A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

Comparison of Linear Functions in Middle Grades Textbooks from Singapore and the United States

Many U.S. students do not perform well on mathematics assessments with respect to algebra topics such as linear functions, a building-block for other functions. Poor achievement of U.S. middle school students in this topic is a problem. U.S. eighth graders have had average mathematics scores on international comparison tests such as Third International Mathematics Science Study, later known as Trends in Mathematics and Science Study, (TIMSS)-1995, -99, -03, while Singapore students have had highest average scores. U.S. eighth grade average mathematics scores improved on TIMMS-2007 and held steady onTIMMS-2011. Results from national assessments, PISA 2009 and 2012 and National Assessment of Educational Progress of 2007, 2009, and 2013, showed a lack of proficiency in algebra. Results of curriculum studies involving nations in TIMSS suggest that elementary textbooks in high-scoring countries were different than elementary textbooks and middle grades texts were different with respect to general features in the U.S. The purpose of this study was to compare treatments of linear functions in Singapore and U.S. middle grades mathematics textbooks. Results revealed features currently in textbooks. Findings should be valuable to constituencies who wish to improve U.S. mathematics achievement. Portions of eight Singapore and nine U.S. middle school student texts pertaining to linear functions were compared with respect to 22 features in three categories: (a) background features, (b) general features of problems, and (c) specific characterizations of problem practices, problem-solving competency types, and transfer of representation. Features were coded using a codebook developed by the researcher. Tallies and percentages were reported. Welch's t-tests and chi-square tests were used, respectively, to determine whether texts differed significantly for the features and if codes were independent of country. U.S. and Singapore textbooks differed in page appearance and number of pages, problems, and images. Texts were similar in problem appearance. Differences in problems related to assessment of conceptual learning. U.S. texts contained more problems requiring (a) use of definitions, (b) single computation, (c) interpreting, and (d) multiple responses. These differences may stem from cultural differences seen in attitudes toward education. Future studies should focus on density of page, spiral approach, and multiple response problems.

Context-Based Customization of Routing Functions for Web GIS Applications

This poster presentation features three route planning applications developed by the Florida International University GIS Center and the Geomatics program at the University of Florida, and outlines their context based differences. The first route planner has been developed for cyclists in three Florida counties, i.e. Miami Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. The second route planner computes safe pedestrian routes to schools and has been developed for Miami Dade County. The third route planner combines pre-compiled cultural/eco routes and point-to-point route planning for the City of Coral Gables. This poster highlights the differences in design (user interface) and implementation (routing options) between the three route planners as a result of a different application context and target audience.

Improving the estimation of psychometric functions in 2AFC discrimination tasks.

Ulrich and Vorberg (2009) presented a method that fits distinct functions for each order of presentation of standard and test stimuli in a two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, which removes the contaminating influence of order effects from estimates of the difference limen. The two functions are fitted simultaneously under the constraint that their average evaluates to 0.5 when test and standard have the same magnitude, which was regarded as a general property of 2AFC tasks. This constraint implies that physical identity produces indistinguishability, which is valid when test and standard are identical except for magnitude along the dimension of comparison. However, indistinguishability does not occur at physical identity when test and standard differ on dimensions other than that along which they are compared (e.g., vertical and horizontal lines of the same length are not perceived to have the same length). In these cases, the method of Ulrich and Vorberg cannot be used. We propose a generalization of their method for use in such cases and illustrate it with data from a 2AFC experiment involving length discrimination of horizontal and vertical lines. The resultant data could be fitted with our generalization but not with the method of Ulrich and Vorberg. Further extensions of this method are discussed.

Efficient numerical methods for the random-field Ising model: Finite-size scaling, reweighting extrapolation, and computation of response functions

It was recently shown [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 227201 (2013)] that the critical behavior of the random-field Ising model in three dimensions is ruled by a single universality class. This conclusion was reached only after a proper taming of the large scaling corrections of the model by applying a combined approach of various techniques, coming from the zero-and positive-temperature toolboxes of statistical physics. In the present contribution we provide a detailed description of this combined scheme, explaining in detail the zero-temperature numerical scheme and developing the generalized fluctuation-dissipation formula that allowed us to compute connected and disconnected correlation functions of the model. We discuss the error evolution of our method and we illustrate the infinite limit-size extrapolation of several observables within phenomenological renormalization. We present an extension of the quotients method that allows us to obtain estimates of the critical exponent a of the specific heat of the model via the scaling of the bond energy and we discuss the self-averaging properties of the system and the algorithmic aspects of the maximum-flow algorithm used.

Investigating the effects of caffeine on executive functions using traditional Stroop and a new ecologically-valid virtual reality task, the Jansari assessment of Executive Functions (JEF©)

Objective: Caffeine has been shown to have effects on certain areas of cognition, but in executive functioning the research is limited and also inconsistent. One reason could be the need for a more sensitive measure to detect the effects of caffeine on executive function. This study used a new non-immersive virtual reality assessment of executive functions known as JEF© (the Jansari Assessment of Executive Function) alongside the ‘classic’ Stroop Colour- Word task to assess the effects of a normal dose of caffeinated coffee on executive function. Method: Using a double-blind, counterbalanced within participants procedure 43 participants were administered either a caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee and completed the ‘JEF©’ and Stroop tasks, as well as a subjective mood scale and blood pressure pre- and post condition on two separate occasions a week apart. JEF© yields measures for eight separate aspects of executive functions, in addition to a total average score. Results: Findings indicate that performance was significantly improved on the planning, creative thinking, event-, time- and action-based prospective memory, as well as total JEF© score following caffeinated coffee relative to the decaffeinated coffee. The caffeinated beverage significantly decreased reaction times on the Stroop task, but there was no effect on Stroop interference. Conclusion: The results provide further support for the effects of a caffeinated beverage on cognitive functioning. In particular, it has demonstrated the ability of JEF© to detect the effects of caffeine across a number of executive functioning constructs, which weren’t shown in the Stroop task, suggesting executive functioning improvements as a result of a ‘typical’ dose of caffeine may only be detected by the use of more real-world, ecologically valid tasks.

Neurorehabilitation of hand functions using brain computer interface

Introduction: Brain computer interface (BCI) is a promising new technology with possible application in neurorehabilitation after spinal cord injury. Movement imagination or attempted movement-based BCI coupled with functional electrical stimulation (FES) enables the simultaneous activation of the motor cortices and the muscles they control. When using the BCI- coupled with FES (known as BCI-FES), the subject activates the motor cortex using attempted movement or movement imagination of a limb. The BCI system detects the motor cortex activation and activates the FES attached to the muscles of the limb the subject is attempting or imaging to move. In this way the afferent and the efferent pathways of the nervous system are simultaneously activated. This simultaneous activation encourages Hebbian type learning which could be beneficial in functional rehabilitation after spinal cord injury (SCI). The FES is already in use in several SCI rehabilitation units but there is currently not enough clinical evidence to support the use of BCI-FES for rehabilitation. Aims: The main aim of this thesis is to assess outcomes in sub-acute tetraplegic patients using BCI-FES for functional hand rehabilitation. In addition, the thesis explores different methods for assessing neurological rehabilitation especially after BCI-FES therapy. The thesis also investigated mental rotation as a possible rehabilitation method in SCI. Methods: Following investigation into applicable methods that can be used to implement rehabilitative BCI, a BCI based on attempted movement was built. Further, the BCI was used to build a BCI-FES system. The BCI-FES system was used to deliver therapy to seven sub-acute tetraplegic patients who were scheduled to receive the therapy over a total period of 20 working days. These seven patients are in a 'BCI-FES' group. Five more patients were also recruited and offered equivalent FES quantity without the BCI. These further five patients are in a 'FES-only' group. Neurological and functional measures were investigated and used to assess both patient groups before and after therapy. Results: The results of the two groups of patients were compared. The patients in the BCI-FES group had better improvements. These improvements were found with outcome measures assessing neurological changes. The neurological changes following the use of the BCI-FES showed that during movement attempt, the activation of the motor cortex areas of the SCI patients became closer to the activation found in healthy individuals. The intensity of the activation and its spatial localisation both improved suggesting desirable cortical reorganisation. Furthermore, the responses of the somatosensory cortex during sensory stimulation were of clear evidence of better improvement in patients who used the BCI-FES. Missing somatosensory evoked potential peaks returned more for the BCI-FES group while there was no overall change in the FES-only group. Although the BCI-FES group had better neurological improvement, they did not show better functional improvement than the FES-only group. This was attributed mainly to the short duration of the study where therapies were only delivered for 20 working days. Conclusions: The results obtained from this study have shown that BCI-FES may induce cortical changes in the desired direction at least faster than FES alone. The observation of better improvement in the patients who used the BCI-FES is a good result in neurorehabilitation and it shows the potential of thought-controlled FES as a neurorehabilitation tool. These results back other studies that have shown the potential of BCI-FES in rehabilitation following neurological injuries that lead to movement impairment. Although the results are promising, further studies are necessary given the small number of subjects in the current study.

Evidence for reductive genome evolution and lateral acquisition of virulence functions in two Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis strains.

2011

A(-infinity)-interpolation in the ball

We give a necessary and sufficient condition for a sequence [ak}k in the unit ball of C° to be interpolating for the class A~°° of holomorphic functions with polynomial growth. The condition, which goes along the lines of the ones given by Berenstein and Li for some weighted spaces of entire functions and by Amar for H°° functions in the ball, is given in terms of the derivatives of m > n functions F Fm e A~°° vanishing on {ak)k.

Irrégularités dans la distribution des nombres premiers et des suites plus générales dans les progressions arithmétiques

Le sujet principal de cette thèse est la distribution des nombres premiers dans les progressions arithmétiques, c'est-à-dire des nombres premiers de la forme $qn+a$, avec $a$ et $q$ des entiers fixés et $n=1,2,3,\dots$ La thèse porte aussi sur la comparaison de différentes suites arithmétiques par rapport à leur comportement dans les progressions arithmétiques. Elle est divisée en quatre chapitres et contient trois articles. Le premier chapitre est une invitation à la théorie analytique des nombres, suivie d'une revue des outils qui seront utilisés plus tard. Cette introduction comporte aussi certains résultats de recherche, que nous avons cru bon d'inclure au fil du texte. Le deuxième chapitre contient l'article \emph{Inequities in the Shanks-Rényi prime number race: an asymptotic formula for the densities}, qui est le fruit de recherche conjointe avec le professeur Greg Martin. Le but de cet article est d'étudier un phénomène appelé le <>, qui s'observe dans les <>. Chebyshev a observé qu'il semble y avoir plus de premiers de la forme $4n+3$ que de la forme $4n+1$. De manière plus générale, Rubinstein et Sarnak ont montré l'existence d'une quantité $\delta(q;a,b)$, qui désigne la probabilité d'avoir plus de premiers de la forme $qn+a$ que de la forme $qn+b$. Dans cet article nous prouvons une formule asymptotique pour $\delta(q;a,b)$ qui peut être d'un ordre de précision arbitraire (en terme de puissance négative de $q$). Nous présentons aussi des résultats numériques qui supportent nos formules. Le troisième chapitre contient l'article \emph{Residue classes containing an unexpected number of primes}. Le but est de fixer un entier $a\neq 0$ et ensuite d'étudier la répartition des premiers de la forme $qn+a$, en moyenne sur $q$. Nous montrons que l'entier $a$ fixé au départ a une grande influence sur cette répartition, et qu'il existe en fait certaines progressions arithmétiques contenant moins de premiers que d'autres. Ce phénomène est plutôt surprenant, compte tenu du théorème des premiers dans les progressions arithmétiques qui stipule que les premiers sont équidistribués dans les classes d'équivalence $\bmod q$. Le quatrième chapitre contient l'article \emph{The influence of the first term of an arithmetic progression}. Dans cet article on s'intéresse à des irrégularités similaires à celles observées au troisième chapitre, mais pour des suites arithmétiques plus générales. En effet, nous étudions des suites telles que les entiers s'exprimant comme la somme de deux carrés, les valeurs d'une forme quadratique binaire, les $k$-tuplets de premiers et les entiers sans petit facteur premier. Nous démontrons que dans chacun de ces exemples, ainsi que dans une grande classe de suites arithmétiques, il existe des irrégularités dans les progressions arithmétiques $a\bmod q$, avec $a$ fixé et en moyenne sur $q$.

Analytic Kramer kernels, Lagrange-type interpolation series and de Branges spaces

The classical Kramer sampling theorem provides a method for obtaining orthogonal sampling formulas. In particular, when the involved kernel is analytic in the sampling parameter it can be stated in an abstract setting of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces of entire functions which includes as a particular case the classical Shannon sampling theory. This abstract setting allows us to obtain a sort of converse result and to characterize when the sampling formula associated with an analytic Kramer kernel can be expressed as a Lagrange-type interpolation series. On the other hand, the de Branges spaces of entire functions satisfy orthogonal sampling formulas which can be written as Lagrange-type interpolation series. In this work some links between all these ideas are established.

La distribution des zéros des fonctions L

Selon la philosophie de Katz et Sarnak, la distribution des zéros des fonctions $L$ est prédite par le comportement des valeurs propres de matrices aléatoires. En particulier, le comportement des zéros près du point central révèle le type de symétrie de la famille de fonctions $L$. Une fois la symétrie identifiée, la philosophie de Katz et Sarnak conjecture que plusieurs statistiques associées aux zéros seront modélisées par les valeurs propres de matrices aléatoires du groupe correspondant. Ce mémoire étudiera la distribution des zéros près du point central de la famille des courbes elliptiques sur $\mathbb{Q}[i]$. Brumer a effectué ces calculs en 1992 sur la famille de courbes elliptiques sur $\mathbb{Q}$. Les nouvelles problématiques reliées à la généralisation de ses travaux vers un corps de nombres seront mises en évidence

La distribution des zéros des fonctions L

Selon la philosophie de Katz et Sarnak, la distribution des zéros des fonctions $L$ est prédite par le comportement des valeurs propres de matrices aléatoires. En particulier, le comportement des zéros près du point central révèle le type de symétrie de la famille de fonctions $L$. Une fois la symétrie identifiée, la philosophie de Katz et Sarnak conjecture que plusieurs statistiques associées aux zéros seront modélisées par les valeurs propres de matrices aléatoires du groupe correspondant. Ce mémoire étudiera la distribution des zéros près du point central de la famille des courbes elliptiques sur $\mathbb{Q}[i]$. Brumer a effectué ces calculs en 1992 sur la famille de courbes elliptiques sur $\mathbb{Q}$. Les nouvelles problématiques reliées à la généralisation de ses travaux vers un corps de nombres seront mises en évidence

On the existence of exponential polynomials with prefixed gaps

This paper shows that the conjecture of Lapidus and Van Frankenhuysen on the set of dimensions of fractality associated with a nonlattice fractal string is true in the important special case of a generic nonlattice self-similar string, but in general is false. The proof and the counterexample of this have been given by virtue of a result on exponential polynomials P(z), with real frequencies linearly independent over the rationals, that establishes a bound for the number of gaps of RP, the closure of the set of the real projections of its zeros, and the reason for which these gaps are produced.

Valuing ecological functions of biodiversity in changbaishan mountain biosphere reserve in northeast china

Conservation of biodiversity can generate considerable indirect economic value and this is being increasingly recognized in China. For a forest ecosystem type of a nature reserve, the most important of its values are its ecological functions which provide human beings and other living things with beneficial environmental services. These services include water conservancy, soil protection, CO2 fixation and O-2 release, nutrient cycling, pollutant decomposition, and disease and pest control. Based on a case study in Changbaishan Mountain Biosphere Reserve in Northeast China, this paper provides a monetary valuation of these services by using opportunity cost and alternative cost methods. Using such an approach, this reserve is valued at 510.11 million yuan (USD 61.68 mill.) per year, 10 times higher than the opportunity cost (51.78 mill. yuan/ha.a) for regular timber production. While China has heeded United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)'s call for economic evaluation of ecological functions, the assessment techniques used need to be improved in China and in the West for reasons mentioned.