Pseudo Phase Plane and Fractional Calculus Modelling of Western Global Economic Downturn

This paper applies Pseudo Phase Plane (PPP) and Fractional Calculus (FC) mathematical tools for modeling world economies. A challenging global rivalry among the largest international economies began in the early 1970s, when the post-war prosperity declined. It went on, up to now. If some worrying threatens may exist actually in terms of possible ambitious military aggression, invasion, or hegemony, countries’ PPP relative positions can tell something on the current global peaceful equilibrium. A global political downturn of the USA on global hegemony in favor of Asian partners is possible, but can still be not accomplished in the next decades. If the 1973 oil chock has represented the beginning of a long-run recession, the PPP analysis of the last four decades (1972–2012) does not conclude for other partners’ global dominance (Russian, Brazil, Japan, and Germany) in reaching high degrees of similarity with the most developed world countries. The synergies of the proposed mathematical tools lead to a better understanding of the dynamics underlying world economies and point towards the estimation of future states based on the memory of each time series.

Opportunities and threats for the launch of a smartphone app

Field lab: Entrepreneurial and innovative ventures

A decision- theoretic model for M&A sale processes

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics and International Business from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.

Identification of three Sorex species with microsatellite markers

Three sibling species of shrews, the common shrew (Sorex araneus), the Valais shrew (S. antinorii) and the Jersey shrew (S. coronatus) are morphologically similar. Different techniques based on karyorypes, morphology, biochemistry and genetic markers have been developed to identify individuals from these taxa. In this paper, we have used multiple microsatellite markers (L13, L14 and L99) to identify 55 dead animals coming from the Tarentaise Valley in France. As some individuals showed an unclear pattern with loci previously thought to be diagnostic (Lugon-Moulin et al. 2000), we have used morphologic measurements (Hausser et al. 1991) to confirm the status of these animals. This analysis clearly showed the limitations of the use of genetic diagnostic markers that have been designed in local populations and then applied to a wider scale. Even if these markers have great advantages over other techniques (i.e. simple to use and do not require samples from living animals), they should always be used with caution. There is always a risk of a locus not being diagnostic in the sampling region or in finding individuals with hybrid genotypes. Additional genetic markers should then be used, simultaneously with other identification techniques, to be sure of the status of the individuals.

Early detection and intervention for infants at risk of autism spectrum disorders

Autism is a developmental disorder that is characterized by abnonnal social interactions and communications as well as repetitive and restricted activities and interests. There is evidence of a genetic component, as 5% of younger siblings are diagnosed if their older sibling has been diagnosed. Autism is generally not diagnosed until age 3 at the earliest, yet it has been shown that early intervention for children with autism can greatly increase their functioning. Because of this, it is important that symptoms of autism are identified as early as possible so that diagnosis can occur as soon as possible to allow these children the earliest intervention. This thesis was divided into two parts. The first looked at the psychometrics of two proposed measures, the Parent Observation Checklist (POC), administered monthly, and the Infant Behavior Summary Evaluation (mSE), administered bimonthly, to see if they can be used with the infant population to identify autistic symptoms in infants who are at high risk for autism or related problems because they have an older sibling with autism. Study 1 reported acceptable psychometric properties of both the POC and IBSE in terms of test-retest reliability, internal consistency, construct validity and predictive validity. These results provide preliminary evidence that parent report measures can help to detect early symptoms of ASD in infants. The POC was shown to differentiate infants who were diagnosed from a matched group that was not diagnosed by 3 years of age. The second part of this thesis involved a telephone interview of parents who reported developmental and/or behavior problems in their high-risk infants that may be early signs of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). During the interview, a service questionnaire was administered to see what interventions (including strategies recommended by the researchers) their at risk infants and affected older siblings were receiving, how satisfied the parents were with them and how effective they felt the interventions were. 3 Study 2 also yielded promising results. Parents utilized a variety of services for at risk infants and children with ASD. The interventions included empirically validated early intervention (e.g., ABA) to non-empirically validated treatments (e.g., diet therapy). The large number of nonempirically validated treatments parents used was surprising, yet parents reported being involved and satisfied, and thought that the services were effective. Parents' perceptions of their stress levels went down slightly and feelings of competence rose when they accessed services for their infants. Overall, the results of this thesis provide new evidence that parent-report methods hold promise as early detection instruments for ASD in at-risk infants. More research is needed to further validate these instruments as well as to understand the variables related to the parents' choice of early intervention for their at risk and affected children.

Teaching Principled negotiation skills to parents and their children : the impact of parental involvement /

This study explored the impact of training parents and children concurrently in principled negotiation skills for the purpose of developing negotiation skills and problem solving abilities in children. A second experimental group was utilized to determine the viability of negotiation skills training of junior elementary students for the purpose of improving problem solving and conflict resolving abilities. The student population in each experimental group was trained using The Program for Young Negotiators (Curhan, 1996). A control group was also established using the remaining grade four and five students attending the participating school. These students did not receive training as part of this study. Student group distribution was as follows: Experimental group 1 (students with parent participant) consisted of 10 (5 grade five and 5 grade 4 students), Experimental group 2 students without parent participant) consisted of 48 (20 grade 4 and 28 grade 5 students), and the Control group 3 (55 grade 4 and 5 students). The impact of training was measured using the Five Factor Negotiation Scale developed for use with the Program for Young Negotiators (Curhan, 1996). This measure was employed as a pre- and post-test questionnaire to the total student population, (113 students) to determine levels of ability in each of the key elements of negotiation, personal initiative, collaboration, communication, conflict based perspective taking, and conflict resolution approach (Nakkula & Nikitopoulos, unpublished). This measure has a coefficient alpha of .75 which is acceptable for this type of affective instrument. As well, open ended ability questions designed to measure ability, knowledge, and behaviour as they relate to negotiation skill application were given to the total student population, (113 students). Finally, journals were maintained by the students in both experimental groups, and informal feedback discussions were held with students and parents participating in the study.The intent of using both qualitative and quantitative measures was to provide an overall perspective of student abilities as they related to principled negotiation skills. While the quantitative measures were from the student perspective, more qualitative information was sought from parents and teachers through informal interviews, discussions, and use of confidential feedback cards. For analysis purposes, the ability questions were randomly selected for Experimental group 2 and Control group 3 in an effort to balance the groups more equitably with Experimental group 1. The findings of this study indicate that students of the junior elementary school age can be taught how to perceive conflict in a more constructive way. However, they are not as likely to use their skills when the conflict is with a sibling as they are with a peer, a teacher, or a parent. While no statistically significant differences between mean scores for Experimental groups 1 and 2 exist some subtle differences are noted. Overall, increases in mean scores for grade 4 students exceeded the increases for grade 5 students within Experimental group 1 . The implication being that younger students benefit more from having a parent trained in principled negoUation skills than older students. The skill level of a parent in principled negotiation can not be underesUmated. Without a consistent and effective role model the likelihood of developing student skill level to a point of automaticity is greatly reduced. Enough so that perhaps the emphasis should be placed on training parents more so than the students.

Broad reduction and adoption in ring-billed gulls (Larus Delaworensis): the potential for inergenerational conflict

Patterns of intra-clutch egg size variation and intra-clutch hatch intervals in the Ring-billed gull (Larus delawarensis) were documented during the peak nesting period of two consecutive breeding seasons, at a colony near Port Colborne, Ontario. Egg size decreased with laying order; third laid eggs were significantly smaller than first laid eggs. Hatching of the third egg was delayed from that of first and second eggs. Intraclutch egg size differences established initial size disparities among chicks at hatch. Hatch intervals further exaggerated size disparities during the early post brood completion period. Competitive asymmetries among chicks were associated with increased mortality rates among third hatched chicks despite the lack of evidence of a sibling feeding hierarchy. Fledging success in 1987 was greater than in 1988. A "brood reduction strategy" appears to have enabled parents in 1987, to obtain an extra unit of reproductive fitness, while in 1988 parents were often unable to raise the entire brood and third chicks likely represented insurance reproductive value. Experimental broods (1988) were created in which hatch intervals were double those of natural intervals. The size disparities among chicks were significantly greater than in control broods, and the pattern of mortality among chicks suggested that first chicks benefited at a cost to second and third chicks. Parents of peak experimental broods achieved a fledging success rate similar to that of control broods. Characteristics of chick adoptions were also recorded. In each study year, 9 chicks abandoned their natal territories, 6 of which were adopted. Chicks consistently established themselves into broods where they were older than resident chicks. No direct evidence of cost to foster parents, or benefits to adopted chicks was obtained, although fledging success of adopted chicks was high.

Education, sport and myth in the community of Glengarry, Ontario : the athletic career of Roderick R. McLennan. 260 St. Catharines, Ont. : Faculty of Education, Brock University ;

This study examined how the athletic career of Roderick R. McLennan contributed to the popularization and subsequent development of Caledonian games in Ontario during the latter nineteenth century. Initially, the development of Caledonian games during the 1800s was examined to provide a contextual framework for McLennan's career. This investigation revealed that the games emerged from rural athletic events at pioneer working bees in the first quarter of the nineteenth century to regional sporting events by the mid-1800s, and finally into annual federated Caledonian games in 1870. Noteworthy primary source material for this chapter included the John MacGillivray Papers at the National Archives of Canada, the Scottish American Journal (NY) and the files retained by the Glengarry Sport Hall of Fame in Maxville, Ontario. Following the investigation of Caledonian games, McLennan's early athletic career was studied. Analysis of the Roderick and Farquhar McLennan Papers at the Archives of Ontario and the newspapers from the period revealed that McLennan rose to popularity in 1865 through a "Championship of the World" hammer throwing match in Cornwall and two "Starring Tours". The next chapter examined the height of McLennan's career through an investigation of the Roderick McLennan versus Donald Dinnie rivalry of the early .. n 1870s. It was detennined that the rivalry between McLennan and Dinnie, the champion athlete of Highland games in Scotland, was a popular attraction and had an impact on the Toronto and Montreal games of 1870 and the Toronto games of 1872. Finally, the athletic records established by McLennan during the 1860s and 1870s were investigated. These records were examined through the context of a media controversy over McLennan's feats that developed in the early 1880s between two newspapers. This controversy erupted between the Toronto Mail and the Spirit of the Times. Caledonian games in Canada have only been briefly examined and a thorough examination of prominent Canadian figures in this context has yet to be undertaken. This study unearths a prominent Canadian athlete of Scottish decent and details his involvement in the Caledonian games of nineteenth century Ontario.

Photograph of Bell Family Relative [n.d.]

Small black and white photograph mounted on black card of an unidentified Bell family relative, possibly a sibling of Irene Bell, whose photo is similarly featured. This undated photograph was in the possession of the Rick Bell family, whose relatives include former Black slaves from the United States.According to the 1911 Census of Canada, Irene Bell had the following siblings: Ernest Bell, born 1889 Archie Bell, born 1895 Allen Bell, born 1901 Kenneth Bell, born 1910

Exploring the Family Context Among Children Adopted From China: Perceptions of Pre-Adoption Factors, Post-Adoption Experiences, and the Quality of Parent-Child Relationships

Within the context of international adoption, previous research has focused on parentchild attachment relationships and various aspects of the adoption process. However, less is known about other aspects of parent-child relationships (e.g., cohesion, conflict) within internationally adoptive families. Additionally, there is a need for research that explores both parent and child perceptions of the process of adoption - including pre- and post-adoptive factors - and its connection to the quality of parent-child relationships. This research utilized a qualitatively-oriented methodology to conduct separate, in-depth interviews with 10 adoptive Canadian mothers and their adopted Chinese children (aged 9 to 11 years). Results highlight parent and child reports of mainly strong, positive relationships. Several pre-adoption experiences are examined, including institutionalization, age at the time of adoption, and parental stress/expectations. A key finding concerns the link that adoptive parents perceive between the quality of their child's pre-adoptive care (i.e., mainly early institutionalized care) and the quality of their relationship. Interestingly, this link is perceived in two different ways - either as a challenge for the parent-child relationship or as a means to strengthen it. Post-adoption experiences are also explored, including cultural socialization, creating a transracial family, discussing adoption, parental stress, and sibling involvement. A key finding involves parent and child reports that cultural socialization efforts (i.e., familiarizing children with Chinese culture) are linked to more positive parent-child relationships. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to theory and practice within the context of international adoption.

Comparison of the Behavioural Development of Infants at Low and High-Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorders

By identifying early signs of Autism Spectrum Disorder, early intervention or parent training could be implemented and assist in increasing the developmental trajectory for these infants. This cross sectional study used the Parent Observation of Early Markers Scale (POEMS) to identify early signs of ASD in 69 high-risk (older sibling diagnosed with ASD) and 69 matched low-risk infants' families (no family history of ASD) between 6 and 36 months of age. The preliminary results showed the high-risk children had significantly more elevated POEMS items than the low-risk children at 12, 18,24,30 and 36 months of age. The results suggest that at-risk infants may show signs of ASD as early as 12 months of age, and that the POEMS could be used to guide early intervention or parent training for children 12 months or older.

Photograph - Agnes Ethelwyn Wetherald, 1872.

Photograph of Ethelwyn Wetherald at age 15 in the year 1872. The same year her youngest sibling, Herbert, was born.

Alloparental care in a solitary bee

Research into the evolutionary origins of sociality in insect colonies is changing emphasis from understanding how eusociality is maintained to how insects transition from solitary to social lifestyles. The pygmy carpenter bees (Ceratina spp.) offer an excellent model for investigating such factors as they have been historically thought of as solitary but have recently been shown to be socially polymorphic, which may indicate that they are currently in a transitive phase. By utilizing behavioural observation and experimental removal protocols, I show that extended parental care, as well as sibling care in Ceratina calcarata plays an important role in offspring development. I found, upon removal of the mother, that specifically produced ‘dwarf’ female offspring take over parental care roles in the nest. The existence of alloparental care and generational overlap suggests that although they are classified as solitary bees, C. calcarata possess the prerequisite behavioural repertoire for sociality.

Multiple Public Goods and Lexicographic Preferences Replacement Principle.

We study the problem of locating two public goods for a group of agents with single-peaked preferences over an interval. An alternative specifies a location for each public good. In Miyagawa (1998), each agent consumes only his most preferred public good without rivalry. We extend preferences lexicographically and characterize the class of single-peaked preference rules by Pareto-optimality and replacement-domination. This result is considerably different from the corresponding characterization by Miyagawa (2001a).