First steps towards probabilistic justification logic

In this article, we introduce the probabilistic justification logic PJ, a logic in which we can reason about the probability of justification statements. We present its syntax and semantics, and establish a strong completeness theorem. Moreover, we investigate the relationship between PJ and the logic of uncertain justifications.

Feasibility of cardiopulmonary exercise testing and training using a robotics-assisted tilt table in dependent-ambulatory stroke patients

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the feasibility of an augmented robotics-assisted tilt table (RATT) for incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and exercise training in dependent-ambulatory stroke patients. METHODS: Stroke patients (Functional Ambulation Category ≤ 3) underwent familiarization, an incremental exercise test (IET) and a constant load test (CLT) on separate days. A RATT equipped with force sensors in the thigh cuffs, a work rate estimation algorithm and real-time visual feedback to guide the exercise work rate was used. Feasibility assessment considered technical feasibility, patient tolerability, and cardiopulmonary responsiveness. RESULTS: Eight patients (4 female) aged 58.3 ± 9.2 years (mean ± SD) were recruited and all completed the study. For IETs, peak oxygen uptake (V'O2peak), peak heart rate (HRpeak) and peak work rate (WRpeak) were 11.9 ± 4.0 ml/kg/min (45 % of predicted V'O2max), 117 ± 32 beats/min (72 % of predicted HRmax) and 22.5 ± 13.0 W, respectively. Peak ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) were on the range "hard" to "very hard". All 8 patients reached their limit of functional capacity in terms of either their cardiopulmonary or neuromuscular performance. A ventilatory threshold (VT) was identified in 7 patients and a respiratory compensation point (RCP) in 6 patients: mean V'O2 at VT and RCP was 8.9 and 10.7 ml/kg/min, respectively, which represent 75 % (VT) and 85 % (RCP) of mean V'O2peak. Incremental CPET provided sufficient information to satisfy the responsiveness criteria and identification of key outcomes in all 8 patients. For CLTs, mean steady-state V'O2 was 6.9 ml/kg/min (49 % of V'O2 reserve), mean HR was 90 beats/min (56 % of HRmax), RPEs were > 2, and all patients maintained the active work rate for 10 min: these values meet recommended intensity levels for bouts of training. CONCLUSIONS: The augmented RATT is deemed feasible for incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing and exercise training in dependent-ambulatory stroke patients: the approach was found to be technically implementable, acceptable to the patients, and it showed substantial cardiopulmonary responsiveness. This work has clinical implications for patients with severe disability who otherwise are not able to be tested.

Submaximal cardiopulmonary thresholds on a robotics-assisted tilt table, a cycle and a treadmill: a comparative analysis

BACKGROUND: The robotics-assisted tilt table (RATT), including actuators for tilting and cyclical leg movement, is used for rehabilitation of severely disabled neurological patients. Following further engineering development of the system, i.e. the addition of force sensors and visual bio-feedback, patients can actively participate in exercise testing and training on the device. Peak cardiopulmonary performance parameters were previously investigated, but it also important to compare submaximal parameters with standard devices. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the RATT for estimation of submaximal exercise thresholds by comparison with a cycle ergometer and a treadmill. METHODS: 17 healthy subjects randomly performed six maximal individualized incremental exercise tests, with two tests on each of the three exercise modalities. The ventilatory anaerobic threshold (VAT) and respiratory compensation point (RCP) were determined from breath-by-breath data. RESULTS: VAT and RCP on the RATT were lower than the cycle ergometer and the treadmill: oxygen uptake (V'O2) at VAT was [mean (SD)] 1.2 (0.3), 1.5 (0.4) and 1.6 (0.5) L/min, respectively (p < 0.001); V'O2 at RCP was 1.7 (0.4), 2.3 (0.8) and 2.6 (0.9) L/min, respectively (p = 0.001). High correlations for VAT and RCP were found between the RATT vs the cycle ergometer and RATT vs the treadmill (R on the range 0.69-0.80). VAT and RCP demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability for all three devices (ICC from 0.81 to 0.98). Mean differences between the test and retest values on each device were close to zero. The ventilatory equivalent for O2 at VAT for the RATT and cycle ergometer were similar and both were higher than the treadmill. The ventilatory equivalent for CO2 at RCP was similar for all devices. Ventilatory equivalent parameters demonstrated fair-to-excellent reliability and repeatability. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to use the RATT for estimation of submaximal exercise thresholds: VAT and RCP on the RATT were lower than the cycle ergometer and the treadmill, but there were high correlations between the RATT vs the cycle ergometer and vs the treadmill. Repeatability and test-retest reliability of all submaximal threshold parameters from the RATT were comparable to those of standard devices.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

The Complexity of Non-Iterated Probabilistic Justification Logic

The logic PJ is a probabilistic logic defined by adding (noniterated) probability operators to the basic justification logic J. In this paper we establish upper and lower bounds for the complexity of the derivability problem in the logic PJ. The main result of the paper is that the complexity of the derivability problem in PJ remains the same as the complexity of the derivability problem in the underlying logic J, which is π[p/2] -complete. This implies that the probability operators do not increase the complexity of the logic, although they arguably enrich the expressiveness of the language.

Probabilistic Justification Logic

We present a probabilistic justification logic, PPJ, to study rational belief, degrees of belief and justifications. We establish soundness and completeness for PPJ and show that its satisfiability problem is decidable. In the last part we use PPJ to provide a solution to the lottery paradox.

Investigation of robotics-assisted tilt table technology for cardiopulmonary exercise testing in stroke patients

Due to the lack of exercise testing devices that can be employed in stroke patients with severe disability, the aim of this PhD research was to investigate the clinical feasibility of using a robotics-assisted tilt table (RATT) as a method for cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and exercise training in stroke patients. For this purpose, the RATT was augmented with force sensors, a visual feedback system and a work rate calculation algorithm. As the RATT had not been used previously for CPET, the first phase of this project focused on a feasibility study in 11 healthy able-bodied subjects. The results demonstrated substantial cardiopulmonary responses, no complications were found, and the method was deemed feasible. The second phase was to analyse validity and test-retest reliability of the primary CPET parameters obtained from the RATT in 18 healthy able-bodied subjects and to compare the outcomes to those obtained from standard exercise testing devices (a cycle ergometer and a treadmill). The results demonstrated that peak oxygen uptake (V'O2peak) and oxygen uptake at the submaximal exercise thresholds on the RATT were ̴20% lower than for the cycle ergometer and ̴30% lower than on the treadmill. A very high correlation was found between the RATT vs the cycle ergometer V'O2peak and the RATT vs the treadmill V'O2peak. Test-retest reliability of CPET parameters obtained from the RATT were similarly high to those for standard exercise testing devices. These findings suggested that the RATT is a valid and reliable device for CPET and that it has potential to be used in severely impaired patients. Thus, the third phase was to investigate using the RATT for CPET and exercise training in 8 severely disabled stroke patients. The method was technically implementable, well tolerated by the patients, and substantial cardiopulmonary responses were observed. Additionally, all patients could exercise at the recommended training intensity for 10 min bouts. Finally, an investigation of test-retest reliability and four-week changes in cardiopulmonary fitness was carried out in 17 stroke patients with various degrees of disability. Good to excellent test-retest reliability and repeatability were found for the main CPET variables. There was no significant difference in most CPET parameters over four weeks. In conclusion, based on the demonstrated validity, reliability and repeatability, the RATT was found to be a feasible and appropriate alternative exercise testing and training device for patients who have limitations for use of standard devices.

Implicit probabilistic sequence learning: Correlated streams and sequence length matter

We investigated whether a pure perceptual stream is sufficient for probabilistic sequence learning to occur within a single session or whether correlated streams are necessary, whether learning is affected by the transition probability between sequence elements, and how the sequence length influences learning. In each of three experiments, we used six horizontally arranged stimulus displays which consisted of randomly ordered bigrams xo and ox. The probability of the next possible target location out of two was either .50/.50 or .75/.25 and was marked by an underline. In Experiment 1, a left vs. right key response was required for the x of a marked bigram in the pure perceptual learning condition and a response key press corresponding to the marked bigram location (out of 6) was required in the correlated streams condition (i.e., the ring, middle, or index finger of the left and right hand, respectively). The same probabilistic 3-element sequence was used in both conditions. Learning occurred only in the correlated streams condition. In Experiment 2, we investigated whether sequence length affected learning correlated sequences by contrasting the 3-elements sequence with a 6-elements sequence. Significant sequence learning occurred in all conditions. In Experiment 3, we removed a potential confound, that is, the sequence of hand changes. Under these conditions, learning occurred for the 3-element sequence only and transition probability did not affect the amount of learning. Together, these results indicate that correlated streams are necessary for probabilistic sequence learning within a single session and that sequence length can reduce the chances for learning to occur.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Amorphous piezoresistive and piezoelectric sensors for robotics applications

Ultrasonic transducers have often been used in the development of sensory systems for robotics applications. In most cases, these sensory systems are based on the determination of times of flight for signals from every transducer. In this work we have used piezoresistive and piezoelectric materials to measure the instant and position collision in metallic structures by using the difference of the times of propagation of an acoustic wave when it is produced over a ferromagnetic (iron, steel or another material) based structure. An immediate application of the proposed method is the detection and location of impacts over the metallic links of an industrial robot or the collision position in a metallic structure for an automated inspection

Probabilistic Atlas Based Segmentation Using Affine Moment Descriptors and Graph-Cuts

We show a procedure for constructing a probabilistic atlas based on affine moment descriptors. It uses a normalization procedure over the labeled atlas. The proposed linear registration is defined by closed-form expressions involving only geometric moments. This procedure applies both to atlas construction as atlas-based segmentation. We model the likelihood term for each voxel and each label using parametric or nonparametric distributions and the prior term is determined by applying the vote-rule. The probabilistic atlas is built with the variability of our linear registration. We have two segmentation strategy: a) it applies the proposed affine registration to bring the target image into the coordinate frame of the atlas or b) the probabilistic atlas is non-rigidly aligning with the target image, where the probabilistic atlas is previously aligned to the target image with our affine registration. Finally, we adopt a graph cut - Bayesian framework for implementing the atlas-based segmentation.

Probabilistic versus incremental presynaptic learning in biological plausible synapses

In this paper, the presynaptic rule, a classical rule for hebbian learning, is revisited. It is shown that the presynaptic rule exhibits relevant synaptic properties like synaptic directionality, and LTP metaplasticity (long-term potentiation threshold metaplasticity). With slight modifications, the presynaptic model also exhibits metaplasticity of the long-term depression threshold, being also consistent with Artola, Brocher and Singer’s (ABS) influential model. Two asymptotically equivalent versions of the presynaptic rule were adopted for this analysis: the first one uses an incremental equation while the second, conditional probabilities. Despite their simplicity, both types of presynaptic rules exhibit sophisticated biological properties, specially the probabilistic version

A simplified Probabilistic Safety Assesment of a Steam-Methane Reforming Hydrogen Production Plant coupled to a High-Temperature Gas Cooled Nuclear Reactor

A Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is being developed for a steam-methane reforming hydrogen production plant linked to a High-Temperature Gas Cooled Nuclear Reactor (HTGR). This work is based on the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute’s (JAERI) High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR) prototype in Japan. This study has two major objectives: calculate the risk to onsite and offsite individuals, and calculate the frequency of different types of damage to the complex. A simplified HAZOP study was performed to identify initiating events, based on existing studies. The initiating events presented here are methane pipe break, helium pipe break, and PPWC heat exchanger pipe break. Generic data was used for the fault tree analysis and the initiating event frequency. Saphire was used for the PSA analysis. The results show that the average frequency of an accident at this complex is 2.5E-06, which is divided into the various end states. The dominant sequences result in graphite oxidation which does not pose a health risk to the population. The dominant sequences that could affect the population are those that result in a methane explosion and occur 6.6E-8/year, while the other sequences are much less frequent. The health risk presents itself if there are people in the vicinity who could be affected by the explosion. This analysis also demonstrates that an accident in one of the plants has little effect on the other. This is true given the design base distance between the plants, the fact that the reactor is underground, as well as other safety characteristics of the HTGR. Sensitivity studies are being performed in order to determine where additional and improved data is needed.

Grid-based histogram arithmetic for the probabilistic analysis of functions

The selection of predefined analytic grids (partitions of the numeric ranges) to represent input and output functions as histograms has been proposed as a mechanism of approximation in order to control the tradeoff between accuracy and computation times in several áreas ranging from simulation to constraint solving. In particular, the application of interval methods for probabilistic function characterization has been shown to have advantages over other methods based on the simulation of random samples. However, standard interval arithmetic has always been used for the computation steps. In this paper, we introduce an alternative approximate arithmetic aimed at controlling the cost of the interval operations. Its distinctive feature is that grids are taken into account by the operators. We apply the technique in the context of probability density functions in order to improve the accuracy of the probability estimates. Results show that this approach has advantages over existing approaches in some particular situations, although computation times tend to increase significantly when analyzing large functions.