Conceitos de Física por meio do lançamento de foguetes de garrafa PET : uma proposta de transposição didática no ensino médio

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Física, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Física, Mestrado Nacional Profissional em Ensino de Física, 2015.

Conceitos de Física por meio do lançamento de foguetes de garrafa PET : uma proposta de transposição didática no ensino médio

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Física, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Física, Mestrado Nacional Profissional em Ensino de Física, 2015.

Upper Limb Posture Estimation in Robotic and Virtual Reality-based Rehabilitation.

New motor rehabilitation therapies include virtual reality (VR) and robotic technologies. In limb rehabilitation, limb posture is required to (1) provide a limb realistic representation in VR games and (2) assess the patient improvement. When exoskeleton devices are used in the therapy, the measurements of their joint angles cannot be directly used to represent the posture of the patient limb, since the human and exoskeleton kinematic models differ. In response to this shortcoming, we propose a method to estimate the posture of the human limb attached to the exoskeleton. We use the exoskeleton joint angles measurements and the constraints of the exoskeleton on the limb to estimate the human limb joints angles. This paper presents (a) the mathematical formulation and solution to the problem, (b) the implementation of the proposed solution on a commercial exoskeleton system for the upper limb rehabilitation, (c) its integration into a rehabilitation VR game platform, and (d) the quantitative assessment of the method during elbow and wrist analytic training. Results show that this method properly estimates the limb posture to (i) animate avatars that represent the patient in VR games and (ii) obtain kinematic data for the patient assessment during elbow and wrist analytic rehabilitation.

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

The impact and control of malignant catarrhal fever in Tanzania

Malignant Catarrhal Fever (MCF), an often-lethal infectious disease, presents as a variable complex of lesions in susceptible ungulate species. The disease is caused by a -herpesvirus following transmission from an inapparent carrier host. Two major epidemiological forms exist: wildebeest-associated MCF (WA-MCF), in which the virus is transmitted to susceptible species by wildebeest calves less than approximately four months of age, and sheepassociated MCF (SA-MCF) in which the virus is spread by sheep (primarily adolescents). Due to the lack of an in-vitro propagation system for the causative agent of the more economically significant SA-MCF, and with the expectation that cross-protective immunity may be provided, vaccine development has focused on the more easily propagated alcelaphine herpesvirus-1 (AlHV-1) that causes WA-MCF. In 2008 a direct viral challenge trial showed that a novel vaccine, employing an attenuated AlHV-1 (atAlHV-1) `C5000 virus strain, protected British Friesian-Holstein (FH) cattle against an intranasal challenge with virulent AlHV-1 `C5000 virus. For cattle keeping people living near wildebeest calving areas in sub-Saharan Africa an effective vaccine would have value as it would release them from the costly annual disease avoidance strategy of having to move their herds away from the oncoming wildebeest. On the other hand, an effective vaccine will release herd owners from the need to avoid MCF, allowing them to graze their cattle alongside wildebeest on the highly nutritious pastures of the calving areas. As such conservationists have raised concerns that the development of a vaccine might lead to detrimental grazing competition. The principle objective of this study was to test the novel vaccine on Tanzanian shorthorn zebu cross cattle (SZC).We did this firstly using a natural challenge field trial (Chapter Two) which demonstrated that immunisation with the atAlHV-1 vaccine was well tolerated and induced an oro-nasopharyngeal AlHV-1-specific and -neutralising antibody response. This resulted in an immunity in SZC cattle that was partially protective and reduced naturally transmitted infection by 56%. We also demonstrated that non-fatal infections occurred with a much higher frequency than previously thought. Because the calculated efficacy of the vaccine was less than that seen in British FH cattle we wanted to determine whether host factors, particular to SZC cattle, had impacted the outcomes of the field trial. To do this we repeated the 2008 direct viral challenge trial using SZC cattle (Chapter Four). During this trial we also investigated whether the recombinant bacterial flagellin monomer (FliC), when used as an adjuvant, might improve the vaccine’s efficacy. The findings from this trial indicated that direct challenge with pathogenic AlHV-1 is effective at inducing MCF in SZC cattle and that FliC is not an appropriate adjuvant for this vaccine. Furthermore, with less control group cattle dying of MCF than expected we speculate that SZC cattle may have a degree of resistance to MCF that affords them protection from infection and developing fatal disease. In Chapter Three we investigated aspects of the epidemiology of MCF, specifically whether wildebeest placenta, long implicated by Maasai cattle owners as a source of MCF, might play a role in viral transmission. Additionally, through comparative sequence analysis, at two specific genes (A9.5 and ORF50) of wild-type and atAlHV-1, we investigated whether the `C5000 strain, the source of which was taken from Africa more than 40 years ago, was appropriate for vaccine development. The detection of AlHV-1 virus in approximately 50% of placentae indicated that infection can occur in-utero and that this tissue might play a role in disease transmission. And, despite describing three new alleles of the A9.5 gene (supporting previous evidence that this gene is polymorphic and encodes a secretory protein with interleukin-4 as the major homologue), the observation that the most frequently detected haplotypes, in both wild-type and attenuated AlHV-1, were identical suggests that AlHV-1 has a slow molecular clock and that the attenuated strain was appropriate for vaccine development. In Chapter Five we present the first quantitative assessment of the annual MCF avoidance costs that Maasai pastoralists incur. In particular we estimated that as a result of MCF avoidance 64% of the total daily milk yield during the MCF season was not available to be used by the 81% of the family unit remaining at the permanent boma. This represents an upper-bound loss of approximately 8% of a household0s annual income. Despite these considerable losses we concluded that, given an incidence of fatal MCF in cattle living in wildebeest calving areas of 5% to 10%, if herd owners were to stop trying to avoid MCF by allowing their cattle to graze alongside wildebeest, any gains made through increased availability of milk, improved body condition and reduced energy demands would be offset by an increase in MCF-incidence. With the development of an effective vaccine, however, this alternative strategy might become optimal. The overall conclusion we draw therefore is that, despite the substantial costs incurred each year avoiding MCF, the partial protection afforded by the novel vaccine strategy is not sufficient to warrant a wholesale change in disease avoidance strategy. Nonetheless, even the partial protection provided by this vaccine could be of value to protect animals that cannot be moved, for example where some of the herd remain at the boma to provide milk or where land-use changes make traditional disease avoidance difficult. Furthermore, the vaccine may offer a feasible solution to some of the current land-use challenges and conflicts, providing a degree of protection to valuable livestock where avoidance strategies are not possible, but with less risk of precipitating the potentially damaging environmental consequences, such as overgrazing of highly nutritious seasonal pastures, that might result if herd owners decide they no longer need to avoid wildebeest.

Quantitative multi-slice computed tomography assessment of the mitral valvular complex for transcatheter mitral valve interventions part 1: systematic measurement methodology and inter-observer variability

AIMS Transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR) is an emerging technology with the potential to treat patients with severe mitral regurgitation at excessive risk for surgical mitral valve surgery. Multimodal imaging of the mitral valvular complex and surrounding structures will be an important component for patient selection for TMVR. Our aim was to describe and evaluate a systematic multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) image analysis methodology that provides measurements relevant for transcatheter mitral valve replacement. METHODS AND RESULTS A systematic step-by-step measurement methodology is described for structures of the mitral valvular complex including: the mitral valve annulus, left ventricle, left atrium, papillary muscles and left ventricular outflow tract. To evaluate reproducibility, two observers applied this methodology to a retrospective series of 49 cardiac MSCT scans in patients with heart failure and significant mitral regurgitation. For each of 25 geometrical metrics, we evaluated inter-observer difference and intra-class correlation. The inter-observer difference was below 10% and the intra-class correlation was above 0.81 for measurements of critical importance in the sizing of TMVR devices: the mitral valve annulus diameters, area, perimeter, the inter-trigone distance, and the aorto-mitral angle. CONCLUSIONS MSCT can provide measurements that are important for patient selection and sizing of TMVR devices. These measurements have excellent inter-observer reproducibility in patients with functional mitral regurgitation.

Assessment of Speech Dialog Systems using Multi-Modal Cognitive Load Analysis and Driving Performance Metrics

In this paper, cognitive load analysis via acoustic- and CAN-Bus-based driver performance metrics is employed to assess two different commercial speech dialog systems (SDS) during in-vehicle use. Several metrics are proposed to measure increases in stress, distraction and cognitive load and we compare these measures with statistical analysis of the speech recognition component of each SDS. It is found that care must be taken when designing an SDS as it may increase cognitive load which can be observed through increased speech response delay (SRD), changes in speech production due to negative emotion towards the SDS, and decreased driving performance on lateral control tasks. From this study, guidelines are presented for designing systems which are to be used in vehicular environments.

Health risk from the use of roof-harvested rainwater in Southeast Queensland, Australia, as potable or nonpotable water, determined using quantitative microbial risk assessment

A total of 214 rainwater samples from 82 tanks were collected in urban Southeast Queensland (SEQ) in Australia and analysed for the zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogen using real-time binary PCR and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to potential pathogens from potable and non-potable uses of roof-harvested rainwater. Of the 214 samples tested, 10.7%, 9.8%, and 5.6%, and 0.4% samples were positive for Salmonella invA, Giardia lamblia β-giardin , Legionella pneumophila mip, and Campylobacter jejuni mapA genes. Cryptosporidium parvum could not be detected. The estimated numbers of viable Salmonella spp., G. lamblia β-giradin, and L. pneumophila genes ranged from 1.6 × 101 to 9.5 × 101 cells, 1.4 × 10-1 to 9.0 × 10-1 cysts, and 1.5 × 101 to 4.3 × 101 per 1000 ml of water, respectively. Six risk scenarios were considered from exposure to Salmonella spp., G. lamblia and L. pneumophila. For Salmonella spp., and G. lamblia, these scenarios were: (1) liquid ingestion due to drinking of rainwater on a daily basis (2) accidental liquid ingestion due to garden hosing twice a week (3) aerosol ingestion due to showering on a daily basis, and (4) aerosol ingestion due to hosing twice a week. For L. pneumophila, these scenarios were: (5) aerosol inhalation due to showering on a daily basis, and (6) aerosol inhalation due to hosing twice a week. The risk of infection from Salmonella spp., G. lamblia, and L. pneumophila associated with the use of rainwater for showering and garden hosing was calculated to be well below the threshold value of one extra infection per 10,000 persons per year in urban SEQ. However, the risk of infection from ingesting Salmonella spp. and G. lamblia via drinking exceeds this threshold value, and indicates that if undisinfected rainwater were ingested by drinking, then the gastrointestinal diseases of Salmonellosis and Giardiasis is expected to range from 5.0 × 100 to 2.8 × 101 (Salmonellosis) and 1.0 × 101 to 6.4 × 101 (Giardiasis) cases per 10,000 persons per year, respectively. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically examined. Nonetheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for potable use.

Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Quantitative fit assessment of a precontoured fracture fixation plate : its automation and an investigation on the borderline cases

Virtual methods to assess the fitting of a fracture fixation plate were proposed recently, however with limitations such as simplified fit criteria or manual data processing. This study aims to automate a fit analysis procedure using clinical-based criteria, and then to analyse the results further for borderline fit cases. Three dimensional (3D) models of 45 bones and of a precontoured distal tibial plate were utilized to assess the fitting of the plate automatically. A Matlab program was developed to automatically measure the shortest distance between the bone and the plate at three regions of interest and a plate-bone angle. The measured values including the fit assessment results were recorded in a spreadsheet as part of the batch-process routine. An automated fit analysis procedure will enable the processing of larger bone datasets in a significantly shorter time, which will provide more representative data of the target population for plate shape design and validation. As a result, better fitting plates can be manufactured and made available to surgeons, thereby reducing the risk and cost associated with complications or corrective procedures. This in turn, is expected to translate into improving patients' quality of life.

Enterprise information security policy assessment : an extended framework for metrics development utilising the goal-question-metric approach

Effective enterprise information security policy management requires review and assessment activities to ensure information security policies are aligned with business goals and objectives. As security policy management involves the elements of policy development process and the security policy as output, the context for security policy assessment requires goal-based metrics for these two elements. However, the current security management assessment methods only provide checklist types of assessment that are predefined by industry best practices and do not allow for developing specific goal-based metrics. Utilizing theories drawn from literature, this paper proposes the Enterprise Information Security Policy Assessment approach that expands on the Goal-Question-Metric (GQM) approach. The proposed assessment approach is then applied in a case scenario example to illustrate a practical application. It is shown that the proposed framework addresses the requirement for developing assessment metrics and allows for the concurrent undertaking of process-based and product-based assessment. Recommendations for further research activities include the conduct of empirical research to validate the propositions and the practical application of the proposed assessment approach in case studies to provide opportunities to introduce further enhancements to the approach.

Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the regenerative potential of osteoblasts versus bone marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells in the reconstruction of critical sized segmental tibial bone defects in a large animal model

This thesis is about the use of different cells for bone tissue engineering. The cells were used in combination with a novel biomaterial in a large tibial bone defects in a sheep model. Furthermore this study developed a novel cell delivery procedure for bone tissue engineering. This novel procedure of cell delivery could overcome the current problems of cell-based tissue engineering and serve as a baseline for the translation of novel concepts into clinical application.

Quantifying Vocal Mimicry in the Greater Racket-Tailed Drongo: A Comparison of Automated Methods and Human Assessment

Objective identification and description of mimicked calls is a primary component of any study on avian vocal mimicry but few studies have adopted a quantitative approach. We used spectral feature representations commonly used in human speech analysis in combination with various distance metrics to distinguish between mimicked and non-mimicked calls of the greater racket-tailed drongo, Dicrurus paradiseus and cross-validated the results with human assessment of spectral similarity. We found that the automated method and human subjects performed similarly in terms of the overall number of correct matches of mimicked calls to putative model calls. However, the two methods also misclassified different subsets of calls and we achieved a maximum accuracy of ninety five per cent only when we combined the results of both the methods. This study is the first to use Mel-frequency Cepstral Coefficients and Relative Spectral Amplitude - filtered Linear Predictive Coding coefficients to quantify vocal mimicry. Our findings also suggest that in spite of several advances in automated methods of song analysis, corresponding cross-validation by humans remains essential.

The calibration of a semi-quantitative approach to fish stock assessment in the North West Region of the NRA

(1) A total of 45 sites was sampled, each being fished using the semi-quantitative and quantitative techniques. (2) A significant relationship existed between the semi-quantitative and Quantitative results for all age groups of salmonids (R2 83.4% to 96.1%, p < 0.0001). (3) The results from each site were categorised according to an existing classification system for quantitative and semi-quantitative data. The semi-quantitative component of this system was modified using the results of this investigation. The degree of error associated with sites classified semi-quantitatively was found to be slightly less when using the modified system for 0+ salmon, > 0+ salmon and 0+ trout, ranging from 10.5% to 30%. (4) Insufficient data points were available for the analysis of coarse fish data.