Bayesian Estimation of Noise

In mathematical modeling the estimation of the model parameters is one of the most common problems. The goal is to seek parameters that fit to the measurements as well as possible. There is always error in the measurements which implies uncertainty to the model estimates. In Bayesian statistics all the unknown quantities are presented as probability distributions. If there is knowledge about parameters beforehand, it can be formulated as a prior distribution. The Bays’ rule combines the prior and the measurements to posterior distribution. Mathematical models are typically nonlinear, to produce statistics for them requires efficient sampling algorithms. In this thesis both Metropolis-Hastings (MH), Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithms and Gibbs sampling are introduced. In the thesis different ways to present prior distributions are introduced. The main issue is in the measurement error estimation and how to obtain prior knowledge for variance or covariance. Variance and covariance sampling is combined with the algorithms above. The examples of the hyperprior models are applied to estimation of model parameters and error in an outlier case.

Speed of travelling fronts: Two-dimensional and ballistic dispersal probability distributions

The speed of traveling fronts for a two-dimensional model of a delayed reactiondispersal process is derived analytically and from simulations of molecular dynamics. We show that the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) versions of a given kernel do not yield always the same speed. It is also shown that the speeds of time-delayed fronts may be higher than those predicted by the corresponding non-delayed models. This result is shown for systems with peaked dispersal kernels which lead to ballistic transport

Development of a flotation method for preconcentration-separation of trace amounts of some metal ions in plant tissues prior to their FAAS determinations

An efficient flotation method based on the combination of flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) and separation and preconcentration step for determination of Cr3+, Cu 2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Zn2+, Cd 2+, Fe3+ and Pb2+ ions in various real samples by the possibility of applying bis(2-hydroxyacetophenone)-1,4-butanediimine (BHABDI) as a new collector was studied. The influence of pH, amount of BHABDI as collector, sample matrix, type and amount of eluting agent, type and amount of surfactant as floating agent, ionic strength and air flow rates i.e. variables affecting the efficiency of the extraction system was evaluated. It is ascertained that metal ions such as iron can be separated simultaneously from matrix in the presence of 0.012 mM ligand, 0.025% (w/v) of CTAB to a test sample of 750 mL at pH 6.5. These ions can be eluted quantitatively with 6 mL of 1.0 mol L-1 HNO3 in methanol which lead to the enrichment factor of 125. The detection limits for analyte ions were in the range of 1.3-2.4 ng mL-1. The method has been successfully applied for determination of trace amounts of ions in various real samples.

Ion pair-dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction of trace amount of rhodium ion in water and road dust samples prior to flame atomic absorption spectrometry determination

A simple ion pair-dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction method was proposed for preconcentration trace amounts of rhodium. An ion association complex of RhCl4- and tetradecyldimetylbenzylamonium was extracted into cholorobenzene. The volume and the type of extractive and dispersive solvents, the extraction time and the pH of the aqueous solutions were optimized. The calibration curve was linear in the range of 0.6-500 ng mL-1 of rhodium. The limit of detection was 0.10 ng mL-1 in initial solution and preconcentration factor was 40. The proposed method was successfully applied to the extraction and determination of rhodium in road dust and water samples.

Dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction for the simultaneous separation of trace amounts of zinc and cadmium ions in water samples prior to flame atomic absorption spectrometry determination

In the proposed method, carbon tetrachloride and ethanol were used as extraction and dispersive solvents. Several factors that may be affected on the extraction process, such as extraction solvent, disperser solvent, the volume of extraction and disperser solvent, pH of the aqueous solution and extraction time were optimized. Under the optimal conditions, linearity was maintained between 1.0 ng mL-1 to 1.5 mg mL-1 for zinc and 1.0 ng mL-1 to 0.4 mg mL-1 for cadmium. The proposed method has been applied for determination of trace amount of zinc and cadmium in standard and water samples with satisfactory results.

Dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction based on solidification of floating organic drop for simultaneous separation/preconcentration of nickel, cobalt and copper prior to determination by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

A dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction based on solidification of floating organic drop for simultaneous extraction of trace amounts of nickel, cobalt and copper followed by their determination with electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry was developed. 300 µL of acetone and 1-undecanol was injected into an aqueous sample containing diethyldithiocarbamate complexes of metal ions. For a sample volume of 10 mL, enrichment factors of 277, 270 and 300 and detection limits of 1.2, 1.1 and 1 ng L-1 for nickel, cobalt and copper were obtained, respectively. The method was applied to the extraction and determination of these metals in different water samples.

Ligandless cloud point extraction of trace amounts of palladium and rhodium in road dust samples using Span 80 prior to their determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry

In this study, a procedure is developed for cloud point extraction of Pd(II) and Rh(III) ions in aqueous solution using Span 80 (non-ionic surfactant) prior to their determination by flame atomic absorption spectroscopy. This method is based on the extraction of Pd(II) and Rh(III) ions at a pH of 10 using Span 80 with no chelating agent. We investigated the effect of various parameters on the recovery of the analyte ions, including pH, equilibration temperature and time, concentration of Span 80, and ionic strength. Under the best experimental conditions, the limits of detection based on 3Sb for Pd(II) and Rh(III) ions were 1.3 and 1.2 ng mL-1, respectively. Seven replicate determinations of a mixture of 0.5 µg mL-1 palladium and rhodium ions gave a mean absorbance of 0.058 and 0.053 with relative standard deviations of 1.8 and 1.6%, respectively. The developed method was successfully applied to the extraction and determination of the palladium and rhodium ions in road dust and standard samples and satisfactory results were obtained.

Preconcentration of copper from natural water samples using ligand-less in situ surfactant-based solid phase extraction prior to FAAS determination

In the present work, a simple and rapid ligand-less, in situ, surfactant-based solid phase extraction for the preconcentration of copper in water samples was developed. In this method, a cationic surfactant (n-dodecyltrimethylammonium bromide) was dissolved in an aqueous sample followed by the addition of an appropriate ion-pairing agent (ClO4-). Due to the interaction between the surfactant and ion-pairing agent, solid particles were formed and subsequently used for the adsorption of Cu(OH)2 and CuI. After centrifugation, the sediment was dissolved in 1.0 mL of 1 mol L-1 HNO3 in ethanol and aspirated directly into the flame atomic absorption spectrometer. In order to obtain the optimum conditions, several parameters affecting the performance of the LL-ISS-SPE, including the volumes of DTAB, KClO4, and KI, pH, and potentially interfering ions, were optimized. It was found that KI and phosphate buffer solution (pH = 9) could extract more than 95% of copper ions. The amount of copper ions in the water samples varied from 3.2 to 4.8 ng mL-1, with relative standard deviations of 98.5%-103%. The determination of copper in water samples was linear over a concentration range of 0.5-200.0 ng mL-1. The limit of detection (3Sb/m) was 0.1 ng mL-1 with an enrichment factor of 38.7. The accuracy of the developed method was verified by the determination of copper in two certified reference materials, producing satisfactory results.

Assessing Organizational Cultural Fit prior to Integration in the M&A Process

Yritysostojen määrä on historiallisen suuri 2000-luvulla, vaikka melkein puolet niistä epäonnistuu. Aineettomilla tekijöillä, kuten organisaatiokulttuureilla, on keskeinen rooli yritysostojen onnistumisissa. Myös case yritys on aktiivinen yritysostoissa ja haluaa arvioida integraatioprosessinsa tehokkuutta. Siten diplomityön tarkoituksena on luoda työkalu organisaatiokulttuurien yhteensopivuuden arvioimiseksi, jotta ostopäätöksentekoa sekä integraation suunnittelua voitaisiin tukea paremmin yrityksessä. Diplomityö vastaakin kysymyksiin, kuten miten arvioida kulttuurista yhteensopivuutta ennen integraatiota integraatioprosessin parantamiseksi sekä mitkä ovat olleet kaikkein ongelmallisimmat ja toisaalta kaikkein menestyksekkäimmät kulttuuritekijät tutkitussa integraatiossa. Kulttuurisen yhteensopivuuden arviointi tulisi nähdä prosessina osana yrityskauppaa. Prosessin tulisi alkaa kulttuurisen integraation tavoitteiden määrittämisellä sekä organisaatiokulttuurin käsitteen ymmärtämisellä. Kulttuurianalyysi tulisi suorittaa työpajan avulla. Sen tulisi käsitellä ainakin yhdeksän kulttuurin osa-aluetta: innovatiivisuus, päätöksenteko, ihmissuuntautuneisuus, kommunikaatio, kontrolli, asiakassuuntautuneisuus, ajanhallinta, identifikaatio, sekä kollektivismi. Lisäksi kuhunkin dimensioon liittyvään kysymykseen tulisi vastata pisteillä yhdestä viiteen, jolloin voidaan piirtää kulttuurisen yhteensopivuuden kuvio. Tämän jälkeen johdon tulisi keskustella tuloksista vielä kerran tarkemmin ja lopulta koota tulokset kirjalliseksi raportiksi. Tutkitussa integraatiossa parhaiten integraatiota tukivat ihmissuuntautuneisuus sekä ajanhallinta (työn ja vapaa-ajan välinen tasapaino sekä tulevaisuus-suuntautuneisuus). Haasteellisimmat kulttuuritekijät koskivat päätöksentekoa, kommunikaatiota ja kontrollia, jotka vaikuttavat olevan tyypillisiä ongelmia ison yrityksen ostaessa pienemmän yrityksen.

Winning time in land warfare : a reading of the classical strategists prior to the age of mechanization

We live in an age where rationalization and demands of efficiency taint every aspect of our lives both as individuals and as a society. Even warfare cannot escape the increased speed of human interaction. Time is a resource to be managed. It has to be optimized, saved and won in military affairs as well. The purpose of this research paper is to analyze the dogmatic texts of military thought to search for answers what the classics of strategy saw in the interrelations of temporality and warfare and if their thoughts remain meaningful in the contemporary conjunction. Since the way a society functions is reflected in the way it conducts its wars, there naturally are differences between an agrarian, industrial and information society. Theorists of different eras emphasize things specific to their times, but warfare, like any human interaction, is always bounded by temporality. Not only is the pace of warfare dependent on the progress of the society, but time permeates warfare in all its aspects. This research paper focuses on two specific topics that arose from the texts themselves; how should time be managed and manipulated in warfare and how to economize and “win” it from the enemy. A method where lengthy quotations are used to illustrate the main point of the strategists has been chosen for this research paper. While Clausewitz is the most prominent source of quotations, thoughts from ancient India and China are represented as well to prove that the combination of right force in the right place at the right time is still the way of the victorious. Tactics change in the course of time but the principles of strategy remain unaltered and are only adapted to suit new situations. While ancient and pre-modern societies had their focus on finding auspicious moments for battle in the flow of kronos-time based on divinities, portents and auguries, we can trace elements of manipulation of time in warfare from the earliest surviving texts. While time as a fourth dimension of the battlespace emerged only in the modern era, all through the history of military thought it has had a profound meaning. In the past time could be squandered, today it always has to be won. This paper asks the question “why”.

Weed Community in a Raw Sugarcane Renovation Area Submitted to Different Soil Managements

The objective of this study was to evaluate the weed community in a raw sugarcane renovation area with three soil managements and peanut sowing in succession. The experiment was conducted during the 2007/08 season on a raw sugarcane area harvested without prior burning in the last five cuts. A randomized block design with treatments arranged in a split plot and arranged in four replications was used. The main treatments consisted of three cropping systems: conventional tillage, minimum tillage and direct planting, and subplots consisted in the absence (resting) or presence of crop rotation with peanuts. After 135 days from planting peanuts and 180 days of sugarcane harvest, the number of weeds m-2 was counted and the shoot dry biomass of the weeds collected was determined. The data were interpreted by analysis of variance and the means were compared by Tukey's test at 5% probability so that phytosociological indices a, b, c e d were calculated. The use of soil conservation tillage and peanut in rotation with sugarcane in the renovation areas is effective in controlling weeds and suppression of weed species difficult to control like Cyperus rotundus, Commelina bengalensis, Urochloa plantaginea, and Digitaria nuda.

Hypomagnesemia in critically ill cancer patients: a prospective study of predictive factors

Hypomagnesemia is the most common electrolyte disturbance seen upon admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Reliable predictors of its occurrence are not described. The objective of this prospective study was to determine factors predictive of hypomagnesemia upon admission to the ICU. In a single tertiary cancer center, 226 patients with different diagnoses upon entering were studied. Hypomagnesemia was defined by serum levels <1.5 mg/dl. Demographic data, type of cancer, cause of admission, previous history of arrhythmia, cardiovascular disease, renal failure, drug administration (particularly diuretics, antiarrhythmics, chemotherapy and platinum compounds), previous nutrition intake and presence of hypovolemia were recorded for each patient. Blood was collected for determination of serum magnesium, potassium, sodium, calcium, phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels. Upon admission, 103 (45.6%) patients had hypomagnesemia and 123 (54.4%) had normomagnesemia. A normal dietary habit prior to ICU admission was associated with normal Mg levels (P = 0.007) and higher average levels of serum Mg (P = 0.002). Postoperative patients (N = 182) had lower levels of serum Mg (0.60 ± 0.14 mmol/l compared with 0.66 ± 0.17 mmol/l, P = 0.006). A stepwise multiple linear regression disclosed that only normal dietary habits (OR = 0.45; CI = 0.26-0.79) and the fact of being a postoperative patient (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.17-4.98) were significantly correlated with serum Mg levels (overall model probability = 0.001). These findings should be used to identify patients at risk for such disturbance, even in other critically ill populations.

Predicting bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies from historical financial statements

This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.

Synaptic vesicle pool size, release probability and synaptic depression are sensitive to Ca2+ buffering capacity in the developing rat calyx of Held

The calyx of Held, a specialized synaptic terminal in the medial nucleus of the trapezoid body, undergoes a series of changes during postnatal development that prepares this synapse for reliable high frequency firing. These changes reduce short-term synaptic depression during tetanic stimulation and thereby prevent action potential failures during a stimulus train. We measured presynaptic membrane capacitance changes in calyces from young postnatal day 5-7 (p5-7) or older (p10-12) rat pups to examine the effect of calcium buffer capacity on vesicle pool size and the efficiency of exocytosis. Vesicle pool size was sensitive to the choice and concentration of exogenous Ca2+ buffer, and this sensitivity was much stronger in younger animals. Pool size and exocytosis efficiency in p5-7 calyces were depressed by 0.2 mM EGTA to a greater extent than with 0.05 mM BAPTA, even though BAPTA is a 100-fold faster Ca2+ buffer. However, this was not the case for p10-12 calyces. With 5 mM EGTA, exocytosis efficiency was reduced to a much larger extent in young calyces compared to older calyces. Depression of exocytosis using pairs of 10-ms depolarizations was reduced by 0.2 mM EGTA compared to 0.05 mM BAPTA to a similar extent in both age groups. These results indicate a developmentally regulated heterogeneity in the sensitivity of different vesicle pools to Ca2+ buffer capacity. We propose that, during development, a population of vesicles that are tightly coupled to Ca2+ channels expands at the expense of vesicles more distant from Ca2+ channels.