New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Ozone formation potentials of volatile organic compounds and ozone sensitivity to their emission in the megacity of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the present study, a three-dimensional Eulerian photochemical model was employed to estimate the impact that organic compounds have on tropospheric ozone formation in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP). In the year 2000, base case simulations were conducted in two periods: August 22-24 and March 13-15. Based on the pollutant concentrations calculated by the model, the correlation coefficient relative to observations for ozone ranged from 0.91 to 0.93 in both periods. In the simulations employed to evaluate the ozone potential of individual VOCs, as well as the sensitivity of ozone to the VOC/NO(x) emission ratio, the variation in anthropogenic emissions was estimated at 15% (according to tests performed previously variations of 15% were stable). Although there were significant differences between the two periods, ozone concentrations were found to be much more sensitive to VOCs than to NO(x) in both periods and throughout the study domain. In addition, considering their individual rates of emission from vehicles, the species/classes that were most important for ozone formation were as follows: aromatics with a kOH>2x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); ethene; and formaldehyde, which are the principal species related to the production, transport, storage and combustion of fossil fuels.

3-manifolds in Euclidean space from a contact viewpoint

We study the geometry of 3-manifolds generically embedded in R(n) by means of the analysis of the singularities of the distance-squared and height functions on them. We describe the local structure of the discriminant (associated to the distribution of asymptotic directions), the ridges and the flat ridges.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models: Full Bayesian analysis

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models under right-censored survival data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the considered model. In order to attenuate the influence of the outlying observations on the parameter estimates, we present in this paper Birnbaum-Saunders models in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. Also, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given and case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The developed procedures are illustrated with a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data

In interval-censored survival data, the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval. Such data appear very frequently. In this paper, we are concerned only with parametric forms, and so a location-scale regression model based on the exponentiated Weibull distribution is proposed for modeling interval-censored data. We show that the proposed log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data represents a parametric family of models that include other regression models that are broadly used in lifetime data analysis. Assuming the use of interval-censored data, we employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, a parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Furthermore, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed; in addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to a modified deviance residual in log-exponentiated Weibull regression models for interval-censored data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized log-gamma regression models with cure fraction

In this paper, the generalized log-gamma regression model is modified to allow the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. This modification leads to a generalized log-gamma regression model with a cure rate, encompassing, as special cases, the log-exponential, log-Weibull and log-normal regression models with a cure rate typically used to model such data. The models attempt to simultaneously estimate the effects of explanatory variables on the timing acceleration/deceleration of a given event and the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The normal curvatures of local influence are derived under some usual perturbation schemes and two martingale-type residuals are proposed to assess departures from the generalized log-gamma error assumption as well as to detect outlying observations. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Limitation of double folding potentials to simulate the polarization in reactions involving halo nuclei

In this work, we investigate the limitation of the use of strength coefficients on double folding potentials to study the presence of the threshold anomaly in the elastic scattering of halo nuclei at near barrier energies. For this purpose, elastic angular distributions and reaction cross sections for the He-6 on Bi-209 are studied. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A further exploration of a nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials

An empirical nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials has been recently shown to be useful categorizing and settling the nucleophilicity power of a series of captodative ethylenes reacting in cycloaddition reactions (L.R. Domingo, E. Chamorro, P. Perez, Journal of Organic Chemistry 73 (2008) 4615-4624). In the present work, the applicability of such model is tested within a broader series of substituted alkenes, substituted aromatic compounds and simple nucleophilic molecules. This index obtained within a Koopman`s theorem framework has been evaluated here in both gas and solution phases for several well-known nucleophiles. These results are found to be linearly correlated. Finally, the feasibility of the predictive character of this index has been discussed in comparison to the available experimental nucleophilicities of some amines in water. These results further support and validate the usefulness of such approximation in the modeling of the global nucleophilicity. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservation laws and tachyon potentials in the sliver frame

Conservation laws have provided an elegant and efficient tool to evaluate the open string field theory interaction vertex, they have been originally implemented in the case where the string field is expanded in the Virasoro basis. In this work we derive conservation laws in the case where the string field is expanded in the so-called sliver L(0)-basis. As an application of this new set of conservation laws, we compute the open string field action relevant to the tachyon condensation and in order to present not only an illustration but also an additional information, we evaluate the action without imposing a gauge choice.

Bose systems in spatially random or time-varying potentials

Bose systems, subject to the action of external random potentials, are considered. For describing the system properties, under the action of spatially random potentials of arbitrary strength, the stochastic mean-field approximation is employed. When the strength of disorder increases, the extended Bose-Einstein condensate fragments into spatially disconnected regions, forming a granular condensate. Increasing the strength of disorder even more transforms the granular condensate into the normal glass. The influence of time-dependent external potentials is also discussed. Fastly varying temporal potentials, to some extent, imitate the action of spatially random potentials. In particular, strong time-alternating potential can induce the appearance of a nonequilibrium granular condensate.

Deviance residuals in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations

In this article, we compare three residuals based on the deviance component in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. For all cases studied, the empirical distributions of the proposed residuals are in general symmetric around zero, but only a martingale-type residual presented negligible kurtosis for the majority of the cases studied. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for the martingale-type residual in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored data. A lifetime data set is analysed under log-gamma regression models and a model checking based on the martingale-type residual is performed.

The log-bimodal-skew-normal model. A geochemical application

The main objective of this paper is to study a logarithm extension of the bimodal skew normal model introduced by Elal-Olivero et al. [1]. The model can then be seen as an alternative to the log-normal model typically used for fitting positive data. We study some basic properties such as the distribution function and moments, and discuss maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. We report results of an application to a real data set related to nickel concentration in soil samples. Model fitting comparison with several alternative models indicates that the model proposed presents the best fit and so it can be quite useful in real applications for chemical data on substance concentration. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Construction of Hamiltonian-Minimal Lagrangian submanifolds in Complex Euclidean Space

We describe several families of Lagrangian submanifolds in complex Euclidean space which are H-minimal, i.e. critical points of the volume functional restricted to Hamiltonian variations. We make use of various constructions involving planar, spherical and hyperbolic curves, as well as Legendrian submanifolds of the odd-dimensional unit sphere.

Spectroscopic evidences of the presence of hydrogenated species on the surface of copper during CO(2) electroreduction at low cathodic potentials

Carbon dioxide electroreduction on copper electrode was studied by surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) in K(2)SO(4) aqueous solutions with different pH values. CO(2) was bubbled into the solution at 0 V vs. Ag/AgCl, i.e., on an oxidized copper surface. In acidic solutions (pH around 2.5), at -0.2 V, bands indicative of the presence of ethylene on the electrode surface were detected. Although ethylene is knowledgably a product of CO(2) electroreduction on copper, it was not experimentally identified on the electrode`s surface at such a low cathodic potential in prior works. In solutions with pH around 2.5, CO bands were not observed, suggesting that hydrocarbons could be formed by a pathway that does not occur via adsorbed CO. In solutions with higher pHs, a complex spectral pattern, between 800 and 1700 cm(-1), was observed at approximately -0.4 V. The observed spectrum closely resembles those reported in the literature for adsorption of monocarboxylic acids with small chains. The spectral features indicate the presence of a structure containing a double C=C bond. a carboxyl group, and C-H bonds on the electrode`s surface. SERS spectra obtained in CO-saturated solution are also presented. However, in this case, no SERS bands were observed in the region between 800 and 1700 cm(-1) at low cathodic potentials. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.