Road infrastructure vulnerability to groundwater table variation due to sea level rise

This study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of coastal road infrastructures due to climate change induced sea level rise and extreme weather conditions through the estimation of road subgrade strength reduction as a result of changes in soil moisture content. The study area located in the Gold Coast, Australia highlighted that the risk is significant. In wet seasons or areas with wet condition, the groundwater table is already high, so even a small change in the groundwater table can raise the risk of inundation; particularly, in areas with existing shallow groundwater. The predicted risk of a high groundwater table on road infrastructure is a long-term hazard. Therefore, there is time to undertake some management plans to decrease the possible risks, for instance, some deep root plants could be planted along the roads with a high level of risk, to decrease the groundwater table elevation.

Optimal Irrigation and N-fertilizer Management for Sustainable Winter Wheat Production in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

The efficiency of the nitrogen (N) application rates 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha−1 in combination with low or medium water levels in the cultivation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Kupava was studied for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The results show an impact of the initial soil Nmin (NO3-N + NH4-N) levels measured at wheat seeding on the N fertilizer rates applied. When the Nmin content in the 0–50 cm soil layer was lower than 10 mg kg−1 during wheat seeding in 2005, the N rate of 180 kg ha−1 was found to be the most effective for achieving high grain yields of high quality. With a higher Nmin content of about 30 mg kg−1 as was the case in the 2006 season, 120 kg N ha−1 was determined as being the technical and economical optimum. The temporal course of N2O emissions of winter wheat cultivation for the two water-level studies shows that emissions were strongly influenced by irrigation and N-fertilization. Extremely high emissions were measured immediately after fertilizer application events that were combined with irrigation events. Given the high impact of N-fertilizer and irrigation-water management on N2O emissions, it can be concluded that present N-management practices should be modified to mitigate emissions of N2O and to achieve higher fertilizer use efficiency.

Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Harvesting as an alternative to burning for managing Spinifex Grasslands in Australia

Sustainable harvesting of grasslands can buffer large scale wildfires and the harvested biomass can be used for various products. Spinifex (Triodia spp.) grasslands cover ≈30% of the Australian continent and form the dominant vegetation in the driest regions. Harvesting near settlements is being considered as a means to reduce the occurrence and intensity of wildfires and to source biomaterials for sustainable desert living. However, it is unknown if harvesting spinifex grasslands can be done sustainably without loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We examined the trajectory of plant regeneration of burned and harvested spinifex grassland, floristic diversity, nutrient concentrations in soil and plants, and seed germination in controlled ex situ conditions. After two to three years of burning or harvesting in dry or wet seasons, species richness, diversity, and concentrations of most nutrients in soil and leaves of regenerating spinifex plants were overall similar in burned and harvested plots. Germination tests showed that 20% of species require fire-related cues to trigger germination, indicating that fire is essential for the regeneration of some species. Further experimentation should evaluate these findings and explore if harvesting and intervention, such as sowing of fire-cued seeds, allow sustainable, localised harvesting of spinifex grasslands.

Die Auswirkungen von Neid auf individuelle Leistungen: Ergebnisse einer Panelanalyse

Relative Einkommensunterschiede lösen innerhalb einer Referenzgruppe oftmals Neid aus und beeinflussen damit die individuelle Leistungsbereitschaft. In der ökonomischen Forschung ist bislang dieser Zusammenhang wenig untersucht worden. Unser Beitrag analysiert den Einfluss von relativen Einkommensunterschieden auf die Leistung von Fußballprofis der deutschen Bundesliga. Insgesamt werden 1040 Spieler über einen Zeitraum von 8 Spielzeiten zwischen 1995 und 2004 untersucht. Relative Einkommensunterschiede zwischen Mannschaftskollegen erweisen sich als entscheidender Einfluss auf die individuelle Leistung der Spieler. Eine Verschlechterung in der relativen Einkommensposition vermindert ceteris paribus die individuelle Leistungsbereitschaft. Eine höhere Einkommensungleichheit verstärkt solche positionsbedingten Externalitäten. Relative income differences are likely to lead to envy within a reference group. Envy in turn influences social behavior and individual performance. While positional concerns are apparent in daily life, empirical evidence is rare in the economic literature. This paper investigates the impact of the relative income position on individuals’ performance or productivity. As „performance“ is difficult to measure we turn to soccer players whose performance has been well documented. The broad sample covers eight seasons of the German premier soccer league (Bundesliga) between 1995 and 2004, and includes 1040 players, a salary proxy and several performance variables. The results show that player performance is strongly affected by relative income position. A disadvantage in the relative income position reduces productivity. The larger the income differences within a team, the stronger are the effects of positional concern. Team composition also significantly affects behaviour.

Stochastic ranking method for thermostatically controllable appliances to provide regulation services

Demand response can be used for providing regulation services in the electricity markets. The retailers can bid in a day-ahead market and respond to real-time regulation signal by load control. This paper proposes a new stochastic ranking method to provide regulation services via demand response. A pool of thermostatically controllable appliances (TCAs) such as air conditioners and water heaters are adjusted using direct load control method. The selection of appliances is based on a probabilistic ranking technique utilizing attributes such as temperature variation and statuses of TCAs. These attributes are stochastically forecasted for the next time step using day-ahead information. System performance is analyzed with a sample regulation signal. Network capability to provide regulation services under various seasons is analyzed. The effect of network size on the regulation services is also investigated.

Dispatch strategy of PHEVs to mitigate selected patterns of seasonally varying outputs from renewable generation

Rapid development of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) brings new challenges and opportunities to the power industry. A large number of idle PHEVs can potentially be employed to form a distributed energy storage system for supporting renewable generation. To reduce the negative effects of unsteady renewable generation outputs, a stochastic optimization-based dispatch model capable of handling uncertain outputs of PHEVs and renewable generation is formulated in this paper. The mathematical expectations, second-order original moments, and variances of wind and photovoltaic (PV) generation outputs are derived analytically. Incorporated all the derived uncertainties, a novel generation shifting objective is proposed. The cross-entropy (CE) method is employed to solve this optimal dispatch model. Multiple patterns of renewable generation depending on seasons and renewable market shares are investigated. The feasibility and efficiency of the developed optimal dispatch model, as well as the CE method, are demonstrated with a 33-node distribution system.

Assessing agronomic and environmental implications of different N fertilisation strategies in subtropical grain cropping systems on Oxisols

A multi-season 15N tracer recovery experiment was conducted on an Oxisol cropped with wheat, maize and sorghum to compare crop N recoveries of different fertilisation strategies and determine the main pathways of N losses that limit N recovery in these agroecosystems. In the wheat and maize seasons, 15N-labelled fertiliser was applied as conventional urea (CONV) and urea coated with a nitrification inhibitor (DMPP). In sorghum, the fate of 15N-labelled urea was monitored in this crop following a legume ley pasture (L70) or a grass ley pasture (G100). The fertiliser N applied to sorghum in the legume-cereal rotation was reduced (70 kg N ha−1) compared to the grass-cereal (100 kg N ha−1) to assess the availability of the N residual from the legume ley pasture. Average crop N recoveries were 73 % (CONV) and 77 % (DMPP) in wheat and 50 % (CONV) and 51 % (DMPP) in maize, while in sorghum were 71 % (L70) and 53 % (G100). Data gathered in this study indicate that the intrinsic physical and chemical conditions of Oxisols can be extremely effective in limiting N losses via deep leaching or denitrification. Elevated crop 15N recoveries can be therefore obtained in subtropical Oxisols using conventional urea while in these agroecosystems DMPP urea has no significant scope to increase fertiliser N recovery in the crop. Overall, introducing a legume phase to limit the fertiliser N requirements of the following cereal crop proved to be the most effective strategy to reduce N losses and increase fertiliser N recovery.

Unsupervised online learning of condition-invariant images for place recognition

This paper presents an online, unsupervised training algorithm enabling vision-based place recognition across a wide range of changing environmental conditions such as those caused by weather, seasons, and day-night cycles. The technique applies principal component analysis to distinguish between aspects of a location’s appearance that are condition-dependent and those that are condition-invariant. Removing the dimensions associated with environmental conditions produces condition-invariant images that can be used by appearance-based place recognition methods. This approach has a unique benefit – it requires training images from only one type of environmental condition, unlike existing data-driven methods that require training images with labelled frame correspondences from two or more environmental conditions. The method is applied to two benchmark variable condition datasets. Performance is equivalent or superior to the current state of the art despite the lesser training requirements, and is demonstrated to generalise to previously unseen locations.

Temporal and spatial patterns of seed dispersal of Musa acuminata by Cynopterus sphinx

The foraging behavior of greater short-nosed fruit bats (Cynopterus sphinx) on wild banana (Musa acuminata) and subsequent dispersal of seeds were studied in the Tropical Rainforest Conservation Area, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Yunnan province, by direct observation of marked fruits, mist netting, and seed collection. The mean number (± SE) of individual C. sphinx captured by mist net were 2.2 ± 0.33/day and 1.4 ± 0.32/day in the rainy season (September to October) and dry season (November to December), respectively; the difference was not significant. The number of seed pellets expelled was 9.0 ± 1.12/day and 7.2 ± 1.37/day in the rainy and dry seasons respectively; again the difference was not significant. The removal curves for marked fruit were similar for 10 focal trees. Fruits were consumed heavily within two weeks after ripening and all the marked fruit were removed within one month. The difference in seed dispersal was significant between different feeding roosts indicating that patterns of seed dispersal may not be uniform. We found the seeds of M. acuminata can be dispersed by C. sphinx to a distance of about 200 m, and C. sphinx can be considered as an effective seed disperser of M. acuminata.

Exploration of diarrhoea seasonality and its drivers in China

This study investigated the diarrhoea seasonality and its potential drivers as well as potential opportunities for future diarrhoea control and prevention in China. Data on weekly infectious diarrhoea cases in 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2012, and data on demographic and geographic characteristics, as well as climatic factors, were complied. A cosinor function combined with a Poisson regression was used to calculate the three seasonal parameters of diarrhoea in different provinces. Regression tree analysis was used to identify the predictors of diarrhoea seasonality. Diarrhoea cases in China showed a bimodal distribution. Diarrhoea in children <5 years was more likely to peak in fall-winter seasons, while diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years peaked in summer. Latitude was significantly associated with spatial pattern of diarrhoea seasonality, with peak and trough times occurring earlier at high latitudes (northern areas), and later at low latitudes (southern areas). The annual amplitudes of diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years increased with latitude (r = 0.62, P<0.001). Latitude 27.8° N and 38.65° N were the latitudinal thresholds for diarrhoea seasonality in China. Regional-specific diarrhoea control and prevention strategies may be optimal for China. More attention should be paid to diarrhoea in children <5 years during fall-winter seasons.

Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

Temporal

An evolving meditation upon the complex, periodic processes that mark Australia’s seasonality, and our increasing ability to disturb them. By amplifying and shining light upon a myriad of mysterious lives lived in blackness, the work presents a sensuous, deep engagement with the rich, irregular spectras of seasonal forms: whilst hinting at a far less comforting background increasingly framed by anthropogenic climate change. ’Temporal’ uses custom interactive systems, illusionary techniques and real time spatial audio processes that draw upon a rich array of media, including seasonal, nocturnal field recordings sourced in the Bundaberg region and detailed observations of foliage & flowering phases from that region. By drawing inspiration from the subtle transitions between what Europeans once named ‘Summer’ and ‘Autumn’ and the multiple seasons recognised by other cultures, whilst also including bodily disturbances within the work, ’Temporal’ creates a compellingly immersive environment that wraps audiences in luscious yet ominous atmospheres beyond sight and hearing. This work completes a two year long project of dynamic mediated installations that have been presented in Sydney, Beijing, Cairns and Bundanon, that have each been somehow choreographed by environmental cycles; alluding to a new framework for making works that we named ‘Seasonal’. These powerful, responsive & experiential works each draw attention to that which will disappear when biodiverse worlds have descended into an era of permanent darkness – an ‘extinction of human experience’. By tapping into the deeply interlocking seasonal cycles of environments that are themselves intimately linked with social, geographical & political concerns, participating audiences are therefore challenged to see the night, their locality & ecologies in new ways through extending their personal limits of perception, imagery & comprehension.

Black Nectar

Black Nectar is a site-specific light & sound installation, that asks audiences to take slow, sensory walks through the inky-blackness of Bundanon’s forests at night, charting personal courses through seasons of change, animality and imagination – far beyond the blinding lights and howling tones of our contemporary existence. Gathering during a time Europeans once named as ‘spring’ audiences will leave the comfy lights and sounds of Bundanon’s homestead area, to take powerful, personal, silent journeys into the long darks of night, heading ultimately towards the place of ‘Black Nectar’. This most unusual of walks begins with impending darkness, and yet ultimately ends with the faintest, sweetest of glimmers – an en-lightening, re-sounding of our seasonal futures?