A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Objectives, Cost Efficiency, and Multivariate Stochastic Control

This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty. To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations between reductions in the multiple pollutants.

Using Spatiotemporal Methods to Fill Gaps In Energy Usage Interval Data

Researchers analyzing spatiotemporal or panel data, which varies both in location and over time, often find that their data has holes or gaps. This thesis explores alternative methods for filling those gaps and also suggests a set of techniques for evaluating those gap-filling methods to determine which works best.

Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models

The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Multivariate analysis for the classification and differentiation of Madeira wines according to main grape varieties

In order to differentiate and characterize Madeira wines according to main grape varieties, the volatile composition (higher alcohols, fatty acids, ethyl esters and carbonyl compounds) was determined for 36 monovarietal Madeira wine samples elaborated from Boal, Malvazia, Sercial and Verdelho white grape varieties. The study was carried out by headspace solid-phase microextraction technique (HS-SPME), in dynamic mode, coupled with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). Corrected peak area data for 42 analytes from the above mentioned chemical groups was used for statistical purposes. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in order to determine the main sources of variability present in the data sets and to establish the relation between samples (objects) and volatile compounds (variables). The data obtained by GC–MS shows that the most important contributions to the differentiation of Boal wines are benzyl alcohol and (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol. Ethyl octadecanoate, (Z)-hex-3-en-1-ol and benzoic acid are the major contributions in Malvazia wines and 2-methylpropan-1-ol is associated to Sercial wines. Verdelho wines are most correlated with 5-(ethoxymethyl)-furfural, nonanone and cis-9-ethyldecenoate. A 96.4% of prediction ability was obtained by the application of stepwise linear discriminant analysis (SLDA) using the 19 variables that maximise the variance of the initial data set.

Correlations among behavior, performance and environment in broiler breeders using multivariate analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A simple approach to integrate the ecotoxicological and chemical data for the establishment of environmental risk levels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of development traits of beef buffalo in Brazil using multivariate analysis

The buffalo population in Brazil increased about 12.9% between 1998 and 2003, to 2.8 million head, evidencing the importance of this species for the country. The objective this work was evaluation of animal growth using multivariate analysis. The data were from 2,944 water buffalo from 10 herds raised in pasture conditions in Brazil. Principal components and genetic distances were estimated using proc PRINCOMP and proc CANDISC in SAS (SAS Inst. Inc. Cary, NC, USA). Variables analyzed were birth weight (BW), age at weaning (AW), weaning weight (WT), weight adjusted to 205 d (W205), total gain between BW and WT (TG), daily gain between BW and WT (DG), weight adjusted to 365 d (W365), total gain between WT and W365 (TG3), daily gain between WT and W365 (TGD3), weight adjusted to 550 d (W550) and weight adjusted to 730 d (W730). Means and standard deviations for each variable were 39.4 +/- 3.2 kg, 225.6 +/- 38.8 d, 209.4 +/- 39.4 kg, 195.4 +/- 30.2 kg, 157.4 +/- 32.0 kg, 0.77 +/- 0.16 kg/d, 282.0 +/- 43.5 kg, 73.9 +/- 33.9 kg, 0.53 +/- 0.21 kg/d, 406.8 +/- 67.9 kg, and 468.2 +/- 70.6 kg, respectively. The eigenvalues to four first principal components were 5.29, 2.54, 1.66, 1.01, and justify 48%, 23%, 15% and 9%, respectively, with a total cumulative 95%. We created an index using the first principal component which is Y. 0.0552 BW + 0.0438 AW + 0.3142 WT + 0.3549 W205 + 0.3426 TG + 0.3426 DG + 0.4070 W365- 0.1531 TG3 - 0.2059 TGD3 - 0.3833 W550 - 0.3966 W730. This index accounted for 48% the variation in the correlation matrix. This principal component emphasizes early growth of the animal. Estimates the pair-wise squared distances between herds, D2(i vertical bar j)= ((x) over bar (i)-(x) over bar (j))' cov(-1)((x) over bar (i)-(x) over bar (j)), using with basis the average of weight of animals, showed the largest distance between herds eight (Murrah: DF) and seven (Murrah: Amazon) and the closest distance between herds one (Mediterranean - RS) and five (Jafarabadi - SP).

Historical biogeography and conservation of the golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) in northwestern Iberia: integrating ecological, phenotypic and phylogeographic data

The golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) is an endemic species inhabiting stream-side habitats in mountainous areas in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. This salamandrid is listed in the IUCN Red Data Book as a threatened species. The combination of bioclimatic modeling of the species distribution and multivariate analysis of genetic and phenotypic data strengthens previous hypotheses concerning the historical biogeography of C. lusitanica: the Pleistocene subdivision of the species' range and a process of postglacial recolonization. Discrepancies between bioclimatic modeling predictions and the present-day distribution suggest that the species may still be expanding its range northwards. We propose the identification of two distinct units for the conservation of the species and suggest that this information should be taken into account in defining key areas for conservation in the Iberian Peninsula.

Multivariate searches for single top quark production with the D0 detector

We present a search for electroweak production of single top quarks in the s-channel (p (p) over bar -> t (b) over bar +X) and t-channel (p (p) over bar -> tq (b) over bar +X) modes. We have analyzed 230 pb(-1) of data collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider at a center-of-mass energy of root s=1.96 TeV. No evidence for a single top quark signal is found. We set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross sections, based on binned likelihoods formed from a neural network output. The observed (expected) limits are 6.4 pb (4.5 pb) in the s-channel and 5.0 pb (5.8 pb) in the t-channel.

Search for single top quarks in the tau plus jets channel using 4.8 fb(-1) of p(p)over-bar collision data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Geochemical characterization of heavy metal contaminated area using multivariate factorial kriging

This paper describes a geostatistical method, known as factorial kriging analysis, which is well suited for analyzing multivariate spatial information. The method involves multivariate variogram modeling, principal component analysis, and cokriging. It uses several separate correlation structures, each corresponding to a specific spatial scale, and yields a set of regionalized factors summarizing the main features of the data for each spatial scale. This method is applied to an area of high manganese-ore mining activity in Amapa State, North Brazil. Two scales of spatial variation (0.33 and 2.0 km) are identified and interpreted. The results indicate that, for the short-range structure, manganese, arsenic, iron, and cadmium are associated with human activities due to the mining work, while for the long-range structure, the high aluminum, selenium, copper, and lead concentrations, seem to be related to the natural environment. At each scale, the correlation structure is analyzed, and regionalized factors are estimated by cokriging and then mapped.

Carbon Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Profiles coupled to Partial Least-Squares Multivariate Regression for Prediction of Several Physicochemical Parameters of Brazilian Commercial Gasoline

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Multivariate calibrations on H-1 NMR profiles for prediction of physicochemical parameters of Brazilian commercial gasoline

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)