Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Choledocholithiasis: repetitive thick-slab single-shot projection magnetic resonance cholangiopancreaticography versus endoscopic ultrasonography.

This prospective study compares repetitive thick-slab single-shot projection magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) with endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) for the detection of choledocholithiasis. Fifty-seven consecutive patients (36 women, mean age 61) referred for suspected choledocholithiasis underwent MRCP, followed by EUS. Each procedure was performed by different operators blinded to the results of the other investigation. MR technique included a turbo spin-echo T2-weighted axial sequence with selective fat saturation (SPIR/TSE, TE=70 ms, TR=1,600 ms), followed by coronal dynamic MRCP. The same thick-slab slice was sequentially acquired 12 times as breath-hold single-shot projection imaging (SSh, TE=900 ms, TE=8,000 ms) centred on the common bile duct (CBD). Two experienced radiologists independently and blindly evaluated MR images for the detection of CBD stones. Their inter-observer agreement kappa was determined. Secondly, the two observers read MR images in consensus again. CBD stones were demonstrated in 18 out of 57 patients (31.6 %) and confirmed by endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERCP, n=17) or intraoperative cholangiography (n=1). Clinical follow-up served as the "gold standard" in patients with negative results without following invasive procedure (n=28). Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive value for MRCP resulting from consensus reading were 94.9%, 94.4%, 94.7%, 97.4% and 89.5%, respectively. Corresponding values of EUS were 97.4%, 94.4%, 96.5%, 97.4% and 94.4%. Inter-observer agreement kappa was 0.81. Repetitive thick-slab single-shot projection MRCP is an accurate non-invasive imaging modality for suspected choledocholithiasis and should be increasingly used to select those patients who require a subsequent therapeutic procedure, namely ERCP.

Psychoses a l'adolescence, les neurosciences ameliorent-elles la prediction? [Adolescent psychosis, can neuroscience improve prediction?]

Developments in the field of neuroscience have created a high level of interest in the subject of adolescent psychosis, particularly in relation to prediction and prevention. As the medical practice of adolescent psychosis and its treatment is characterised by a heterogeneity which is both symptomatic and evolutive, the somewhat poor prognosis of chronic development justifies the research performed: apparent indicators of schizophrenic disorders on the one hand and specific endophenotypes on the other are becoming increasingly important. The significant progresses made on the human genome show that the genetic predetermination in current psychiatric pathologies is complex and subject to moderating effects and there is therefore significant potential for nature-nurture interactions (between the environment and the genes). The road to be followed in researching the phenotypic expression of a psychosis gene is long and winding and is susceptible to many external influences at various levels with different effects. Neurobiological, neurophysiological, neuropsychological and neuroanatomical studies help to identify endophenotypes, which allow researchers to create identifying "markers" along this winding road. The endophenotypes could make it possible to redefine the nosological categories and enhance understanding of the physiopathology of schizophrenia. In a predictive approach, large-scale retrospective and prospective studies make it possible to identify risk factors, which are compatible with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia. However, the predictive value of such markers or risk indicators is not yet sufficiently developed to offer a reliable early-detection method or possible schizophrenia prevention measures. Nonetheless, new developments show promise against the background of a possible future nosographic revolution, based on a paradigm shift. It is perhaps on the basis of homogeneous endophenotypes in particular that we will be able to understand what protects against, or indeed can trigger, psychosis irrespective of the clinical expression or attempts to isolate the common genetic and biological bases according to homogeneous clinical characteristics, which have to date, proved unsuccessful

Standardization and evaluation of ELISA for the serodiagnosis of amoebic liver abscess

An ELISA test for the serological diagnosisof amoebic liver abscess (ALA) was standardized and evaluated in sera from three groups of patients: (1) three patients with diagnosis confirmed by isolation of the parasite,(2) thirty seven patients with diagnosis established by clinical findings and ultrasound studies and (3) seven patients whose diagnosis were established by clinical findings and a positive double immunodifusion test. Ninety one serum samples from healthy subjects and 22 from patients with other liver or parasitic diseases were also included in the study. the optimum concentration of Entamoeba histolytica antigen was 1.25 µg/ml and optimum dilutions of serum and anti-human IgG-alkaline phosphatase conjugate were 1:400 and 1:4000 respectively. The cut-off point of the ELISA test in this study was an absorbance value of 0.34. The test parameters were: sensitivity = 95.7 per cent, specificty = 100 per cent, positive predictive value = 100 per cent and negative predictive value = 98.2 per cent.The ELISA test was found to be of great use as a diagnostic tool for the establishment of amoebic etiology in patients with clinical supposition of ALA. The test could also be used for seroepidemiological surveys of the prevalence of invasive amoebiasis in a given population, since it allows the processing of a greater number of samples at a lower cost tahn other serological tests.

The epidemiology of malaria in Prábis, Guinea-Bissau

This article reports upon a community survey of malaria in Prábis, Guinea-Bissau. A house to house census of the population was initially carried out from August to December 1991(rainy season). After completing the census of each village, the population was invited to come, a week later, to a central point, where they were medically examined and finger-prick blood samples were collected for epidemiological characterization of the malaria situation in the area. The blood films of the one single village were used to compare the sensitivity and specificity of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) with optical microscopy detection of parasites. In another village, the occurrence of parasitaemia was compared in children with and without fever. During the dry season, from March to June 1992, the population in each village was again invited to come to a central point. Some of the field procedures were repeated. The study revealed Prábis as an administrative Sector of Guinea-Bissau with endemic malaria, mostly due to Plasmodium falciparum, but with a significant rate of mixed infections. Active transmission occurred throughout the year, but it was more intensive during the rainy season and in the northwestern quadrant of the Sector. The level of endemicity of the villages varied from hypo to holoendemic. The factors associated with the differences among villages included village size and predominant economic activity (closeness to rice fields). The transmission paradigm was, most likely, a mixture of malaria of the African wet Savannah and malaria associated with irrigated paddy fields. PCR proved to be a sensitive method with low specificity during the dry season. Pyraexia of 37.4ºC or higher in children aged 2-9 years is not a sensitive indicator of parasitaemia but, it is highly specific and it has a clinically useful predictive value.

Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P<.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Infusion of atrial natriuretic peptide to patients with congestive heart failure.

Atrial natriuretic peptides (ANP) exert vasodilating and natriuretic actions. The present study was undertaken to test the effect of low dose infusions of synthetic ANP on hemodynamic and humoral variables of patients with severe heart failure. Eight patients, aged 26 to 71 years, with severe congestive heart failure due to ischemic heart disease or idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy were included in the study. Synthetic human (3-28) ANP was infused at doses ranging from 0.5 to 2 micrograms/min for up to 3 h. Pulmonary capillary wedge pressure fell from 24 +/- 1 to 16 +/- 2 mm Hg (mean +/- SEM) (p less than 0.01) and cardiac index tended to rise from 2 +/- 0.2 to 2.3 +/- 0.2 L/min/m2 (NS), while blood pressure and heart rate did not change. One patient experienced a marked drop in pulmonary capillary wedge and arterial blood pressure that necessitated the administration of saline. ANP infusion did not alter plasma renin activity or plasma aldosterone, norepinephrine, or vasopressin levels. It decreased plasma epinephrine levels from 0.472 +/- 0.077 to 0.267 +/- 0.024 nmol/L (p less than 0.05). Plasma ANP levels were markedly elevated in all patients before initiating the infusion. They had no predictive value for the hemodynamic response to exogenous ANP. No correlation was observed between the hemodynamic effects of ANP and those induced by the subsequently administered converting enzyme inhibitor captopril, which seemed to improve cardiac function more consistently.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for detection of adenovirus after T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation: viral load as a marker for invasive disease.

BACKGROUND: The value of adenovirus plasma DNA detection as an indicator for adenovirus disease is unknown in the context of T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation, of which adenovirus disease is an uncommon but serious complication. METHODS: Three groups of 62 T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplant recipients were selected and tested for adenovirus in plasma by polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Adenovirus was detected in 21 (87.5%) of 24 patients with proven adenovirus disease (group 1), in 4 (21%) of 19 patients who shed adenovirus (group 2), and in 1 (10.5%) of 19 uninfected control patients. The maximum viral load was significantly higher in group 1 (median maximum viral load, 6.3x10(6) copies/mL; range, 0 to 1.0x10(9) copies/mL) than in group 2 (median maximum viral load, 0 copies/mL; range, 0 to 1.7x10(8) copies/mL; P<.001) and in group 3 (median maximum viral load, 0 copies/mL; range 0-40 copies/mL; P<.001). All patients in group 2 who developed adenoviremia had symptoms compatible with adenovirus disease (i.e., possible disease). A minimal plasma viral load of 10(3) copies/mL was detected in all patients with proven or possible disease. Adenoviremia was detectable at a median of 19.5 days (range, 8-48 days) and 24 days (range, 9-41 days) before death for patients with proven and possible adenovirus disease, respectively. CONCLUSION: Sustained or high-level adenoviremia appears to be a specific and sensitive indicator of adenovirus disease after T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation. In the context of low prevalence of adenovirus disease, the use of polymerase chain reaction of plasma specimens to detect virus might be a valuable tool to identify and treat patients at risk for viral invasive disease.

Prognostic accuracy of cerebral blood flow measurement by perfusion computed tomography, at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients.

The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic accuracy of perfusion computed tomography (CT), performed at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients. Accuracy was determined by comparison of perfusion CT with delayed magnetic resonance (MR) and by monitoring the evolution of each patient's clinical condition. Twenty-two acute stroke patients underwent perfusion CT covering four contiguous 10mm slices on admission, as well as delayed MR, performed after a median interval of 3 days after emergency room admission. Eight were treated with thrombolytic agents. Infarct size on the admission perfusion CT was compared with that on the delayed diffusion-weighted (DWI)-MR, chosen as the gold standard. Delayed magnetic resonance angiography and perfusion-weighted MR were used to detect recanalization. A potential recuperation ratio, defined as PRR = penumbra size/(penumbra size + infarct size) on the admission perfusion CT, was compared with the evolution in each patient's clinical condition, defined by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). In the 8 cases with arterial recanalization, the size of the cerebral infarct on the delayed DWI-MR was larger than or equal to that of the infarct on the admission perfusion CT, but smaller than or equal to that of the ischemic lesion on the admission perfusion CT; and the observed improvement in the NIHSS correlated with the PRR (correlation coefficient = 0.833). In the 14 cases with persistent arterial occlusion, infarct size on the delayed DWI-MR correlated with ischemic lesion size on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.958). In all 22 patients, the admission NIHSS correlated with the size of the ischemic area on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.627). Based on these findings, we conclude that perfusion CT allows the accurate prediction of the final infarct size and the evaluation of clinical prognosis for acute stroke patients at the time of emergency evaluation. It may also provide information about the extent of the penumbra. Perfusion CT could therefore be a valuable tool in the early management of acute stroke patients.

One-year survival and neurological outcome after pediatric cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

OBJECTIVE: Reported survival after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in children varies considerably. We aimed to identify predictors of 1-year survival and to assess long-term neurological status after in- or outpatient CPR. DESIGN: Retrospective review of the medical records and prospective follow-up of CPR survivors. SETTING: Tertiary care pediatric university hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: During a 30-month period, 89 in- and outpatients received advanced CPR. Survivors of CPR were prospectively followed-up for 1 year. Neurological outcome was assessed by the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category scale (PCPC). Variables predicting 1-year survival were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. INTERVENTIONS: None. RESULTS: Seventy-one of the 89 patients were successfully resuscitated. During subsequent hospitalization do-not-resuscitate orders were issued in 25 patients. At 1 year, 48 (54%) were alive, including two of the 25 patients with out-of-hospital CPR. All patients died, who required CPR after trauma or near drowning, when CPR began >10 min after arrest or with CPR duration >60 min. Prolonged CPR (21-60 min) was compatible with survival (five of 19). At 1 year, 77% of the survivors had the same PCPC score as prior to CPR. Predictors of survival were location of resuscitation, CPR during peri- or postoperative care, and duration of resuscitation. A clinical score (0-15 points) based on these three items yielded an area under the ROC of 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: Independent determinants of long-term survival of pediatric resuscitation are location of arrest, underlying cause, and duration of CPR. Long-term survivors have little or no change in neurological status.

Screening for elevated blood pressure in children and adolescents: a critical appraisal.

Although screening for elevated blood pressure (BP) in adults is beneficial, evidence of its beneficial effects in children is not clear. Elevated BP in children is associated with atherosclerosis early in life and tracks across the life course. However, because of the high variability in BP, tracking is weak, and having an elevated BP in childhood has a low predictive value for having elevated BP later in life. The absolute risk of cardiovascular diseases associated with a given level of BP in childhood and the long-term effect of treatment beginning in childhood are not known. No study has experimentally evaluated the benefits and harm of BP screening in children. One modeling study indicates that BP screen-and-treat strategies in adolescents are moderately cost-effective but less cost-effective than population-wide interventions to decrease BP for the reduction of coronary heart diseases. The US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the European Society of Hypertension recommend that children 3 years of age and older have their BP measured during every health care visit. According to the US Preventive Services Task Force, there is no sufficient evidence to recommend for or against screening, but their recommendations have to be updated. Whether the benefits of universal BP screening in children outweigh the harm has to be determined. Studies are needed to assess the absolute risk of cardiovascular diseases associated with elevated BP in childhood, to evaluate how to simplify the identification of elevated BP, to evaluate the long-term benefits and harm of treatment beginning in childhood, and to compare universal and targeted screening strategies.

Computed tomography angiography vs 3 T black-blood cardiovascular magnetic resonance for identification of symptomatic carotid plaques.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this prospective study was to perform a head-to-head comparison of the two methods most frequently used for evaluation of carotid plaque characteristics: Multi-detector Computed Tomography Angiography (MDCTA) and black-blood 3 T-cardiovascular magnetic resonance (bb-CMR) with respect to their ability to identify symptomatic carotid plaques. METHODS: 22 stroke unit patients with unilateral symptomatic carotid disease and >50% stenosis by duplex ultrasound underwent MDCTA and bb-CMR (TOF, pre- and post-contrast fsT1w-, and fsT2w- sequences) within 15 days of symptom onset. Both symptomatic and contralateral asymptomatic sides were evaluated. By bb-CMR, plaque morphology, composition and prevalence of complicated AHA type VI lesions (AHA-LT6) were evaluated. By MDCTA, plaque type (non-calcified, mixed, calcified), plaque density in HU and presence of ulceration and/or thrombus were evaluated. Sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP), positive and negative predictive value (PPV, NPV) were calculated using a 2-by-2-table. RESULTS: To distinguish between symptomatic and asymptomatic plaques AHA-LT6 was the best CMR variable and presence / absence of plaque ulceration was the best CT variable, resulting in a SE, SP, PPV and NPV of 80%, 80%, 80% and 80% for AHA-LT6 as assessed by bb-CMR and 40%, 95%, 89% and 61% for plaque ulceration as assessed by MDCTA. The combined SE, SP, PPV and NPV of bb-CMR and MDCTA was 85%, 75%, 77% and 83%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bb-CMR is superior to MDCTA at identifying symptomatic carotid plaques, while MDCTA offers high specificity at the cost of low sensitivity. Results were only slightly improved over bb-CMR alone when combining both techniques.

IRM cardiaque dans le suivi des cardiopathies congénitales à l'âge adulte [Cardiac MRI in the follow-up of adult congenital cardiomyopathy patients].

Magnetic resonance imaging is a rapidly developing modality in cardiology. It offers an excellent image definition and a large field of view, allowing a more accurate morphological assessment of cardiac malformations. Due to its unique versatility and its ability to provide myocardial tissue characterization, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is now recognized as a central imaging modality for a wide range of congenital heart diseases, including assessment of post-surgical cardiac anatomy, quantification of valvular disease and detection of myocardial ischemia. CMR provides useful diagnostic information without any radiation exposure, and improves the global management of patients with congenital heart disease.

Mitotic figure counts are significantly overestimated in resection specimens of invasive breast carcinomas.

Several authors have demonstrated an increased number of mitotic figures in breast cancer resection specimen when compared with biopsy material. This has been ascribed to a sampling artifact where biopsies are (i) either too small to allow formal mitotic figure counting or (ii) not necessarily taken form the proliferating tumor periphery. Herein, we propose a different explanation for this phenomenon. Biopsy and resection material of 52 invasive ductal carcinomas was studied. We counted mitotic figures in 10 representative high power fields and quantified MIB-1 immunohistochemistry by visual estimation, counting and image analysis. We found that mitotic figures were elevated by more than three-fold on average in resection specimen over biopsy material from the same tumors (20±6 vs 6±2 mitoses per 10 high power fields, P=0.008), and that this resulted in a relative diminution of post-metaphase figures (anaphase/telophase), which made up 7% of all mitotic figures in biopsies but only 3% in resection specimen (P<0.005). At the same time, the percentages of MIB-1 immunostained tumor cells among total tumor cells were comparable in biopsy and resection material, irrespective of the mode of MIB-1 quantification. Finally, we found no association between the size of the biopsy material and the relative increase of mitotic figures in resection specimen. We propose that the increase in mitotic figures in resection specimen and the significant shift towards metaphase figures is not due to a sampling artifact, but reflects ongoing cell cycle activity in the resected tumor tissue due to fixation delay. The dwindling energy supply will eventually arrest tumor cells in metaphase, where they are readily identified by the diagnostic pathologist. Taken together, we suggest that the rapidly fixed biopsy material better represents true tumor biology and should be privileged as predictive marker of putative response to cytotoxic chemotherapy.

Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis: the SEDAN score.

OBJECTIVE: A study was undertaken to develop a score for assessing risk for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) in ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis. METHODS: The derivation cohort comprised 974 ischemic stroke patients treated (1995-2008) with IV thrombolysis at the Helsinki University Central Hospital. The predictive value of parameters associated with sICH (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II) was evaluated, and we developed our score according to the magnitude of logistic regression coefficients. We calculated absolute risks and likelihood ratios of sICH per increasing score points. The score was validated in 828 patients from 3 Swiss cohorts (Lausanne, Basel, and Geneva). Performance of the score was tested with area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: Our SEDAN score (0 to 6 points) comprises baseline blood Sugar (glucose; 8.1-12.0 mmol/l [145-216 mg/dl] = 1; >12.0 mmol/l [>216 mg/dl] = 2), Early infarct signs (yes = 1) and (hyper)Dense cerebral artery sign (yes = 1) on admission computed tomography scan, Age (>75 years = 1), and NIH Stroke Scale on admission (≥10 = 1). Absolute risk for sICH in the derivation cohort was: 1.4%, 2.9%, 8.5%, 12.2%, 21.7%, and 33.3% for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 score points, respectively. In the validation cohort, absolute risks were similar (1.0%, 3.5%, 5.1%, 9.2%, 16.9%, and 27.8%, respectively). AUC-ROC was 0.77 (0.71-0.83; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: Our SEDAN score reliably assessed risk for sICH in IV thrombolysis-treated patients with anterior- and posterior circulation ischemic stroke, and it can support clinical decision making in high-risk patients. External validation of the score supports its generalization.