The systemic roots of Russia’s recession. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2015/15, OCTOBER 2015

The Russian economy grew rapidly between 2000 and 2007, but growth decelerated after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, and since mid-2014 Russia has moved into recession. A number of short-term factors have caused recession: lower oil prices, the conflict with Ukraine, European Union and United States sanctions against Russia and Russian counter-sanctions. However Russia's negative output trends have deeper structural and institutional roots. They can be tracked back about a decade to when previous market-reform policies started to be reversed in favour of dirigisme, leading to further deterioration of the business and investment climate. • Russia must address its short-term problems, but in the medium-to-long term it must deal with its fundamental structural and institutional disadvantages: oil and commodity dependence and an unfriendly business and investment climate underpinned by poor governance. Compared to many other commodity producers, Russia is better placed to diversify its economy, mostly due to its excellent human capital. Ruble depreciation makes this task easier

Internacionalización de Leonisa: Una empresa colombiana de ropa interior.

Este documento analiza el proceso de internacionalización que ha tenido Leonisa, una empresa colombiana que ha logrado destacarse en el exclusivo mundo de la ropa interior femenina. Se presentan las diferentes estrategias que esta empresa ha utilizado (exportaciones, montaje de distribuidoras en el exterior e inversión extranjera), así como los mercados donde ha tenido presencia (Suramérica, Centroamérica y Europa). A manera de marco de referencia, se estudian los rasgos más característicos del mercado de las confecciones, así como los principales retos y amenazas que los cambios del entorno le imponen a la empresa. También se explican los orígenes de Leonisa y se hace una descripción de la forma como ha evolucionado la propiedad accionaria hasta el momento en que la empresa quedó en manos de la familia Urrea Arbeláez, en marzo de 2005.

Rational expectations? Developer behaviour and development cycles in the central London office market

Purpose – Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and naive expectations. Design/methodology/approach – Two parallel approaches are applied to test for either rational or adaptive/naive expectations: vector auto-regressive (VAR) approach with Granger causality tests and recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts. Findings – Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, the authors do not find evidence of adaptive and naïve expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags between market signal and construction starts vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developer decisions are explained, to a large extent, by contemporaneous and historic conditions in both the City and the West End, but this is more likely to stem from the lengthy design, financing and planning permission processes rather than adaptive or naive expectations. Research limitations/implications – More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of large demand shocks and/or irrational behaviour. Practical implications – Developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. Originality/value – This paper focuses the scholarly debate of real estate cycles on the role of expectations. It is also one of very few spatially disaggregate studies of the subject matter.

Concordance in global office market cycles

Concordance in global office market cycles, Regional Studies. A large proportion of international real estate investment is concentrated in the office markets of the world's largest cities. However, many of these global cities are also key financial services centres, highlighting the possibility of reduced economic diversification from an investor's perspective. This paper assesses the degree of synchronization in cycles across twenty of the world's largest office markets, finding evidence of significant concordance across a large number of markets. The results highlight the problems associated with commonalities in the underlying economic bases of the markets. The concentration of investment also raises the possibility of common flow of funds effects that may further reduce diversification opportunities.

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy investigation of the electrochemical behaviour of copper coated with artificial patina layers and submitted to wet and dry cycles

Due to rain events historical monuments exposed to the atmosphere are frequently submitted to wet and dry cycles. During drying periods wetness is maintained in some confined regions and the corrosion product layer, generally denominated patinas, builds up and gets thicker. The aim of this study is to use electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) to investigate the electrochemical behaviour of pure copper coated with two artificial patina layers and submitted either to continuous or to intermittent immersion tests, this latter aiming to simulate wet and dry cycles. The experiments were performed in 0.1 mol dm(-3) NaCl solution and in artificial rainwater containing the most significant pollutants of the city of Sao Paulo. The results of the continuous immersion tests in the NaCl solution have shown that the coated samples behave like a porous electrode with finite pore length. On the other hand, in the intermittent tests a porous electrode response with semi-infinite pore length can be developed. The results were interpreted based on the model of de Levie and a critical comparison with previous interpretations reported in the literature for similar systems is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anti-mullerian hormone is the best predictor of poor response in ICSI cycles of patients with endometriosis

Purpose: To correlate ovarian reserve (OR) markers with response in assisted reproduction techniques (ART) and determine their ability to predict poor response among patients with endometriosis (EDT). Methods: We evaluated ART cycles of 27 women with EDT and 50 with exclusive male factor. Basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) levels were determined. Ovarian response to gonadotropin stimulation was assessed and correlation coefficients calculated between the variables and reserve markers. Areas under the curve (AUC) determined ability of tests to predict poor response. Results: AMH was significantly correlated with response in both groups and it was the only marker with significant discriminative capacity to predict poor response among EDT (AUC = 0.842; 95% CI: 0.651-0.952) and control group (AUC = 0.869; 95% CI: 0.743-0.947). Conclusion: Infertile patients with endometriosis can benefit from the pre-therapeutic assessment of OR markers. However, regardless of disease presence, only AMH predicts poor response to stimulus.

Comparative study of amine solutions used in CO2 absorption/desorption cycles

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química

THE U.S. and European M&A cycles: A Markov switching and state space approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Testing the Freeze/Thaw Cycles in Lime Mortar

2nd Historic Mortars Conference - HMC 2010 and RILEM TC 203-RHM Final Workshop, Prague, September 2010

Ciclos económicos en economías abiertas y menos desarrolladas: el papel de los "shocks" en los términos de intercambio.The business cycle in open and less developed economies: the rol of terms-of-trade shocks.

Nuestra preocupación reside en estudiar empíricamente el mecanismo de transmisión internacional de ciclos económicos a economías pequeñas y menos desarrolladas (LDC), evaluando el impacto de los shocks en los términos de intercambio en países dónde existen imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio que imponen severas restricciones en el financiamiento de la inversión doméstica y al crecimiento económico. Primero, analizamos si la cuenta corriente responde de manera asimétrica a movimientos de largo plazo en los términos de intercambio. La hipótesis es que “en los buenos tiempos” cuando se produce una mejora permanente en términos de intercambio (y con ello el nivel de ingreso) los individuos no elevan su consumo en un monto acorde con la mejora de su ingreso (permanente) sino que ahorran una fracción del aumento en su dotación para hacer frente a una reversión en la mejora en los términos de intercambios (aunque ésta sea transitoria) en el futuro. En consecuencia, la cuenta corriente (diferencia entre ingreso y absorción) responde de manera positiva a un shock permanente en los términos de intercambio, ya que el individuo ahorra de manera cautelosa –debido a que sabe que no le prestarán para suavizar consumo - aún suponiendo que en el futuro tendrá una reversión transitoria de su ingreso. Segundo, estudiamos la relación dinámica entre los términos de intercambio y la tasa de interés en la economía pequeña abierta y con imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio (información asimétrica). La hipótesis es que la economía doméstica tiene que soportar una prima de riesgo que eleva el costo de la inversión y retarda el crecimiento (Gertler y Rogoff; 1990). Esta prima de riesgo depende, además, en forma negativa del nivel del colateral que tenga la economía. El colateral es la dotación de recursos naturales, por ejemplo, que la economía posee a los fines garantizar el cumplimiento de las obligaciones contraídas (en el modelo presentado las actividades dónde se invierten son independientes del colateral). La hipótesis establecida indica que los cambios en los términos de intercambio generan un aumento del colateral de la economía y una reducción del riesgo país: aumentos en los términos de intercambio reducen la prima de riesgo de la economía que opera en mercados de capitales con asimetrías de información, y como consecuencia aumentarían los ingresos de capitales. De esta forma, se estaría encontrando una explicación a la denominada “Paradoja de Lucas”. Finalmente, el proyecto estudia la conexión entre dos variables “clave” en la economía de los países emergentes: la relación entre los términos de intercambio y el tipo de cambio real. Argumentamos que los efectos de las mejoras de los términos de intercambio sobre los flujos de capitales externos tienden a ser sobreestimadas si no se consideran los efectos “secundarios” de éstas sobre el tipo de cambio real de la economía pequeña menos desarrollada. En este proyecto se controlan estadísticamente esta relación. La estrategia empírica elegida resulta en aplicar a un panel (constituido por dieciocho países de Latinoamérica) el método generalizado de momentos (GMM) a dos modelos de regresión estadística a los fines de abordar de manera eficiente el problema de la endogeneidad de la variable dependiente que actúa como regresor rezagado. La estrategia de estimación elegida enfatiza el análisis de la relación dinámica de las variables económicas incluidas en el análisis. The paper analyzes the general problem related to the transmission of economic cycles to Small Open Economies. The analysis focuses on terms-of-trade shocks, which are considered one of the major sources of income volatility in developing economies. Specifically, we tackle the problem related to the impact of terms-of-trade shocks in Less Developed SOEs. ‘Less Developed SOEs’ are understood as those countries who have borrowing constraints. First, we put to a test the hypothesis of asymmetric response of current account to terms-of-trade shocks (the impact of the shock on current account differs depending whether it is positive or negative), which originates from considering binding restrictions in international capital markets (Agénor and Aizenman; 2004). Second, we investigate about the main determinants of External Capital Flows (ECF) directed to Developing Countries. We put to a test the Gertler and Rogoff (1990) hypothesis that a “risky rate” arises in that markets because the economy has not sufficient amount of wealth to “collateralize” the capital she needs to borrow to take advantage of the investment opportunities she has and additionally because the lender does not have the chance of observing what the borrowed does with the funds (that is information asymmetry arises because the lender can check the realized output of investment but he can not observe if he really invest in the project or secretly lend abroad). Finally, Following Prasad, E. S., Rajan and R. Subramanian, A (2007) we measure the relationship between external capital flows and domestic currency overvaluation. We run a panel GMM estimation for a set of 18 Latin American Countries during the period 1973-2008.

Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.

Endogenous Credit Cycles and Financial Dampening in an Adverse Selection Economy

We propose an adverse selection framework in which the financial sector has a dual role. It amplifies or dampens exogenous shocks and also generates endogenous fluctuations. We fully characterize constrained optimal contracts in a setting in which entrepreneurs need to borrow and are privately informed about the quality of their projects. Our characterization is novel in analyzing pooling and separating allocations in a context of multi-dimensional screening: specifically, the amounts of investment undertaken and of entrepreneurial net worth are used to screen projects. We then embed these results in a dynamic competitive economy. First, we show how endogenous regime switches in financial contracts may generate fluctuations in an economy that exhibits no dynamics under full information. Unlike previous models of endogenous cycles, our result does not rely on entrepreneurial net worth being counter-cyclical or inconsequential for determining investment. Secondly, the model shows the different implications of adverse selection as opposed to pure moral hazard. In particular, and contrary to standard results in the macroeconomic literature, the financial system may dampen exogenous shocks in the presence of adverse selection.

Endogenous credit cycles

I develop an overlapping-generations framework in which changes in lending standards generateendogenous cycles. In my economy, entrepreneurs who are privately informed about thequality of their projects need to borrow funds. Intermediaries screen entrepreneurs both throughthe amount of investment undertaken and through the level of entrepreneurial net worth.I show that endogenous regime switches in financial contracts from pooling to separatingand vice-versa may generate fluctuations even in the absence of exogenous shocks. Whenthe economy is in the pooling (separating) regime, lending standards seem lax ( tight ) andinvestment is high (low). Differently from the existing literature, my model does not requireentrepreneurial net worth to be counter cyclycal or inconsequential for determining aggregateinvestment.

Testing speaking in 2ND and 3RD cycles at Capeverdean EFL classrooms

This study aims to identify the constraints that complicate the assessment of speaking in Capeverdean EFL classrooms. A literature review was conducted on studies already done in the field of testing speaking in EFL Capeverdean classrooms. The study was carried out using qualitative method with some Capeverdean secondary school English teachers. The participants answered a questionnaire that asked teachers opinions and experiences about speaking assessment. The study found that Capeverdean English teachers do not adequately assess their students speaking ability. Therefore, the study pointed out the constraints of the Capeverdean context that complicate the assessment of speaking in EFL classrooms. The teachers reported the main constraints in order of significance as large classes, difficulty in marking oral tests, difficulty in designing oral tests and difficulty in separating the speaking skill from the listening skill. It concluded that Capeverdean English teachers need assistance with new tools to assess speaking in their classrooms. Thus, the author will make some suggestions, first to the Ministry of Education and then to English teachers in the field to assist them with the implementation of regular oral testing in Cape Verdean English classrooms.

Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panelVAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences.We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specificindicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phasesbut, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s.