Meta-analysis and cross-validation of a hyperglycemic status predictor model based on salivary glucose

Poster presented at the First International Congress of CiiEM - From Basic Sciences To Clinical Research. Egas Moniz, Caparica, Portugal, 27-28 November 2015.

Collaborative Networked Organizations as System of Systems: A Model-Based Engineering Approach

Part 6: Engineering and Implementation of Collaborative Networks

A SCR Model based on Reactor and Engine Experimental Studies for a Cu-zeolite Catalyst

A NOx reduction efficiency higher than 95% with NH3 slip less than 30 ppm is desirable for heavy-duty diesel (HDD) engines using selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems to meet the US EPA 2010 NOx standard and the 2014-2018 fuel consumption regulation. The SCR performance needs to be improved through experimental and modeling studies. In this research, a high fidelity global kinetic 1-dimensional 2-site SCR model with mass transfer, heat transfer and global reaction mechanisms was developed for a Cu-zeolite catalyst. The model simulates the SCR performance for the engine exhaust conditions with NH3 maldistribution and aging effects, and the details are presented. SCR experimental data were collected for the model development, calibration and validation from a reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and an engine experimental setup at Michigan Technological University (MTU) with a Cummins 2010 ISB engine. The model was calibrated separately to the reactor and engine data. The experimental setup, test procedures including a surrogate HD-FTP cycle developed for transient studies and the model calibration process are described. Differences in the model parameters were determined between the calibrations developed from the reactor and the engine data. It was determined that the SCR inlet NH3 maldistribution is one of the reasons causing the differences. The model calibrated to the engine data served as a basis for developing a reduced order SCR estimator model. The effect of the SCR inlet NO2/NOx ratio on the SCR performance was studied through simulations using the surrogate HD-FTP cycle. The cumulative outlet NOx and the overall NOx conversion efficiency of the cycle are highest with a NO2/NOx ratio of 0.5. The outlet NH3 is lowest for the NO2/NOx ratio greater than 0.6. A combined engine experimental and simulation study was performed to quantify the NH3 maldistribution at the SCR inlet and its effects on the SCR performance and kinetics. The uniformity index (UI) of the SCR inlet NH3 and NH3/NOx ratio (ANR) was determined to be below 0.8 for the production system. The UI was improved to 0.9 after installation of a swirl mixer into the SCR inlet cone. A multi-channel model was developed to simulate the maldistribution effects. The results showed that reducing the UI of the inlet ANR from 1.0 to 0.7 caused a 5-10% decrease in NOx reduction efficiency and 10-20 ppm increase in the NH3 slip. The simulations of the steady-state engine data with the multi-channel model showed that the NH3 maldistribution is a factor causing the differences in the calibrations developed from the engine and the reactor data. The Reactor experiments were performed at ORNL using a Spaci-IR technique to study the thermal aging effects. The test results showed that the thermal aging (at 800°C for 16 hours) caused a 30% reduction in the NH3 stored on the catalyst under NH3 saturation conditions and different axial concentration profiles under SCR reaction conditions. The kinetics analysis showed that the thermal aging caused a reduction in total NH3 storage capacity (94.6 compared to 138 gmol/m3), different NH3 adsorption/desorption properties and a decrease in activation energy and the pre-exponential factor for NH3 oxidation, standard and fast SCR reactions. Both reduction in the storage capability and the change in kinetics of the major reactions contributed to the change in the axial storage and concentration profiles observed from the experiments.

DYNAMIC MODEL BASED STATE ESTIMATION IN A HEAVY DUTY DIESEL AFTERTREATMENT SYSTEM FOR ONBOARD DIAGNOSTICS AND CONTROLS

Estimating un-measurable states is an important component for onboard diagnostics (OBD) and control strategy development in diesel exhaust aftertreatment systems. This research focuses on the development of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) based state estimator for two of the main components in a diesel engine aftertreatment system: the Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) and the Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) catalyst. One of the key areas of interest is the performance of these estimators when the catalyzed particulate filter (CPF) is being actively regenerated. In this study, model reduction techniques were developed and used to develop reduced order models from the 1D models used to simulate the DOC and SCR. As a result of order reduction, the number of states in the estimator is reduced from 12 to 1 per element for the DOC and 12 to 2 per element for the SCR. The reduced order models were simulated on the experimental data and compared to the high fidelity model and the experimental data. The results show that the effect of eliminating the heat transfer and mass transfer coefficients are not significant on the performance of the reduced order models. This is shown by an insignificant change in the kinetic parameters between the reduced order and 1D model for simulating the experimental data. An EKF based estimator to estimate the internal states of the DOC and SCR was developed. The DOC and SCR estimators were simulated on the experimental data to show that the estimator provides improved estimation of states compared to a reduced order model. The results showed that using the temperature measurement at the DOC outlet improved the estimates of the CO , NO , NO2 and HC concentrations from the DOC. The SCR estimator was used to evaluate the effect of NH3 and NOX sensors on state estimation quality. Three sensor combinations of NOX sensor only, NH3 sensor only and both NOX and NH3 sensors were evaluated. The NOX only configuration had the worst performance, the NH3 sensor only configuration was in the middle and both the NOX and NH3 sensor combination provided the best performance.

Development and experimental validation of a knock induced damage model and real-time implementation of model-based strategies to control knock intensity in boosted gasoline engines

This PhD thesis reports the main activities carried out during the 3 years long “Mechanics and advanced engineering sciences” course, at the Department of Industrial Engineering of the University of Bologna. The research project title is “Development and analysis of high efficiency combustion systems for internal combustion engines” and the main topic is knock, one of the main challenges for boosted gasoline engines. Through experimental campaigns, modelling activity and test bench validation, 4 different aspects have been addressed to tackle the issue. The main path goes towards the definition and calibration of a knock-induced damage model, to be implemented in the on-board control strategy, but also usable for the engine calibration and potentially during the engine design. Ionization current signal capabilities have been investigated to fully replace the pressure sensor, to develop a robust on-board close-loop combustion control strategy, both in knock-free and knock-limited conditions. Water injection is a powerful solution to mitigate knock intensity and exhaust temperature, improving fuel consumption; its capabilities have been modelled and validated at the test bench. Finally, an empiric model is proposed to predict the engine knock response, depending on several operating condition and control parameters, including injected water quantity.

Development and Validation of a Model-Based Combustion Controller for Water Injection Management

This manuscript reports the overall development of a Ph.D. research project during the “Mechanics and advanced engineering sciences” course at the Department of Industrial Engineering of the University of Bologna. The project is focused on the development of a combustion control system for an innovative Spark Ignited engine layout. In details, the controller is oriented to manage a prototypal engine equipped with a Port Water Injection system. The water injection technology allows an increment of combustion efficiency due to the knock mitigation effect that permits to keep the combustion phasing closer to the optimal position with respect to the traditional layout. At the beginning of the project, the effects and the possible benefits achievable by water injection have been investigated by a focused experimental campaign. Then the data obtained by combustion analysis have been processed to design a control-oriented combustion model. The model identifies the correlation between Spark Advance, combustion phasing and injected water mass, and two different strategies are presented, both based on an analytic and semi-empirical approach and therefore compatible with a real-time application. The model has been implemented in a combustion controller that manages water injection to reach the best achievable combustion efficiency while keeping knock levels under a pre-established threshold. Three different versions of the algorithm are described in detail. This controller has been designed and pre-calibrated in a software-in-the-loop environment and later an experimental validation has been performed with a rapid control prototyping approach to highlight the performance of the system on real set-up. To further make the strategy implementable on an onboard application, an estimation algorithm of combustion phasing, necessary for the controller, has been developed during the last phase of the PhD Course, based on accelerometric signals.

Model-Based validation of Driver Drowsiness Detection System for ADAS

The work described in this Master’s Degree thesis was born after the collaboration with the company Maserati S.p.a, an Italian luxury car maker with its headquarters located in Modena, in the heart of the Italian Motor Valley, where I worked as a stagiaire in the Virtual Engineering team between September 2021 and February 2022. This work proposes the validation using real-world ECUs of a Driver Drowsiness Detection (DDD) system prototype based on different detection methods with the goal to overcome input signal losses and system failures. Detection methods of different categories have been chosen from literature and merged with the goal of utilizing the benefits of each of them, overcoming their limitations and limiting as much as possible their degree of intrusiveness to prevent any kind of driving distraction: an image processing-based technique for human physical signals detection as well as methods based on driver-vehicle interaction are used. A Driver-In-the-Loop simulator is used to gather real data on which a Machine Learning-based algorithm will be trained and validated. These data come from the tests that the company conducts in its daily activities so confidential information about the simulator and the drivers will be omitted. Although the impact of the proposed system is not remarkable and there is still work to do in all its elements, the results indicate the main advantages of the system in terms of robustness against subsystem failures and signal losses.

Model-Based Contrastive Explanations for XAIP: Towards a General Model and Prototype

Planning is an important sub-field of artificial intelligence (AI) focusing on letting intelligent agents deliberate on the most adequate course of action to attain their goals. Thanks to the recent boost in the number of critical domains and systems which exploit planning for their internal procedures, there is an increasing need for planning systems to become more transparent and trustworthy. Along this line, planning systems are now required to produce not only plans but also explanations about those plans, or the way they were attained. To address this issue, a new research area is emerging in the AI panorama: eXplainable AI (XAI), within which explainable planning (XAIP) is a pivotal sub-field. As a recent domain, XAIP is far from mature. No consensus has been reached in the literature about what explanations are, how they should be computed, and what they should explain in the first place. Furthermore, existing contributions are mostly theoretical, and software implementations are rarely more than preliminary. To overcome such issues, in this thesis we design an explainable planning framework bridging the gap between theoretical contributions from literature and software implementations. More precisely, taking inspiration from the state of the art, we develop a formal model for XAIP, and the software tool enabling its practical exploitation. Accordingly, the contribution of this thesis is four-folded. First, we review the state of the art of XAIP, supplying an outline of its most significant contributions from the literature. We then generalise the aforementioned contributions into a unified model for XAIP, aimed at supporting model-based contrastive explanations. Next, we design and implement an algorithm-agnostic library for XAIP based on our model. Finally, we validate our library from a technological perspective, via an extensive testing suite. Furthermore, we assess its performance and usability through a set of benchmarks and end-to-end examples.

The Possibilities and Dosimetric Limitations of MLC-Based Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Delivery and Optimization Techniques

The use of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has increased extensively in the modern radiotherapy (RT) treatments over the past two decades. Radiation dose distributions can be delivered with higher conformality with IMRT when compared to the conventional 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Higher conformality and target coverage increases the probability of tumour control and decreases the normal tissue complications. The primary goal of this work is to improve and evaluate the accuracy, efficiency and delivery techniques of RT treatments by using IMRT. This study evaluated the dosimetric limitations and possibilities of IMRT in small (treatments of head-and-neck, prostate and lung cancer) and large volumes (primitive neuroectodermal tumours). The dose coverage of target volumes and the sparing of critical organs were increased with IMRT when compared to 3D-CRT. The developed split field IMRT technique was found to be safe and accurate method in craniospinal irradiations. By using IMRT in simultaneous integrated boosting of biologically defined target volumes of localized prostate cancer high doses were achievable with only small increase in the treatment complexity. Biological plan optimization increased the probability of uncomplicated control on average by 28% when compared to standard IMRT delivery. Unfortunately IMRT carries also some drawbacks. In IMRT the beam modulation is realized by splitting a large radiation field to small apertures. The smaller the beam apertures are the larger the rebuild-up and rebuild-down effects are at the tissue interfaces. The limitations to use IMRT with small apertures in the treatments of small lung tumours were investigated with dosimetric film measurements. The results confirmed that the peripheral doses of the small lung tumours were decreased as the effective field size was decreased. The studied calculation algorithms were not able to model the dose deficiency of the tumours accurately. The use of small sliding window apertures of 2 mm and 4 mm decreased the tumour peripheral dose by 6% when compared to 3D-CRT treatment plan. A direct aperture based optimization (DABO) technique was examined as a solution to decrease the treatment complexity. The DABO IMRT technique was able to achieve treatment plans equivalent with the conventional IMRT fluence based optimization techniques in the concave head-and-neck target volumes. With DABO the effective field sizes were increased and the number of MUs was reduced with a factor of two. The optimality of a treatment plan and the therapeutic ratio can be further enhanced by using dose painting based on regional radiosensitivities imaged with functional imaging methods.

Improving web learning through model optimization using bootstrap for a tour-guide robot

We perform a review of Web Mining techniques and we describe a Bootstrap Statistics methodology applied to pattern model classifier optimization and verification for Supervised Learning for Tour-Guide Robot knowledge repository management. It is virtually impossible to test thoroughly Web Page Classifiers and many other Internet Applications with pure empirical data, due to the need for human intervention to generate training sets and test sets. We propose using the computer-based Bootstrap paradigm to design a test environment where they are checked with better reliability.

Population-based continuous optimization, probabilistic modelling and mean shift

Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.

A fuzzy AHP based integer linear programming model for the multi-criteria transshipment problem

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to develop a holistic approach to maximize the customer service level while minimizing the logistics cost by using an integrated multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) method for the contemporary transshipment problem. Unlike the prevalent optimization techniques, this paper proposes an integrated approach which considers both quantitative and qualitative factors in order to maximize the benefits of service deliverers and customers under uncertain environments. Design/methodology/approach – This paper proposes a fuzzy-based integer linear programming model, based on the existing literature and validated with an example case. The model integrates the developed fuzzy modification of the analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), and solves the multi-criteria transshipment problem. Findings – This paper provides several novel insights about how to transform a company from a cost-based model to a service-dominated model by using an integrated MCDM method. It suggests that the contemporary customer-driven supply chain remains and increases its competitiveness from two aspects: optimizing the cost and providing the best service simultaneously. Research limitations/implications – This research used one illustrative industry case to exemplify the developed method. Considering the generalization of the research findings and the complexity of the transshipment service network, more cases across multiple industries are necessary to further enhance the validity of the research output. Practical implications – The paper includes implications for the evaluation and selection of transshipment service suppliers, the construction of optimal transshipment network as well as managing the network. Originality/value – The major advantages of this generic approach are that both quantitative and qualitative factors under fuzzy environment are considered simultaneously and also the viewpoints of service deliverers and customers are focused. Therefore, it is believed that it is useful and applicable for the transshipment service network design.

Surrogate-based analysis and optimization for the design of heat sinks with jet impingement

Heat sinks are widely used for cooling electronic devices and systems. Their thermal performance is usually determined by the material, shape, and size of the heat sink. With the assistance of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and surrogate-based optimization, heat sinks can be designed and optimized to achieve a high level of performance. In this paper, the design and optimization of a plate-fin-type heat sink cooled by impingement jet is presented. The flow and thermal fields are simulated using the CFD simulation; the thermal resistance of the heat sink is then estimated. A Kriging surrogate model is developed to approximate the objective function (thermal resistance) as a function of design variables. Surrogate-based optimization is implemented by adaptively adding infill points based on an integrated strategy of the minimum value, the maximum mean square error approach, and the expected improvement approaches. The results show the influence of design variables on the thermal resistance and give the optimal heat sink with lowest thermal resistance for given jet impingement conditions.

Search for Higgs Boson Production Beyond the Standard Model Using the Razor Kinematic Variables in pp Collisions at √s=8 TeV and Optimization of Higgs Boson Identification Using a Quantum Annealer

In the first part of this thesis we search for beyond the Standard Model physics through the search for anomalous production of the Higgs boson using the razor kinematic variables. We search for anomalous Higgs boson production using proton-proton collisions at center of mass energy √s=8 TeV collected by the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at the Large Hadron Collider corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.8 fb^-1.

In the second part we present a novel method for using a quantum annealer to train a classifier to recognize events containing a Higgs boson decaying to two photons. We train that classifier using simulated proton-proton collisions at √s=8 TeV producing either a Standard Model Higgs boson decaying to two photons or a non-resonant Standard Model process that produces a two photon final state.

The production mechanisms of the Higgs boson are precisely predicted by the Standard Model based on its association with the mechanism of electroweak symmetry breaking. We measure the yield of Higgs bosons decaying to two photons in kinematic regions predicted to have very little contribution from a Standard Model Higgs boson and search for an excess of events, which would be evidence of either non-standard production or non-standard properties of the Higgs boson. We divide the events into disjoint categories based on kinematic properties and the presence of additional b-quarks produced in the collisions. In each of these disjoint categories, we use the razor kinematic variables to characterize events with topological configurations incompatible with typical configurations found from standard model production of the Higgs boson.

We observe an excess of events with di-photon invariant mass compatible with the Higgs boson mass and localized in a small region of the razor plane. We observe 5 events with a predicted background of 0.54 ± 0.28, which observation has a p-value of 10^-3 and a local significance of 3.35σ. This background prediction comes from 0.48 predicted non-resonant background events and 0.07 predicted SM higgs boson events. We proceed to investigate the properties of this excess, finding that it provides a very compelling peak in the di-photon invariant mass distribution and is physically separated in the razor plane from predicted background. Using another method of measuring the background and significance of the excess, we find a 2.5σ deviation from the Standard Model hypothesis over a broader range of the razor plane.

In the second part of the thesis we transform the problem of training a classifier to distinguish events with a Higgs boson decaying to two photons from events with other sources of photon pairs into the Hamiltonian of a spin system, the ground state of which is the best classifier. We then use a quantum annealer to find the ground state of this Hamiltonian and train the classifier. We find that we are able to do this successfully in less than 400 annealing runs for a problem of median difficulty at the largest problem size considered. The networks trained in this manner exhibit good classification performance, competitive with the more complicated machine learning techniques, and are highly resistant to overtraining. We also find that the nature of the training gives access to additional solutions that can be used to improve the classification performance by up to 1.2% in some regions.

Development of a Computer-Based methodology for tolerance selection and optimization applied to the automotive sector

The design optimization of industrial products has always been an essential activity to improve product quality while reducing time-to-market and production costs. Although cost management is very complex and comprises all phases of the product life cycle, the control of geometrical and dimensional variations, known as Dimensional Management (DM), allows compliance with product and process requirements. Hence, the tolerance-cost optimization becomes the main practice to provide an effective application of Design for Tolerancing (DfT) and Design to Cost (DtC) approaches by enabling a connection between product tolerances and associated manufacturing costs. However, despite the growing interest in this topic, a profitable application in the industry of these techniques is hampered by their complexity: the definition of a systematic framework is the key element to improving design optimization, enhancing the concurrent use of Computer-Aided tools and Model-Based Definition (MBD) practices. The present doctorate research aims to define and develop an integrated methodology for product/process design optimization, to better exploit the new capabilities of advanced simulations and tools. By implementing predictive models and multi-disciplinary optimization, a Computer-Aided Integrated framework for tolerance-cost optimization has been proposed to allow the integration of DfT and DtC approaches and their direct application for the design of automotive components. Several case studies have been considered, with the final application of the integrated framework on a high-performance V12 engine assembly, to achieve both functional targets and cost reduction. From a scientific point of view, the proposed methodology provides an improvement for the tolerance-cost optimization of industrial components. The integration of theoretical approaches and Computer-Aided tools allows to analyse the influence of tolerances on both product performance and manufacturing costs. The case studies proved the suitability of the methodology for its application in the industrial field, providing the identification of further areas for improvement and refinement.