Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes. The other type of perturbation is designed to account for representativity error in the boundary-layer parametrization. It makes direct changes to the model state and provides a lower bound against which to judge the spread produced by other uncertainties. The Boscastle has genuine skill at scales of approximately 60 km and an ensemble spread which can be estimated to within ∼ 10% with only eight members. Differences between the model-state perturbation and physics modification strategies are discussed, the former being more important for triggering and the latter for subsequent cell development, including the average internal structure of convective cells. Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

Occasional publishers: producing and marketing books in England 1771–1844

Purpose – To investigate the way in which a series of related printing businesses, owned by members of the Gye and Balne families in Bath and London from 1771 to 1844, selected and marketed their titles when they ventured into book printing and publishing. Design/methodology/approach – The basis of this research is extensive archival research analyzing primary sources, mainly the books and ephemera printed by the various firms, supported by information in contemporary newspapers and journals and in biographies of printers and publishers. Findings – The focus of these businesses was not solely on production but that marketing was also considered, and that there was each title was conceived and produced with a particular market in mind. In doing so it provides evidence of relatively advanced marketing strategies in use before 1850 and thus questions the validity of the four-eras model of marketing history. Research limitations/implications – The available primary sources are limited; while a number of books and other printed items have survived there are no extant accounts, correspondence, or other records for any of the firms that were studied. Originality/value – There has been very little research into the way small businesses during this period approached the marketing of their products. This paper is a potential model for further such historical research and also provides an example of how research into specific companies can illuminate the larger history of marketing, potentially changing the way in which we understand the development of consumer society.

The role of type 1 and curli fimbriae of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli in adherence to abiotic surfaces

Biofilm formation on abiotic surfaces may provide a source of microbial contamination and may also enhance microbial environmental survival. The role of fimbrial expression by Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) in biofilm formation is poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the role of STEC type 1 and curli fimbriae in adhesion to and biofilm formation on abiotic surfaces. None of 13 O157:H7 isolates expressed either fimbrial type whereas 11 of 13 and 5 of 13 non-O157 STEC elaborated type 1 fimbriae and curli fimbriae, respectively. Mutants made by allelic exchange of a diarrhoeal non-O157 STEC isolate, O128:H2 (E41509), unable to elaborate type 1 and curli fimbriae were made for adherence and biofilm assays. Elaboration of type 1 fimbriae was necessary for the adhesion to abiotic surfaces whereas curliation was associated with both adherence and subsequent biofilm formation. STEC O157:H7 adhered to thermanox and glass but poorly to polystyrene. Additionally, STEC O157:H7 failed to form biofilms. These data indicate that certain STEC isolates are able to form biofilms and that the elaboration of curli fimbriae may enhance biofilm formation leading to possible long-term survival and a potential source of human infection.

Microbiological, chemical and rheological properties of low fat set yoghurt produced with exopolysaccharide (EPS) producing Bifidobacterium strains.

In this work, the microbiological and physicochemical differences of three types of low fat set yoghurts were studied, as well as the changes taking place during storage at 4 °C for 28 days. The first yoghurt was produced with yoghurt starters and exopolysaccharide (EPS) producing Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis CCUG 52486 (CCUGY), the second with yoghurt starters and Bifidobacterium infantis NCIMB 702205 (NCIMBY) and the third with just yoghurt starters (control yoghurt). No significant differences were observed in terms of cell concentrations; for all three yoghurts, similar final cell concentrations were obtained for the yoghurt starter cultures (~7.5 log cfu g−1) and the Bifidobacterium strains (~7.8 log cfu g−1). Both Bifidobacterium survived well during storage, as in both cases the cell viability decreased by less than 0.5 log cfu g−1after 28 days of storage. A decrease in pH followed by an increase in lactic acid was observed during storage for all three yoghurts, which was mostly attributed to the activity of the yoghurt starter cultures. The two yoghurts with the EPS producing Bifidobacterium strains exhibited lower syneresis than the control yoghurt. The lowest was shown by CCUGY, which also exhibited the highest storage modulus and firmness, and a well defined porous web-like structure in cryo-SEM. Examination of the micro-structure of the yoghurts using cryo-scanning electron microscopy (cryo-SEM) indicated that the above observations were due to the interaction between the EPS and the milk proteins. Overall, the results indicated that the EPS producing Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis CCUG 52486 is the most promising strain, and can be used with yoghurt starter cultures to manufacture low fat set yoghurt with probiotic activities and at the same time enhanced physicochemical and rheological properties.

Proposal of redundant drive wire mechanism for producing motions with high acceleration and high precision

A new wire mechanism called Redundant Drive Wire Mechanism (RDWM) is proposed. The purpose of this paper is to build up the theory of a RDWM with fast motion and fine motion. First, the basic concepts of the proposed mechanism is presented. Second, the vector closure condition for the proposed mechanism is developed. Next, we present the basic equations, propose the basic structure of RDWM with the Internal DOF module, Double Actuation Modules and Precision Modules together with the properties of the mechanism. Finally, we conduct the simulation to show the validity of the RDWM.

An investigation of working memory effects on oral grammatical accuracy and fluency in producing questions in English

This article addresses the question of how far working memory may affect second language (L2) learners' improvement in spoken language during a period of immersion. Research is presented testing the hypothesis that individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity are associated with individual variation in improvements in oral production of questions in English. Thirty-two Chinese adult speakers of English were tested, before and after a year's postgraduate study in the United Kingdom, to measure grammatical accuracy and fluency using a question elicitation task, and to measure WM using a battery of first language (L1) and L2 WM tests. Story recall in L1 (Mandarin) was significantly associated with individuals' improvement in oral grammatical measures (p < .05). However, there was no significant mean improvement across the cohort in grammatical accuracy, although there was for fluency. The findings suggest that WM may aid certain aspects of individuals' L2 oral proficiency during academic immersion through postgraduate study. They also indicate that academic immersion in itself can lead to improvements in oral proficiency, independent of WM capacity, but there is no general guarantee of significant grammatical change. Further research to clarify the opportunities for input and interaction available in academic immersion settings is called for.

Emotions and the habitus: Young people with socio-emotional differences (re)producing social, emotional and cultural capital in family and leisure space-times

In this paper we explore the importance of emotionally inter-dependent relationships to the functioning of embodied social capital and habitus. Drawing upon the experiences of young people with socio-emotional differences, we demonstrate how emotionally inter-dependent and relatively nurturing relationships are integral to the acquisition of social capital and to the co-construction and embodiment of habitus. The young people presented in this paper often had difficulties in forging social relationships and in acquiring symbolic and cultural capital in school spaces. However, we outline how these young people (re)produce and embody alternative kinds of habitus, based on emotionally reciprocal relationships forged through formal and informal leisure activities and familial and fraternal social relationships. These alternative forms of habitus provide sites of subjection, scope for acquiring social and cultural capital and a positive sense of identity in the face of problematic relations and experiences in school spaces.

Competing effects of toxin-producing phytoplankton on overall plankton populations in the Bay of Bengal

The coexistence of a large number of phytoplankton species on a seemingly limited variety of resources is a classical problem in ecology, known as ‘the paradox of the plankton’. Strong fluctuations in species abundance due to the external factors or competitive interactions leading to oscillations, chaos and short-term equilibria have been cited so far to explain multi-species coexistence and biodiversity of phytoplankton. However, none of the explanations has been universally accepted. The qualitative view and statistical analysis of our field data establish two distinct roles of toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP): toxin allelopathy weakens the interspecific competition among phytoplankton groups and the inhibition due to ingestion of toxic substances reduces the abundance of the grazer zooplankton. Structuring the overall plankton population as a combination of nontoxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxic phytoplankton, and zooplankton, here we offer a novel solution to the plankton paradox governed by the activity of TPP. We demonstrate our findings through qualitative analysis of our sample data followed by analysis of a mathematical model.

Evidence of evolving extraintestinal enteroaggregative Escherichia coli ST38 clone

BACKGROUND: Several clones of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)–producing extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) have globally expanded their distribution. ExPEC infections often originate from the patient’s own intestinal flora, although the degree of overlap between diarrheagenic E. coli and ExPEC pathotypes is unclear. Relatively little is known about antimicrobial drug resistance in the most common diarrheagenic E. coli groups, including enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC), and bacterial gastroenteritis is generally managed without use of antimicrobial drugs. APPROACHES: We conducted this study to establish the presence and characteristics of ESBL-producing EAEC in a well-defined collection of ESBL-producing isolates. The isolates were from human and animal sources in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. DNA from 359 ESBL isolates was screened for the presence of the EAEC transport regulator gene (aggR), located on the EAEC plasmid, using a real-time PCR assay and the phylogroup was determined for each positive isolate. A microarray was used to detect ESBL genes, such as blaCTX-M, at the group level, as previously described. The antimicrobial drug susceptibilities of EAEC isolates were determined and virulence factors associated with intestinal and extraintestinal infection and with EAEC were investigated . RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We assigned a virulence score (total number of virulence factor genes detected; maximum possible score 22) and a resistance score (total number of drug classes; maximum score 11) to each isolate. We isolated 11 EAEC from humans. Eight of the EAEC were isolated from urine specimens, and 1 was isolated from a blood culture; 63% belonged to phylogroup D (Table). EAEC ST38, the most common (55%) ST, was significantly associated with extraintestinal sites in the subset of 140 human isolates (Fisher exact test, p<0.0001)

Emergence of Klebsiella pneumoniae carrying the novel extended-spectrum beta-lactamase gene variants bla(SHV-40), bla(TEM-116) and the class 1 integron-associated bla(GES-7) in Brazil

A clinical Klebsiella pneumoniae isolate carrying the extended-spectrum beta-lactamase gene variants bla(SHV-40), bla(TEM-116) and bla(GES-7) was recovered. Cefoxitin and ceftazidime activity was most affected by the presence of these genes and an additional resistance to trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole was observed. The bla(GES-7) gene was found to be inserted into a class 1 integron. These results show the emergence of novel bla(TEM) and bla(SHV) genes in Brazil. Moreover, the presence of class 1 integrons suggests a great potential for dissemination of bla(GES) genes into diverse nosocomial pathogens. Indeed, the bla(GES-7) gene was originally discovered in Enterobacter cloacae in Greece and, to our knowledge, has not been reported elsewhere.

Landscape and farm scale management to enhance biodiversity conservation in the cocoa producing region of southern Bahia, Brazil

In southern Bahia, Brazil, large land areas are used for the production of cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which is predominantly grown under the shade of native trees in an agroforestry system locally known as cabruca. As a dominant forest-like landscape element of the cocoa region, the cabrucas play an important role in the conservation of the region`s biodiversity. The purpose of this review is to provide the scientific basis for an action plan to reconcile cocoa production and biodiversity conservation in southern Bahia. The available research collectively highlights the diversity of responses of different species and biological groups to both the habitat quality of the cabrucas themselves and to the general characteristics of the landscape, such as the relative extent and spatial configuration of different vegetation types within the landscape mosaic. We identify factors that influence directly or indirectly the occurrence of native species in the cabrucas and the wider landscape of the cocoa region and develop recommendations for their conservation management. We show that the current scientific knowledge already provides a good basis for a biodiversity friendly management of the cocoa region of southern Bahia, although more work is needed to refine some management recommendations, especially on shade canopy composition and density, and verify their economic viability. The implementation of our recommendations should be accompanied by appropriate biological and socioeconomic monitoring and the findings should inform a broad program of adaptive management of the cabrucas and the wider cocoa landscape.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli and atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli strains isolated from healthy sheep of different populations in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Aims: Sheep are important carriers of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) in several countries. However, there are a few reports about ovine STEC in American continent. Methods and Results: About 86 E. coli strains previously isolated from 172 healthy sheep from different farms were studied. PCR was used for detection of stx(1), stx(2), eae, ehxA and saa genes and for the identification of intimin subtypes. Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP)-PCR was performed to investigate the variants of stx(1) and stx(2), and the flagellar antigen (fliC) genes in nonmotile isolates. Five isolates were eae(+) and stx(-), and belonged to serotypes O128:H2/beta-intimin (2), O145:H2/gamma, O153:H7/beta and O178:H7/epsilon. Eighty-one STEC isolates were recovered, and the stx genotypes identified were stx(1c)stx(2d-O118) (46.9%), stx(1c) (27.2%), stx(2d-O118) (23.4%), and stx(1c)stx(2dOX3a) (2.5%). Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) revealed 27 profiles among 53 STEC and atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) isolates. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that healthy sheep in Sao Paulo, Brazil, can be carriers of potential human pathogenic STEC and atypical EPEC. Significance and Impact of the Study: As some of the STEC serotypes presently found have been involved with haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS) in other countries, the important role of sheep as sources of STEC infection in our settings should not be disregarded.

Characterisation of anthracyclines from a cosmomycin D-producing species of Streptomyces by collisionally-activated dissociation and ion mobility mass spectrometry

Cultures of cosmomycin D-producing Streptomyces olindensis ICB20 that were propagated for many generations underwent mutations that resulted in production of a range of related anthracyclines by the bacteria. The anthracyclines that retained the two trisaccharide chains of the parent compound were separated by HPLC. Exact mass determination of these compounds revealed that they differed from cosmomycin D (CosD) in that they contained one to three fewer oxygen atoms (loss of hydroxyl groups). Some of the anthracyclines that were separated by HPLC had the same mass. The location from which the hydroxyl groups had been lost relative to CosD (on the aglycone and/or on the sugar residues) was probed by collisionally-activated dissociation using an electrospray ionisation linear quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer. The presence of anthracyclines with the same mass, but different structure, was confirmed using an electrospray ionisation travelling wave ion mobility mass spectrometer.

Aminoacetone, a putative endogenous source of methylglyoxal, causes oxidative stress and death to insulin-producing RINm5f cells

Aminoacetone (AA), triose phosphates, and acetone are putative endogenous sources of potentially cytotoxic and genotoxic methylglyoxal (MG), which has been reported to be augmented in the plasma of diabetic patients. In these patients, accumulation of MG derived from aminoacetone, a threonine and glycine catabolite, is inferred from the observed concomitant endothelial overexpression of circulating semicarbazide-sensitive amine oxidases. These copper-dependent enzymes catalyze the oxidation of primary amines, such as AA and methylamine, by molecular oxygen, to the corresponding aldehydes, NH4+ ion and H2O2. We recently reported that AA aerobic oxidation to MG also takes place immediately upon addition of catalytic amounts of copper and iron ions. Taking into account that (i) MG and H2O2 are reportedly cytotoxic to insulin-producing cell lineages such as RINm5f and that (ii) the metal-catalyzed oxidation of AA is propagated by O-2(center dot-) radical anion, we decided to investigate the possible pro-oxidant action of AA on these cells taken here as a reliable model system for pancreatic beta-cells. Indeed, we show that AA (0.10-5.0 mM) administration to RINm5f cultures induces cell death. Ferrous (50-300 mu M) and Fe3+ ion (100 mu M) addition to the cell cultures had no effect, whereas Cu2+ (5.0-100 mu M) significantly increased cell death. Supplementation of the AA- and Cu2+-containing culture medium with antioxidants, such as catalase (5.0 mu M), superoxide dismutase (SOD, 50 U/mL), and N-acetylcysteine (NAC, 5.0 mM) led to partial protection. mRNA expression of MnSOD, CuZnSOD, glutathione peroxidase, and glutathione reductase, but not of catalase, is higher in cells treated with AA (0.50-1.0 mM) plus Cu2+ ions (10-50 mu M) relative to control cultures. This may imply higher activity of antioxidant enzymes C, in RINm5f AA-treated cells. In addition, we have found that AA (0.50-1.0 mM) Plus Cu2+ (100 mu M) (i) increase RINm5f cytosolic calcium; (ii) promote DNA fragmentation; and (iii) increase the pro-apoptotic (Bax)/antiapoptotic (Bcl-2) ratio at the level of mRNA expression. In conclusion, although both normal and pathological concentrations of AA are probably much lower than those used here, it is tempting to propose that excess AA in diabetic patients may drive oxidative damage and eventually the death of pancreatic beta-cells.