Public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on JUPITER Modeling study from a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on the Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin Study (JUPITER). METHODS: We studied 2268 adults aged 35-75 without cardiovascular disease in a population-based study in Switzerland in 2003-2006. We assessed the eligibility for statins according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines, and by adding "strict" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L and LDL-cholesterol <3.4mmol/L), and "extended" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L alone) JUPITER-like criteria. We estimated the proportion of CHD deaths potentially prevented over 10years in the Swiss population. RESULTS: Fifteen % were already taking statins, 42% were eligible by ATPIII guidelines, 53% by adding "strict", and 62% by adding "extended" criteria, with a total of 19% newly eligible. The number needed to treat with statins to avoid one CHD death over 10years was 38 for ATPIII, 84 for "strict" and 92 for "extended" JUPITER-like criteria. ATPIII would prevent 17% of CHD deaths, compared with 20% for ATPIII+"strict" and 23% for ATPIII + "extended" criteria (+6%). CONCLUSION: Implementing JUPITER-like strategies would make statin prescribing for primary prevention more common and less efficient than it is with current guidelines.

Ambiguous nucleotide calls from population-based sequencing of HIV-1 are a marker for viral diversity and the age of infection.

Background. The time passed since the infection of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individual (the age of infection) is an important but often only poorly known quantity. We assessed whether the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides obtained from bulk sequencing as done for genotypic resistance testing can serve as a proxy of this parameter. Methods. We correlated the age of infection and the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides in partial pol sequences of HIV-1 sampled before initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Three groups of Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants were analyzed, for whom the age of infection was estimated on the basis of Bayesian back calculation (n = 3,307), seroconversion (n = 366), or diagnoses of primary HIV infection (n = 130). In addition, we studied 124 patients for whom longitudinal genotypic resistance testing was performed while they were still ART-naive. Results. We found that the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides increased with the age of infection with a rate of .2% per year within the first 8 years but thereafter with a decreasing rate. We show that this pattern is consistent with population-genetic models for realistic parameters. Finally, we show that, in this highly representative population, a fraction of ambiguous nucleotides of >.5% provides strong evidence against a recent infection event < 1 year prior to sampling (negative predictive value, 98.7%). Conclusions. These findings show that the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides is a useful marker for the age of infection.

Cytokines and hs-CRP levels in individuals treated with aspirin for cardiovascular prevention: a population-based study (CoLaus Study)

Backgrounds: Pro-inflammatory cytokines and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) are associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Low-dose aspirin for cardiovascular (CV) prevention is reported to have anti-inflammatory effects. The aim of this study was to determine the association between cytokines and hs-CRP levels and low-dose aspirin use for CV prevention in a population-based cohort (CoLaus Study). Methods and Results: Blood samples were assessed in 6,085 participants (3,201 women) aged 35-75 years. Medications' use and indications were recorded. Among aspirin users (n=1'034; 17%), overall low-dose (351; 5.8%) and low-dose for CV prevention (324; 5.3%) users were specifically selected for analysis. IL-1beta, IL-6 and TNF-alpha were assessed by a multiplex particle-based flow cytometric assay and hs-CRP by an immunometric assay. Cytokines and hs-CRP were presented in quartiles. Multivariate analysis adjusting for sex, age, smoking status, body mass index, concomitant use of various immunomodulatory drugs, diabetes mellitus showed no association between cytokines and hs-CRP levels and low-dose aspirin use for CV prevention either comparing the topmost vs. the three other quartiles (OR 95% CI, 0.84 (0.59 - 1.18), 1.03 (0.78 - 1.32), 1.10 (0.83 - 1.46), 1.00 (0.67 - 1.69) for IL-1beta, IL-6, TNF-alpha and hs-CRP, respectively), or comparing the topmost quartile vs. the first one (OR 95% CI, 0.87 (0.60 - 1.26), 1.19 (0.79 - 1.79), 1.26 (0.86 - 1.84), 1.06 (0.67 - 1.69)). Conclusions: Low-dose aspirin use for cardiovascular prevention does not seem to impact plasma cytokine and hs-CRP levels in a population-based cohort.

Antipsychotic polypharmacy in a regional health service: a population-based study

Background To analyse the extent and profile of outpatient regular dispensation of antipsychotics, both in combination and monotherapy, in the Barcelona Health Region (Spain), focusing on the use of clozapine and long-acting injections (LAI). Methods Antipsychotic drugs dispensed for people older than 18 and processed by the Catalan Health Service during 2007 were retrospectively reviewed. First and second generation antipsychotic drugs (FGA and SGA) from the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification (ATC) code N05A (except lithium) were included. A patient selection algorithm was designed to identify prescriptions regularly dispensed. Variables included were age, gender, antipsychotic type, route of administration and number of packages dispensed. Results A total of 117,811 patients were given any antipsychotic, of whom 71,004 regularly received such drugs. Among the latter, 9,855 (13.9%) corresponded to an antipsychotic combination, 47,386 (66.7%) to monotherapy and 13,763 (19.4%) to unspecified combinations. Of the patients given antipsychotics in association, 58% were men. Olanzapine (37.1%) and oral risperidone (36.4%) were the most common dispensations. Analysis of the patients dispensed two antipsychotics (57.8%) revealed 198 different combinations, the most frequent being the association of FGA and SGA (62.0%). Clozapine was dispensed to 2.3% of patients. Of those who were receiving antipsychotics in combination, 6.6% were given clozapine, being clozapine plus amisulpride the most frequent association (22.8%). A total of 3.800 patients (5.4%) were given LAI antipsychotics, and 2.662 of these (70.1%) were in combination. Risperidone was the most widely used LAI. Conclusions The scant evidence available regarding the efficacy of combining different antipsychotics contrasts with the high number and variety of combinations prescribed to outpatients, as well as with the limited use of clozapine. Background To analyse the extent and profile of outpatient regular dispensation of antipsychotics, both in combination and monotherapy, in the Barcelona Health Region (Spain), focusing on the use of clozapine and long-acting injections (LAI). Methods Antipsychotic drugs dispensed for people older than 18 and processed by the Catalan Health Service during 2007 were retrospectively reviewed. First and second generation antipsychotic drugs (FGA and SGA) from the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification (ATC) code N05A (except lithium) were included. A patient selection algorithm was designed to identify prescriptions regularly dispensed. Variables included were age, gender, antipsychotic type, route of administration and number of packages dispensed. Results A total of 117,811 patients were given any antipsychotic, of whom 71,004 regularly received such drugs. Among the latter, 9,855 (13.9%) corresponded to an antipsychotic combination, 47,386 (66.7%) to monotherapy and 13,763 (19.4%) to unspecified combinations. Of the patients given antipsychotics in association, 58% were men. Olanzapine (37.1%) and oral risperidone (36.4%) were the most common dispensations. Analysis of the patients dispensed two antipsychotics (57.8%) revealed 198 different combinations, the most frequent being the association of FGA and SGA (62.0%). Clozapine was dispensed to 2.3% of patients. Of those who were receiving antipsychotics in combination, 6.6% were given clozapine, being clozapine plus amisulpride the most frequent association (22.8%). A total of 3.800 patients (5.4%) were given LAI antipsychotics, and 2.662 of these (70.1%) were in combination. Risperidone was the most widely used LAI. Conclusions The scant evidence available regarding the efficacy of combining different antipsychotics contrasts with the high number and variety of combinations prescribed to outpatients, as well as with the limited use of clozapine.

Breast cancer in younger women in Switzerland 1996-2009 : a longitudinal population-based study

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and a leading cause of death in younger women. METHODS: We analysed incidence, mortality and relative survival (RS) in women with BC aged 20-49 years at diagnosis, between 1996 and 2009 in Switzerland. Trends are reported as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: Our findings confirm a slight increase in the incidence of BC in younger Swiss women during the period 1996-2009. The increase was largest in women aged 20-39 years (EAPC 1.8%). Mortality decreased in both age groups with similar EAPCs. Survival was lowest among women 20-39 years (10-year RS 73.4%). We observed no notable differences in stage of disease at diagnosis that might explain these differences. CONCLUSIONS: The increased incidence and lower survival in younger women diagnosed with BC in Switzerland indicates possible differences in risk factors, tumour biology and treatment characteristics that require additional examination.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome: a population-based study on prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, clinical features, and survival in Europe.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive lethal ciliopathy characterized by the triad of cystic renal dysplasia, occipital encephalocele and postaxial polydactyly. We present the largest population-based epidemiological study to date using data provided by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network. The study population consisted of 191 cases of MKS identified between January 1990 and December 2011 in 34 European registries. The mean prevalence was 2.6 per 100 000 births in a subset of registries with good ascertainment. The prevalence was stable over time, but regional differences were observed. There were 145 (75.9%) terminations of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis, 13 (6.8%) fetal deaths, 33 (17.3%) live births. In addition to cystic kidneys (97.7%), encephalocele (83.8%) and polydactyly (87.3%), frequent features include other central nervous system anomalies (51.4%), fibrotic/cystic changes of the liver (65.5% of cases with post mortem examination) and orofacial clefts (31.8%). Various other anomalies were present in 64 (37%) patients. As nowadays most patients are detected very early in pregnancy when liver or kidney changes may not yet be developed or may be difficult to assess, none of the anomalies should be considered obligatory for the diagnosis. Most cases (90.2%) are diagnosed prenatally at 14.3±2.6 (range 11-36) gestational weeks and pregnancies are mainly terminated, reducing the number of LB to one-fifth of the total prevalence rate. Early diagnosis is important for timely counseling of affected couples regarding the option of pregnancy termination and prenatal genetic testing in future pregnancies.

Uses of cancer registries for public health and clinical research in Europe : results of the European Network of Cancer Registries survey among 161 population-based cancer registries during 2010-2012

AIM: To provide insight into cancer registration coverage, data access and use in Europe. This contributes to data and infrastructure harmonisation and will foster a more prominent role of cancer registries (CRs) within public health, clinical policy and cancer research, whether within or outside the European Research Area. METHODS: During 2010-12 an extensive survey of cancer registration practices and data use was conducted among 161 population-based CRs across Europe. Responding registries (66%) operated in 33 countries, including 23 with national coverage. RESULTS: Population-based oncological surveillance started during the 1940-50s in the northwest of Europe and from the 1970s to 1990s in other regions. The European Union (EU) protection regulations affected data access, especially in Germany and France, but less in the Netherlands or Belgium. Regular reports were produced by CRs on incidence rates (95%), survival (60%) and stage for selected tumours (80%). Evaluation of cancer control and quality of care remained modest except in a few dedicated CRs. Variables evaluated were support of clinical audits, monitoring adherence to clinical guidelines, improvement of cancer care and evaluation of mass cancer screening. Evaluation of diagnostic imaging tools was only occasional. CONCLUSION: Most population-based CRs are well equipped for strengthening cancer surveillance across Europe. Data quality and intensity of use depend on the role the cancer registry plays in the politico, oncomedical and public health setting within the country. Standard registration methodology could therefore not be translated to equivalent advances in cancer prevention and mass screening, quality of care, translational research of prognosis and survivorship across Europe. Further European collaboration remains essential to ensure access to data and comparability of the results.

Copeptin is associated with kidney length, renal function, and prevalence of simple cysts in a population-based study.

Arginine vasopressin (AVP) has a key role in osmoregulation by facilitating water transport in the collecting duct. Recent evidence suggests that AVP may have additional effects on renal function and favor cyst growth in polycystic kidney disease. Whether AVP also affects kidney structure in the general population is unknown. We analyzed the association of copeptin, an established surrogate for AVP, with parameters of renal function and morphology in a multicentric population-based cohort. Participants from families of European ancestry were randomly selected in three Swiss cities. We used linear multilevel regression analysis to explore the association of copeptin with renal function parameters as well as kidney length and the presence of simple renal cysts assessed by ultrasound examination. Copeptin levels were log-transformed. The 529 women and 481 men had median copeptin levels of 3.0 and 5.2 pmol/L, respectively (P<0.001). In multivariable analyses, the copeptin level was associated inversely with eGFR (β=-2.1; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], -3.3 to -0.8; P=0.002) and kidney length (β=-1.2; 95% CI, -1.9 to -0.4; P=0.003) but positively with 24-hour urinary albumin excretion (β=0.11; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.20; P=0.03) and urine osmolality (β=0.08; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.10; P<0.001). A positive association was found between the copeptin level and the presence of renal cysts (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.4; P=0.02). These results suggest that AVP has a pleiotropic role in renal function and may favor the development of simple renal cysts.

Reproducibility of Vertebral Fracture Assessment Readings From Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry in Both a Population-based and Clinical Cohort: Cohen's and Uniform Kappa.

Vertebral fracture assessments (VFAs) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry increase vertebral fracture detection in clinical practice and are highly reproducible. Measures of reproducibility are dependent on the frequency and distribution of the event. The aim of this study was to compare 2 reproducibility measures, reliability and agreement, in VFA readings in both a population-based and a clinical cohort. We measured agreement and reliability by uniform kappa and Cohen's kappa for vertebral reading and fracture identification: 360 VFAs from a population-based cohort and 85 from a clinical cohort. In the population-based cohort, 12% of vertebrae were unreadable. Vertebral fracture prevalence ranged from 3% to 4%. Inter-reader and intrareader reliability with Cohen's kappa was fair to good (0.35-0.71 and 0.36-0.74, respectively), with good inter-reader and intrareader agreement by uniform kappa (0.74-0.98 and 0.76-0.99, respectively). In the clinical cohort, 15% of vertebrae were unreadable, and vertebral fracture prevalence ranged from 7.6% to 8.1%. Inter-reader reliability was moderate to good (0.43-0.71), and the agreement was good (0.68-0.91). In clinical situations, the levels of reproducibility measured by the 2 kappa statistics are concordant, so that either could be used to measure agreement and reliability. However, if events are rare, as in a population-based cohort, we recommend evaluating reproducibility using the uniform kappa, as Cohen's kappa may be less accurate.

4B.05: Plasma Lasma copeptin is associated with insulin resistance in a Swiss population-based study

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies suggest that arginine vasopressin may have a role in metabolic syndrome (MetS) and diabetes by altering liver glycogenolysis, insulin, and glucagon secretion and pituitary ACTH release. We tested whether plasma copeptin, the stable C-terminal fragment of arginine vasopressin prohormone, was associated with insulin resistance and MetS in a Swiss population-based study. DESIGN AND METHOD: We analyzed data from the population-based Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. Copeptin was assessed by an immunoluminometric assay. Insulin resistance was derived from the HOMA model and calculated as follows: (FPI x FPG)/22.5, where FPI is fasting plasma insulin concentration (mU/L) and FPG fasting plasma glucose (mmol/L). Subjects were classified as having the MetS according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Mixed multivariate linear regression models were built to explore the association of insulin resistance with copeptin. In addition, multivariate logistic regression models were built to explore the association between MetS and copeptin. In the two analyses, adjustment was done for age, gender, center, tobacco and alcohol consumption, socioeconomic status, physical activity, intake of fruits and vegetables and 24 h urine flow rate. Copeptin was log-transformed for the analyses. RESULTS: Among the 1,089 subjects included in this analysis, 47% were male. Mean (SD) age and body mass index were 47.4 (17.6) years 25.0 (4.5) kg/m2. The prevalence of MetS was 10.5%. HOMA-IR was higher in men (median 1.3, IQR 0.7-2.1) than in women (median 1.0, IQR 0.5-1.6,P < 0.0001). Plasma copeptin was higher in men (median 5.2, IQR 3.7-7.8 pmol/L) than in women (median 3.0, IQR 2.2-4.3 pmol/L), P < 0.0001. HOMA-IR was positively associated with log-copeptin after full adjustment (β (95% CI) 0.19 (0.09-0.29), P < 0.001). MetS was not associated with copeptin after full adjustment (P = 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance, but not MetS, was associated with higher copeptin levels. Further studies should examine whether modifying pharmacologically the arginine vasopressin system might improve insulin resistance, thereby providing insight into the causal nature of this association.

1D.03: Inactive matrix GLA protein is associated with renal resistive index in a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: Renal resistive index (RRI) varies directly with renal vascular stiffness and pulse pressure. RRI correlates positively with arteriolosclerosis in damaged kidneys and predicts progressive renal dysfunction. Matrix Gla-protein (MGP) is a vascular calcification inhibitor that needs vitamin K to be activated. Inactive MGP, known as desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP), can be measured in plasma and has been associated with various cardiovascular (CV) markers, CV outcomes and mortality. In this study we hypothesize that increased RRI is associated with high levels of dp-ucMGP. DESIGN AND METHOD: We recruited participants via a multi-center family-based cross-sectional study in Switzerland exploring the role of genes and kidney hemodynamics in blood pressure regulation. Dp-ucMGP was quantified in plasma samples by sandwich ELISA. Renal doppler sonography was performed using a standardized protocol to measure RRIs on 3 segmental arteries in each kidney. The mean of the 6 measures was reported. Multiple regression analysis was performed to estimate associations between RRI and dp-ucMGP adjusting for sex, age, pulse pressure, mean pressure, renal function and other CV risk factors. RESULTS: We included 1035 participants in our analyses. Mean values were 0.64 ± 0.06 for RRI and 0.44 ± 0.21 (nmol/L) for dp-ucMGP. RRI was positively associated with dp-ucMGP both before and after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, pulse pressure, mean pressure, heart rate, renal function, low and high density lipoprotein, smoking status, diabetes, blood pressure and cholesterol lowering drugs, and history of CV disease (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: RRI is independently and positively associated with high levels of dp-ucMGP after adjustment for pulse pressure and common CV risk factors. Further studies are needed to determine if vitamin K supplementation can have a positive effect on renal vascular stiffness and kidney function.

May increasing incidence of breast cancer be related to overdiagnosis? : a population-based study

Background: Breast cancer is the first cause of cancer in women in Switzerland. While breast cancer mortality has sharply decreased in the two last decades in Switzerland, the incidence of breast cancer has increased during the same period. Various reasons for this increase have been hypothesized, such as the increase in the prevalence of obesity, the use of postmenauposal hormone replacement therapy, or a later age for having a first child. Overdiagnosis secondary to screening and any other forms of early detection procedures could be also involved. Analyses of breast cancer by stage can help evaluate if overdiagnosis could have contributed to the increase in the incidence of breast cancer. Methods: We used data from the Valais cancer registry at the Observatoire valaisan de la santé (www.ovs.ch). This population based registry collects data on all new (incident) cases of cancer diagnosed in women living in one canton of Switzerland, Valais. Cancers are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) and the stages are coded according to the TNM classification. Information on breast cancer stage (in situ: 0; invasive: I, II, III, IV) was available for all cases recorded between 1993 and 2011 (N=4246). Standardized rates of breast cancer were computed (direct standardization on European population).