Risk-based Modeling to Develop Zoning Criteria for Land-use Near Canadian Airports

Land development in the vicinity of airports often leads to land-use that can attract birds that are hazardous to aviation operations. For this reason, certain forms of land-use have traditionally been discouraged within prescribed distances of Canadian airports. However, this often leads to an unrealistic prohibition of land-use in the vicinity of airports located in urban settings. Furthermore, it is often unclear that the desired safety goals have been achieved. This paper describes a model that was created to assist in the development of zoning regulations for a future airport site in Canada. The framework links land-use to bird-related safety-risks and aircraft operations by categorizing the predictable relationships between: (i) different land uses found in urbanized and urbanizing settings near airports; (ii) bird species; and (iii) the different safety-risks to aircraft during various phases of flight. The latter is assessed relative to the runway approach and departure paths. Bird species are ranked to reflect the potential severity of an impact with an aircraft (using bird weight, flocking characteristics, and flight behaviours). These criteria are then employed to chart bird-related safety-risks relative to runway reference points. Each form of land-use is categorized to reflect the degree to which it attracts hazardous bird species. From this information, hazard and risk matrices have been developed and applied to the future airport setting, thereby providing risk-based guidance on appropriate land-uses that range from prohibited to acceptable. The framework has subsequently been applied to an existing Canadian airport, and is currently being adapted for national application. The framework provides a risk-based and science-based approach that offers municipalities and property owner’s flexibility in managing the risks to aviation related to their land use.

Insights into the morphology of the Serra da Cangalha impact structure from geophysical modeling

Forward modeling is commonly applied to gravity field data of impact structures to determine the main gravity anomaly sources. In this context, we have developed 2.5-D gravity models of the Serra da Cangalha impact structure for the purpose of investigating geological bodies/structures underneath the crater. Interpretation of the models was supported by ground magnetic data acquired along profiles, as well as by high resolution aeromagnetic data. Ground magnetic data reveal the presence of short-wavelength anomalies probably related to shallow magnetic sources that could have been emplaced during the cratering process. Aeromagnetic data show that the basement underneath the crater occurs at an average depth of about 1.9 km, whereas in the region beneath the central uplift it is raised to 0.51 km below the current surface. These depths are also supported by 2.5-D gravity models showing a gentle relief for the basement beneath the central uplift area. Geophysical data were used to provide further constraints for numeral modeling of crater formation that provided important information on the structural modification that affected the rocks underneath the crater, as well as on shock-induced modifications of target rocks. The results showed that the morphology is consistent with the current observations of the crater and that Serra da Cangalha was formed by a meteorite of approximately 1.4 km diameter striking at 12 km s-1.

The revision of the Brazilian Forest Act: increased deforestation or a historic step towards balancing agricultural development and nature conservation?

Almost two-thirds of the Brazilian territory still has prevalence of natural vegetation. Although not all pristine, much of these areas have high conservation value. 170 million hectare (Mha) of the natural vegetation is located within Federal and State protected areas. Most of the remaining 367 Mha is on private agriculture lands, where the Forest Act is the most important legal framework for conservation. In July 2010, the Brazilian parliament began the analysis of a substitutive legislation for the Forest Act. The main motivations for the revision is that, on the one hand, it has been found ineffective in protecting natural vegetation, and on the other hand, it is perceived as a barrier against development in the agriculture sector. The substitutive Forest Act, as it presently stands, does not represent a balance between existing standpoints and objectives; it may drive development towards either more private protection through market-driven compensation actions, or increased deforestation and less nature protection/restoration. This article uses outcomes from modeling analyses to discuss weaknesses of the substitutive Forest Act and to suggest possible improvements. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consensus hologram QSAR modeling for the prediction of human intestinal absorption

Consistent in silico models for ADME properties are useful tools in early drug discovery. Here, we report the hologram QSAR modeling of human intestinal absorption using a dataset of 638 compounds with experimental data associated. The final validated models are consistent and robust for the consensus prediction of this important pharmacokinetic property and are suitable for virtual screening applications. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of continuous thermal processing of a non-Newtonian liquid food under diffusive laminar flow in a tubular system

The classic conservative approach for thermal process design can lead to over-processing, especially for laminar flow, when a significant distribution of temperature and of residence time occurs. In order to optimize quality retention, a more comprehensive model is required. A model comprising differential equations for mass and heat transfer is proposed for the simulation of the continuous thermal processing of a non-Newtonian food in a tubular system. The model takes into account the contribution from heating and cooling sections, the heat exchange with the ambient air and effective diffusion associated with non-ideal laminar flow. The study case of soursop juice processing was used to test the model. Various simulations were performed to evaluate the effect of the model assumptions. An expressive difference in the predicted lethality was observed between the classic approach and the proposed model. The main advantage of the model is its flexibility to represent different aspects with a small computational time, making it suitable for process evaluation and design. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Fatigue crack growth assessments in welded components including crack closure effects: Experiments and 3-D numerical modeling

This work provides a numerical and experimental investigation of fatigue crack growth behavior in steel weldments including crack closure effects and their coupled interaction with weld strength mismatch. A central objective of this study is to extend previously developed frameworks for evaluation of crack clo- sure effects on FCGR to steel weldments while, at the same time, gaining additional understanding of commonly adopted criteria for crack closure loads and their influence on fatigue life of structural welds. Very detailed non-linear finite element analyses using 3-D models of compact tension C ( T ) fracture spec- imens with center cracked, square groove welds provide the evolution of crack growth with cyclic stress intensity factor which is required for the estimation of the closure loads. Fatigue crack growth tests con- ducted on plane-sided, shallow-cracked C ( T ) specimens provide the necessary data against which crack closure effects on fatigue crack growth behavior can be assessed. Overall, the present investigation pro- vides additional support for estimation procedures of plasticity-induced crack closure loads in fatigue analyses of structural steels and their weldments

Inhibitors of Trypanosoma brucei trypanothione reductase: comparative molecular field analysis modeling and structural basis for selective inhibition

Background: Sleeping sickness is a major cause of death in Africa. Since no secure treatment is available, the development of novel therapeutic agents is urgent. In this context, the enzyme trypanothione reductase (TR) is a prominent molecular target that has been investigated in drug design for sleeping sickness. Results: In this study, comparative molecular field analysis models were generated for a series of Trypanosoma brucei TR inhibitors. Statistically significant results were obtained and the models were applied to predict the activity of external test sets, with good correlation between predicted and experimental results. We have also investigated the structural requirements for the selective inhibition of the parasite's enzyme over the human glutathione reductase. Conclusion: The quantitative structure-activity relationship models provided valuable information regarding the essential molecular requirements for the inhibitory activity upon the target protein, providing important insights into the design of more potent and selective TR inhibitors.

Pharmacokinetic properties and in silico ADME modeling in drug discovery

The discovery and development of a new drug are time-consuming, difficult and expensive. This complex process has evolved from classical methods into an integration of modern technologies and innovative strategies addressed to the design of new chemical entities to treat a variety of diseases. The development of new drug candidates is often limited by initial compounds lacking reasonable chemical and biological properties for further lead optimization. Huge libraries of compounds are frequently selected for biological screening using a variety of techniques and standard models to assess potency, affinity and selectivity. In this context, it is very important to study the pharmacokinetic profile of the compounds under investigation. Recent advances have been made in the collection of data and the development of models to assess and predict pharmacokinetic properties (ADME - absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion) of bioactive compounds in the early stages of drug discovery projects. This paper provides a brief perspective on the evolution of in silico ADME tools, addressing challenges, limitations, and opportunities in medicinal chemistry.

A Unified Framework for e-Commerce Systems Development : Business Process Pattern Perspective

In electronic commerce, systems development is based on two fundamental types of models, business models and process models. A business model is concerned with value exchanges among business partners, while a process model focuses on operational and procedural aspects of business communication. Thus, a business model defines the what in an e-commerce system, while a process model defines the how. Business process design can be facilitated and improved by a method for systematically moving from a business model to a process model. Such a method would provide support for traceability, evaluation of design alternatives, and seamless transition from analysis to realization. This work proposes a unified framework that can be used as a basis to analyze, to interpret and to understand different concepts associated at different stages in e-Commerce system development. In this thesis, we illustrate how UN/CEFACT’s recommended metamodels for business and process design can be analyzed, extended and then integrated for the final solutions based on the proposed unified framework. Also, as an application of the framework, we demonstrate how process-modeling tasks can be facilitated in e-Commerce system design. The proposed methodology, called BP3 stands for Business Process Patterns Perspective. The BP3 methodology uses a question-answer interface to capture different business requirements from the designers. It is based on pre-defined process patterns, and the final solution is generated by applying the captured business requirements by means of a set of production rules to complete the inter-process communication among these patterns.

Characterization and modeling of the barrier properties in nanostructured systems

The object of the present study is the process of gas transport in nano-sized materials, i.e. systems having structural elements of the order of nanometers. The aim of this work is to advance the understanding of the gas transport mechanism in such materials, for which traditional models are not often suitable, by providing a correct interpretation of the relationship between diffusive phenomena and structural features. This result would allow the development new materials with permeation properties tailored on the specific application, especially in packaging systems. The methods used to achieve this goal were a detailed experimental characterization and different simulation methods. The experimental campaign regarded the determination of oxygen permeability and diffusivity in different sets of organic-inorganic hybrid coatings prepared via sol-gel technique. The polymeric samples coated with these hybrid layers experienced a remarkable enhancement of the barrier properties, which was explained by the strong interconnection at the nano-scale between the organic moiety and silica domains. An analogous characterization was performed on microfibrillated cellulose films, which presented remarkable barrier effect toward oxygen when it is dry, while in the presence of water the performance significantly drops. The very low value of water diffusivity at low activities is also an interesting characteristic which deals with its structural properties. Two different approaches of simulation were then considered: the diffusion of oxygen through polymer-layered silicates was modeled on a continuum scale with a CFD software, while the properties of n-alkanthiolate self assembled monolayers on gold were analyzed from a molecular point of view by means of a molecular dynamics algorithm. Modeling transport properties in layered nanocomposites, resulting from the ordered dispersion of impermeable flakes in a 2-D matrix, allowed the calculation of the enhancement of barrier effect in relation with platelets structural parameters leading to derive a new expression. On this basis, randomly distributed systems were simulated and the results were analyzed to evaluate the different contributions to the overall effect. The study of more realistic three-dimensional geometries revealed a prefect correspondence with the 2-D approximation. A completely different approach was applied to simulate the effect of temperature on the oxygen transport through self assembled monolayers; the structural information obtained from equilibrium MD simulations showed that raising the temperature, makes the monolayer less ordered and consequently less crystalline. This disorder produces a decrease in the barrier free energy and it lowers the overall resistance to oxygen diffusion, making the monolayer more permeable to small molecules.

Development of synthetic molecular circuits for the control of cell systems

Synthetic biology is a young field of applicative research aiming to design and build up artificial biological devices, useful for human applications. How synthetic biology emerged in past years and how the development of the Registry of Standard Biological Parts aimed to introduce one practical starting solution to apply the basics of engineering to molecular biology is presented in chapter 1 in the thesis The same chapter recalls how biological parts can make up a genetic program, the molecular cloning tecnique useful for this purpose, and an overview of the mathematical modeling adopted to describe gene circuit behavior. Although the design of gene circuits has become feasible the increasing complexity of gene networks asks for a rational approach to design gene circuits. A bottom-up approach was proposed, suggesting that the behavior of a complicated system can be predicted from the features of its parts. The option to use modular parts in large-scale networks will be facilitated by a detailed and shared characterization of their functional properties. Such a prediction, requires well-characterized mathematical models of the parts and of how they behave when assembled together. In chapter 2, the feasibility of the bottom-up approach in the design of a synthetic program in Escherichia coli bacterial cells is described. The rational design of gene networks is however far from being established. The synthetic biology approach can used the mathematical formalism to identify biological information not assessable with experimental measurements. In this context, chapter 3 describes the design of a synthetic sensor for identifying molecules of interest inside eukaryotic cells. The Registry of Standard parts collects standard and modular biological parts. To spread the use of BioBricks the iGEM competition was started. The ICM Laboratory, where Francesca Ceroni completed her Ph.D, partecipated with teams of students and Chapter 4 summarizes the projects developed.

Modeling, design and experimental characterization of Micro-Electro-Mechanical-Systems for gas chromatographic applications

Design parameters, process flows, electro-thermal-fluidic simulations and experimental characterizations of Micro-Electro-Mechanical-Systems (MEMS) suited for gas-chromatographic (GC) applications are presented and thoroughly described in this thesis, whose topic belongs to the research activities the Institute for Microelectronics and Microsystems (IMM)-Bologna is involved since several years, i.e. the development of micro-systems for chemical analysis, based on silicon micro-machining techniques and able to perform analysis of complex gaseous mixtures, especially in the field of environmental monitoring. In this regard, attention has been focused on the development of micro-fabricated devices to be employed in a portable mini-GC system for the analysis of aromatic Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) like Benzene, Toluene, Ethyl-benzene and Xylene (BTEX), i.e. chemical compounds which can significantly affect environment and human health because of their demonstrated carcinogenicity (benzene) or toxicity (toluene, xylene) even at parts per billion (ppb) concentrations. The most significant results achieved through the laboratory functional characterization of the mini-GC system have been reported, together with in-field analysis results carried out in a station of the Bologna air monitoring network and compared with those provided by a commercial GC system. The development of more advanced prototypes of micro-fabricated devices specifically suited for FAST-GC have been also presented (silicon capillary columns, Ultra-Low-Power (ULP) Metal OXide (MOX) sensor, Thermal Conductivity Detector (TCD)), together with the technological processes for their fabrication. The experimentally demonstrated very high sensitivity of ULP-MOX sensors to VOCs, coupled with the extremely low power consumption, makes the developed ULP-MOX sensor the most performing metal oxide sensor reported up to now in literature, while preliminary test results proved that the developed silicon capillary columns are capable of performances comparable to those of the best fused silica capillary columns. Finally, the development and the validation of a coupled electro-thermal Finite Element Model suited for both steady-state and transient analysis of the micro-devices has been described, and subsequently implemented with a fluidic part to investigate devices behaviour in presence of a gas flowing with certain volumetric flow rates.

Towards model driven software development for Arduino platforms: a DSL and automatic code generation

La tesi ha lo scopo di esplorare la produzione di sistemi software per Embedded Systems mediante l'utilizzo di tecniche relative al mondo del Model Driven Software Development. La fase più importante dello sviluppo sarà la definizione di un Meta-Modello che caratterizza i concetti fondamentali relativi agli embedded systems. Tale modello cercherà di astrarre dalla particolare piattaforma utilizzata ed individuare quali astrazioni caratterizzano il mondo degli embedded systems in generale. Tale meta-modello sarà quindi di tipo platform-independent. Per la generazione automatica di codice è stata adottata una piattaforma di riferimento, cioè Arduino. Arduino è un sistema embedded che si sta sempre più affermando perché coniuga un buon livello di performance ed un prezzo relativamente basso. Tale piattaforma permette lo sviluppo di sistemi special purpose che utilizzano sensori ed attuatori di vario genere, facilmente connessi ai pin messi a disposizione. Il meta-modello definito è un'istanza del meta-metamodello MOF, definito formalmente dall'organizzazione OMG. Questo permette allo sviluppatore di pensare ad un sistema sotto forma di modello, istanza del meta-modello definito. Un meta-modello può essere considerato anche come la sintassi astratta di un linguaggio, quindi può essere definito da un insieme di regole EBNF. La tecnologia utilizzata per la definizione del meta-modello è stata Xtext: un framework che permette la scrittura di regole EBNF e che genera automaticamente il modello Ecore associato al meta-modello definito. Ecore è l'implementazione di EMOF in ambiente Eclipse. Xtext genera inoltre dei plugin che permettono di avere un editor guidato dalla sintassi, definita nel meta-modello. La generazione automatica di codice è stata realizzata usando il linguaggio Xtend2. Tale linguaggio permette di esplorare l'Abstract Syntax Tree generato dalla traduzione del modello in Ecore e di generare tutti i file di codice necessari. Il codice generato fornisce praticamente tutta la schematic part dell'applicazione, mentre lascia all'application designer lo sviluppo della business logic. Dopo la definizione del meta-modello di un sistema embedded, il livello di astrazione è stato spostato più in alto, andando verso la definizione della parte di meta-modello relativa all'interazione di un sistema embedded con altri sistemi. Ci si è quindi spostati verso un ottica di Sistema, inteso come insieme di sistemi concentrati che interagiscono. Tale difinizione viene fatta dal punto di vista del sistema concentrato di cui si sta definendo il modello. Nella tesi viene inoltre introdotto un caso di studio che, anche se abbastanza semplice, fornisce un esempio ed un tutorial allo sviluppo di applicazioni mediante l'uso del meta-modello. Ci permette inoltre di notare come il compito dell'application designer diventi piuttosto semplice ed immediato, sempre se basato su una buona analisi del problema. I risultati ottenuti sono stati di buona qualità ed il meta-modello viene tradotto in codice che funziona correttamente.

Structure-Property Relationships and Charge Transport Modeling of Organic Molecular Materials

From the perspective of a new-generation opto-electronic technology based on organic semiconductors, a major objective is to achieve a deep and detailed knowledge of the structure-property relationships, in order to optimize the electronic, optical, and charge transport properties by tuning the chemical-physical characteristics of the compounds. The purpose of this dissertation is to contribute to such understanding, through suitable theoretical and computational studies. Precisely, the structural, electronic, optical, and charge transport characteristics of several promising organic materials recently synthesized are investigated by means of an integrated approach encompassing quantum-chemical calculations, molecular dynamics and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. Particular care is addressed to the rationalization of optical and charge transport properties in terms of both intra- and intermolecular features. Moreover, a considerable part of this project involves the development of a home-made set of procedures and parts of software code required to assist the modeling of charge transport properties in the framework of the non-adiabatic hopping mechanism applied to organic crystalline materials. As a first part of my investigations, I mainly discuss the optical, electronic, and structural properties of several core-extended rylene derivatives, which can be regarded to as model compounds for graphene nanoribbons. Two families have been studied, consisting in bay-linked perylene bisimide oligomers and N-annulated rylenes. Beside rylene derivatives, my studies also concerned electronic and spectroscopic properties of tetracene diimides, quinoidal oligothiophenes, and oxygen doped picene. As an example of device application, I studied the structural characteristics governing the efficiency of resistive molecular memories based on a derivative of benzoquinone. Finally, as a second part of my investigations, I concentrate on the charge transport properties of perylene bisimides derivatives. Precisely, a comprehensive study of the structural and thermal effects on the charge transport of several core-twisted chlorinated and fluoro-alkylated perylene bisimide n-type semiconductors is presented.