859 resultados para conditional expected utility
Resumo:
Esophageal and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) adenocarcinoma is rapidly increasing disease with a pathophysiology connected to oxidative stress. Exact pre-treatment clinical staging is essential for optimal care of this lethal malignancy. The cost-effectiviness of treatment is increasingly important. We measured oxidative metabolism in the distal and proximal esophagus by myeloperoxidase activity (MPA), glutathione content (GSH), and superoxide dismutase (SOD) in 20 patients operated on with Nissen fundoplication and 9 controls during a 4-year follow-up. Further, we assessed the oxidative damage of DNA by 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) in esophageal samples of subjects (13 Barrett s metaplasia, 6 Barrett s esophagus with high-grade dysplasia, 18 adenocarcinoma of the distal esophagus/GEJ, and 14 normal controls). We estimated the accuracy (42 patients) and preoperative prognostic value (55 patients) of PET compared with computed tomography (CT) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) in patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagus/GEJ. Finally, we clarified the specialty-related costs and the utility of either radical (30 patients) or palliative (23 patients) treatment of esophageal/GEJ carcinoma by the 15 D health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) questionnaire and the survival rate. The cost-utility of radical treatment of esophageal/GEJ carcinoma was investigated using a decision tree analysis model comparing radical, palliative, and hypothetical new treatment. We found elevated oxidative stress ( measured by MPA) and decreased antioxidant defense (measured by GSH) after antireflux surgery. This indicates that antireflux surgery is not a perfect solution for oxidative stress of the esophageal mucosa. Elevated oxidative stress in turn may partly explain why adenocarcinoma of the distal esophagus is found even after successful fundoplication. In GERD patients, proximal esophageal mucosal anti-oxidative defense seems to be defective before and even years after successful antireflux surgery. In addition, antireflux surgery apparently does not change the level of oxidative stress in the proximal esophagus, suggesting that defective mucosal anti-oxidative capacity plays a role in development of oxidative damage to the esophageal mucosa in GERD. In the malignant transformation of Barrett s esophagus an important component appears to be oxidative stress. DNA damage may be mediated by 8-OHdG, which we found to be increased in Barrett s epithelium and in high-grade dysplasia as well as in adenocarcinoma of the esophagus/GEJ compared with controls. The entire esophagus of Barrett s patients suffers from increased oxidative stress ( measured by 8-OhdG). PET is a useful tool in the staging and prognostication of adenocarcinoma of the esophagus/GEJ detecting organ metastases better than CT, although its accuracy in staging of paratumoral and distant lymph nodes is limited. Radical surgery for esophageal/GEJ carcinoma provides the greatest benefit in terms of survival, and its cost-utility appears to be the best of currently available treatments.
Resumo:
We consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multineuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data-mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns, which occur often enough in the data. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of such repeating patterns. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that not only includes models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a probabilistic model that captures the counting process and use this to derive a test of significance for rejecting such a compound null hypothesis. The structure of our null hypothesis also allows us to rank-order different significant patterns. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach using spike trains generated with a simulator.
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Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) have been employed in many computer vision tasks with great success due to their robustness in feature learning. One of the advantages of DCNNs is their representation robustness to object locations, which is useful for object recognition tasks. However, this also discards spatial information, which is useful when dealing with topological information of the image (e.g. scene labeling, face recognition). In this paper, we propose a deeper and wider network architecture to tackle the scene labeling task. The depth is achieved by incorporating predictions from multiple early layers of the DCNN. The width is achieved by combining multiple outputs of the network. We then further refine the parsing task by adopting graphical models (GMs) as a post-processing step to incorporate spatial and contextual information into the network. The new strategy for a deeper, wider convolutional network coupled with graphical models has shown promising results on the PASCAL-Context dataset.
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A better performing product code vector quantization (VQ) method is proposed for coding the line spectrum frequency (LSF) parameters; the method is referred to as sequential split vector quantization (SeSVQ). The split sub-vectors of the full LSF vector are quantized in sequence and thus uses conditional distribution derived from the previous quantized sub-vectors. Unlike the traditional split vector quantization (SVQ) method, SeSVQ exploits the inter sub-vector correlation and thus provides improved rate-distortion performance, but at the expense of higher memory. We investigate the quantization performance of SeSVQ over traditional SVQ and transform domain split VQ (TrSVQ) methods. Compared to SVQ, SeSVQ saves 1 bit and nearly 3 bits, for telephone-band and wide-band speech coding applications respectively.
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A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.
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The structure of the mitotic chromosomes of Allium cepa has been elucidated by controlling the temperature and time of exposure of fresh roots to stain fixatives. The details seen in material stained in N HCl-orcein for 8 min. at 60° C. and squashed after varying intervals of storage at room temperature were essentially similar to pictures obtained with 1% aceto-orcein and 1% aceto-orcein-N HCl (10:1) under identical conditions of handling. The chromosomes appear quadri-partite at metaphase and bi-partite at anaphase. A rare instance of the precocious assumption of a quadri-partite condition by two anaphase chromosomes is illustrated. Caduceus coiling of chromonemata was seen in chromosome bridges also. Chromosomes have material easily dissociable from the chromonemata and their removal does not affect the structural integrity of the chromosome.
Resumo:
The move towards IT outsourcing is the first step towards an environment where compute infrastructure is treated as a service. In utility computing this IT service has to honor Service Level Agreements (SLA) in order to meet the desired Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees. Such an environment requires reliable services in order to maximize the utilization of the resources and to decrease the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Such reliability cannot come at the cost of resource duplication, since it increases the TCO of the data center and hence the cost per compute unit. We, in this paper, look into aspects of projecting impact of hardware failures on the SLAs and techniques required to take proactive recovery steps in case of a predicted failure. By maintaining health vectors of all hardware and system resources, we predict the failure probability of resources based on observed hardware errors/failure events, at runtime. This inturn influences an availability aware middleware to take proactive action (even before the application is affected in case the system and the application have low recoverability). The proposed framework has been prototyped on a system running HP-UX. Our offline analysis of the prediction system on hardware error logs indicate no more than 10% false positives. This work to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind to perform an end-to-end analysis of the impact of a hardware fault on application SLAs, in a live system.
Resumo:
The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Background:Bacterial non-coding small RNAs (sRNAs) have attracted considerable attention due to their ubiquitous nature and contribution to numerous cellular processes including survival, adaptation and pathogenesis. Existing computational approaches for identifying bacterial sRNAs demonstrate varying levels of success and there remains considerable room for improvement. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we have proposed a transcriptional signal-based computational method to identify intergenic sRNA transcriptional units (TUs) in completely sequenced bacterial genomes. Our sRNAscanner tool uses position weight matrices derived from experimentally defined E. coli K-12 MG1655 sRNA promoter and rho-independent terminator signals to identify intergenic sRNA TUs through sliding window based genome scans. Analysis of genomes representative of twelve species suggested that sRNAscanner demonstrated equivalent sensitivity to sRNAPredict2, the best performing bioinformatics tool available presently. However, each algorithm yielded substantial numbers of known and uncharacterized hits that were unique to one or the other tool only. sRNAscanner identified 118 novel putative intergenic sRNA genes in Salmonella enterica Typhimurium LT2, none of which were flagged by sRNAPredict2. Candidate sRNA locations were compared with available deep sequencing libraries derived from Hfq-co-immunoprecipitated RNA purified from a second Typhimurium strain (Sittka et al. (2008) PLoS Genetics 4: e1000163). Sixteen potential novel sRNAs computationally predicted and detected in deep sequencing libraries were selected for experimental validation by Northern analysis using total RNA isolated from bacteria grown under eleven different growth conditions. RNA bands of expected sizes were detected in Northern blots for six of the examined candidates. Furthermore, the 5'-ends of these six Northern-supported sRNA candidates were successfully mapped using 5'-RACE analysis. Conclusions/Significance: We have developed, computationally examined and experimentally validated the sRNAscanner algorithm. Data derived from this study has successfully identified six novel S. Typhimurium sRNA genes. In addition, the computational specificity analysis we have undertaken suggests that similar to 40% of sRNAscanner hits with high cumulative sum of scores represent genuine, undiscovered sRNA genes. Collectively, these data strongly support the utility of sRNAscanner and offer a glimpse of its potential to reveal large numbers of sRNA genes that have to date defied identification. sRNAscanner is available from: http://bicmku.in:8081/sRNAscanner or http://cluster.physics.iisc.ernet.in/sRNAscanner/.
Resumo:
The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.
Resumo:
Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.