Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

Distributed energy resources in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization

Liberalization of electricity markets has resulted in a competed Nordic electricity market, in which electricity retailers play a key role as electricity suppliers, market intermediaries, and service providers. Although these roles may remain unchanged in the near future, the retailers’ operation may change fundamentally as a result of the emerging smart grid environment. Especially the increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DER), and improving opportunities for their control, are reshaping the operating environment of the retailers. This requires that the retailers’ operation models are developed to match the operating environment, in which the active use of DER plays a major role. Electricity retailers have a clientele, and they operate actively in the electricity markets, which makes them a natural market party to offer new services for end-users aiming at an efficient and market-based use of DER. From the retailer’s point of view, the active use of DER can provide means to adapt the operation to meet the challenges posed by the smart grid environment, and to pursue the ultimate objective of the retailer, which is to maximize the profit of operation. This doctoral dissertation introduces a methodology for the comprehensive use of DER in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization that covers operation in a variety of marketplaces including day-ahead, intra-day, and reserve markets. The analysis results provide data of the key profit-making opportunities and the risks associated with different types of DER use. Therefore, the methodology may serve as an efficient tool for an experienced operator in the planning of the optimal market-based DER use. The key contributions of this doctoral dissertation lie in the analysis and development of the model that allows the retailer to benefit from profit-making opportunities brought by the use of DER in different marketplaces, but also to manage the major risks involved in the active use of DER. In addition, the dissertation introduces an analysis of the economic potential of DER control actions in different marketplaces including the day-ahead Elspot market, balancing power market, and the hourly market of Frequency Containment Reserve for Disturbances (FCR-D).

The Dynamic Relationship between Finnish Stock Market and Commodities

Since different stock markets have become more integrated during 2000s, investors need new asset classes in order to gain diversification benefits. Commodities have become popular to invest in and thus it is important to examine whether the investors should use commodities as a part for portfolio diversification. This master’s thesis examines the dynamic relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities. The methodology is based on Vector Autoregressive models (VAR). The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities is examined with Johansen cointegration while short-run relationship is examined with VAR models and Granger causality test. In addition, impulse response test and forecast error variance decomposition are employed to strengthen the results of short-run relationship. The dynamic relationships might change under different market conditions. Thus, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples in order to reveal whether the dynamic relationship varies under different market conditions. The results show that Finnish stock market has stable long-run relationship with industrial metals, indicating that there would not be diversification benefits among the industrial metals. The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and energy commodities is not as stable as the long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and industrial metals. Long-run relationship was found in the full sample period and first sub-sample which indicate less room for diversification. However, the long-run relationship disappeared in the second sub-sample which indicates diversification benefits. Long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and agricultural commodities was not found in the full sample period which indicates diversification benefits between the variables. However, long-run relationship was found from both sub-samples. The best diversification benefits would be achieved if investor invested in precious metals. No long-run relationship was found from either sample. In the full sample period OMX Helsinki had short-run relationship with most of the energy commodities and industrial metals and the causality was mostly running from equities to commodities. During the first sub period the number of short-run relationships and causality shrunk but during the crisis period the number of short-run relationships and causality increased. The most notable result found was unidirectional causality from gold to OMX Helsinki during the crisis period.

The neo-liberal state and the crisis of public service broadcasting in the Anglo-American democracies /

The NeO'liberal State and the Crisis ofPublic Service Broadcasting in the Anglo-American Democracies The purpose ofthis analysis ofthe present condition ofpublic service broadcasting in the Anglo- American democracies was to investigate whether such media can still be regarded as the primarypublic spherefor a dialogue between each nation 's civil society and the State. The motivationfor this thesis was based on a presumption that such fora for public discussion on the central issues of each society have become viewed as less relevant bypoliticians andpolicy-makers and thepublics they were intended to serve in the Anglo-American democracies over thepast two decades. It is speculated that this is the case because ofa beliefthat the post-war consensus between the respective States andpublics that led to the construction of the Keynesian Welfare State and the notion ofpublic service broadcasting has been displaced by an individualistic, neo-liberal, laissez-faire ideology. In other words, broadcasting as a consumer-oriented, commercial commodity has superseded concerns pertaining to the importance ofthe public interest. The methodology employed in this thesis is a comparative analysisfrom a criticalpolitical economy perspective. It was considered appropriate to focus on the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and the\ United States because they comprise the four largest Anglo-American nations with democratic political systems andprimarily market economies. Justificationfor this particular sample is reinforced by thefact that case study countries also share a common socio-political and economic tradition. The evidence assembledfor this thesis consisted almost exclusively ofexisting literature on the subjects ofpublic service broadcasting, global economic andpolitical integration, and the ascendance ofthe 'free-market ' ethos in Western democracies since the late mid- to late-1970s. In essence, this thesis could be considered as a reinterpretation ofthe existing literature relevant to these issues. Several important common features werefound among the political, economic and broadcasting systems of the four case study nations. It is proposed that the prevalence of the neo-liberal world view throughout the political and policy environments of the four countries has undermined the stability and credibility of each nation 's national public service broadcasting organization, although with varying intensity and effect,. Deregulation ofeach nation 's broadcasting system and the supremacy ofthe notion of 'consumer sovereignty' have marginalized the view of broadcasting on any basis other than strictly economic criteria in thefour case study countries. This thesis concludes that,for a reconstruction ofa trulyparticipatory anddemocraticpublicsphere to be realized in the present as well as thefuture, a reassessment ofthe conventional concept ofthe 'public sphere ' is necessary. Therefore, it is recommended that thefocus ofpolicy-makers in each Anglo-American democracy be redirectedfrom that which conceived ofan all-encompassing, large, state-ownedand operated public broadcasting service toward a view which considers alternativeforms ofpublic communication, such as local community and ethnic broadcasting operations, that are likely to be more responsive to the needs of the increasingly diverse and heterogeneous populations that comprise the modem Anglo-American democracies. The traditional conception of public broadcasters must change in accordance with its contemporary environment if the fundamental principles of the public sphere and public service broadcasting are to be realized.

National energy policies of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada in the 1970s and 1980s: are economic and/or environmental concerns responsible for change?

The thesis presents a comparison of the national energy policies of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada from 1973 until the late 1980s. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether economic and/or environmental concerns were responsible for changes in the· West-German and Canadian national energy policies. Furthermore, the feasibility of implementing a soft energy path in West-Germany and Canada is examined. For better comprehension of the policy-making process and implemented changes in the national energy policies of the two states, the West-German and Canadian parliamentary systems and the political cultures were compared. For the analysis, several events with international impact were taken as guidelines. Furthermore, based on statistical data, the West-German and Canadian energy production and consumption were analyzed. With reference to these results the degree of the de facto changes in the national energy policies were analyzed. In addition, the thesis discusses the possibilities which a soft energy path offers to both national governments to renounce themselves from the dependencies on a few energy resources. The thesis reveals that changes in the West-German and Canadian national energy policies, in their energy production and consumption are correlated to various world events. In particular, governmental reponses security of energy supply by the two international oil crises of 1973 and 1979/1980 demonstrate that changes in the West-German and Canadian national energy policies were implemented in reaction to economic concerns than environmental ones. With the policies "away from oil" and "off oil", the West-German and Canadian government implemented the i i substitution of oil through various diverse energy supply resources. However, energy savings concepts and policies were initiated through the first oil crisis in 1973. The world recessions in 1975 and 1982 had no 'profound impacts on the agenda of West-German and Canadian energy policies. As a consequence of the stagnation or the negative growth of the world economic market, changes in their energy production and consumption can be perceived. However, the West-German and Canadian energy production and consumption intensified with the augmentation of the world economy. During the period of study, environmental concerns were taken into account in the energy policy agendas of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada but they were not of primary concern. wi thin the decade of. the 1980s notably more environmental considerations were taken into account in the energy policies of the two states. The two nuclear reactor accidents in 1979 and 1986 sharpened to various degrees West-German and Canadian public discourse of present energy supply mix and attitude towards energy production and consumption. The statistical data reflects yet no changes in the energy policies in regard to the position of nuclear power. However, in the next several years possible changes can be observed through statistical data, because the planning, the construction and possible phase out of nuclear power requires several years. Finally, the thesis reveals that the implementation of a soft energy path requires profound changes in the consumer behaviour. As several studies indicate, a soft energy path is technological and economically feasible for the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada, its implementation remains to be a political decision.

Master Plan for Renewable Energy based Electricity Generation in The Gambia

The principal objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for the formulation of a master plan for renewable energy based electricity generation in The Gambia, Africa. Such a master plan aims to develop and promote renewable sources of energy as an alternative to conventional forms of energy for generating electricity in the country. A tailor-made methodology for the preparation of a 20-year renewable energy master plan focussed on electricity generation is proposed in order to be followed and verified throughout the present dissertation, as it is applied for The Gambia. The main input data for the proposed master plan are (i) energy demand analysis and forecast over 20 years and (ii) resource assessment for different renewable energy alternatives including their related power supply options. The energy demand forecast is based on a mix between Top-Down and Bottom-Up methodologies. The results are important data for future requirements of (primary) energy sources. The electricity forecast is separated in projections at sent-out level and at end-user level. On the supply side, Solar, Wind and Biomass, as sources of energy, are investigated in terms of technical potential and economic benefits for The Gambia. Other criteria i.e. environmental and social are not considered in the evaluation. Diverse supply options are proposed and technically designed based on the assessed renewable energy potential. This process includes the evaluation of the different available conversion technologies and finalizes with the dimensioning of power supply solutions, taking into consideration technologies which are applicable and appropriate under the special conditions of The Gambia. The balance of these two input data (demand and supply) gives a quantitative indication of the substitution potential of renewable energy generation alternatives in primarily fossil-fuel-based electricity generation systems, as well as fuel savings due to the deployment of renewable resources. Afterwards, the identified renewable energy supply options are ranked according to the outcomes of an economic analysis. Based on this ranking, and other considerations, a 20-year investment plan, broken down into five-year investment periods, is prepared and consists of individual renewable energy projects for electricity generation. These projects included basically on-grid renewable energy applications. Finally, a priority project from the master plan portfolio is selected for further deeper analysis. Since solar PV is the most relevant proposed technology, a PV power plant integrated to the fossil-fuel powered main electrical system in The Gambia is considered as priority project. This project is analysed by economic competitiveness under the current conditions in addition to sensitivity analysis with regard to oil and new-technology market conditions in the future.

Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems: Heat Transfer Issues and Trends

Almost 450 nuclear power plants are currently operating throughout the world and supplying about 17% of the world’s electricity. These plants perform safely, reliably, and have no free-release of byproducts to the environment. Given the current rate of growth in electricity demand and the ever growing concerns for the environment, the US consumer will favor energy sources that can satisfy the need for electricity and other energy-intensive products (1) on a sustainable basis with minimal environmental impact, (2) with enhanced reliability and safety and (3) competitive economics. Given that advances are made to fully apply the potential benefits of nuclear energy systems, the next generation of nuclear systems can provide a vital part of a long-term, diversified energy supply. The Department of Energy has begun research on such a new generation of nuclear energy systems that can be made available to the market by 2030 or earlier, and that can offer significant advances toward these challenging goals [1]. These future nuclear power systems will require advances in materials, reactor physics as well as heat transfer to realize their full potential. In this paper, a summary of these advanced nuclear power systems is presented along with a short synopsis of the important heat transfer issues. Given the nature of research and the dynamics of these conceptual designs, key aspects of the physics will be provided, with details left for the presentation.

Juan Valdez in the coffe market of France

El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar un marco organizacional en profundidad de las operaciones de Juan Valdez y sus posibilidades de incursionar en el mercado Francés. El Análisis se presenta en base a una investigación de mercados que tiene como referencia las tendencias de consumo, más exactamente hacía bebidas con alto contenido de cafeína, (Bebidas energizantes, deportivas, café etc.). Igualmente se analizan los socios estratégicos con más fuerza de realizar alianzas con la empresa colombiana, sus posibilidades financieras, así como su experiencia y conocimiento de su mercado local, y la similitud de procesos o cultura organizacional. La investigación de la propuesta nos lleva a generar una aplicación y conocimiento más a fondo de aspectos teóricos relacionados con el estudio del consumidor, la diversidad cultural y su influencia en el momento de realizar estrategias de mercadeo, el concepto de red y complejidad, así como aspectos teóricos relacionados con la organización y desafíos de una empresa al optar el camino de la internacionalización.

Revisión y análisis de la estructura de costos del transporte terrestre de crudo en Colombia - Pacific Rubiales Energy 2012

Se espera que la producción de petróleo en Colombia supere para 2015 el millón de barriles por día. Sin embargo, a 2012, tres años antes de lo esperado, nos acercamos a la meta produciendo cerca de 900kbpd. Este progresivo crecimiento indica que es urgente fortalecer la infraestructura de transporte para crudo en el país, apoyándose en alternativas secundarias como el transporte de crudo por carrotanque para alivianar el sistema, siendo esta modalidad una “válvula de escape” para las petroleras. Consientes de los retos que esto implica, es necesario encontrar una estructura de costos óptima que permita fijar fletes razonables y competitivos en el mercado de transporte de crudo, sabiendo que un flete de estas características f ideliza y alinea a los proveedores (en este caso las empresas transportadoras prestadoras del servicio), a buscar el mismo objetivo: crecimiento. De esta forma Pacific Rubiales, la segunda petrolera con mayor presencia en el país podrá abrazar su operación, estableciendo no solo una sólida estrategia de evacuación del crudo por los oleoductos, sino a su vez un sistema efectivo de transporte por tierra, donde todos los involucrados en la cadena de valor se encuentren altamente fidelizados y satisfechos con las condiciones de operación que brinde la empresa; Traduciéndolo en pocas palabras, a un esquema con una operación segura, confiable, rentable y donde todos ganan. Es importante resaltar que la estructura actual para la definición de fletes, planteada por el gobierno a través del Software Sice, no se ajusta a la operación de petroleras como Pacific Rubiales, debido a las mismas características de la operación (ubicación de campos) y, a variables fijas en el sistema de información como: el real consumo y rendimiento del combustible en las rutas establecidas y, los costos de mantenimiento.

Shale Gas and the EU Internal Gas Market: Beyond the Hype and Hysteria. CEPS Working Document No. 369, September 2012

This paper analyses the interplay between shale gas and the EU internal gas market. Drawing on data presented in the 2012 International Energy Agency’s report on unconventional gas and additional scenario analyses performed by the Joint Research Centre, the paper is based on the assumption that shale gas will not fundamentally change the EU’s dependence on foreign gas supplies. It argues that attention should be shifted away from hyping shale gas to completing the internal gas market. Two main reasons are given for this. First, the internal gas market is needed to enable shale gas development in countries where there is political support for shale gas extraction. And second, a well-functioning internal gas market would, arguably, contribute much more to Europe’s security of supply than domestic shale gas exploitation. This has important implications for the shale gas industry. As it is hard to see how subsidies or exemptions from environmental legislation could be justified, shale gas development in Europe will only go ahead if it proves to be both economically and environmentally viable. It is thus up to the energy industry to demonstrate that this is the case.

Post-neoliberal electricity market ‘re-reforms’ in Argentina: Diverging from market prescriptions?

This paper focuses upon the policy and institutional change that has taken place within the Argentine electricity market since the country’s economic and social crisis of 2001/2. As one of the first less developed countries (LDCs) to liberalise and privatise its electricity industry, Argentina has since moved away from the orthodox market model after consumer prices were frozen by the Government in early 2002 when the national currency was devalued by 70%. Although its reforms were widely praised during the 1990s, the electricity market has undergone a number of interventions, ostensibly to keep consumer prices low and to avert the much-discussed energy ‘crisis’ caused by a dearth of new investment combined with rising demand levels. This paper explores how the economic crisis and its consequences have both enabled and legitimised these policy and institutional amendments, while drawing upon the specifics of the post-neoliberal market ‘re-reforms’ to consider the extent to which the Government appears to be moving away from market-based prescriptions. In addition, this paper contributes to sector-specific understandings of how, despite these changes, neoliberal ideas and assumptions continue to dominate Argentine public policy well beyond the postcrisis era.

An investigation of the existing situation and trends in building energy efficiency management in China

According to the Chinese State Council's "Building Energy Efficiency Management Ordinance", a large-scale investigation of energy efficiency (EE) in buildings in contemporary China has been carried out in 22 provincial capitals and major cities in China. The aim of this project is to provide reliable information for drawing up the "Decision on reinforcing building energy efficiency" by the Ministry of Construction of China. The surveyed organizations include government departments, research institutions, property developers, design institutions, construction companies, construction consultancy services companies, facility management departments, financial institutions and those which relate to the business of building energy efficiency. In addition, representatives of the media and residents were also involved. A detailed analysis of the results of the investigation concerning aspects of the cur-rent situation and trends in building energy consumption, energy efficiency strategy and the implementation of energy efficiency measures has been conducted. The investigation supplies essential information to formulate the market entrance policy for new buildings and the refurbishment policy for existing buildings to encourage the development of energy efficient technology.

The impact of energy performance certificates on the rental and capital values of commercial property assets: some preliminary evidence from the UK

This paper focuses on the effect of energy performance ratings on the capital values, rental values and equivalent yields of UK commercial property assets. Of which a small number are also BREEAM rated, the study is based upon 708 commercial property assets held in the IPD UK Universe drawn from across all PAS segments. Incorporating a range of controls such as unexpired lease term, vacancy rate and tenant credit risk, hedonic regression procedures are used to estimate the effect of EPC rating. The study finds no evidence of a strong relationship between environmental and/or energy performance and rental and capital value. Bearing in mind the small number of BREEAM rated assets, there was a small but statistically significant effect on equivalent yield only. Similarly, there was no evidence that the EPC rating had any effect on Market Rent or Market Value with only minor effects of EPC ratings on equivalent yields. The preliminary conclusion is that energy labelling is not yet having the effects on Market Values and Market Rents that provide incentives for market participants to improve the energy efficiency of their commercial real estate assets.