Working Group 1: Future developments in deterministic and stochastic parametrizations

Our group considered the desirability of including representations of uncertainty in the development of parameterizations. (By ‘uncertainty’ here we mean the deviation of sub-grid scale fluxes or tendencies in any given model grid box from truth.) We unanimously agreed that the ECWMF should attempt to provide a more physical basis for uncertainty estimates than the very effective but ad hoc methods being used at present. Our discussions identified several issues that will arise.

Antarctic air over New Zealand following vortex breakdown in 1998

An ozonesonde profile over the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) site at Lauder (45.0° S, 169.7° E), New Zealand, for 24 December 1998 showed atypically low ozone centered around 24 km altitude (600 K potential temperature). The origin of the anomaly is explained using reverse domain filling (RDF) calculations combined with a PV/O3 fitting technique applied to ozone measurements from the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. The RDF calculations for two isentropic surfaces, 550 and 600 K, show that ozone-poor air from the Antarctic polar vortex reached New Zealand on 24–26 December 1998. The vortex air on the 550 K isentrope originated in the ozone hole region, unlike the air on 600 K where low ozone values were caused by dynamical effects. High-resolution ozone maps were generated, and their examination shows that a vortex remnant situated above New Zealand was the cause of the altered ozone profile on 24 December. The maps also illustrate mixing of the vortex filaments into southern midlatitudes, whereby the overall mid-latitude ozone levels were decreased.

Analysis of 16S rDNA sequences from pathogenic Leptospira serovars and use of single nucleotide polymorphisms for rapid speciation by D-HPLC

Leptospira have a worldwide distribution and include important zoonotic pathogens yet diagnosis and differentiation still tend to rely on traditional bacteriological and serological approaches. In this study a 1.3 kb fragment of the rrs gene (16S rDNA) was sequenced from a panel of 22 control strains, representing serovars within the pathogenic species Leptospira interrogans, Leptospira borgpetersenii, and Leptospira kirschneri, to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). These were identified in the 5' variable region of the 16S sequence and a 181 bp PCR fragment encompassing this region was used for speciation by Denaturing High Performance Liquid Chromatography (D-HPLC). This method was applied to eleven additional species, representing pathogenic, non-pathogenic and intermediate species and was demonstrated to rapidly differentiate all but 2 of the non-pathogenic Leptospira species. The method was applied successfully to infected tissues from field samples proving its value for diagnosing leptospiral infections found in animals in the UK. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Persistence of a wild type Escherichia coli and its multiple antibiotic-resistant (MAR) derivatives in the abattoir and on chilled pig carcasses

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of an Escherichia coli with the multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) phenotype to withstand the stresses of slaughter compared to an isogenic progenitor strain. A wild type E. coli isolate (345-2RifC) of porcine origin was used to derive 3 isogenic MAR mutants. Escherichia coli 345-2RifC and its MAR derivatives were inoculated into separate groups of pigs. Once colonisation was established, the pigs were slaughtered and persistence of the E. coli strains in the abattoir environment and on the pig carcasses was monitored and compared. No significant difference (P>0.05) was detected between the shedding of the different E. coli strains from the live pigs. Both the parent strain and its MAR derivatives persisted in the abattoir environment, however the parent strain was recovered from 6 of the 13 locations sampled while the MAR derivatives were recovered from 11 of 13 and the number of MAR E. coil recovered was 10-fold higher than the parent strain at half of the locations. The parent strain was not recovered from any of the 6 chilled carcasses whereas the MAR derivatives were recovered from 3 out of 5 (P<0.001). This study demonstrates that the expression of MAR in 345-2RifC increased its ability to survive the stresses of the slaughter and chilling processes. Therefore in E. coli, MAR can give a selective advantage, compared to non-MAR strains, for persistence on chilled carcasses thereby facilitating transit of these strains through the food chain. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Triclosan resistance in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium

Objectives: The aim of this study was to characterize the mechanisms of resistance to triclosan in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium. Methods: Mutants resistant to triclosan were selected from nine S. enterica serovar Typhimurium strains. Mutants were characterized by genotyping, mutagenesis and complementation of fabI and analysis of efflux activity. Fitness of triclosan-resistant mutants was determined in vitro and in vivo. Results: Three distinct resistance phenotypes were observed: low- (LoT), medium- (MeT) and high-level (HiT) with MICs of 4-8, 16-32 and > 32 mg/L of triclosan, respectively, for inhibition. The genotype of fabI did not correlate with triclosan MIC. Artificial overexpression and mutagenesis of fabI in SL1344 each resulted in low-level triclosan resistance, indicating that FabI alone does not mediate high-level triclosan resistance in Salmonella Typhimurium. Active efflux of triclosan via AcrAB-TolC confers intrinsic resistance to triclosan as inactivation of acrB and tolC in wild-type strains and the triclosan-resistant mutants led to large decreases in triclosan resistance, which were reversed by complementation. Exemplars of each phenotype were evaluated for fitness in vivo; no fitness cost was seen and mutants colonized and persisted in chickens throughout a 28 day competitive index experiment. Conclusions: These data show that triclosan resistance can occur via distinct pathways in salmonella and that mutants selected after single exposure to triclosan are fit enough to compete with wild-type strains.

Fitness and dissemination of disinfectant-selected multiple-antibiotic-resistant (MAR) strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in chickens

Objectives: The aims of this study were to determine whether strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium which had acquired low-level multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) through repeated exposure to farm disinfectants were able to colonize and transmit between chicks as easily as the parent strain and, if such strains were less susceptible to fluoroquinolones, would high-level resistance be selected after fluoroquinolone treatment. Methods: Two mutants were compared with the isogenic parent. In the first experiment, day-old chicks were co-infected with both the parent and a mutant to determine their relative fitness. In the second experiment, parent and mutant strains (in separate groups of chicks) were assessed for their ability to transmit from infected (contact) to non-infected (naive) birds and with respect to their susceptibility to fluoroquinolone treatment. Birds were regularly monitored for the presence of Salmonella in caecal contents. Replica plating was used to monitor for the selection of antibiotic-resistant strains. Results: The parent strain was shown to be significantly fitter than the two mutants and was more rapidly disseminated to naive birds. Antibiotic treatment did not preferentially select for the two mutants or for resistant strains. Conclusions: The disinfectant-exposed strains, although MAR, were less fit, less able to disseminate than the parent strain and were not preferentially selected by therapeutic antibiotic treatment. As such, these strains are unlikely to present a greater problem than other salmonellae in chickens.

Phenotypic and proteomic characterization of multiply antibiotic-resistant variants of Salmonella entetica serovar typhimurium selected following exposure to disinfectants

In previous work, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain SL1344 was exposed to sublethal concentrations of three widely used farm disinfectants in daily serial passages for 7 days in an attempt to investigate possible links between the use of disinfectants and antimicrobial resistance. Stable variants OXCR1, QACFGR2, and TOPR2 were obtained following treatment with an oxidizing compound blend, a quaternary ammonium disinfectant containing formaldehyde and glutaraldehyde, and a tar acid-based disinfectant, respectively. All variants exhibited ca. fourfold-reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin, chloramphenicol, tetracycline, and ampicillin. This coincided with reduced levels of outer membrane proteins for all strains and high levels of AcrAB-To1C for OXCR1 and QACFGR2, as demonstrated by two-dimensional high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. The protein profiles of OXCR1 and QACFGR2 were similar, but they were different from that of TOPR2. An array of different proteins protecting against oxidants, nitroaromatics, disulfides, and peroxides were overexpressed in all strains. The growth and motility of variants were reduced compared to the growth and motility of the parent strain, the expression of several virulence proteins was altered, and the invasiveness in an enteric epithelial cell line was reduced. The colony morphology of OXCR1 and QACFGR2 was smooth, and both variants exhibited a loss of modal distribution of the lipopolysaccharide O-antigen chain length, favoring the production of short O-antigen chain molecules. Metabolic changes were also detected, suggesting that there was increased protein synthesis and a shift from oxidative phosphorylation to substrate level phosphorylation. In this study, we obtained evidence that farm disinfectants can select for strains with reduced susceptibility to antibiotics, and here we describe changes in protein expression in such strains.

Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration.

An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

Association between cyclohexane resistance in Salmonella of different serovars and increased, resistance to multiple antibiotics, disinfectants and dyes

A panel of 388 salmonellas of animal and human origin, comprising 35 serotypes, was tested for resistance to cyclohexane and to a range of antibiotics, disinfectants and dyes. Cyclohexane resistance was detected in 41 isolates (10.6%): these comprised members of the serovars Binza (1 of 15), Dublin (1 of 24), Enteritidis (1 of 61), Fischerkietz (4 of 5), Livingstone (9 of 11), Montevideo (1 of 32), Newport (4 of 23), Saint-paul (1 of 3), Senftenberg (10 of 24) and Typhimurium (9 of 93). Most (39 of 41) of the cyclohexane-resistant isolates were from poultry. Statistical analysis showed that the cyclohexane-resistant strains were significantly more resistant than the cyclohexane-susceptible strains to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, trimethoprim, cetrimide and triclosan. The multiresistance patterns seen,were typical of those caused by efflux pumps, such as AcrAB. The emergence of such resistance may play an important role in the overall antibiotic resistance picture of Salmonella, with particular effect on ciprofloxacin.

Role of the mar locus in virulence of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 in chickens

The virulence of a Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT014 strain in which marA was insertionally inactivated was compared to its isogenic parent in vitro and in vivo. In vitro, the numbers of the marA mutant phagocytosed by porcine lung macrophages were significantly increased, while survival at 24 h inside macrophages and adherence to human gut cells were significantly reduced in comparison with the parent strain. In vivo, the marA inactivated strain, in competition with its parent strain, persisted for a shorter period in chickens, was present in the caeca at significantly lower levels and invaded the deeper organs to a significantly lesser extent. Therapeutic antibiotic treatment of one group of chickens with oxytetracycline favoured the persistence of both the parent strain and, to a lesser extent, the marA inactivated strain; but interestingly, increased tetracycline resistance of Salmonella isolates after treatment of birds with antibiotic was seen only for the parent strain. Further work is needed to elucidate how mar is involved in virulence and if its inactivation can minimise the ability of bacteria to become antibiotic-resistant in vivo.

Multiple antibiotic resistance (mar) locus in Salmonella enterica serovar typhimurium DT104

In order to understand the role of the mar locus in Salmonella with regard to multiple antibiotic resistance, cyclohexane resistance, and outer membrane protein F (OmpF) regulation, a marA::gfp reporter mutant was constructed in an antibiotic-sensitive salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 background. Salicylate induced marA, whereas a number of antibiotics, disinfect ants, and various growth conditions did not. Increased antibiotic resistance was observed upon salicylate induction, although this was shown to be by both mar-dependent and mar-independent pathways. Cyclohexane resistance, however, was induced by salicylate by a mar-dependent pathway. Complementation studies with a plasmid that constitutively expressed marA confirmed the involvement of map in Salmonella with low-level antibiotic resistance and cyclohexane resistance, although the involvement of mar in down regulation of OmpF was unclear. However, marA overexpression did increase the expression of a ca. 50-kDa protein, but its identity remains to be elucidated Passage of the marA::gfp reporter mutant with increasing levels of tetracycline, a method reported to select for mar mutants in Escherichia coli, led to both multiple-antibiotic and cyclohexane resistance. Collectively, these data indicate that low-level antibiotic resistance, cyclohexane resistance, and modulation of OMPs in Salmonella, as in E. coli, can occur in both a mar-dependent and mar-independent manner.

The multiple antibiotic resistance (mar) locus and its significance

Chromosomally encoded systems involved in low level resistance of bacteria to different classes of antibiotics (mainly beta-lactams, chloramphenicol, quinolones and tetracycline), disinfectants and in resistance to organic solvents have been the focus of considerable interest in recent years. The multiple antibiotic resistance (mar) locus of Escherichia coli and Salmonella is perhaps the best described system involved in this type of resistance which is induced by MarA, the activator protein encoded by the marRAB locus. The mar-locus is reported to mediate resistance primarily by up-regulating efflux of some antibiotics, disinfectants and organic solvents via the AcrAB-TolC efflux pump and down regulating influx through Outer Membrane Protein F (OmpF). Whilst the level of antibiotic resistance conferred by marRAB is only low level, there are increasing data to suggest that marRAB and related systems are important in clinical antibiotic resistance, possibly as a 'stepping stone' to higher levels of resistance. Other related systems include up-regulation of RobA, SoxS and AcrAB which give rise to a similar resistance phenotype to that conferred by up-regulation of MarA. The aim of this paper is to review the function and significance of the mar-locus and related systems with a particular focus on its implications in veterinary medicine. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.