Bridging East and West : The Establishment of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in the United States Foreign Policy of Bridge Building, 1964-1972.

The dissertation examines the foreign policies of the United States through the prism of science and technology. In the focal point of scrutiny is the policy establishing the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the development of the multilateral part of bridge building in American foreign policy during the 1960s and early 1970s. After a long and arduous negotiation process, the institute was finally established by twelve national member organizations from the following countries: Bulgaria, Canada, Czechoslovakia, Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), France, German Democratic Republic (GDR), Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Poland, Soviet Union and United States; a few years later Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands also joined. It is said that the goal of the institute was to bring together researchers from East and West to solve pertinent problems caused by the modernization process experienced in industrialized world. It originates from President Lyndon B. Johnson s bridge building policies that were launched in 1964, and was set in a well-contested and crowded domain of other international organizations of environmental and social planning. Since the distinct need for yet another organization was not evident, the process of negotiations in this multinational environment enlightens the foreign policy ambitions of the United States on the road to the Cold War détente. The study places this project within its political era, and juxtaposes it with other international organizations, especially that of the OECD, ECE and NATO. Conventionally, Lyndon Johnson s bridge building policies have been seen as a means to normalize its international relations bilaterally with different East European countries, and the multilateral dimension of the policy has been ignored. This is why IIASA s establishment process in this multilateral environment brings forth new information on US foreign policy goals, the means to achieve these goals, as well as its relations to other advanced industrialized societies before the time of détente, during the 1960s and early 1970s. Furthermore, the substance of the institute applied systems analysis illuminates the differences between European and American methodological thinking in social planning. Systems analysis is closely associated with (American) science and technology policies of the 1960s, especially in its military administrative applications, thus analysis within the foreign policy environment of the United States proved particularly fruitful. In the 1960s the institutional structures of European continent with faltering, and the growing tendencies of integration were in flux. One example of this was the long, drawn-out process of British membership in the EEC, another is de Gaulle s withdrawal from NATO s military-political cooperation. On the other hand, however, economic cooperation in Europe between East and West, and especially with the Soviet Union was expanding rapidly. This American initiative to form a new institutional actor has to be seen in that structural context, showing that bridge building was needed not only to the East, but also to the West. The narrative amounts to an analysis of how the United States managed both cooperation and conflict in its hegemonic aspirations in the emerging modern world, and how it used its special relationship with the United Kingdom to achieve its goals. The research is based on the archives of the United States, Great Britain, Sweden, Finland, and IIASA. The primary sources have been complemented with both contemporary and present day research literature, periodicals, and interviews.

Metabolome based reaction graphs of M.tuberculosis and M.leprae: A comparative network analysis

Background. Several types of networks, such as transcriptional, metabolic or protein-protein interaction networks of various organisms have been constructed, that have provided a variety of insights into metabolism and regulation. Here, we seek to exploit the reaction-based networks of three organisms for comparative genomics. We use concepts from spectral graph theory to systematically determine how differences in basic metabolism of organisms are reflected at the systems level and in the overall topological structures of their metabolic networks. Methodology/Principal Findings. Metabolome-based reaction networks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium leprae and Escherichia coli have been constructed based on the KEGG LIGAND database, followed by graph spectral analysis of the network to identify hubs as well as the sub-clustering of reactions. The shortest and alternate paths in the reaction networks have also been examined. Sub-cluster profiling demonstrates that reactions of the mycolic acid pathway in mycobacteria form a tightly connected sub-cluster. Identification of hubs reveals reactions involving glutamate to be central to mycobacterial metabolism, and pyruvate to be at the centre of the E. coli metabolome. The analysis of shortest paths between reactions has revealed several paths that are shorter than well established pathways. Conclusions. We conclude that severe downsizing of the leprae genome has not significantly altered the global structure of its reaction network but has reduced the total number of alternate paths between its reactions while keeping the shortest paths between them intact. The hubs in the mycobacterial networks that are absent in the human metabolome can be explored as potential drug targets. This work demonstrates the usefulness of constructing metabolome based networks of organisms and the feasibility of their analyses through graph spectral methods. The insights obtained from such studies provide a broad overview of the similarities and differences between organisms, taking comparative genomics studies to a higher dimension.

A structure-preserving energy function for stability analysis of AC/DC systems

Direct stability analysis ofAC/DC power systems using a structure-preserving energy function (SPEF) is proposed in this paper. The system model considered retains the load buses thereby enabling the representation of nonlinear voltage dependent loads. TheHVDC system is represented with the same degree of detail as is normally done in transient stability simulation. The converter controllers can be represented by simplified or detailed models. Two or multi-terminalDC systems can be considered. The stability analysis is illustrated with a 3-machine system example and encouraging results have been obtained.

Composite Performance and Reliability Analysis for Hypercube Systems

In this paper we propose a novel technique to model and ana¿ lyze the performability of parallel and distributed architectures using GSPN-reward models.

BER Analysis of Weighted Interference Cancellation in Multicarrier DS-CDMA Systems

In this paper, we present the design and bit error performance analysis of weighted linear parallel interference cancellers (LPIC) for multicarrier (MC) DS-CDMA systems. We propose an LPIC scheme where we estimate (and cancel) the multiple access interference (MAI) based on the soft outputs on individual subcarriers, and the interference cancelled outputs on different subcarriers are combined to form the final decision statistic. We scale the MAI estimate on individual subcarriers by a weight before cancellation; these weights are so chosen to maximize the signal-to-interference ratios at the individual subcarrier outputs. For this weighted LPIC scheme, using an approach involving the characteristic function of the decision variable, we derive exact bit error rate (BER) expressions for different cancellation stages. Using the same approach, we also derive exact BER expressions for the matched filter (MF) and decorrelating detectors for the considered MC DS-CDMA system. We show that the proposed weighted LPIC scheme performs better than the MF detector and the conventional LPIC (where the weights are taken to be unity), and close to the decorrelating detector.

Performability of automated manufacturing systems with centralized material handling

We present a framework for performance evaluation of manufacturing systems subject to failure and repair. In particular, we determine the mean and variance of accumulated production over a specified time frame and show the usefulness of these results in system design and in evaluating operational policies for manufacturing systems. We extend this analysis for lead time as well. A detailed performability study is carried out for the generic model of a manufacturing system with centralized material handling. Several numerical results are presented, and the relevance of performability analysis in resolving system design issues is highlighted. Specific problems addressed include computing the distribution of total production over a shift period, determining the shift length necessary to deliver a given production target with a desired probability, and obtaining the distribution of Manufacturing Lead Time, all in the face of potential subsystem failures.

Precipitation in small systems-I. stochastic analysis

Precipitation in small droplets involving emulsions, microemulsions or vesicles is important for Producing multicomponent ceramics and nanoparticles. Because of the random nature of nucleation and the small number of particles in a droplet, the use of a deterministic population balance equation for predicting the number density of particles may lead to erroneous results even for evaluating the mean behavior of such systems. A comparison between the predictions made through stochastic simulation and deterministic population balance involving small droplets has been made for two simple systems, one involving crystallization and the other a single-component precipitation. The two approaches have been found to yield quite different results under a variety of conditions. Contrary to expectation, the smallness of the population alone does not cause these deviations. Thus, if fluctuation in supersaturation is negligible, the population balance and simulation predictions concur. However, for large fluctuations in supersaturation, the predictions differ significantly, indicating the need to take the stochastic nature of the phenomenon into account. This paper describes the stochastic treatment of populations, which involves a sequence of so-called product density equations and forms an appropriate framework for handling small systems.

Low-Complexity Detection and Performance in Multi-Gigabit High Spectral Efficiency Wireless Systems

Recently, we reported a low-complexity likelihood ascent search (LAS) detection algorithm for large MIMO systems with several tens of antennas that can achieve high spectral efficiencies of the order of tens to hundreds of bps/Hz. Through simulations, we showed that this algorithm achieves increasingly near SISO AWGN performance for increasing number of antennas in Lid. Rayleigh fading. However, no bit error performance analysis of the algorithm was reported. In this paper, we extend our work on this low-complexity large MIMO detector in two directions: i) We report an asymptotic bit error probability analysis of the LAS algorithm in the large system limit, where N-t, N-r -> infinity keeping N-t = N-r, where N-t and N-r are the number of transmit and receive antennas, respectively. Specifically, we prove that the error performance of the LAS detector for V-BLAST with 4-QAM in i.i.d. Rayleigh fading converges to that of the maximum-likelihood (ML) detector as N-t, N-r -> infinity keeping N-t = N-r ii) We present simulated BER and nearness to capacity results for V-BLAST as well as high-rate non-orthogonal STBC from Division Algebras (DA), in a more realistic spatially correlated MIMO channel model. Our simulation results show that a) at an uncoded BER of 10(-3), the performance of the LAS detector in decoding 16 x 16 STBC from DA with N-t = = 16 and 16-QAM degrades in spatially correlated fading by about 7 dB compared to that in i.i.d. fading, and 19) with a rate-3/4 outer turbo code and 48 bps/Hz spectral efficiency, the performance degrades by about 6 dB at a coded BER of 10(-4). Our results further show that providing asymmetry in number of antennas such that N-r > N-t keeping the total receiver array length same as that for N-r = N-t, the detector is able to pick up the extra receive diversity thereby significantly improving the BER performance.

Dynamic analysis of voltage instability in AC-DC systems

This paper presents the analysis and study of voltage collapse at any converter bus in A C-DC systems considering the dynamics of DC system. The problem of voltage instability is acute when HVDC links are connected to weak AC systems, the strength determined by short circuit ratio (SCR) at the converter bus. The converter control strategies are important in determining voltage instability. Small signal analysis is used to identify critical modes and evaluate the effect of AC system strength and control parameters. A sample two-terminal DC system is studied and the results compared with those obtained from static analysis. Also, the results obtained from small signal analysis are validated with nonlinear simulation.

Performability Analysis of Fork-Join Queueing Systems

Fork-join queueing systems offer a natural modelling paradigm for parallel processing systems and for assembly operations in automated manufacturing. The analysis of fork-join queueing systems has been an important subject of research in recent years. Existing analysis methodologies-both exact and approximate-assume that the servers are failure-free. In this study, we consider fork-join queueing systems in the presence of server failures and compute the cumulative distribution of performability with respect to the response time of such systems. For this, we employ a computational methodology that uses a recent technique based on randomization. We compare the performability of three different fork-join queueing models proposed in the literature: the distributed model, the centralized splitting model, and the split-merge model. The numerical results show that the centralized splitting model offers the highest levels of performability, followed by the distributed splitting and split-merge models.

Structured systems methodology for evaluation of random interruptions in continuous process type manufacturing systems

A structured systems methodology was developed to analyse the problems of production interruptions occurring at random intervals in continuous process type manufacturing systems. At a macro level the methodology focuses on identifying suitable investment policies to reduce interruptions of a total manufacturing system that is a combination of several process plants. An interruption-tree-based simulation model was developed for macroanalysis. At a micro level the methodology focuses on finding the effects of alternative configurations of individual process plants on the overall system performance. A Markov simulation model was developed for microlevel analysis. The methodology was tested with an industry-specific application.

Fully Comprehensive Geometrically Non-Linear Dynamic Analysis of Multi-Body Beam Systems with Elastic Couplings

This paper is concerned with the dynamic analysis of flexible,non-linear multi-body beam systems. The focus is on problems where the strains within each elastic body (beam) remain small. Based on geometrically non-linear elasticity theory, the non-linear 3-D beam problem splits into either a linear or non-linear 2-D analysis of the beam cross-section and a non-linear 1-D analysis along the beam reference line. The splitting of the three-dimensional beam problem into two- and one-dimensional parts, called dimensional reduction,results in a tremendous savings of computational effort relative to the cost of three-dimensional finite element analysis,the only alternative for realistic beams. The analysis of beam-like structures made of laminated composite materials requires a much more complicated methodology. Hence, the analysis procedure based on Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM), a tool to carry out the dimensional reduction, is used here.The analysis methodology can be viewed as a 3-step procedure. First, the sectional properties of beams made of composite materials are determined either based on an asymptotic procedure that involves a 2-D finite element nonlinear analysis of the beam cross-section to capture trapeze effect or using strip-like beam analysis, starting from Classical Laminated Shell Theory (CLST). Second, the dynamic response of non-linear, flexible multi-body beam systems is simulated within the framework of energy-preserving and energy-decaying time integration schemes that provide unconditional stability for non-linear beam systems. Finally,local 3-D responses in the beams are recovered, based on the 1-D responses predicted in the second step. Numerical examples are presented and results from this analysis are compared with those available in the literature.

Mathematical Analysis of Sensor Fusion for Intrusion Detection Systems

Fusion of multiple intrusion detection systems results in a more reliable and accurate detection for a wider class of intrusions. The paper presented here introduces the mathematical basis for sensor fusion and provides enough support for the acceptability of sensor fusion in performance enhancement of intrusion detection systems. The sensor fusion system is characterized and modeled with no knowledge of the intrusion detection systems and the intrusion detection data. The theoretical analysis is supported with an experimental illustration with three of the available intrusion detection systems using the DARPA 1999 evaluation data set.