A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Prenatal Vitamin D deficiency induces an early and more severe experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in the second generation

In a previous study, we demonstrated that mouse adult F(1) offspring, exposed to a vitamin d deficiency during pregnancy, developed a less severe and delayed Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis (EAE), when compared with control offspring. We then wondered whether a similar response was observed in the subsequent generation. To answer this question, we assessed F(2) females whose F(1) parents (males or females) were vitamin d-deprived when developing in the uterus of F(0) females. Unexpectedly, we observed that the vitamin d deficiency affecting the F(0) pregnant mice induced a precocious and more severe EAE in the F(2) generation. This paradoxical finding led us to assess its implications for the epidemiology of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in humans. Using the REFGENSEP database for MS trios (the patient and his/her parents), we collected the parents' dates of birth and assessed a potential season of birth effect that could potentially be indicative of the vitamin d status of the pregnant grandmothers. A trend for a reduced number of births in the Fall for the parents of MS patients was observed but statistical significance was not reached. Further well powered studies are warranted to validate the latter finding.

Pilot study of an individualised early post partum intervention to increase physical activity in women with previous gestational diabetes

Background: Whilst the benefits of physical activity in preventing progression from impaired glucose tolerance to overt diabetes in older adults are well recognised, it is not clear which strategies may prevent progression to overt diabetes in women with recent gestational diabetes. We sought to devise and pilot test a convenient, home based exercise program with telephone support, suited to the early post partum period. Twenty eight women with recent gestational diabetes were enrolled six weeks post partum into a 12 week randomised controlled trial of Usual Care ("UC" Controls (n= 13)) vs. Supported Care ("SC" individualised exercise program with regular telephone support (n= 15)). Findings: Baseline characteristics for the whole cohort at six weeks post partum (Mean ± SD) were Age 33 ± 4 years, Weight 80 ± 20 kg and Body Mass Index (BMI) 30.0 ± 9.7 kg / m2. The primary outcome, planned physical activity, increased by Median (Range) 60 (0-540) mins/wk in the SC group vs. 0 (0-580) mins/wk in the UC group (p = 0.234, Mann Whitney U test). The change in planned physical activity predominantly comprised planned walking. Body weight, BMI, waist circumference, % body fat (measured by bioimpedance), fasting glucose and insulin did not change significantly over time in either group. Conclusions: The intervention designed to increase physical activity in post partum women with previous gestational diabetes was feasible. However, no evidence to suggest that this type of program provides any measurable improvement in metabolic or biometric parameters over a three month post partum follow up was observed.

Early evidence for direct and indirect effects of the infant rotavirus vaccine program in Queensland

Objective: To assess the impact of introducing a publicly funded infant rotavirus vaccination program on disease notifications and on laboratory testing and results. Design and setting: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data (rotavirus notifications [2006–2008] and laboratory rotavirus testing data from Queensland Health laboratories [2000–2008]) to monitor rotavirus trends before and after the introduction of a publicly funded infant rotavirus vaccination program in Queensland in July 2007. Main outcome measures: Age group-specific rotavirus notification trends; number of rotavirus tests performed and the proportion positive. Results: In the less than 2 years age group, rotavirus notifications declined by 53% (2007) and 65% (2008); the number of laboratory tests performed declined by 3% (2007) and 15% (2008); and the proportion of tests positive declined by 45% (2007) and 43% (2008) compared with data collected before introduction of the vaccination program. An indirect effect of infant vaccination was seen: notifications and the proportion of tests positive for rotavirus declined in older age groups as well. Conclusions: The publicly funded rotavirus vaccination program in Queensland is having an early impact, direct and indirect, on rotavirus disease as assessed using routinely collected data. Further observational studies are required to assess vaccine effectiveness. Parents and immunisation providers should ensure that all Australian children receive the recommended rotavirus vaccine doses in the required timeframe.

Thinking Critically in the Land of Princesses and Giants : The Affordances and Challenges of Critical Approaches in the Early Years

During the last four decades, educators have created a range of critical literacy approaches for different contexts, including compulsory schooling (Luke & Woods, 2009) and second language education (Luke & Dooley, 2011). Despite inspirational examples of critical work with young students (e.g., O’Brien, 1994; Vasquez, 1994), Comber (2012) laments the persistent myth that critical literacy is not viable in the early years. Assumptions about childhood innocence and the priorities of the back-to-basics movement seem to limit the possibilities for early years literacy teaching and learning. Yet, teachers of young students need not face an either/or choice between the basic and critical dimensions of literacy. Systematic ways of treating literacy in all its complexity exist. We argue that the integrative imperative is especially important in schools that are under pressure to improve technical literacy outcomes. In this chapter, we document how critical literacy was addressed in a fairytales unit taught to 4.5 - 5.5 year olds in a high diversity, high poverty Australian school. We analyze the affordances and challenges of different approaches to critical literacy, concluding they are complementary rather than competing sources of possibility. Furthermore, we make the case for turning familiar classroom activities to critical ends.

Embedding information and communication technologies in the early childhood classroom

New technologies and the pace of change in modern society mean changes for classroom teaching and learning. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) feature in everyday life and provide ample opportunities for enhancing classroom programs. This article outlines how ICTs complement curriculum implementation in one year two classroom. It suggests practical strategies demonstrating how teachers can make ICTs work for them and progressively teach children how to make ICTs work for them.

Democratic participation in a globalised World : immigrants in Australia in the early 21st century

This study considers patterns of political participation in Australia in the early 21st Century, using recent data from the Australian Election Study. The paper reassesses how Australia fits within broader patterns of political participation and investigates major predictors of participation in Australia to see how these have or have not changed in a globalised era that has brought new challenges. Factors considered include socio-demographic variables, such as education, age, gender, birthplace and place of residence and also attitudinal orientations towards politics, such as political interest, efficacy and trust. The paper pays particular attention to those who have moved to Australia from other countries. One of the most important findings is that immigrants show little or no sign of any participatory disadvantage and indeed tend to participate more than the Australian-born in some modes of participation, such as campaign activities. The analysis also identifies a clear participatory divide within a number of socio-demographic groups in use of the internet for gaining election information.

A qualitative think aloud study of the early Neo-Piagetian stages of reasoning in novice programmers

Recent research indicates that some of the difficulties faced by novice programmers are manifested very early in their learning. In this paper, we present data from think aloud studies that demonstrate the nature of those difficulties. In the think alouds, novices were required to complete short programming tasks which involved either hand executing ("tracing") a short piece of code, or writing a single sentence describing the purpose of the code. We interpret our think aloud data within a neo-Piagetian framework, demonstrating that some novices reason at the sensorimotor and preoperational stages, not at the higher concrete operational stage at which most instruction is implicitly targeted.

Evaluation of the "reconceptualising early mathematics learning" project

The Pattern and Structure Mathematics Awareness Project (PASMAP) has investigated the development of patterning and early algebraic reasoning among 4 to 8 year olds over a series of related studies. We assert that an awareness of mathematical pattern and structure enables mathematical thinking and simple forms of generalisation from an early age. The project aims to promote a strong foundation for mathematical development by focusing on critical, underlying features of mathematics learning. This paper provides an overview of key aspects of the assessment and intervention, and analyses of the impact of PASMAP on students’ representation, abstraction and generalisation of mathematical ideas. A purposive sample of four large primary schools, two in Sydney and two in Brisbane, representing 316 students from diverse socio-economic and cultural contexts, participated in the evaluation throughout the 2009 school year and a follow-up assessment in 2010. Two different mathematics programs were implemented: in each school, two Kindergarten teachers implemented the PASMAP and another two implemented their regular program. The study shows that both groups of students made substantial gains on the ‘I Can Do Maths’ assessment and a Pattern and Structure Assessment (PASA) interview, but highly significant differences were found on the latter with PASMAP students outperforming the regular group on PASA scores. Qualitative analysis of students’ responses for structural development showed increased levels for the PASMAP students; those categorised as low ability developed improved structural responses over a relatively short period of time.

Blood cultures for evaluation of early postoperative fever after femoral neck fracture surgery

PURPOSE. To evaluate the utility of blood cultures in the assessment of early postoperative fever in hip fracture patients with no other indicators of sepsis. METHODS. 101 blood cultures were drawn on postoperative days 0 to 5 to investigate 84 febrile episodes in 31 women and 30 men (mean age, 80 years) whose body temperature measured via the tympanic route was ≥38ºC. Culture results of these 61 patients were divided into culture-positive and culture-negative groups for comparison. RESULTS. Of the 101 blood cultures, only 2 were positive: one was obtained 5 days after dynamic hip screw fixation, and the other 4 days after hemiarthroplasty. Both blood cultures grew coagulase-negative staphylococcal species, which were deemed to be skin contaminants not requiring change of patient management. 44 of these patients were treated with oral or intravenous antibiotics for a period of time. CONCLUSION. The risk of bacteraemia in patients with postoperative fever but no other symptoms of infection is low. Routine procurement of blood cultures in such patients is ineffective and of limited utility.

To separate or not to separate? Parental decision-making regarding the separation of twins in the early years of schooling

In recent times concerns about possible adverse effects of early separation and advocacy for individual rights have resulted in a movement away from organizational level policies about the separation of twin children as they enter school. Instead, individualized approaches that focus on the twin children’s characteristics and family perspectives have been proposed. This study, conducted in Australia where all but a few families had choice about the class placement of their twin children, questioned parents (N = 156) about their placement decisions. Results indicated that most parents opted for placement together in the early years of schooling. The choice to separate twins at school entry was associated with parent identification of risk in the twin relationship, while being kept together was associated with parent identification of absence of such risk. The findings are discussed in light of the current evidence against separation, and suggest that parent choices regarding the separation of twin children in the early years are informative to educational policy and practice.

Modeling as a means for making powerful ideas accessible to children at an early age

The SimCalc Vision and Contributions Advances in Mathematics Education 2013, pp 419-436 Modeling as a Means for Making Powerful Ideas Accessible to Children at an Early Age Richard Lesh, Lyn English, Serife Sevis, Chanda Riggs … show all 4 hide » Look Inside » Get Access Abstract In modern societies in the 21st century, significant changes have been occurring in the kinds of “mathematical thinking” that are needed outside of school. Even in the case of primary school children (grades K-2), children not only encounter situations where numbers refer to sets of discrete objects that can be counted. Numbers also are used to describe situations that involve continuous quantities (inches, feet, pounds, etc.), signed quantities, quantities that have both magnitude and direction, locations (coordinates, or ordinal quantities), transformations (actions), accumulating quantities, continually changing quantities, and other kinds of mathematical objects. Furthermore, if we ask, what kind of situations can children use numbers to describe? rather than restricting attention to situations where children should be able to calculate correctly, then this study shows that average ability children in grades K-2 are (and need to be) able to productively mathematize situations that involve far more than simple counts. Similarly, whereas nearly the entire K-16 mathematics curriculum is restricted to situations that can be mathematized using a single input-output rule going in one direction, even the lives of primary school children are filled with situations that involve several interacting actions—and which involve feedback loops, second-order effects, and issues such as maximization, minimization, or stabilizations (which, many years ago, needed to be postponed until students had been introduced to calculus). …This brief paper demonstrates that, if children’s stories are used to introduce simulations of “real life” problem solving situations, then average ability primary school children are quite capable of dealing productively with 60-minute problems that involve (a) many kinds of quantities in addition to “counts,” (b) integrated collections of concepts associated with a variety of textbook topic areas, (c) interactions among several different actors, and (d) issues such as maximization, minimization, and stabilization.