Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

Human capital and regional development

We investigate the determinants of regional development using a newly constructed database of 1569 sub-national regions from 110 countries covering 74 percent of the world s surface and 97 percent of its GDP. We combine the cross-regional analysis of geographic, institutional, cultural, and human capital determinants of regional development with an examination of productivity in several thousand establishments located in these regions. To organize the discussion, we present a new model of regional development that introduces into a standard migration framework elements of both the Lucas (1978) model of the allocation of talent between entrepreneurship and work, and the Lucas (1988) model of human capital externalities. The evidence points to the paramount importance of human capital in accounting for regional differences in development, but also suggests from model estimation and calibration that entrepreneurial inputs and possibly human capital externalities help understand the data.

Book vs. fair value accounting in banking and intertemporal smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Desenvolvimentos estimados de custo amortizado e imparidade, segundo SNCRF - caso prático

O tema do Trabalho de Fim de Curso - “Desenvolvimentos Estimados de Custo Amortizado e Imparidade segundo SNCRF”, insere-se no âmbito da conclusão da Licenciatura em Contabilidade e Administração – Ramo Administração e Controlo Financeiro ministrada pelo ISCEE – Instituto Superior de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais. O trabalho ora apresentado, espelha uma análise sumária das normas internacionais e do novo normativo nacional no que diz respeito aos instrumentos financeiros com foco em tratamento contabilístico dado pelo método de custo amortizado e reconhecimento de perda por imparidade. Foi preparado com base em consulta de bibliografia especializada e normativos estabelecidos no país, pois permitirá ter acesso tanto a conteúdos teóricos como práticos o que implica um estudo mais abrangente de todos os recursos disponíveis. O desenvolvimento da temática foi orientado numa primeira etapa através de pesquisa necessária a construção do referencial teórico centrado por um lado na evolução teórica das normas internacionais sobre os instrumentos financeiros e consequentemente o tratamento dado pela nossa norma. Na segunda etapa, os casos práticos apresentam os principais casos de contabilização dos instrumentos financeiros utilizando o método de custo amortizado, e reconhecimento de imparidade de acordo com o SNCRF, e a conclusão que se chegou é que o custo amortizado implica a utilização do método de taxa de juro efectiva menos qualquer perda por imparidade, sendo que o método de taxa de juro efectiva distribui os pagamentos e recebimentos dos juros ao longo do período do instrumento financeiro aplicando a taxa de juro efectiva ao valor a transportar do activo ou de passivo de cada período, e uma entidade que usa o método de custo amortizado reconhece os activos financeiros e passivos financeiros pelo seu valor líquido no balanço, e à data de cada relato financeiro deve avaliar a imparidade de todos os activos financeiros e reconhecer perdas por imparidade, visto que, a imparidade representa uma redução no valor de um activo financeiro ou seja reflecte a depreciação (perda permanente) do valor de um activo financeiro e verifica quando a quantia recuperável for superior ao seu valor contabilístico.

A portrait of the Spanish accounting community

This study presents a portrait of the Spanish academic accountingcommunity in 1995, based upon a questionnaire circulated to Spanishaccounting academics in 1995 and upon an analysis of authorship andcitations in the main Spanish accounting journals. The approach tothese analyses is grounded in similar studies which have been carriedout in the United States, Spain and elsewhere. but the combination oftechniques used in this study is particularly broad in range.The results of the study are used to describe a range ofcharacteristics of Spanish accounting academics, for example,publications records and length of academic experience. The analysisof publications produces a ranking by institutional affiliation ofthe most significant contributors to current debates on accounting.Citation analysis is used to identify the range and extent ofinternational influences upon the Spanish academic accountingcommunity, and to provide an additional ranking by institutionalaffiliation of the most frequently cited sources A significantfinding was that the nature and extent of international influence hadchanged very little over the ten year period since Spain entered theEuropean Union and started to implement European Directives.Perceptions of journal quality were elicited by questionnaire. Fortyfive journals, Spanish and international are included in a listranked for perceived importance as outlets for publication. and assources of support for teaching and research. The results of thisexercise show that Spanish journals were ranked low relative tojournals published in the United Kingdom and United States.Finally the study examines the extent of purpose upon Spanishaccounting academies to publish, by presenting results of a questionabout criteria for promotion, and also by examining and increasingtendency to publish co-authored work.

Keeping up with the Joneses: An international asset pricing model

We derive an international asset pricing model that assumes local investorshave preferences of the type "keeping up with the Joneses." In aninternational setting investors compare their current wealth with that oftheir peers who live in the same country. In the process of inferring thecountry's average wealth, investors incorporate information from the domesticmarket portfolio. In equilibrium, this gives rise to a multifactor CAPMwhere, together with the world market price of risk, there existscountry-speciffic prices of risk associated with deviations from thecountry's average wealth level. The model performs signifficantly better, interms of explaining cross-section of returns, than the international CAPM.Moreover, the results are robust, both for conditional and unconditionaltests, to the inclusion of currency risk, macroeconomic sources of risk andthe Fama and French HML factor.

The struggle against creative accounting: Is "true and fair view" part of the problem or part of the solution?

Creative accounting is a growing issue of interest in Spain. In this article we argue that the concept true and fair view can limit or promote the use of creative accounting depending upon its interpretation. We review the range of meanings that true and fair view can take at an international level and compare the experience of the United Kingdom with the Australian one by analysing the use of true and fair view to limit creative accounting. Finally, we suggest lines of action to be considered by the Spanish accounting standards-setting institutions.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Multinationals, technology networks and international takeovers

We formulate a knowlegde--based model of direct investment through mergers and acquisitions. M&As are realized to create comparative advantages by exploiting international synergies and appropriating local technology spillovers requiring geographical proximity, but can also represent a strategic response to the presence of a multinational rival. The takeover fee paid tends to increase with the strength of local spillovers which can thus work against multinationalization. Seller's bargaining power increases the takeover fee, but does not influence the investment decision. We characterize losers and winners from multinationalization, and show that foreign investment stimulates research but could result in a synergy trap reducing multinationals' profits.

International capital flows and credit market imperfections: A tale of two frictions

The financial crisis of 2007-08 has underscored the importance of adverse selection in financialmarkets. This friction has been mostly neglected by macroeconomic models of financialimperfections, however, which have focused almost exclusively on the effects of limited pledgeability.In this paper, we fill this gap by developing a standard growth model with adverseselection. Our main results are that, by fostering unproductive investment, adverse selection:(i) leads to an increase in the economy s equilibrium interest rate, and; (ii) it generates a negativewedge between the marginal return to investment and the equilibrium interest rate. Underfinancial integration, we show how this translates into excessive capital inflows and endogenouscycles. We also extend our model to the more general case in which adverse selection and limitedpledgeability coexist. We conclude that both frictions complement one another and show thatlimited pledgeability exacerbates the effects of adverse selection.

International Standardisation and Local Participatory Dynamics : The INTERNORM Project

This paper presents a pilot project (INTERNORM) funded by the University of Lausanne (2010 - 2013) to support the involvement of civil society organisations (CSO) in international standard setting bodies such as the ISO. It analyses how a distinct participatory mechanism can influence the institutional environment of technical diplomacy in which standards are shaped. The project is an attempt to respond to the democratic deficit attested in the field of international standardisation, formally open to civil society participation, but still largely dominated by expert knowledge and market players. Many international standards have direct implications on society as a whole, but CSOs (consumers and environmental associations, trade unions) are largely under-represented in negotiation arenas. The paper draws upon international relations literature on new institutional forms in global governance and studies of participation in science and technology. It argues that there are significant limitations to the rise of civil society participation in such global governance mechanisms. The INTERNORM project has been designed as a platform of knowledge exchange between CSO and academic experts, with earmarked funding and official membership to a national standardisation body. But INTERNORM cannot substitute for a long- established lack of resources in time, money and expertise of CSOs. Despite high entry costs into technical diplomacy, participation thus appears as less a matter of upstream engagement, or of procedure only, than of dedicated means to shift the geometry of actors and the framing of socio-technical change.

[(18)F]FDG-PET Standard Uptake Value as a Metabolic Predictor of Bone Marrow Response to Radiation: Impact on Acute and Late Hematological Toxicity in Cervical Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship between bone marrow (BM) response to radiation and radiation dose by using (18)F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography [(18)F]FDG-PET standard uptake values (SUV) and to correlate these findings with hematological toxicity (HT) in cervical cancer (CC) patients treated with chemoradiation therapy (CRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Seventeen women with a diagnosis of CC were treated with standard doses of CRT. All patients underwent pre- and post-therapy [(18)F]FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT). Hemograms were obtained before and during treatment and 3 months after treatment and at last follow-up. Pelvic bone was autosegmented as total bone marrow (BMTOT). Active bone marrow (BMACT) was contoured based on SUV greater than the mean SUV of BMTOT. The volumes (V) of each region receiving 10, 20, 30, and 40 Gy (V10, V20, V30, and V40, respectively) were calculated. Metabolic volume histograms and voxel SUV map response graphs were created. Relative changes in SUV before and after therapy were calculated by separating SUV voxels into radiation therapy dose ranges of 5 Gy. The relationships among SUV decrease, radiation dose, and HT were investigated using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Mean relative pre-post-therapy SUV reductions in BMTOT and BMACT were 27% and 38%, respectively. BMACT volume was significantly reduced after treatment (from 651.5 to 231.6 cm(3), respectively; P<.0001). BMACT V30 was significantly correlated with a reduction in BMACT SUV (R(2), 0.14; P<.001). The reduction in BMACT SUV significantly correlated with reduction in white blood cells (WBCs) at 3 months post-treatment (R(2), 0.27; P=.04) and at last follow-up (R(2), 0.25; P=.04). Different dosimetric parameters of BMTOT and BMACT correlated with long-term hematological outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The volumes of BMTOT and BMACT that are exposed to even relatively low doses of radiation are associated with a decrease in WBC counts following CRT. The loss in proliferative BM SUV uptake translates into low WBC nadirs after treatment. These results suggest the potential of intensity modulated radiation therapy to spare BMTOT to reduce long-term hematological toxicity.

International collaborative proficiency study of Human Papillomavirus type 16 serology.

We performed an international proficiency study of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 serology. A common methodology for serology based on virus-like particle (VLP) ELISA was used by 10 laboratories in 6 continents. The laboratories used the same VLP reference reagent, which was selected as the most stable, sensitive and specific VLP preparation out of VLPs donated from 5 different sources. A blinded proficiency panel consisting of 52 serum samples from women with PCR-verified HPV 16-infection, 11 control serum samples from virginal women and the WHO HPV 16 International Standard (IS) serum were distributed. The mean plus 3 standard deviations of the negative control serum samples was the most generally useful "cut-off" criterion for distinguishing positive and negative samples. Using sensitivity of at least 50% and a specificity of 100% as proficiency criteria, 6/10 laboratories were proficient. In conclusion, an international Standard Operating Procedure for HPV serology, an international reporting system in International Units (IU) and a common "cut-off" criterion have been evaluated in an international HPV serology proficiency study.

Correlation of the IJK Roadmeter to the International Roughness Index, MLR-91-5, 1992

The Iowa Department of Transportation has been determining a present serviceability index (PSI) on the primary highway system since 1968. A CHLOE profilometer has been used as the standard for calibrating the Roadmeters that do the system survey. The current Roadmeter, an IJK Iowa DOT developed unit, is not considered an acceptable Roadmeter for determining the FHWA required International Roughness Index (IRI). Iowa purchased a commercial version of the South Dakota type profile (SD Unit) to obtain IRI. This study was undertaken to correlate the IRI to the IJK Roadmeter and retire the Roadmeter. One hundred forty-seven pavement management sections (IPMS) were tested in June and July 1991 with both units. Correlation coefficients and standard error of estimates were: r' Std. Error PCC pavements 0.81 0.15 Composite pavements 0.71 0.18 ACC pavements 0.77 0.17 The correlation equations developed from this work will allow use of the IRI to predict the IJK Roadmeter response with sufficient accuracy. Trend analysis should also not be affected.

Standard Specifications for Highway and Bridge Construction, 2012

When referenced, the 2012 edition of the Iowa Department of Transportation’s (Iowa DOT) Standard Specifications for Highway and Bridge Construction shall be used for contract work awarded by the Iowa DOT. They may also be incorporated by reference in other contract work on secondary, urban, local systems, or other contract work in which the Iowa DOT has an interest. As modified by the General Supplemental Specifications, these Standard Specifications represent the minimum requirements and may be modified by Supplemental Specifications, Developmental Specifications, and Special Provisions on specific contracts. These Standard Specifications have been written so the Contractor’s responsibilities are indicated by plain language using the Imperative Mood and Active Voice form. Sentences are of the form: Construct isolation joints at all points where driveways meet other walks, curbs, or fixtures in the surface. Ensure finished members are true to detailed dimensions and free from twists, bends, open joints, or other defects resulting from faulty fabrication or defective work. Personnel preparing the JMF shall be Iowa DOT certified in bituminous mix design. The Contracting Authority’s responsibilities are (with some exceptions) indicated by the use of the modal verb “will”. Sentences are of the form: The Engineer will obtain and test density samples for each lot according to Materials I.M. 204. Payment will be the contract unit price for Fabric Reinforcement per square yard (square meter). These standard specifications contain dual units of measure: the United States Standard measure (English units) and the International System of Units (SI or “metric” units). The English units are expressed first then followed by the metric units in parentheses. The measurements expressed in the two systems are not necessarily equal. In some cases the measurements in metric units is a “hard” conversion of the English measurement; i.e. the metric unit has been approximated with a rounded, rationalized metric measurement that is easy to work with and remember. The proposal form will identify whether the work was designed and shall be constructed in English or metric units.