Risk-based model aids selection of pipeline inspection, maintenance strategies

The existing method of pipeline monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, wastes time and is expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been developed. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction method and logical insurance plans.The risk-based model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to identify factors that influence failure on specific segments and analyze their effects by determining the probabilities of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis, which establishes the effect of a failure in terms of cost caused by each risk factor and determines the cumulative effect of failure through probability analysis.

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy quantitative analysis method via adaptive analytical line selection and relevance vector machine regression model

Abstract A new LIBS quantitative analysis method based on analytical line adaptive selection and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) regression model is proposed. First, a scheme of adaptively selecting analytical line is put forward in order to overcome the drawback of high dependency on a priori knowledge. The candidate analytical lines are automatically selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines, such as spectral intensity, wavelength and width at half height. The analytical lines which will be used as input variables of regression model are determined adaptively according to the samples for both training and testing. Second, an LIBS quantitative analysis method based on RVM is presented. The intensities of analytical lines and the elemental concentrations of certified standard samples are used to train the RVM regression model. The predicted elemental concentration analysis results will be given with a form of confidence interval of probabilistic distribution, which is helpful for evaluating the uncertainness contained in the measured spectra. Chromium concentration analysis experiments of 23 certified standard high-alloy steel samples have been carried out. The multiple correlation coefficient of the prediction was up to 98.85%, and the average relative error of the prediction was 4.01%. The experiment results showed that the proposed LIBS quantitative analysis method achieved better prediction accuracy and better modeling robustness compared with the methods based on partial least squares regression, artificial neural network and standard support vector machine.

Parametric pattern selection in a reaction-diffusion model

We compare spot patterns generated by Turing mechanisms with those generated by replication cascades, in a model one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. We determine the stability region of spot solutions in parameter space as a function of a natural control parameter (feed-rate) where degenerate patterns with different numbers of spots coexist for a fixed feed-rate. While it is possible to generate identical patterns via both mechanisms, we show that replication cascades lead to a wider choice of pattern profiles that can be selected through a tuning of the feed-rate, exploiting hysteresis and directionality effects of the different pattern pathways.

Optimal selection of autoregressive model coefficients for early damage detectability with an application to wind turbine blades

Piotr Omenzetter and Simon Hoell's work within the Lloyd's Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research.

Optimal selection of autoregressive model coefficients for early damage detectability with an application to wind turbine blades

Piotr Omenzetter and Simon Hoell's work within the Lloyd's Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research.

Large volume metrology process model:measurability analysis with integration of metrology classification model and feature-based selection model

Aircraft manufacturing industries are looking for solutions in order to increase their productivity. One of the solutions is to apply the metrology systems during the production and assembly processes. Metrology Process Model (MPM) (Maropoulos et al, 2007) has been introduced which emphasises metrology applications with assembly planning, manufacturing processes and product designing. Measurability analysis is part of the MPM and the aim of this analysis is to check the feasibility for measuring the designed large scale components. Measurability Analysis has been integrated in order to provide an efficient matching system. Metrology database is structured by developing the Metrology Classification Model. Furthermore, the feature-based selection model is also explained. By combining two classification models, a novel approach and selection processes for integrated measurability analysis system (MAS) are introduced and such integrated MAS could provide much more meaningful matching results for the operators. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

Scaling limits of a model for selection at two scales

The dynamics of a population undergoing selection is a central topic in evolutionary biology. This question is particularly intriguing in the case where selective forces act in opposing directions at two population scales. For example, a fast-replicating virus strain outcompetes slower-replicating strains at the within-host scale. However, if the fast-replicating strain causes host morbidity and is less frequently transmitted, it can be outcompeted by slower-replicating strains at the between-host scale. Here we consider a stochastic ball-and-urn process which models this type of phenomenon. We prove the weak convergence of this process under two natural scalings. The first scaling leads to a deterministic nonlinear integro-partial differential equation on the interval $[0,1]$ with dependence on a single parameter, $\lambda$. We show that the fixed points of this differential equation are Beta distributions and that their stability depends on $\lambda$ and the behavior of the initial data around $1$. The second scaling leads to a measure-valued Fleming-Viot process, an infinite dimensional stochastic process that is frequently associated with a population genetics.

PROPOSAL OF AN EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR SUPPLIERS SELECTION

The problem of selecting suppliers/partners is a crucial and important part in the process of decision making for companies that intend to perform competitively in their area of activity. The selection of supplier/partner is a time and resource-consuming task that involves data collection and a careful analysis of the factors that can positively or negatively influence the choice. Nevertheless it is a critical process that affects significantly the operational performance of each company. In this work, trough the literature review, there were identified five broad suppliers selection criteria: Quality, Financial, Synergies, Cost, and Production System. Within these criteria, it was also included five sub-criteria. Thereafter, a survey was elaborated and companies were contacted in order to answer which factors have more relevance in their decisions to choose the suppliers. Interpreted the results and processed the data, it was adopted a model of linear weighting to reflect the importance of each factor. The model has a hierarchical structure and can be applied with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method or Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). The result of the research undertaken by the authors is a reference model that represents a decision making support for the suppliers/partners selection process.

Evaluation, Selection and Planning the Implementation of a Pavement Management Optimization Model: Optimization Recommendations, 1994

This document briefly summarizes the pavement management activities under the existing Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Pavement Management System. The second part of the document provides projected increase in use due to the implementation of the Iowa DOT Pavement Management Optimization System. All estimates of existing time devoted to the Pavement Management System and project increases in time requirements are estimates made by the appropriate Iowa DOT office director or function manager. Included is the new Pavement Management Optimization Structure for the three main offices which will work most closely with the Pavement Management Optimization System (Materials, Design, and Program Management).

Evaluation, Selection and Planning the Implementation of a Pavement Management Optimization Model, Phase II Report, 1994

The missions of the research are to assist the Iowa Department of Transortation (Iowa DOT) to: Define pavement management (PM) optimization; Identify the characteristics of PM optimization systems being developed or implemented; Identify specific and achievable objectives for the Iowa DOT pavement management optimization; Evaluate different PM optimization methodologies; Identify a methodology to perform PM optimization that best satisfies the Iowa DOT's objectives; Develop a plan for the implementation of the PM optimization selected. The project is divided into three (3) phases. The first phase has been completed and accomplished the first three missions (identified above). The second phase has been completed and accomplished the next two missions. Phase three will accomplish the last mission.

Contribution margin model applied to the marketing planning of a container liner carrier

The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.

Selection of suitable housekeeping genes for expression analysis in glioblastoma using quantitative RT-PCR

Background: Considering the broad variation in the expression of housekeeping genes among tissues and experimental situations, studies using quantitative RT-PCR require strict definition of adequate endogenous controls. For glioblastoma, the most common type of tumor in the central nervous system, there was no previous report regarding this issue. Results: Here we show that amongst seven frequently used housekeeping genes TBP and HPRT1 are adequate references for glioblastoma gene expression analysis. Evaluation of the expression levels of 12 target genes utilizing different endogenous controls revealed that the normalization method applied might introduce errors in the estimation of relative quantities. Genes presenting expression levels which do not significantly differ between tumor and normal tissues can be considered either increased or decreased if unsuitable reference genes are applied. Most importantly, genes showing significant differences in expression levels between tumor and normal tissues can be missed. We also demonstrated that the Holliday Junction Recognizing Protein, a novel DNA repair protein over expressed in lung cancer, is extremely over-expressed in glioblastoma, with a median change of about 134 fold. Conclusion: Altogether, our data show the relevance of previous validation of candidate control genes for each experimental model and indicate TBP plus HPRT1 as suitable references for studies on glioblastoma gene expression.

Genetic variability and natural selection at the ligand domain of the Duffy binding protein in brazilian Plasmodium vivax populations

Background: Plasmodium vivax malaria is a major public health challenge in Latin America, Asia and Oceania, with 130-435 million clinical cases per year worldwide. Invasion of host blood cells by P. vivax mainly depends on a type I membrane protein called Duffy binding protein (PvDBP). The erythrocyte-binding motif of PvDBP is a 170 amino-acid stretch located in its cysteine-rich region II (PvDBP(II)), which is the most variable segment of the protein. Methods: To test whether diversifying natural selection has shaped the nucleotide diversity of PvDBP(II) in Brazilian populations, this region was sequenced in 122 isolates from six different geographic areas. A Bayesian method was applied to test for the action of natural selection under a population genetic model that incorporates recombination. The analysis was integrated with a structural model of PvDBP(II), and T-and B-cell epitopes were localized on the 3-D structure. Results: The results suggest that: (i) recombination plays an important role in determining the haplotype structure of PvDBP(II), and (ii) PvDBP(II) appears to contain neutrally evolving codons as well as codons evolving under natural selection. Diversifying selection preferentially acts on sites identified as epitopes, particularly on amino acid residues 417, 419, and 424, which show strong linkage disequilibrium. Conclusions: This study shows that some polymorphisms of PvDBP(II) are present near the erythrocyte-binding domain and might serve to elude antibodies that inhibit cell invasion. Therefore, these polymorphisms should be taken into account when designing vaccines aimed at eliciting antibodies to inhibit erythrocyte invasion.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust model predictive control with zone control

Model predictive control (MPC) is usually implemented as a control strategy where the system outputs are controlled within specified zones, instead of fixed set points. One strategy to implement the zone control is by means of the selection of different weights for the output error in the control cost function. A disadvantage of this approach is that closed-loop stability cannot be guaranteed, as a different linear controller may be activated at each time step. A way to implement a stable zone control is by means of the use of an infinite horizon cost in which the set point is an additional variable of the control problem. In this case, the set point is restricted to remain inside the output zone and an appropriate output slack variable is included in the optimisation problem to assure the recursive feasibility of the control optimisation problem. Following this approach, a robust MPC is developed for the case of multi-model uncertainty of open-loop stable systems. The controller is devoted to maintain the outputs within their corresponding feasible zone, while reaching the desired optimal input target. Simulation of a process of the oil re. ning industry illustrates the performance of the proposed strategy.