Quality of Learners' Time and Learning Performance Beyond Quantitative Time-on-Task

Peer-reviewed

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Improving the molecular diagnosis of Chlamydia psittaci and Chlamydia abortus infection with a species-specific duplex real-time PCR.

Chlamydia psittaci and Chlamydia abortus are closely related intracellular bacteria exhibiting different tissue tropism that may cause severe but distinct infection in humans. C. psittaci causes psittacosis, a respiratory zoonotic infection transmitted by birds. C. abortus is an abortigenic agent in small ruminants, which can also colonize the human placenta and lead to foetal death and miscarriage. Infections caused by C. psittaci and C. abortus are underestimated mainly due to diagnosis difficulties resulting from their strict intracellular growth. We developed a duplex real-time PCR to detect and distinguish these two bacteria in clinical samples. The first PCR (PCR1) targeted a sequence of the 16S-23S rRNA operon allowing the detection of both C. psittaci and C. abortus. The second PCR (PCR2) targeted the coding DNA sequence CPSIT_0607 unique to C. psittaci. The two PCRs showed 100 % detection for ≥ 10 DNA copies per reaction (1000 copies ml- 1). Using a set of 120 samples, including bacterial reference strains, clinical specimens and infected cell culture material, we monitored 100 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity for the detection of C. psittaci and C. abortus for PCR1. When PCR1 was positive, PCR2 could discriminate C. psittaci from C. abortus with a positive predictive value of 100 % and a negative predictive value of 88 %. In conclusion, this new duplex PCR represents a low-cost and time-saving method with high-throughput potential, expected to improve the routine diagnosis of psittacosis and pregnancy complication in large-scale screening programs and also during outbreaks.

Fronts with continuous waiting-time distributions: Theory and application to virus infections

We generalize to arbitrary waiting-time distributions some results which were previously derived for discrete distributions. We show that for any two waiting-time distributions with the same mean delay time, that with higher dispersion will lead to a faster front. Experimental data on the speed of virus infections in a plaque are correctly explained by the theoretical predictions using a Gaussian delay-time distribution, which is more realistic for this system than the Dirac delta distribution considered previously [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett.89, 178101 (2002)]

Analysis of Patterns in Electricity Spot Market Time Series

Due to its non-storability, electricity must be produced at the same time that it is consumed, as a result prices are determined on an hourly basis and thus analysis becomes more challenging. Moreover, the seasonal fluctuations in demand and supply lead to a seasonal behavior of electricity spot prices. The purpose of this thesis is to seek and remove all causal effects from electricity spot prices and remain with pure prices for modeling purposes. To achieve this we use Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) for the visualization and the exploration of the data set and Time Series Decomposition method to estimate and extract the deterministic components from the series. To obtain the target series we use regression based on the background variables (water reservoir and temperature). The result obtained is three price series (for Sweden, Norway and System prices) with no apparent pattern.

Real-time Musical Pair Improvisation on Mobile Devices

This thesis discusses the design and implementation of a real-time musical pair improvisation scenario for mobile devices. In the scenario transferring musical information over a network connection was required. The suitability of available wireless communication technologies was evaluated and communication was analyzed and designed on multiple layers of TCP/IP protocol stack. Also an application layer protocol was designed and implemented for the scenario. The implementation was integrated into a mobile musical software for children using available software components and libraries although the used platform lead to hardware and software constraints. Software limitations were taken into account in design. The results show that real-time musical improvisation can be implemented with wireless communication and mobile technology. The results also show that link layer had the most significant effect on real-time communication in the scenario.

Ion selective electrodes for determination of low and ultra low concentrations of lead (II) in natural waters

Att övervaka förekomsten av giftiga komponenter i naturliga vattendrag är nödvändigt för människans välmående. Eftersom halten av föroreningar i naturens ekosystem bör hållas möjligast låg, pågår en ständig jakt efter kemiska analysmetoder med allt lägre detektionsgränser. I dagens läge görs miljöanalyser med dyr och sofistikerad instrumentering som kräver mycket underhåll. Jonselektiva elektroder har flera goda egenskaper som t.ex. bärbarhet, låg energiförbrukning, och dessutom är de relativt kostnadseffektiva. Att använda jonselektiva elektroder vid miljöanalyser är möjligt om deras känslighetsområde kan utvidgas genom att sänka deras detektionsgränser. För att sänka detektionsgränsen för Pb(II)-selektiva elektroder undersöktes olika typer av jonselektiva membran som baserades på polyakrylat-kopolymerer, PVC och PbS/Ag2S. Fast-fas elektroder med membran av PbS/Ag2S är i allmänhet enklare och mer robusta än konventionella elektroder vid spårämnesanalys av joniska föroreningar. Fast-fas elektrodernas detektionsgräns sänktes i detta arbete med en nyutvecklad galvanostatisk polariseringsmetod och de kunde sedan framgångsrikt användas för kvantitativa bestämningar av bly(II)-halter i miljöprov som hade samlats in i den finska skärgården nära tidigare industriområden. Analysresultaten som erhölls med jonselektiva elektroder bekräftades med andra analytiska metoder. Att sänka detektionsgränsen m.hj.a. den nyutvecklade polariseringsmetoden möjliggör bestämning av låga och ultra-låga blyhalter som inte kunde nås med klassisk potentiometri. Den verkliga fördelen med att använda dessa blyselektiva elektroder är möjligheten att utföra mätningar i obehandlade miljöprov trots närvaron av fasta partiklar vilket inte är möjligt att göra med andra analysmetoder. Jag väntar mig att den nyutvecklade polariseringsmetoden kommer att sätta en trend i spårämnesanalys med jonselektiva elektroder.

Antidepressant-like effect of lead in adult mice

It has been reported that lead can cause behavioral impairment by inhibiting the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor complex. MK-801, a noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist, exhibits an antidepressant-like action in the forced swimming test. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether subacute lead exposure in adult male Swiss mice weighing 30-35 g causes an antidepressant-like action in a forced swimming test. Mice were injected intraperitoneally (ip) with 10 mg/kg lead acetate or saline daily for 7 consecutive days. Twenty-four hours after the last treatment, the saline and lead-treated mice received an injection of MK-801 (0.01 mg/kg, ip) or saline and were tested in forced swimming and in open-field tests. Immobility time was similarly reduced in the saline-MK-801, Pb-saline and Pb-MK-801 groups compared to the saline-saline group (mean ± SEM; 197.3 ± 18.5, 193.5 ± 15.8, 191.3 ± 12.3 and 264.0 ± 14.4 s, respectively; N = 9). These data indicate that lead may exert its effect on the forced swimming test by directly or indirectly inhibiting the NMDA receptor complex. Lead treatment caused no deficit in memory of habituation and did not affect locomotor activity in an open-field (N = 14). However, mice that received MK-801 after lead exhibited a deficit in habituation (22% reduction in rearing responses between session 3 and 1; N = 14) as compared to control (41% reduction in rearing responses; N = 15), further suggesting that lead may have affected the NMDA receptor activity. Forced-swim immobility in a basin in two daily consecutive sessions was also significantly decreased by lead exposure (mean ± SEM; day 1 = 10.6 ± 3.2, day 2 = 19.6 ± 3.6; N = 16) as compared to control (day 1 = 18.4 ± 3.8, day 2 = 34.0 ± 3.7; N = 17), whereas the number of crossings was not affected by lead treatment, further indicating a specific antidepressant-like action of lead.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Toxic effects of mercury, lead and gadolinium on vascular reactivity

Heavy metals have been used in a wide variety of human activities that have significantly increased both professional and environmental exposure. Unfortunately, disasters have highlighted the toxic effects of metals on different organs and systems. Over the last 50 years, the adverse effects of chronic lead, mercury and gadolinium exposure have been underscored. Mercury and lead induce hypertension in humans and animals, affecting endothelial function in addition to their other effects. Increased cardiovascular risk after exposure to metals has been reported, but the underlying mechanisms, mainly for short periods of time and at low concentrations, have not been well explored. The presence of other metals such as gadolinium has raised concerns about contrast-induced nephropathy and, interestingly, despite this negative action, gadolinium has not been defined as a toxic agent. The main actions of these metals, demonstrated in animal and human studies, are an increase of free radical production and oxidative stress and stimulation of angiotensin I-converting enzyme activity, among others. Increased vascular reactivity, highlighted in the present review, resulting from these actions might be an important mechanism underlying increased cardiovascular risk. Finally, the results described in this review suggest that mercury, lead and gadolinium, even at low doses or concentrations, affect vascular reactivity. Acting via the endothelium, by continuous exposure followed by their absorption, they can increase the production of free radicals and of angiotensin II, representing a hazard for cardiovascular function. In addition, the actual reference values, considered to pose no risk, need to be reduced.

Acute exposure to lead increases myocardial contractility independent of hypertension development

We studied the effects of the acute administration of small doses of lead over time on hemodynamic parameters in anesthetized rats to determine if myocardial contractility changes are dependent or not on the development of hypertension. Male Wistar rats received 320 µg/kg lead acetateiv once, and their hemodynamic parameters were measured for 2 h. Cardiac contractility was evaluated in vitro using left ventricular papillary muscles as were Na+,K+-ATPase and myosin Ca2+-ATPase activities. Lead increased left- (control: 112 ± 3.7 vs lead: 129 ± 3.2 mmHg) and right-ventricular systolic pressures (control: 28 ± 1.2vs lead: 34 ± 1.2 mmHg) significantly without modifying heart rate. Papillary muscles were exposed to 8 µM lead acetate and evaluated 60 min later. Isometric contractions increased (control: 0.546 ± 0.07 vs lead: 0.608 ± 0.06 g/mg) and time to peak tension decreased (control: 268 ± 13vs lead: 227 ± 5.58 ms), but relaxation time was unchanged. Post-pause potentiation was similar between groups (n = 6 per group), suggesting no change in sarcoplasmic reticulum activity, evaluated indirectly by this protocol. After 1-h exposure to lead acetate, the papillary muscles became hyperactive in response to a β-adrenergic agonist (10 µM isoproterenol). In addition, post-rest contractions decreased, suggesting a reduction in sarcolemmal calcium influx. The heart samples treated with 8 µM lead acetate presented increased Na+,K+-ATPase (approximately 140%, P < 0.05 for control vs lead) and myosin ATPase (approximately 30%, P < 0.05 for control vs lead) activity. Our results indicated that acute exposure to low lead concentrations produces direct positive inotropic and lusitropic effects on myocardial contractility and increases the right and left ventricular systolic pressure, thus potentially contributing to the early development of hypertension.

Influence of secondary packing on the freezing time of chiken meat in air blast freezing tunnels

Freezing of poultry cuts in continuous convective air blast tunnels is normally performed with the products protected by Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) as a primary packaging and using Corrugated Cardboard Boxes (CCB) as secondary packaging. The objective of this work was to investigate the influence of these secondary packaging on the freezing of poultry cuts in continuous convective air blast tunnels. The study was performed by replacing CCB with Perforated Metal Boxes (PMB) in order to remove the packaging thermal resistance. The assays, performed in a industrial plant, demonstrated that CCB used commercially for meat freezing have a high heat transfer resistance. Their replacement with PMB can lead to shorter freezing times and spatially homogeneous freezing. Reductions of up to 45% in the freezing times were observed using PMB. The plateau of the temperature curve, related to the freezing time of free water, was significantly reduced using PMB, which is accepted to lead to better product quality after thawing. As the products were protected by the LDPE films as primary packaging, their appearance were not affected. The results presented in this work indicate that replacing CBB with PMB can be an excellent alternative to reduce freezing time and improve freezing homogeneity in industrial air blast tunnels, which could also be applied to other products.

Limited sampling strategies for estimation of cyclosporine exposure in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients : methodological improvement and introduction of sampling time deviation analysis.

Le suivi thérapeutique est recommandé pour l’ajustement de la dose des agents immunosuppresseurs. La pertinence de l’utilisation de la surface sous la courbe (SSC) comme biomarqueur dans l’exercice du suivi thérapeutique de la cyclosporine (CsA) dans la transplantation des cellules souches hématopoïétiques est soutenue par un nombre croissant d’études. Cependant, pour des raisons intrinsèques à la méthode de calcul de la SSC, son utilisation en milieu clinique n’est pas pratique. Les stratégies d’échantillonnage limitées, basées sur des approches de régression (R-LSS) ou des approches Bayésiennes (B-LSS), représentent des alternatives pratiques pour une estimation satisfaisante de la SSC. Cependant, pour une application efficace de ces méthodologies, leur conception doit accommoder la réalité clinique, notamment en requérant un nombre minimal de concentrations échelonnées sur une courte durée d’échantillonnage. De plus, une attention particulière devrait être accordée à assurer leur développement et validation adéquates. Il est aussi important de mentionner que l’irrégularité dans le temps de la collecte des échantillons sanguins peut avoir un impact non-négligeable sur la performance prédictive des R-LSS. Or, à ce jour, cet impact n’a fait l’objet d’aucune étude. Cette thèse de doctorat se penche sur ces problématiques afin de permettre une estimation précise et pratique de la SSC. Ces études ont été effectuées dans le cadre de l’utilisation de la CsA chez des patients pédiatriques ayant subi une greffe de cellules souches hématopoïétiques. D’abord, des approches de régression multiple ainsi que d’analyse pharmacocinétique de population (Pop-PK) ont été utilisées de façon constructive afin de développer et de valider adéquatement des LSS. Ensuite, plusieurs modèles Pop-PK ont été évalués, tout en gardant à l’esprit leur utilisation prévue dans le contexte de l’estimation de la SSC. Aussi, la performance des B-LSS ciblant différentes versions de SSC a également été étudiée. Enfin, l’impact des écarts entre les temps d’échantillonnage sanguins réels et les temps nominaux planifiés, sur la performance de prédiction des R-LSS a été quantifié en utilisant une approche de simulation qui considère des scénarios diversifiés et réalistes représentant des erreurs potentielles dans la cédule des échantillons sanguins. Ainsi, cette étude a d’abord conduit au développement de R-LSS et B-LSS ayant une performance clinique satisfaisante, et qui sont pratiques puisqu’elles impliquent 4 points d’échantillonnage ou moins obtenus dans les 4 heures post-dose. Une fois l’analyse Pop-PK effectuée, un modèle structural à deux compartiments avec un temps de délai a été retenu. Cependant, le modèle final - notamment avec covariables - n’a pas amélioré la performance des B-LSS comparativement aux modèles structuraux (sans covariables). En outre, nous avons démontré que les B-LSS exhibent une meilleure performance pour la SSC dérivée des concentrations simulées qui excluent les erreurs résiduelles, que nous avons nommée « underlying AUC », comparée à la SSC observée qui est directement calculée à partir des concentrations mesurées. Enfin, nos résultats ont prouvé que l’irrégularité des temps de la collecte des échantillons sanguins a un impact important sur la performance prédictive des R-LSS; cet impact est en fonction du nombre des échantillons requis, mais encore davantage en fonction de la durée du processus d’échantillonnage impliqué. Nous avons aussi mis en évidence que les erreurs d’échantillonnage commises aux moments où la concentration change rapidement sont celles qui affectent le plus le pouvoir prédictif des R-LSS. Plus intéressant, nous avons mis en exergue que même si différentes R-LSS peuvent avoir des performances similaires lorsque basées sur des temps nominaux, leurs tolérances aux erreurs des temps d’échantillonnage peuvent largement différer. En fait, une considération adéquate de l'impact de ces erreurs peut conduire à une sélection et une utilisation plus fiables des R-LSS. Par une investigation approfondie de différents aspects sous-jacents aux stratégies d’échantillonnages limités, cette thèse a pu fournir des améliorations méthodologiques notables, et proposer de nouvelles voies pour assurer leur utilisation de façon fiable et informée, tout en favorisant leur adéquation à la pratique clinique.

Inference for nonparametric high-frequency estimators with an application to time variation in betas

We consider the problem of conducting inference on nonparametric high-frequency estimators without knowing their asymptotic variances. We prove that a multivariate subsampling method achieves this goal under general conditions that were not previously available in the literature. We suggest a procedure for a data-driven choice of the bandwidth parameters. Our simulation study indicates that the subsampling method is much more robust than the plug-in method based on the asymptotic expression for the variance. Importantly, the subsampling method reliably estimates the variability of the Two Scale estimator even when its parameters are chosen to minimize the finite sample Mean Squared Error; in contrast, the plugin estimator substantially underestimates the sampling uncertainty. By construction, the subsampling method delivers estimates of the variance-covariance matrices that are always positive semi-definite. We use the subsampling method to study the dynamics of financial betas of six stocks on the NYSE. We document significant variation in betas within year 2006, and find that tick data captures more variation in betas than the data sampled at moderate frequencies such as every five or twenty minutes. To capture this variation we estimate a simple dynamic model for betas. The variance estimation is also important for the correction of the errors-in-variables bias in such models. We find that the bias corrections are substantial, and that betas are more persistent than the naive estimators would lead one to believe.

An investigation on the preparation and properties of some transparent conducting oxides and lead selenide thin films”

The investigation of physical properties of matter has progressed so much during the last hundred years. Today physics is divided in to a large distinct group of special branches. These branches are distinguished by the particular area studied, method of investigation and so on. An independent and important branch that has developed is the physics ofthin films.Any object in solid or liquid form with one of its dimensions very much smaller than that of the other two may be called a thin film. It is having only one common property, namely, one of their dimensions is very small, though all their physical properties may be different. Thin layers of oil, floating on the surface of water, with their fascinating colours, have attracted men’s curiosity from time immemorial. The earliest application of thin films was the protective coatings in the form of paints. A thin layer of tin has been used from ancient times to protect copper utensils from corrosion. Indium thin films are used in certain applications on account of their good lubricating property. Relay contacts are coated with thin films of rare earth metals in order to prevent burning due to arcing. Hard coatings are also available using diamond like carbon (i-carbon). The basic properties of thin films are of considerable interest because of their potential applications in various fields of science and technology