Probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures

In developed countries, civil infrastructures are one of the most significant investments of governments, corporations, and individuals. Among these, transportation infrastructures, including highways, bridges, airports, and ports, are of huge importance, both economical and social. Most developed countries have built a fairly complete network of highways to fit their needs. As a result, the required investment in building new highways has diminished during the last decade, and should be further reduced in the following years. On the other hand, significant structural deteriorations have been detected in transportation networks, and a huge investment is necessary to keep these infrastructures safe and serviceable. Due to the significant importance of bridges in the serviceability of highway networks, maintenance of these structures plays a major role. In this paper, recent progress in probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures with emphasis on bridges is summarized. A novel model including interaction between structural safety analysis,through the safety index, and visual inspections and non destructive tests, through the condition index, is presented. Single objective optimization techniques leading to maintenance strategies associated with minimum expected cumulative cost and acceptable levels of condition and safety are presented. Furthermore, multi-objective optimization is used to simultaneously consider several performance indicators such as safety, condition, and cumulative cost. Realistic examples of the application of some of these techniques and strategies are also presented.

Viabilidade económico-financeira do projecto da Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados de Longa Duração e Manutenção da Fundação COI : estudo de caso

RESUMO - Este trabalho consiste numa análise sobre a viabilidade económico-financeira do projecto de construção de uma Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados de Longa Duração e Manutenção pela Fundação COI, que pretende ser uma resposta adequada à diversidade de fenómenos que têm origem no envelhecimento populacional, inserindo-se no modelo de prestação de cuidados de saúde e apoio social preconizado pela Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados. Em termos estruturais, numa primeira fase, o trabalho faz uma análise sobre o estado da arte dos cuidados continuado, nomeadamente através da sua conceptualização e enquadramento, focando os aspectos e características da RNCCI, nomeadamente os aspectos relacionados com a sustentabilidade financeira e os desafios futuros que este sector da saúde se confronta. Numa segunda fase, o trabalho apresenta o projecto de investimento alvo do estudo de caso, mediante o enquadramento histórico e caracterização da Fundação COI, sendo descrita especificamente a tipologia de longa duração e manutenção e o projecto em termos da sua estrutura física e humana. Numa terceira fase, o trabalho estuda a racionalidade do projecto de investimento, através da análise económico-financeira. Tendo-se concluído, com a utilização de indicadores de avaliação e decisão de investimentos, que a ULDM, é viável. Deve-se contudo ter em conta que a sua viabilidade é sensível a hipotéticas alterações de cenários, nomeadamente perante diferentes taxas de ocupação ou alteração do modelo de pagamento. ----------------------- ABSTRACT - This paper consists on analyzing the economical and financial viability of a project of Integrated Continuous Cares on Long-Term and Maintenance Unit (LTMU), managed by COI Foundation, that can create a correct social answer on the various aspects and phenomenon’s that have their origin in an aged population. This kind of project belongs in the role model of social and health cares of the National Network of Integrated Continuous Cares (NNICC). In a first stage the paper is focused on the analysis of the state of the present services of the continuous cares in Portugal, more concretely of his conceptualization and social frame, putting under the lights the aspects and characteristics of the NNICC, more closely the parts related to their financial sustainability and the challenges that this health sector faces nowadays. The next stage is about the investment project applied to this case-study, given his social and historical frame and attending to the specific characteristics of the COI Foundation. It’s also describing its specific LTMU typology under the involved physic and human structure. Finally this paper study the investment project rationality trough scientific methods like its economic–financial analysis. The conclusion, using decision and evaluation procedures that lead to financial indicators, is that the LTMU, is viable. However, the viability of the project is sensible to an hypothetical change of scenario, namely with different rates of change of occupation or type of payment.

Withdrawal of maintenance therapy for cytomegalovirus retinitis in AIDS patients exhibiting immunological response to HAART

BACKGROUND: Before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), CMV retinitis was a common complication in patients with advanced HIV disease and the therapy was well established; it consisted of an induction phase to control the infection with ganciclovir, followed by a lifelong maintenance phase to avoid or delay relapses. METHODS: To determine the safety of CMV maintenance therapy withdrawal in patients with immune recovery after HAART, 35 patients with treated CMV retinitis, on maintenance therapy, with CD4+ cell count greater than 100 cells/mm³ for at least three months, but almost all patients presented these values for more than six months and viral load < 30000 copies/mL, were prospectively evaluated for the recurrence of CMV disease. Maintenance therapy was withdrawal at inclusion, and patients were monitored for at least 48 weeks by clinical and ophthalmologic evaluations, and by determination of CMV viremia markers (antigenemia-pp65), CD4+/CD8+ counts and plasma HIV RNA levels. Lymphoproliferative assays were performed on 26/35 patients. RESULTS: From 35 patients included, only one had confirmed reactivation of CMV retinitis, at day 120 of follow-up. No patient returned positive antigenemia tests. No correlation between lymphoproliferative assays and CD4+ counts was observed. CONCLUSION: CMV retinitis maintenance therapy discontinuation is safe for those patients with quantitative immune recovery after HAART.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Six thinking hats: A novel metalearner for intelligent decision support in electricity markets

The energy sector has suffered a significant restructuring that has increased the complexity in electricity market players' interactions. The complexity that these changes brought requires the creation of decision support tools to facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. The Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) arose in this context, providing a simulation framework for deregulated electricity markets. The Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System (ALBidS) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM, ALBidS considers several different strategic methodologies based on highly distinct approaches. Six Thinking Hats (STH) is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives, forcing the thinker to move outside its usual way of thinking. This paper aims to complement the ALBidS strategies by combining them and taking advantage of their different perspectives through the use of the STH group decision technique. The combination of ALBidS' strategies is performed through the application of a genetic algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.

Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering

Decision making processes based on innovation indicators: which implications for technology assessment?

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment. This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Manuel Laranja (ISEG-UTL). Other members of the thesis committee are Stefan Kuhlmann (Twente University), Leonhard Hennen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS), Tiago Santos Pereira (Universidade de Coimbra/CES) and Cristina Sousa (FCT-UNL).

Decision-making process in radiology: the magnetic resonance example in the TA context

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment (Doctoral Conference) at Universidade Nova de Lisboa (December 2011). This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Michael Decker (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS). Other members of the thesis committee are Carlos Alberto da Silva (University of Évora), José Maria de Albuquerque (Institute of Welding and Quality), Lotte Steuten (University of Twente), Mário Forjaz Secca (FCT-UNL) and Nelson Chibeles Martins (FCT-UNL).

Patologias na Superestrutura da Ferrovia Balastrada

Nesta dissertação de Mestrado, pretende-se contribuir para o conhecimento no âmbito das patologias da ferrovia, nomeadamente no que se refere a patologias em carril, balastro, travessas e elementos de fixação, tendo sido coletado neste trabalho as mais variadas patologias da ferrovia balastrada bem como a sua catalogação socioeconómica, permitindo com essa enumeração tomadas de decisão coerentes e assertivas no que respeita a recomendações a efetuar tanto como diagnostico como para manutenção. O trabalho inicia-se por uma introdução relativa ao aparecimento da ferrovia num contexto internacional, particularizando posteriormente o caso de Portugal até ao estado da arte atual, com um pequeno desenvolvimento a nível socie-económico com as grandes obras e projetos para os próximos anos. Para além da síntese de conhecimentos referida, apresentou-se um pouco da atualidade ferroviária de alguns países com relevância, quer por associação fronteiriça quer por desenvolvimento tecnológico. Apresenta-se brevemente os componentes mais importantes da ferrovia balastrada com especial destaque para os elementos da superestrutura de via, nos quais se engloba o carril, as travessas, os elementos de fixação e o balastro. Por fim esta dissertação apresenta um trabalho exaustivo na recolha e investigação das várias patologias associadas ao carril, as travessas, aos elementos de fixação e ao balastro, bem como o sistema de código, recomendações e correções associadas, fornecendo assim uma fácil interpretação do tipo de patologia e defeitos associados ao desenvolvimento desses fenómenos.

Environmental Decision-making utilizing a Web GIS to Monitor Hazardous Industrial Emissions in the Valencian community of Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Integration of the project team in the classic maintenance cycle

A manutenção é uma área extremamente importante, principalmente na indústria. Devidamente organizada, permitirá um fluxo produtivo devidamente planeado e executado, que permitirá a qualquer empresa manter o nível de facturação desejado e o prazo de entrega acordado com os clientes. De outra forma, poderá originar o caos. No entanto, os desafios de gestão da produção mais correntes, nomeadamente através do Lean Manufacturing, passam a exigir um pouco mais do que uma simples manutenção. Torna-se obrigatório fazer análises económicas que permitam averiguar quando cada equipamento passa a exigir custos de manutenção excessivos, os quais poderão obrigar a um recondicionamento mais acentuado do equipamento, o qual pode passar inclusivamente por uma melhoria da sua performance. Nestes casos, terá que existir uma “cumplicidade” entre a Direcção de Produção e a Manutenção, no sentido de averiguar o melhor momento para proceder a uma melhoria do equipamento, numa perspectiva de funcionamento global em linha de produção, adaptando-o à performance que será exigida ao conjunto. Neste domínio, o Projecto passa a prestar um serviço valiosíssimo à empresa, integrando-se no conjunto Produção + Manutenção, criando valor na intervenção, através do desenvolvimento de um trabalho que permite não só repor o estado natural da produção, mas sim promover uma melhoria sustentada da mesma. Este trabalho pretende reflectir e avaliar a relevância do Projecto neste tipo de operações, contribuindo de uma forma sistemática e sustentada para a melhoria contínua dos processos de fabrico. É apresentado um caso de estudo que pretende validar todo o desenvolvimento anteriormente realizado na matéria.

The Role of Psychological Adjustment in the Decision-Making Process for Voluntary Termination of Pregnancy

BACKGROUND: This study's objective was to evaluate the role of psychological adjustment in the decision-making process to have an abortion and explore individual variables that might influence this decision. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we sequentially enrolled 150 women who made the decision to voluntarily terminate a pregnancy in Maternity Dr. Alfredo da Costa, in Lisbon, Portugal, between September 2008 and June 2009. The instruments were the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS), Satisfaction with Social Support Scale (SSSS), Emotional Assessment Scale (EAS), Decision Conflict Scale (DCS), and Beliefs and Values Questionnaire (BVQ). We analyzed the data using Student's T-tests, MANOVA, ANOVA, Tukey's post-hoc tests and CATPCA. Statistically significant effects were accepted for p<0.05. RESULTS: The participants found the decision difficult and emotionally demanding, although they also identified it as a low conflict decision. The prevailing emotions were sadness, fear and stress; but despite these feelings, the participants remained psychologically adjusted in the moment they decided to have an abortion. The resolution to terminate the pregnancy was essentially shared with supportive people and it was mostly motivated by socio-economic issues. The different beliefs and values found in this sample, and their possible associations are discussed. CONCLUSION: Despite high levels of stress, the women were psychologically adjusted at the time of making the decision to terminate the pregnancy. However, opposing what has been previously reported, the women presented high levels of sadness and fear, showing that this decision was hard to make, triggering disruptive emotions.

Lean management implementation: a decision making framework

Submitted to the graduate faculty Universidade Nova de Lisboa – Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Industrial Engineering

Implementação, documentação e avaliação da aplicação de Lean Maintenance no Sistema de Armas Epsilon

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

An ANP model to support decision-making in a Portuguese pharmaceutical supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial