measured.