Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Bowing the violin : a case study for auditory-motor pattern modelling in the context of music performance

This project addresses methodological and technological challenges in the development of multi-modal data acquisition and analysis methods for the representation of instrumental playing technique in music performance through auditory-motor patterning models. The case study is violin playing: a multi-modal database of violin performances has been constructed by recording different musicians while playing short exercises on different violins. The exercise set and recording protocol have been designed to sample the space defined by dynamics (from piano to forte) and tone (from sul tasto to sul ponticello), for each bow stroke type being played on each of the four strings (three different pitches per string) at two different tempi. The data, containing audio, video, and motion capture streams, has been processed and segmented to facilitate upcoming analyses. From the acquired motion data, the positions of the instrument string ends and the bow hair ribbon ends are tracked and processed to obtain a number of bowing descriptors suited for a detailed description and analysis of the bow motion patterns taking place during performance. Likewise, a number of sound perceptual attributes are computed from the audio streams. Besides the methodology and the implementation of a number of data acquisition tools, this project introduces preliminary results from analyzing bowing technique on a multi-modal violin performance database that is unique in its class. A further contribution of this project is the data itself, which will be made available to the scientific community through the repovizz platform.

Estimation of existing cable systems in generator-busbar unit and choice the optimal solution for its modernization

The aim of this master’s thesis is to develop an algorithm to calculate the cable network for heat and power station CHGRES. This algorithm includes important aspect which has an influence on the cable network reliability. Moreover, according to developed algorithm, the optimal solution for modernization cable system from economical and technical point of view was obtained. The conditions of existing cable lines show that replacement is necessary. Otherwise, the fault situation would happen. In this case company would loss not only money but also its prestige. As a solution, XLPE single core cables are more profitable than other types of cable considered in this work. Moreover, it is presented the dependence of value of short circuit current on number of 10/110 kV transformers connected in parallel between main grid and considered 10 kV busbar and how it affects on final decision. Furthermore, the losses of company in power (capacity) market due to fault situation are presented. These losses are commensurable with investment to replace existing cable system.

Genetic structure and diversity of Copaifera langsdorffii Desf. in Cerrado fragments of the São Paulo State, Brazil

The loss of large areas of Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) in Brazil can lead to reduced biodiversity and to the extinction of species. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the genetic fragility of populations of Copaifera langsdorffii Desf exposed to different anthropic conditions in fragments of Cerrado in the state of São Paulo. The study was carried out in two Experimental Stations operated by the Forest Institute (Assis and Itirapina), in one fully protected conservation unit (Pedregulho) and in one private property (Brotas). Analyses were conducted using leaf samples from 353 adult specimens and eight pairs of microsatellite loci. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 13 to 15 in all populations, but the mean number of effective alleles was approximately half this value (7.2 to 9-1). Observed heterozygosity was significant and lower than the expected in all populations. Consequently, all populations deviated from Hardy-Weinberg expected frequencies. Fixation indexes were significant for all populations, with the Pedregulho population having the lowest value (0.189) and Itirapina having the highest (0.283). The analysis of spatial genetic structure detected family structures at distance classes of 20 to 65 m in the populations studied. No clones were detected in the populations. Estimates of effective population size were low, but the area occupied by each population studied was large enough for conservation, medium and long term. Recent reductions or bottlenecks were detected in all four populations. Mean Gst’ (genetic divergence) indicated that most of the variation was within populations. Cluster structure analysis based on the genotypes detected K= 4 clusters with distinct allele frequencies patterns. The genetic differentiation observed among populations is consistent with the hypothesis of genetic and geographic isolation. Therefore, it is essential to adopt conservation strategies that raise the gene flow between fragments.

Accuracy Analysis of Frequency Converter Estimates in Diagnostic Applications

Transportation of fluids is one of the most common and energy intensive processes in the industrial and HVAC sectors. Pumping systems are frequently subject to engineering malpractice when dimensioned, which can lead to poor operational efficiency. Moreover, pump monitoring requires dedicated measuring equipment, which imply costly investments. Inefficient pump operation and improper maintenance can increase energy costs substantially and even lead to pump failure. A centrifugal pump is commonly driven by an induction motor. Driving the induction motor with a frequency converter can diminish energy consumption in pump drives and provide better control of a process. In addition, induction machine signals can also be estimated by modern frequency converters, dispensing with the use of sensors. If the estimates are accurate enough, a pump can be modelled and integrated into the frequency converter control scheme. This can open the possibility of joint motor and pump monitoring and diagnostics, thereby allowing the detection of reliability-reducing operating states that can lead to additional maintenance costs. The goal of this work is to study the accuracy of rotational speed, torque and shaft power estimates calculated by a frequency converter. Laboratory tests were performed in order to observe estimate behaviour in both steady-state and transient operation. An induction machine driven by a vector-controlled frequency converter, coupled with another induction machine acting as load was used in the tests. The estimated quantities were obtained through the frequency converter’s Trend Recorder software. A high-precision, HBM T12 torque-speed transducer was used to measure the actual values of the aforementioned variables. The effect of the flux optimization energy saving feature on the estimate quality was also studied. A processing function was developed in MATLAB for comparison of the obtained data. The obtained results confirm the suitability of this particular converter to provide accurate enough estimates for pumping applications.

Energy-efficient control strategies for variable speed driven parallel pumping systems based on pump operation point monitoring with frequency converters

The pumping processes requiring wide range of flow are often equipped with parallelconnected centrifugal pumps. In parallel pumping systems, the use of variable speed control allows that the required output for the process can be delivered with a varying number of operated pump units and selected rotational speed references. However, the optimization of the parallel-connected rotational speed controlled pump units often requires adaptive modelling of both parallel pump characteristics and the surrounding system in varying operation conditions. The available information required for the system modelling in typical parallel pumping applications such as waste water treatment and various cooling and water delivery pumping tasks can be limited, and the lack of real-time operation point monitoring often sets limits for accurate energy efficiency optimization. Hence, alternatives for easily implementable control strategies which can be adopted with minimum system data are necessary. This doctoral thesis concentrates on the methods that allow the energy efficient use of variable speed controlled parallel pumps in system scenarios in which the parallel pump units consist of a centrifugal pump, an electric motor, and a frequency converter. Firstly, the suitable operation conditions for variable speed controlled parallel pumps are studied. Secondly, methods for determining the output of each parallel pump unit using characteristic curve-based operation point estimation with frequency converter are discussed. Thirdly, the implementation of the control strategy based on real-time pump operation point estimation and sub-optimization of each parallel pump unit is studied. The findings of the thesis support the idea that the energy efficiency of the pumping can be increased without the installation of new, more efficient components in the systems by simply adopting suitable control strategies. An easily implementable and adaptive control strategy for variable speed controlled parallel pumping systems can be created by utilizing the pump operation point estimation available in modern frequency converters. Hence, additional real-time flow metering, start-up measurements, and detailed system model are unnecessary, and the pumping task can be fulfilled by determining a speed reference for each parallel-pump unit which suggests the energy efficient operation of the pumping system.

Estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters in a segregant population of rice irrigated by continuous flooding

Estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters were obtained by using data from families of a recurrent selection program in rice. An experiment using population CNA-IRAT 4ME/1/1 was conducted at two locations (Lambari and Cambuquira) in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. At Lambari, families S0:2 and S0:3 were assessed during crop seasons 1992/1993 and 1993/1994, respectively. In the Cambuquira trial, only S0:3 families were tested in 1993/1994. The experimental design was a 10 x 10 lattice with three replications. The following traits were assessed: grain yield (GY), mean number of days to flowering (FL), plant height (PH), and the incidence of neck blast (NB) caused by Pyricularia grisea and grain staining (GS) caused by Drechslera oryzae. This population proved to be promising for recurrent selection, as it had high average yield and genetic variability. Heritability estimates obtained using variance components were generally greater than estimates of realized heritability, and heritability obtained by parent-offspring regression

Influence of lactation on motor activity and elevated plus maze behavior

Lactating rats show less noise-induced freezing and fewer inhibitory responses on the 6th day post-delivery when submitted to water and food deprivation in a classical conflict paradigm. Lactating mice go more often to the illuminated chamber in a light-dark cage and stay longer in it than virgin females. The present study was designed to assess the influence of this physiological state, i.e. lactation, on the elevated plus maze (EPM) and open-field behavior in adult female rats. Total (TL) and central (CL) locomotion and rearing (RF) frequencies were measured in an open-field. Number of entries into the open and closed arms as well as the time spent in each of these arms were measured in the EPM. Percent time spent and number of entries into the open arms were calculated and compared. In the open-field, TL was significantly decreased (115 ± 10.6 vs 150 ± 11.6) while CL and RF did not differ from those presented by virgin rats. In the EPM, lactating rats displayed a significant reduction in percent time spent (10.9 ± 1.5 vs 17.4 ± 2.3) in the open arms as well as a tendency to a reduction in percent entries into the open arms (35.7 ± 4.7 vs 45.7 ± 4.3). These results show that the physiological state of lactation modulates the open-field and EPM behaviors in rats

The oral motor capacity and feeding performance of preterm newborns at the time of transition to oral feeding

The objective of the present study was to determine the oral motor capacity and the feeding performance of preterm newborn infants when they were permitted to start oral feeding. This was an observational and prospective study conducted on 43 preterm newborns admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of UFSM, RS, Brazil. Exclusion criteria were the presence of head and neck malformations, genetic disease, neonatal asphyxia, intracranial hemorrhage, and kernicterus. When the infants were permitted to start oral feeding, non-nutritive sucking was evaluated by a speech therapist regarding force (strong vs weak), rhythm (rapid vs slow), presence of adaptive oral reflexes (searching, sucking and swallowing) and coordination between sucking, swallowing and respiration. Feeding performance was evaluated on the basis of competence (defined by rate of milk intake, mL/min) and overall transfer (percent ingested volume/total volume ordered). The speech therapist's evaluation showed that 33% of the newborns presented weak sucking, 23% slow rhythm, 30% absence of at least one adaptive oral reflex, and 14% with no coordination between sucking, swallowing and respiration. Mean feeding competence was greater in infants with strong sucking fast rhythm. The presence of sucking-swallowing-respiration coordination decreased the days for an overall transfer of 100%. Evaluation by a speech therapist proved to be a useful tool for the safe indication of the beginning of oral feeding for premature infants.

Lesion of the subthalamic nucleus reverses motor deficits but not death of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons in a rat 6-hydroxydopamine-lesion model of Parkinson's disease

The objective of the present study was to determine whether lesion of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) promoted by N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) would rescue nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) injection into the medial forebrain bundle (MFB). Initially, 16 mg 6-OHDA (6-OHDA group) or vehicle (artificial cerebrospinal fluid - aCSF; Sham group) was infused into the right MFB of adult male Wistar rats. Fifteen days after surgery, the 6-OHDA and SHAM groups were randomly subdivided and received ipsilateral injection of either 60 mM NMDA or aCSF in the right STN. Additionally, a control group was not submitted to stereotaxic surgery. Five groups of rats were studied: 6-OHDA/NMDA, 6-OHDA/Sham, Sham/NMDA, Sham/Sham, and Control. Fourteen days after injection of 6-OHDA, rats were submitted to the rotational test induced by apomorphine (0.1 mg/kg, ip) and to the open-field test. The same tests were performed again 14 days after NMDA-induced lesion of the STN. The STN lesion reduced the contralateral turns induced by apomorphine and blocked the progression of motor impairment in the open-field test in 6-OHDA-treated rats. However, lesion of the STN did not prevent the reduction of striatal concentrations of dopamine and metabolites or the number of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after 6-OHDA lesion. Therefore, STN lesion is able to reverse motor deficits after severe 6-OHDA-induced lesion of the nigrostriatal pathway, but does not protect or rescue dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta.

Percutaneous sciatic nerve block with tramadol induces analgesia and motor blockade in two animal pain models

Local anesthetic efficacy of tramadol has been reported following intradermal application. Our aim was to investigate the effect of perineural tramadol as the sole analgesic in two pain models. Male Wistar rats (280-380 g; N = 5/group) were used in these experiments. A neurostimulation-guided sciatic nerve block was performed and 2% lidocaine or tramadol (1.25 and 5 mg) was perineurally injected in two different animal pain models. In the flinching behavior test, the number of flinches was evaluated and in the plantar incision model, mechanical and heat thresholds were measured. Motor effects of lidocaine and tramadol were quantified and a motor block score elaborated. Tramadol, 1.25 mg, completely blocked the first and reduced the second phase of the flinching behavior test. In the plantar incision model, tramadol (1.25 mg) increased both paw withdrawal latency in response to radiant heat (8.3 ± 1.1, 12.7 ± 1.8, 8.4 ± 0.8, and 11.1 ± 3.3 s) and mechanical threshold in response to von Frey filaments (459 ± 82.8, 447.5 ± 91.7, 320.1 ± 120, 126.43 ± 92.8 mN) at 5, 15, 30, and 60 min, respectively. Sham block or contralateral sciatic nerve block did not differ from perineural saline injection throughout the study in either model. The effect of tramadol was not antagonized by intraperitoneal naloxone. High dose tramadol (5 mg) blocked motor function as well as 2% lidocaine. In conclusion, tramadol blocks nociception and motor function in vivo similar to local anesthetics.

Fusion of Data from Quadcopter’s Inertial Measurement Unit Using Complementary Filter

A quadcopter is a helicopter with four rotors, which is mechanically simple device, but requires complex electrical control for each motor. Control system needs accurate information about quadcopter’s attitude in order to achieve stable flight. The goal of this bachelor’s thesis was to research how this information could be obtained. Literature review revealed that most of the quadcopters, whose source-code is available, use a complementary filter or some derivative of it to fuse data from a gyroscope, an accelerometer and often also a magnetometer. These sensors combined are called an Inertial Measurement Unit. This thesis focuses on calculating angles from each sensor’s data and fusing these with a complementary filter. On the basis of literature review and measurements using a quadcopter, the proposed filter provides sufficiently accurate attitude data for flight control system. However, a simple complementary filter has one significant drawback – it works reliably only when the quadcopter is hovering or moving at a constant speed. The reason is that an accelerometer can’t be used to measure angles accurately if linear acceleration is present. This problem can be fixed using some derivative of a complementary filter like an adaptive complementary filter or a Kalman filter, which are not covered in this thesis.

Examining the Learning Effects of Segmented Model Demonstrations on the Motor & Cognitive Learning of the Basketball Jump Shot

The purpose of the present experiment was to determine whether learning is optimized when providing the opportunity to observe either segments, or the whole basketball jump shot. Participants performed 50 jump-shots from the free throw line during acquisition, and returned one day later for a 10 shot retention test and a memory recall test of the jump-shot technique. Shot accuracy was assessed on a 5-point scale and technique assessed on a 7-point scale. The number of components recalled correctly by participants assessed mental representation. Retention results showed superior shot technique and recall success for those participants provided control over the frequency and type of modelled information compared to participants not provided control. Furthermore, participants in the self-condition utilized the part-model information more frequently than whole-model information highlighting the effectiveness of providing the learner control over viewing multiple segments of a skill compared to only watching the whole model.

Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors

This paper studies testing for a unit root for large n and T panels in which the cross-sectional units are correlated. To model this cross-sectional correlation, we assume that the data is generated by an unknown number of unobservable common factors. We propose unit root tests in this environment and derive their (Gaussian) asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of a unit root and local alternatives. We show that these tests have significant asymptotic power when the model has no incidental trends. However, when there are incidental trends in the model and it is necessary to remove heterogeneous deterministic components, we show that these tests have no power against the same local alternatives. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we provide evidence on the finite sample properties of these new tests.

Épidémiologie spatiale de la campylobactériose au Québec

La campylobactériose représente la principale cause de gastro-entérite bactérienne dans les pays industrialisés. L’épidémiologie de la maladie est complexe, impliquant plusieurs sources et voies de transmission. L’objectif principal de ce projet était d’étudier les facteurs environnementaux impliqués dans le risque de campylobactériose et les aspects méthodologiques pertinents à cette problématique à partir des cas humains déclarés au Québec (Canada) entre 1996 et 2006. Un schéma conceptuel des sources et voies de transmission de Campylobacter a d’abord été proposé suivant une synthèse des connaissances épidémiologiques tirées d’une revue de littérature extensive. Le risque d’une récurrence de campylobactériose a ensuite été décrit selon les caractéristiques des patients à partir de tables de survie et de modèles de régression logistique. Comparativement au risque de campylobactériose dans la population générale, le risque d’un épisode récurrent était plus élevé pour les quatre années suivant un épisode. Ce risque était similaire entre les genres, mais plus élevé pour les personnes de régions rurales et plus faible pour les enfants de moins de quatre ans. Ces résultats suggèrent une absence d’immunité durable ou de résilience clinique suivant un épisode déclaré et/ou une ré-exposition périodique. L’objectif suivant portait sur le choix de l’unité géographique dans les études écologiques. Neuf critères mesurables ont été proposés, couvrant la pertinence biologique, la communicabilité, l’accès aux données, la distribution des variables d’exposition, des cas et de la population, ainsi que la forme de l’unité. Ces critères ont été appliqués à des unités géographiques dérivées de cadre administratif, sanitaire ou naturel. La municipalité affichait la meilleure performance, étant donné les objectifs spécifiques considérés. Les associations entre l’incidence de campylobactériose et diverses variables (densité de volailles, densité de ruminants, abattoirs, température, précipitations, densité de population, pourcentage de diplomation) ont ensuite été comparées pour sept unités géographiques différentes en utilisant des modèles conditionnels autorégressifs. Le nombre de variables statistiquement significatives variait selon le degré d’agrégation, mais la direction des associations était constante. Les unités plus agrégées tendaient à démontrer des forces d’association plus élevées, mais plus variables, à l’exception de l’abattoir. Cette étude a souligné l’importance du choix de l’unité géographique d’analyse lors d’une utilisation d’un devis d’étude écologique. Finalement, les associations entre l’incidence de campylobactériose et des caractéristiques environnementales ont été décrites selon quatre groupes d’âge et deux périodes saisonnières d’après une étude écologique. Un modèle de Poisson multi-niveau a été utilisé pour la modélisation, avec la municipalité comme unité. Une densité de ruminant élevée était positivement associée avec l’incidence de campylobactériose, avec une force d’association diminuant selon l’âge. Une densité de volailles élevée et la présence d’un abattoir de volailles à fort volume d’abattage étaient également associées à une incidence plus élevée, mais seulement pour les personnes de 16 à 34 ans. Des associations ont également été détectées avec la densité de population et les précipitations. À l’exception de la densité de population, les associations étaient constantes entre les périodes saisonnières. Un contact étroit avec les animaux de ferme explique le plus vraisemblablement les associations trouvées. La spécificité d’âge et de saison devrait être considérée dans les études futures sur la campylobactériose et dans l’élaboration de mesures préventives.