Constructing stability landscapes to identify alternative states in coupled social-ecological agent-based models

The resilience of a social-ecological system is measured by its ability to retain core functionality when subjected to perturbation. Resilience is contextually dependent on the state of system components, the complex interactions among these components, and the timing, location, and magnitude of perturbations. The stability landscape concept provides a useful framework for considering resilience within the specified context of a particular social-ecological system but has proven difficult to operationalize. This difficulty stems largely from the complex, multidimensional nature of the systems of interest and uncertainty in system response. Agent-based models are an effective methodology for understanding how cross-scale processes within and across social and ecological domains contribute to overall system resilience. We present the results of a stylized model of agricultural land use in a small watershed that is typical of the Midwestern United States. The spatially explicit model couples land use, biophysical models, and economic drivers with an agent-based model to explore the effects of perturbations and policy adaptations on system outcomes. By applying the coupled modeling approach within the resilience and stability landscape frameworks, we (1) estimate the sensitivity of the system to context-specific perturbations, (2) determine potential outcomes of those perturbations, (3) identify possible alternative states within state space, (4) evaluate the resilience of system states, and (5) characterize changes in system-scale resilience brought on by changes in individual land use decisions.

Looking for a road to get out for poverty. Is the current allocation of public spending on education in Colombia helping?

This paper presents a methodology to explore the impact on poverty of the public spending on education. The methodology consists of two approaches: Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA) and behavioral approach. BIA considers the cost and use of the educational service, and the distribution of the benefits among groups of income. Regarding the behavioral approach, we use a Probit model of schooling attendance, in order to determinethe influence of public spending on the probability for thepoor to attend the school. As a complement, a measurement of targeting errors in the allocation of public spending is included in the methodology.

Navigating uncertain waters: a critical review of inferring foraging behaviour from location and dive data in pinnipeds

In the last thirty years, the emergence and progression of biologging technology has led to great advances in marine predator ecology. Large databases of location and dive observations from biologging devices have been compiled for an increasing number of diving predator species (such as pinnipeds, sea turtles, seabirds and cetaceans), enabling complex questions about animal activity budgets and habitat use to be addressed. Central to answering these questions is our ability to correctly identify and quantify the frequency of essential behaviours, such as foraging. Despite technological advances that have increased the quality and resolution of location and dive data, accurately interpreting behaviour from such data remains a challenge, and analytical methods are only beginning to unlock the full potential of existing datasets. This review evaluates both traditional and emerging methods and presents a starting platform of options for future studies of marine predator foraging ecology, particularly from location and two-dimensional (time-depth) dive data. We outline the different devices and data types available, discuss the limitations and advantages of commonly-used analytical techniques, and highlight key areas for future research. We focus our review on pinnipeds - one of the most studied taxa of marine predators - but offer insights that will be applicable to other air-breathing marine predator tracking studies. We highlight that traditionally-used methods for inferring foraging from location and dive data, such as first-passage time and dive shape analysis, have important caveats and limitations depending on the nature of the data and the research question. We suggest that more holistic statistical techniques, such as state-space models, which can synthesise multiple track, dive and environmental metrics whilst simultaneously accounting for measurement error, offer more robust alternatives. Finally, we identify a need for more research to elucidate the role of physical oceanography, device effects, study animal selection, and developmental stages in predator behaviour and data interpretation.

DISPATCHING AND RELOCATION OF EMERGENCY VEHICLES ON FREEWAYS: THEORIES AND APPLICATIONS

Resource allocation decisions are made to serve the current emergency without knowing which future emergency will be occurring. Different ordered combinations of emergencies result in different performance outcomes. Even though future decisions can be anticipated with scenarios, previous models follow an assumption that events over a time interval are independent. This dissertation follows an assumption that events are interdependent, because speed reduction and rubbernecking due to an initial incident provoke secondary incidents. The misconception that secondary incidents are not common has resulted in overlooking a look-ahead concept. This dissertation is a pioneer in relaxing the structural assumptions of independency during the assignment of emergency vehicles. When an emergency is detected and a request arrives, an appropriate emergency vehicle is immediately dispatched. We provide tools for quantifying impacts based on fundamentals of incident occurrences through identification, prediction, and interpretation of secondary incidents. A proposed online dispatching model minimizes the cost of moving the next emergency unit, while making the response as close to optimal as possible. Using the look-ahead concept, the online model flexibly re-computes the solution, basing future decisions on present requests. We introduce various online dispatching strategies with visualization of the algorithms, and provide insights on their differences in behavior and solution quality. The experimental evidence indicates that the algorithm works well in practice. After having served a designated request, the available and/or remaining vehicles are relocated to a new base for the next emergency. System costs will be excessive if delay regarding dispatching decisions is ignored when relocating response units. This dissertation presents an integrated method with a principle of beginning with a location phase to manage initial incidents and progressing through a dispatching phase to manage the stochastic occurrence of next incidents. Previous studies used the frequency of independent incidents and ignored scenarios in which two incidents occurred within proximal regions and intervals. The proposed analytical model relaxes the structural assumptions of Poisson process (independent increments) and incorporates evolution of primary and secondary incident probabilities over time. The mathematical model overcomes several limiting assumptions of the previous models, such as no waiting-time, returning rule to original depot, and fixed depot. The temporal locations flexible with look-ahead are compared with current practice that locates units in depots based on Poisson theory. A linearization of the formulation is presented and an efficient heuristic algorithm is implemented to deal with a large-scale problem in real-time.

Improved models for estimating temporal changes in carbon sequestration in above-ground biomass of mixed-species environmental plantings

Plantings of mixed native species (termed 'environmental plantings') are increasingly being established for carbon sequestration whilst providing additional environmental benefits such as biodiversity and water quality. In Australia, they are currently one of the most common forms of reforestation. Investment in establishing and maintaining such plantings relies on having a cost-effective modelling approach to providing unbiased estimates of biomass production and carbon sequestration rates. In Australia, the Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is used for both national greenhouse gas accounting and project-scale sequestration activities. Prior to undertaking the work presented here, the FullCAM tree growth curve was not calibrated specifically for environmental plantings and generally under-estimated their biomass. Here we collected and analysed above-ground biomass data from 605 mixed-species environmental plantings, and tested the effects of several planting characteristics on growth rates. Plantings were then categorised based on significant differences in growth rates. Growth of plantings differed between temperate and tropical regions. Tropical plantings were relatively uniform in terms of planting methods and their growth was largely related to stand age, consistent with the un-calibrated growth curve. However, in temperate regions where plantings were more variable, key factors influencing growth were planting width, stand density and species-mix (proportion of individuals that were trees). These categories provided the basis for FullCAM calibration. Although the overall model efficiency was only 39-46%, there was nonetheless no significant bias when the model was applied to the various planting categories. Thus, modelled estimates of biomass accumulation will be reliable on average, but estimates at any particular location will be uncertain, with either under- or over-prediction possible. When compared with the un-calibrated yield curves, predictions using the new calibrations show that early growth is likely to be more rapid and total above-ground biomass may be higher for many plantings at maturity. This study has considerably improved understanding of the patterns of growth in different types of environmental plantings, and in modelling biomass accumulation in young (<25. years old) plantings. However, significant challenges remain to understand longer-term stand dynamics, particularly with temporal changes in stand density and species composition. © 2014.

ADVERTISEMENT ALLOCATION AND TRUST MECHANISMS DESIGN IN SOCIAL NETWORKS

Social network sites (SNS), such as Facebook, Google+ and Twitter, have attracted hundreds of millions of users daily since their appearance. Within SNS, users connect to each other, express their identity, disseminate information and form cooperation by interacting with their connected peers. The increasing popularity and ubiquity of SNS usage and the invaluable user behaviors and connections give birth to many applications and business models. We look into several important problems within the social network ecosystem. The first one is the SNS advertisement allocation problem. The other two are related to trust mechanisms design in social network setting, including local trust inference and global trust evaluation. In SNS advertising, we study the problem of advertisement allocation from the ad platform's angle, and discuss its differences with the advertising model in the search engine setting. By leveraging the connection between social networks and hyperbolic geometry, we propose to solve the problem via approximation using hyperbolic embedding and convex optimization. A hyperbolic embedding method, \hcm, is designed for the SNS ad allocation problem, and several components are introduced to realize the optimization formulation. We show the advantages of our new approach in solving the problem compared to the baseline integer programming (IP) formulation. In studying the problem of trust mechanisms in social networks, we consider the existence of distrust (i.e. negative trust) relationships, and differentiate between the concept of local trust and global trust in social network setting. In the problem of local trust inference, we propose a 2-D trust model. Based on the model, we develop a semiring-based trust inference framework. In global trust evaluation, we consider a general setting with conflicting opinions, and propose a consensus-based approach to solve the complex problem in signed trust networks.

Decisions on investment allocation in the post-keynesian growth model

Neste artigo os modelos de crescimento e alocação de investimento a la Feldman-Mahalanobis são estendidos para considerar a análise de decisões de alocação de investimento no contexto do modelo de crescimento pós-Keynesiano. Ao adotar essa abordagem é possível introduzir características distributivas no modelo de Feldman-Mahalanobis que nos permitem determinar a taxa de alocação de investimentos de acordo com as decisões de equilíbrio entre investimento e poupança. Finalmente, uma condição adicional é adicionada ao modelo de crescimento pós-keynesiano, a fim de caracterizar plenamente o caminho de equilíbrio em uma versão estendida deste, onde bens de capital também são necessários para produzir bens de capital. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT

Reduced models of chemical reaction in chaotic flows

We describe and evaluate two reduced models for nonlinear chemical reactions in a chaotic laminar flow. Each model involves two separate steps to compute the chemical composition at a given location and time. The “manifold tracking model” first tracks backwards in time a segment of the stable manifold of the requisite point. This then provides a sample of the initial conditions appropriate for the second step, which requires solving one-dimensional problems for the reaction in Lagrangian coordinates. By contrast, the first step of the “branching trajectories model” simulates both the advection and diffusion of fluid particles that terminate at the appropriate point; the chemical reaction equations are then solved along each of the branched trajectories in a second step. Results from each model are compared with full numerical simulations of the reaction processes in a chaotic laminar flow.

Household portfolio allocation, risk attitudes and credit constraints : evidence from the eurozone

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira

Optimal resource allocation and budgeting in libraries

Libraries since their inception 4000 years ago have been in a process of constant change. Although, changes were in slow motion for centuries, in the last decades, academic libraries have been continuously striving to adapt their services to the ever-changing user needs of students and academic staff. In addition, e-content revolution, technological advances, and ever-shrinking budgets have obliged libraries to efficiently allocate their limited resources among collection and services. Unfortunately, this resource allocation is a complex process due to the diversity of data sources and formats required to be analyzed prior to decision-making, as well as the lack of efficient integration methods. The main purpose of this study is to develop an integrated model that supports libraries in making optimal budgeting and resource allocation decisions among their services and collection by means of a holistic analysis. To this end, a combination of several methodologies and structured approaches is conducted. Firstly, a holistic structure and the required toolset to holistically assess academic libraries are proposed to collect and organize the data from an economic point of view. A four-pronged theoretical framework is used in which the library system and collection are analyzed from the perspective of users and internal stakeholders. The first quadrant corresponds to the internal perspective of the library system that is to analyze the library performance, and costs incurred and resources consumed by library services. The second quadrant evaluates the external perspective of the library system; user’s perception about services quality is judged in this quadrant. The third quadrant analyses the external perspective of the library collection that is to evaluate the impact of the current library collection on its users. Eventually, the fourth quadrant evaluates the internal perspective of the library collection; the usage patterns followed to manipulate the library collection are analyzed. With a complete framework for data collection, these data coming from multiple sources and therefore with different formats, need to be integrated and stored in an adequate scheme for decision support. A data warehousing approach is secondly designed and implemented to integrate, process, and store the holistic-based collected data. Ultimately, strategic data stored in the data warehouse are analyzed and implemented for different purposes including the following: 1) Data visualization and reporting is proposed to allow library managers to publish library indicators in a simple and quick manner by using online reporting tools. 2) Sophisticated data analysis is recommended through the use of data mining tools; three data mining techniques are examined in this research study: regression, clustering and classification. These data mining techniques have been applied to the case study in the following manner: predicting the future investment in library development; finding clusters of users that share common interests and similar profiles, but belong to different faculties; and predicting library factors that affect student academic performance by analyzing possible correlations of library usage and academic performance. 3) Input for optimization models, early experiences of developing an optimal resource allocation model to distribute resources among the different processes of a library system are documented in this study. Specifically, the problem of allocating funds for digital collection among divisions of an academic library is addressed. An optimization model for the problem is defined with the objective of maximizing the usage of the digital collection over-all library divisions subject to a single collection budget. By proposing this holistic approach, the research study contributes to knowledge by providing an integrated solution to assist library managers to make economic decisions based on an “as realistic as possible” perspective of the library situation.

An analysis of the effects of preferential trade policies through the estimation of quantitative models: the case of Portugal.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Robustness in facility location

Facility location concerns the placement of facilities, for various objectives, by use of mathematical models and solution procedures. Almost all facility location models that can be found in literature are based on minimizing costs or maximizing cover, to cover as much demand as possible. These models are quite efficient for finding an optimal location for a new facility for a particular data set, which is considered to be constant and known in advance. In a real world situation, input data like demand and travelling costs are not fixed, nor known in advance. This uncertainty and uncontrollability can lead to unacceptable losses or even bankruptcy. A way of dealing with these factors is robustness modelling. A robust facility location model aims to locate a facility that stays within predefined limits for all expectable circumstances as good as possible. The deviation robustness concept is used as basis to develop a new competitive deviation robustness model. The competition is modelled with a Huff based model, which calculates the market share of the new facility. Robustness in this model is defined as the ability of a facility location to capture a minimum market share, despite variations in demand. A test case is developed by which algorithms can be tested on their ability to solve robust facility location models. Four stochastic optimization algorithms are considered from which Simulated Annealing turned out to be the most appropriate. The test case is slightly modified for a competitive market situation. With the Simulated Annealing algorithm, the developed competitive deviation model is solved, for three considered norms of deviation. At the end, also a grid search is performed to illustrate the landscape of the objective function of the competitive deviation model. The model appears to be multimodal and seems to be challenging for further research.

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

Improving Resource Management in Virtualized Data Centers using Application Performance Models

The rapid growth of virtualized data centers and cloud hosting services is making the management of physical resources such as CPU, memory, and I/O bandwidth in data center servers increasingly important. Server management now involves dealing with multiple dissimilar applications with varying Service-Level-Agreements (SLAs) and multiple resource dimensions. The multiplicity and diversity of resources and applications are rendering administrative tasks more complex and challenging. This thesis aimed to develop a framework and techniques that would help substantially reduce data center management complexity. We specifically addressed two crucial data center operations. First, we precisely estimated capacity requirements of client virtual machines (VMs) while renting server space in cloud environment. Second, we proposed a systematic process to efficiently allocate physical resources to hosted VMs in a data center. To realize these dual objectives, accurately capturing the effects of resource allocations on application performance is vital. The benefits of accurate application performance modeling are multifold. Cloud users can size their VMs appropriately and pay only for the resources that they need; service providers can also offer a new charging model based on the VMs performance instead of their configured sizes. As a result, clients will pay exactly for the performance they are actually experiencing; on the other hand, administrators will be able to maximize their total revenue by utilizing application performance models and SLAs. This thesis made the following contributions. First, we identified resource control parameters crucial for distributing physical resources and characterizing contention for virtualized applications in a shared hosting environment. Second, we explored several modeling techniques and confirmed the suitability of two machine learning tools, Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine, to accurately model the performance of virtualized applications. Moreover, we suggested and evaluated modeling optimizations necessary to improve prediction accuracy when using these modeling tools. Third, we presented an approach to optimal VM sizing by employing the performance models we created. Finally, we proposed a revenue-driven resource allocation algorithm which maximizes the SLA-generated revenue for a data center.

Combining multispecies home range and distribution models aids assessment of MPA effectiveness

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are today's most important tools for the spatial management and conservation of marine species. Yet, the true protection that they provide to individual fish is unknown, leading to uncertainty associated with MPA effectiveness. In this study, conducted in a recently established coastal MPA in Portugal, we combined the results of individual home range estimation and population distribution models for 3 species of commercial importance and contrasting life histories to infer (1) the size of suitable areas where they would be fully protected and (2) the vulnerability to fishing mortality of each species. Results show that the relationship between MPA size and effective protection is strongly modulated by both the species' home range and the distribution of suitable habitat inside and outside the MPA. This approach provides a better insight into the true potential of MPAs in effectively protecting marine species, since it can reveal the size and location of the areas where protection is most effective and a clear, quantitative estimation of the vulnerability to fishing throughout an entire MPA.