Monitoring well-being and changing environmental conditions in coastal communities: development of an assessment method

The intersection of social and environmental forces is complex in coastal communities. The well-being of a coastal community is caught up in the health of its environment, the stability of its economy, the provision of services to its residents, and a multitude of other factors. With this in mind, the project investigators sought to develop an approach that would enable researchers to measure these social and environmental interactions. The concept of well-being proved extremely useful for this purpose. Using the Gulf of Mexico as a regional case study, the research team developed a set of composite indicators to be used for monitoring well-being at the county-level. The indicators selected for the study were: Social Connectedness, Economic Security, Basic Needs, Health, Access to Social Services, Education, Safety, Governance, and Environmental Condition. For each of the 37 sample counties included in the study region, investigators collected and consolidated existing, secondary data representing multiple aspects of objective well-being. To conduct a longitudinal assessment of changing wellbeing and environmental conditions, data were collected for the period of 2000 to 2010. The team focused on the Gulf of Mexico because the development of a baseline of well-being would allow NOAA and other agencies to better understand progress made toward recovery in communities affected by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. However, the broader purpose of the project was to conceptualize and develop an approach that could be adapted to monitor how coastal communities are doing in relation to a variety of ecosystem disruptions and associated interventions across all coastal regions in the U.S. and its Territories. The method and models developed provide substantial insight into the structure and significance of relationships between community well-being and environmental conditions. Further, this project has laid the groundwork for future investigation, providing a clear path forward for integrated monitoring of our nation’s coasts. The research and monitoring capability described in this document will substantially help counties, local organizations, as well state and federal agencies that are striving to improve all facets of community well-being.

The effects of size-selective fisheries on the stock dynamics of and sperm limitation in sex-changing fish

Fisheries models have traditionally focused on patterns of growth, fecundity, and survival of fish. However, reproductive rates are the outcome of a variety of interconnected factors such as life-history strategies, mating patterns, population sex ratio, social interactions, and individual fecundity and fertility. Behaviorally appropriate models are necessary to understand stock dynamics and predict the success of management strategies. Protogynous sex-changing fish present a challenge for management because size-selective fisheries can drastically reduce reproductive rates. We present a general framework using an individual-based simulation model to determine the effect of life-history pattern, sperm production, mating system, and management strategy on stock dynamics. We apply this general approach to the specific question of how size-selective fisheries that remove mainly males will impact the stock dynamics of a protogynous population with fixed sex change compared to an otherwise identical dioecious population. In this dioecious population, we kept all aspects of the stock constant except for the pattern of sex determination (i.e. whether the species changes sex or is dioecious). Protogynous stocks with fixed sex change are predicted to be very sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern. If all male size classes are fished, protogynous populations are predicted to crash even at relatively low fishing mortality. When some male size classes escape fishing, we predict that the mean population size of sex-changing stocks will decrease proportionally less than the mean population size of dioecious species experiencing the same fishing mortality. For protogynous species, spawning-per-recruit measures that ignore fertilization rates are not good indicators of the impact of fishing on the population. Decreased mating aggregation size is predicted to lead to an increased effect of sperm limitation at constant fishing mortality and effort. Marine protected areas have the potential to mitigate some effects of fishing on sperm limitation in sex-changing populations.

Climate forcing by changing solar radiation

By how much does changing radiation from the Sun influence Earth's climate compared with other natural and anthropogenic processes? Answering this question is necessary for making policy regarding anthropogenic global change, which must be detected against natural climate variability. Current knowledge of the amplitudes and time scales of solar radiative output variability available from contemporary solar monitoring and historical reconstructions can help specify climate forcing by changing radiation over multiple time scales.