Factores predictores de resultados en la prueba MIR en las universidades públicas: análisis de la cohorte 2008-2014

Objetivo. Analizar la influencia de algunos factores que podrían asociarse con el rendimiento y éxito de los médicos en la prueba MIR. Sujetos y métodos. Se analizaron los resultados obtenidos por los aspirantes médicos en la prueba MIR de la convocatoria 2014-2015 originarios de 29 facultades de medicina. Las variables de análisis incluidas fueron la nota de acceso a la universidad para el curso 2008-2009, el tamaño de las promociones de entrada, el número total de los presentados a la convocatoria MIR, la diferencia entre los presentados a la convocatoria y el tamaño de la promoción de entrada, y las variables de éxito, como el porcentaje de aspirantes que superaron la prueba y su distribución en los percentiles 23 y 73. Resultados. Ni la nota de acceso a la universidad ni el tamaño de la promoción de entrada se asociaron con las variables de éxito en los resultados. La diferencia entre presentados a la prueba y estudiantes de la promoción fue un indicador significativamente negativo del éxito en la prueba. Conclusiones. El principal y único factor determinante del éxito de los resultados en la prueba MIR es la diferencia entre el número de presentados a la prueba y el de los estudiantes de la cohorte inicial. Esta diferencia representa en su mayor parte a aquellos estudiantes que difieren su candidatura a la prueba por no obtener plaza en la convocatoria natural o que prefieren cambiar la obtenida en años anteriores.

Variaciones en el proceso de confirmación diagnóstica entre unidades de cribado poblacional de cáncer de mama

Objetivo: Analizar las variaciones en el proceso de confirmación diagnóstica entre unidades de cribado, las variaciones en los resultados de cada episodio y la relación entre las tasas de las diferentes pruebas de confirmación diagnóstica y las de detección de lesiones. Método: Estudio observacional de las variaciones de las tasas estandarizadas de pruebas diagnósticas y de detección de lesiones, en 34 unidades de cribado de los programas poblacionales de detección precoz de cáncer de mama, de tres comunidades autónomas, en el periodo de 2002 a 2011. Resultados: Las razones de variación entre los percentiles 25-75 en las tasas de realización de pruebas diagnósticas oscilaron entre 1,68 (recitaciones) y 3,39 (punción-aspiración con aguja fina). En las tasas de detección de lesiones benignas, carcinoma ductal in situ y cáncer invasivo fueron, respectivamente, 2,79, 1,99 y 1,36. Se encontró una relación positiva entre las tasas de realización de pruebas y las tasas de detección en punción-aspiración con aguja fina y lesiones benignas (R²: 0,53), punción-aspiración con aguja fina y carcinoma invasivo (R²: 0, 28), biopsias cerradas y lesiones benignas (R²: 0,64), biopsias cerradas y carcinoma ductal in situ (R²: 0,61), y biopsias cerradas y carcinoma invasivo (R²: 0,48). Conclusiones: Se observaron variaciones en la realización de pruebas invasivas entre las unidades de detección precoz de cáncer de mama de mayor magnitud que las de detección de lesiones. Las unidades con más pruebas de punción-aspiración con aguja fina tienen mayores tasas de detección de lesiones benignas, y las que realizan más biopsias cerradas detectan más lesiones benignas y cáncer.

Centile curves and reference values for height, body mass, body mass index and waist circumference of peruvian children and adolescents

This study aimed to provide height, body mass, BMI and waist circumference (WC) growth centile charts for school-children, aged 4–17 years, from central Peru, and to compare Peruvian data with North-American and Argentinean references. The sample consisted of 8753 children and adolescents (4130 boys and 4623 girls) aged 4 to 17 years, from four Peruvian cities: Barranco, La Merced, San Ramón and Junín. Height, body mass and WC were measured according to standardized techniques. Centile curves for height, body mass, BMI and WC were obtained separately for boys and girls using the LMS method. Student t-tests were used to compare mean values. Overall boys have higher median heights than girls, and the 50th percentile for body mass increases curvilinearly from 4 years of age onwards. In boys, the BMI and WC 50th percentiles increase linearly and in girls, the increase presents a curvilinear pattern. Peruvian children are shorter, lighter and have higher BMI than their counterparts in the U.S. and Argentina; in contrast, age and sex-specific WC values are lower. Height, body mass and WC of Peruvian children increased with age and variability was higher at older ages. The growth patterns for height, body mass, BMI and WC among Peruvian children were similar to those observed in North-American and Argentinean peers.

EUNIS habitat's thresholds for the Western coast of the Iberian Peninsula — A Portuguese case study

The European Nature Information System (EUNIS) has been implemented for the establishment of a marine European habitats inventory. Its hierarchical classification is defined and relies on environmental variables which primarily constrain biological communities (e.g. substrate types, sea energy level, depth and light penetration). The EUNIS habitat classification scheme relies on thresholds (e.g. fraction of light and energy) which are based on expert judgment or on the empirical analysis of the above environmental data. The present paper proposes to establish and validate an appropriate threshold for energy classes (high, moderate and low) and for subtidal biological zonation (infralittoral and circalittoral) suitable for EUNIS habitat classification of the Western Iberian coast. Kineticwave-induced energy and the fraction of photosynthetically available light exerted on the marine bottom were respectively assigned to the presence of kelp (Saccorhiza polyschides, Laminaria hyperborea and Laminaria ochroleuca) and seaweed species in general. Both data were statistically described, ordered fromthe largest to the smallest and percentile analyseswere independently performed. The threshold between infralittoral and circalittoral was based on the first quartile while the ‘moderate energy’ class was established between the 12.5 and 87.5 percentiles. To avoid data dependence on sampling locations and assess the confidence interval a bootstrap technique was applied. According to this analysis,more than 75% of seaweeds are present at locations where more than 3.65% of the surface light reaches the sea bottom. The range of energy levels estimated using S. polyschides data, indicate that on the IberianWest coast the ‘moderate energy’ areas are between 0.00303 and 0.04385 N/m2 of wave-induced energy. The lack of agreement between different studies in different regions of Europe suggests the need for more standardization in the future. However, the obtained thresholds in the present study will be very useful in the near future to implement and establish the Iberian EUNIS habitats inventory.

Centile curves and reference values for height, body mass, body mass index and waist circumference of peruvian children and adolescents

This study aimed to provide height, body mass, BMI and waist circumference (WC) growth centile charts for school-children, aged 4–17 years, from central Peru, and to compare Peruvian data with North-American and Argentinean references. The sample consisted of 8753 children and adolescents (4130 boys and 4623 girls) aged 4 to 17 years, from four Peruvian cities: Barranco, La Merced, San Ramón and Junín. Height, body mass and WC were measured according to standardized techniques. Centile curves for height, body mass, BMI and WC were obtained separately for boys and girls using the LMS method. Student t-tests were used to compare mean values. Overall boys have higher median heights than girls, and the 50th percentile for body mass increases curvilinearly from 4 years of age onwards. In boys, the BMI and WC 50th percentiles increase linearly and in girls, the increase presents a curvilinear pattern. Peruvian children are shorter, lighter and have higher BMI than their counterparts in the U.S. and Argentina; in contrast, age and sex-specific WC values are lower. Height, body mass and WC of Peruvian children increased with age and variability was higher at older ages. The growth patterns for height, body mass, BMI and WC among Peruvian children were similar to those observed in North-American and Argentinean peers.

Normative reference values for the 20-meter shuttlerun test in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk.

LMS tables for waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio among Colombian children and adolescents: The FUPRECOL study

Background: Indices predictive of central obesity include waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). The aims of this study were 1) to establish a Colombian youth smoothed centile charts and LMS tables for WC and WHtR and 2) to evaluate the utility of these parameters as predictors of overweight and obesity. Method: A cross-sectional study whose sample population comprised 7954 healthy Colombian schoolchildren [boys n=3460 and girls n=4494, mean (standard deviation) age 12.8 (2.3) years old]. Weight, height, body mass index (BMI), WC and WHtR and its percentiles were calculated. Appropriate cut-offs point of WC and WHtR for overweight and obesity, as defined by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) definitions, were selected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The discriminating power of WC and WHtR was expressed as area under the curve (AUC). Results: Reference values for WC and WHtR are presented. Mean WC increased and WHtR decreased with age for both genders. We found a moderate positive correlation between WC and BMI (r= 0.756, P < 0.01) and WHtR and BMI (r= 0.604, P < 0.01). The ROC analysis showed a high discrimination power in the identification of overweight and obesity for both measures in our sample population. Overall, WHtR was slightly a better predictor for overweight/obesity (AUC 95% CI 0.868-0.916) than the WC (AUC 95% CI 0.862-0.904). Conclusion: This paper presents the first sex- and age-specific WC and WHtR percentiles for both measures among Colombian children and adolescents aged 9–17.9 years. By providing LMS tables for Latin-American people based on Colombian reference data, we hope to provide quantitative tools for the study of obesity and its comorbidities.

Prevalencia y factores asociados al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en escolares de 9 a 17 años de Bogotá, Colombia: Estudio FUPRECOL

Objetivo: Determinar la prevalencia y los factores asociados al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en una población escolar de Bogotá, Colombia, pertenecientes al estudio FUPRECOL. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo y transversal, realizado en 8136 niños y adolescentes en edad escolar entre 9 y 17 años de Bogotá, Colombia. El peso, la estatura, el índice de masa corporal (IMC), la circunferencia de cintura y el porcentaje de grasa, se recogieron como marcadores antropométricos y de composición corporal. El consumo de bebidas azucaradas (bebidas carbonatadas, jugos ultra-procesados y/o Té), y los factores asociados (sexo, edad, obesidad abdominal, clasificación del IMC, grado de estudios de la madre/padre, y nivel nutricional por cuestionario “Krece plus”), se recogieron por encuesta estructurada. Se establecieron asociaciones mediante la construcción de modelos de regresión logística simple. Resultados: De la población general, el 58,4% eran mujeres. En función al sexo, los varones acusaron la mayor ingesta de “bebidas carbonatadas” con una frecuencia semanal y diaria de 70,9% y 21,0%, respectivamente, seguido de “jugos ultra- procesados” (64,4% semanal vs. 11,3% diario). En ambos sexos, la prevalencia de obesidad abdominal fue mayor en los escolares que respondieron consumir diariamente “bebidas carbonatadas” (23,3%), “jugos ultra-procesados” (13,2%) y “bebidas Té” (9,7%). La edad, el grado de educación de los padres y el nivel nutricional, se asociaron como factores predisponentes al consumo diario de “bebidas carbonatadas”. Conclusión: El consumo de bebidas azucaradas cambia por los factores analizados. Se recomiendan intervenciones integrales en las que estén involucrados los componentes nutricional y educativo entre los niños y adolescentes de Bogotá, Colombia.

Advanced statistical models for the segregation, identification and measurement of coexisting sound sources

Long-term monitoring of acoustical environments is gaining popularity thanks to the relevant amount of scientific and engineering insights that it provides. The increasing interest is due to the constant growth of storage capacity and computational power to process large amounts of data. In this perspective, machine learning (ML) provides a broad family of data-driven statistical techniques to deal with large databases. Nowadays, the conventional praxis of sound level meter measurements limits the global description of a sound scene to an energetic point of view. The equivalent continuous level Leq represents the main metric to define an acoustic environment, indeed. Finer analyses involve the use of statistical levels. However, acoustic percentiles are based on temporal assumptions, which are not always reliable. A statistical approach, based on the study of the occurrences of sound pressure levels, would bring a different perspective to the analysis of long-term monitoring. Depicting a sound scene through the most probable sound pressure level, rather than portions of energy, brought more specific information about the activity carried out during the measurements. The statistical mode of the occurrences can capture typical behaviors of specific kinds of sound sources. The present work aims to propose an ML-based method to identify, separate and measure coexisting sound sources in real-world scenarios. It is based on long-term monitoring and is addressed to acousticians focused on the analysis of environmental noise in manifold contexts. The presented method is based on clustering analysis. Two algorithms, Gaussian Mixture Model and K-means clustering, represent the main core of a process to investigate different active spaces monitored through sound level meters. The procedure has been applied in two different contexts: university lecture halls and offices. The proposed method shows robust and reliable results in describing the acoustic scenario and it could represent an important analytical tool for acousticians.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.