CEPAL Review no.82

The devious maze of the international order: the importation of reforms / David Ibarra. -- Foreign banks in Latin America: a paradoxical result / Graciela Moguillansky, Rogerio Studart and Sebastián Vergara. -- A proposal for unitary taxes on the profits of transnational corporations / Andrew Mold. -- Regional integration and macroeconomic coordination in Latin America / Hubert Escaith. -- Import substitution in high-tech industries: Prebisch lives in Asia! / Alice H. Amsden. -- Industrial competitiveness in Brazil ten years after economic liberalization / João Carlos Ferraz, David Kupfer and Mariana Iootty. -- The influence of capital origin on Brazilian foreign trade patterns / Célio Hiratuka and Fernanda De Negri. -- Information and knowledge: the diffusion of information and communication technologies in the Argentine manufacturing sector / Gabriel Yoguel, Marta Novick, Darío Milesi, Sonia Roitter and José Borello. -- Local economic development and decentralization in Latin America / Francisco Alburquerque, in memory of Gabriel Aghón. -- Migrations, the labour market and poverty in Greater Buenos Aires / Rosalía Cortés and Fernando Groisman. -- Households, poverty and policy in times of crisis. Mexico, 1992-1996 / Benjamin Davis, Sudhanshu Handa and Humberto Soto. -- CEPAL Review on the Internet. -- Recent ECLAC publications.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Labour productivity and distribution issues

Although the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean grew more slowly in 2011 than in 2010, there were some improvements on the employment front. Workers benefited from the region’s satisfactory economic performance in an increasingly complex international setting. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2011 thanks to a halfpercentage- point gain in the urban employment rate. Both rates are at levels that have not been seen for a long time. The proportion of formal jobs with social benefits rose as well, and underemployment declined. The average wage and the minimum wage both increased in real terms, albeit only moderately. Economic performance and the employment situation varied widely among the subregions. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points in South America but 0.4 percentage points in the countries of the northern part of Latin America. In the countries of the Caribbean, the employment rate was up by 0.2 percentage points. The data show that substantial labour market gaps and serious labour-market insertion issues remain. This is especially the case for women and young people, for whom unemployment rates and other labour indicators are still unfavourable. The second part of this report looks at whether the fruits of economic growth and rising productivity have been distributed equitably between workers and companies. Between 2002 and 2008 (the most recent expansionary economic cycle), wages as a percentage of GDP fell in 13 of the 21 countries of the region for which data are available and rose in just 8. This points to redistribution that is unfavourable to workers, which is worrying in a region which already has the most unequal distribution of income in the world. Underlying this trend is the fact that, worldwide, wages have grown less than productivity. Beyond the ethical dimension of this issue, it jeopardizes the social and economic sustainability of growth. For example, one of the root causes of the recent financial crisis was that households in the United States responded to declining wage income by borrowing more to pay for consumption and housing. This turned out to be unsustainable in the long run. Over time, it undermines the labour market’s contribution to the efficient allocation of resources and its distributive function, too, with negative consequences for democratic governance. Among the triggers of this distributive worsening most often cited in the global debate are market deregulation and its impact on financial globalization, technological change that favours capital over labour, and the weakening of labour institutions. What is needed here is a public policy effort to help keep wage increases from lagging behind increases in productivity. Some countries of the region, especially in South America, saw promising developments during the second half of the 2000s in the form of a positive trend reversal in wages as a percentage of GDP. One example is Brazil, where a minimum wage policy tailored to the dynamics of the domestic market is considered to be one of the factors behind an upturn in the wage share of GDP. The region needs to grow more and better. Productivity must grow at a steady pace, to serve as the basis for sustained improvements in the well-being of the populace and to narrow the gap between the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean and the more advanced economies. And inequality must be decreased; this could be achieved by closing the productivity gap between upgraded companies and the many firms whose productivity is low. As set out in this report, the region made some progress between 2002 and 2010, with labour productivity rising at the rate of 1.5% a year. But this progress falls short of that seen in other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa (2.1%) and, above all, East Asia (8.3%, not counting Japan and the Republic of Korea). Moreover, in many of the countries of the region these gains have not been distributed equitably. Therein lies a dual challenge that must be addressed: continue to increase productivity while enhancing the mechanisms for distributing gains in a way that will encourage investment and boost worker and household income. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimate that the pace of economic growth in the region will be slightly slower in 2012 than in 2011, in a global economic scenario marked by the cooling of several of the main economic engines and a high degree of uncertainty concerning, above all, prospects for the euro zone. The region is expected to continue to hold up well to this worsening scenario, thanks to policies that leveraged more favourable conditions in the past. This will be felt in the labour markets, as well, so expectations are that unemployment will edge down by as much as two tenths of a decimal point.

Causes and consequences of low rates of specialisation in science and technology in CDCC member countries

The importance of science and technology (S&T) in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is clearly articulated in Chapter XI, paragraphs 57, 58, 61 and 62 of the Mauritius Strategy for the Further Implementation of the Programme of Action for Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (MSI). At the regional level, the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) noted the challenge that CARICOM member States face in competing in this new international economic environment in which the impact of scientific and technological change has created a knowledge-based global economy. Given the importance of S&T to development of Caribbean SIDS, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean embarked on a study to determine the causes and consequences of low rates of specialisation in S&T with a view to making recommendations for development of strategies for addressing these challenges. Data on postgraduate (Master of Science, Master of Philosophy and Doctor of Philosophy) enrolment and graduation in agriculture, engineering and the sciences from the three campuses of the University of the West Indies (UWI) as well as from the University of Technology in Jamaica and the University of Trinidad and Tobago (UTT) were examined and analysed. Face-to-face interviews were also held with key personnel from these institutions and a questionnaire was also served to individuals in key institutions. Results of the study revealed that although the number of students enrolled in higher degree programmes has increased in absolute terms, they are decreasing in relative terms. However, enrolment in agriculture has indeed declined while enrolment rates in engineering, although increasing, were not significantly high. Market forces have proved to be a main reason for this trend while facilities for the conduct and supervision of cutting-edge research, the disconnect between science and industry and societal labelling of scientists as “misfits” are also contributing to the situation. This has resulted in a reduced desire by students at all levels of the school system and faculty to be involved in S&T; lack of innovation; a better staffed private, as compared with public, sector; and poor remuneration in science-based employment. There also appears to be a gender bias in enrolment with more males than females being enrolled in engineering while the opposite is apparent in agriculture and the sciences. Recommendations for remedying this situation range from increasing investment in S&T, creating linkages between science and industry as well as with the international community, raising awareness of the value of S&T at all levels of the education system to informing policy to stimulate the science – innovation interface so as to promote intellectual property rights.

El desarrollo económico de la América Latina y algunos de sus principales problemas

Edición realizada con motivo del proyecto "Raúl Prebisch y los desafíos del Desarrollo del siglo XXI"

O arranjo produtivo local dos construtores de barcos artesanais: fundamentos para o desenvolvimento endógeno do Baixo - Tocantins (PA)

Este trabalho é um estudo de caso do Arranjo Produtivo Local – APL da indústria da construção naval artesanal no município de Igarapé-Miri região do Baixo – Tocantins. Atividade esta formado por estaleiros gerenciados por mestres trabalhadores detentores de um acervo intelectual tácito, passado de geração em geração. Objetiva investigar o potencial do APL da construção naval artesanal como fundamento do desenvolvimento endógeno na região. Deste modo, se analisou suas principais características, estrutura de produção, custo, ocupação, mercado e emprego nas pequenas empresas do APL da indústria naval bem como a dinâmica e a potencialidade do setor, os seus principais problemas e os entraves ao seu desenvolvimento. Dessa forma, a pesquisa constatou a crescente produção por tonelagem da indústria naval e os atores econômicos, políticos e sociais que dela tem se beneficiado. A pesquisa adotou o padrão metodológico das experiências de estudos de sistema de aprendizagem e inovações buscando entender sistemas e arranjos produtivos locais fundamentado na visão evolucionista sobre inovação e mudança tecnológica.

Aspectos evolucionários das unidades de produção camponesas do território Manaus e entorno

Nesta tese, aborda-se os processos de mudança e diversificação dos sistemas produtivos camponeses localizados em uma parte do Território Manaus e Entorno. O objetivo da pesquisa é a compreensão dos processos de mudança econômica e tecnológica em curso nestes sistemas produtivos. A abordagem do tema é realizada através de uma estrutura analítica multidisciplinar envolvendo conceito da teoria econômica evolucionária, da teoria do desenvolvimento endógeno, da antropologia econômica e da teoria do investimento camponês. Os resultados encontrados revelam que os sistemas produtivos estudados são diversificados em relação aos territórios onde ocorrem. Essa diversificação decorre do modo como os produtores camponeses adaptam seus sistemas produtivos alterando as rotinas de trabalho que os constituem em função das injunções provenientes do ambiente institucional complexo e da dinâmica dos ecossistemas. Tais adaptações são orientadas pelas características socioculturais inerentes às famílias camponesas e motivadas pela busca da eficiência reprodutiva. Ao final, os dados da pesquisa de campo são processados através da Análise Fatorial, revelando diferenciações de trajetórias de sistemas produtivos semelhantes em territórios distintos, bem como agrupamentos que posicionam os produtores camponeses entre situações de integração ao mercado e subsistência subsidiada por benefícios sociais e previdenciários. Esses resultados evidenciam a complexidade da socioeconomia camponesa e suas diversas estratégias de inovação adaptativa.

Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação no cotidiano dos adolescentes: enfoque no comportamento e na competências informacionais da geração Google

Introduction: Individuals born from the 1990’s to accompany technological change course and learn how to use the technological resources that have access before they even learn to read or write. In this sense, the literature considers the digital natives or even 'Google generation'. However, it has been questioned their skills to identify information needs and seeking and use of information in the most varied environments digital information available on the Web. Objectives: To characterize the behavior of information seeking in everyday life of a group of teenage students from a private school in Marilia, Sao Paulo. Methodology: A qualitative study with 30 adolescent students of a private school in Marilia, Sao Paulo. Data collection was accomplished at first by means of a questionnaire, based on the research of Hughes-Hussell and August (2007), containing questions about age, gender, hobbies and everyday tasks, and issues the use of computers and the internet, which allowed determination of the social, economic and cultural rights of respondents. Results: have focused on the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to search access and use information. It was suggested that the "Brotherhood of Informatics', an incentive for students to (re) learn the tools of digital communication and make appropriate use of the resources, products and services on the web to search and effective use of information compatible with their needs and that is tied to the ethical and responsible use of technology environments. Conclusions: The results arising from this study will continue through the continuation of the Confraternity of Computing, which became a "thermometer" on the use of digital information environments and the attitude of the students in front of Information and Communication Technologies in the College “Cristo Rei”.

Webinars in higher education: use and misuse

[EN]Web meetings have recently become a common tool for eLearning in higher education. But what are they used for? How well do they work? How do they fit into the pedagogical context? In this paper, the wider context of social and technological change over recent years is discussed and, in this light, the (mis)use of webinars to recreate traditional classroom dynamics online is held up to criticism. Possible future educational fits for this technology are indicated.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Optimal compliance with emission constraints: dynamic characteristics and the choice of technique

The paper analyzes how to comply with an emission constraint, which restricts the use of an established energy technique, given the two options to save energy and to invest in two alternative energy techniques. These techniques differ in their deterioration rates and the investment lags of the corresponding capital stocks. Thus, the paper takes a medium-term perspective on climate change mitigation, where the time horizon is too short for technological change to occur, but long enough for capital stocks to accumulate and deteriorate. It is shown that, in general, only one of the two alternative techniques prevails in the stationary state, although, both techniques might be utilized during the transition phase. Hence, while in a static economy only one technique is efficient, this is not necessarily true in a dynamic economy.

The European Union, the World Trade Organization and Cultural Diversity

The chapter maps these trade versus culture developments in the WTO and the positions of the European Union (EU or the Union) and its member states, which were not always coherent. It also looks at the actual results of the trade versus culture contestation – that is, the rules on trade in goods and services in the WTO and how they reflect the need for more policy space in matters of cultural policy, which the EU so ardently pressed for. The chapter further analyses the evolution of both the international trade regulation and the discourse on cultural policy. This discourse has in fact undergone a major transformation in the last two decades, as it has moved from the ‘exception culturelle’ rhetoric, which dominated the Uruguay trade talks, towards a more positive but also more pro-active agenda under the slogan of cultural diversity. The EU has been a major driver of this transformation, which has succeeded in mobilising the international community and ultimately led to the adoption of the 2005 UNESCO Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions. The chapter concludes by appraisal of the current state of the debate situating it into the broader picture of contemporary global governance. It asks how the EU could effectively pursue its cultural policy aspirations and endorse its cultural diversity agenda in a world of complexity and rapid technological change, in particular in view of the affordances of digital media.

The Level of Development and the Determinants of Productivity Growth

We examine the effects of technology on productivity growth by disaggregating total output into sectoral components, exploring the roles of investment and technology on productivity growth for countries in different income groups. We find that for low-income countries, investment is the most important determinant of productivity growth. While investment plays an important role in determining productivity growth in middle-income countries, additional effects resulting from technological change also emerge. Investment ceases to have a significant effect on productivity growth in high-income countries.

La modernización en el devenir de la producción familiar capitalizada

En el artículo se analizan los cambios que la modernización provocó en la producción familiar del sur de Santa Fe desde sus inicios hasta finales de la década de 1990. Los productores debieron incorporar capital de manera constante y creciente. El cambio tecnológico implicó modificaciones en la superficie y tenencia de la tierra, el uso productivo del suelo y la necesidad de mano de obra. La producción familiar evidencia capacidad de resistencia pero -a su vez- el proceso significó desaparición de explotaciones, concentración productiva y exclusión social en la región.

Transformaciones en el Complejo Lácteo Argentino. La mediería como forma social de trabajo

El complejo lácteo argentino y la estructura social rural en su conjunto, han experimentando importantes transformaciones en las últimas décadas, llevando a una profunda reestructuración del agro pampeano. A lo largo del presente trabajo, veremos cómo los procesos de cambio tecnológico y reestructuración de la actividad, tuvieron como consecuencia no el reemplazo o desplazamiento, sino más bien la transformación de la figura de la mediería como forma social del trabajo. Ésta última, debió transformarse de acuerdo a los nuevos requerimientos del sistema alimentario. De esta forma, analizaremos la forma que adquirió la organización del trabajo en el complejo lácteo como consecuencia de los procesos de modernización.

Producción y rentabilidad en la ganadería argentina. 1980-2006

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo principal estudiar y analizar la producción y rentabilidad de la ganadería argentina. El trabajo intentará explorar si los vaivenes de la actividad se encuentran atados a la evolución de la economía en su conjunto, y del sector agropecuario en particular; o si por el contrario, se trata de un sector cuya senda ha logrado independizarse del resto de las actividades. En arreglo a lo dicho, se buscará dar cuenta del impacto de las políticas económicas y los cambios tecnológicos sobre la producción y rentabilidad del sector, prestando especial atención a cuestiones estructurales de la actividad como son la productividad, cantidad, localización y concentración del stock vacuno. Asimismo, y en relación a esta última variable, estudiaremos su incidencia sobre los pequeños, medianos y grandes productores. Para llevar a cabo dicho estudio, se analizará con especial atención lo acontecido a partir de 2002, intentando rescatar las rupturas y continuidades que supuso el abandono de la convertibilidad.