The Australian naturalistic driving study: From beginnings to launch

The Australian Naturalistic Driving Study (ANDS), a ground-breaking study of Australian driver behaviour and performance, was officially launched on April 21st, 2015 at UNSW. The ANDS project will provide a realistic perspective on the causes of vehicle crashes and near miss crash events, along with the roles speeding, distraction and other factors have on such events. A total of 360 volunteer drivers across NSW and Victoria - 180 in NSW and 180 in Victoria - will be monitored by a Data Acquisition System (DAS) recording continuously for 4 months their driving behaviour using a suite of cameras and sensors. Participants’ driving behaviour (e.g. gaze), the behaviour of their vehicle (e.g. speed, lane position) and the behaviour of other road users with whom they interact in normal and safety-critical situations will be recorded. Planning of the ANDS commenced over two years ago in June 2013 when the Multi-Institutional Agreement for a grant supporting the equipment purchase and assembly phase was signed by parties involved in this large scale $4 million study (5 university accident research centres, 3 government regulators, 2 third party insurers and 2 industry partners). The program’s second development phase commenced a year later in June 2014 after a second grant was awarded. This paper presents an insider's view into that two year process leading up to the launch, and outlines issues that arose in the set-up phase of the study and how these were addressed. This information will be useful to other organisations considering setting up an NDS.

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

J.W.Lindt’s Colonial man and Aborigine image from the GRAFTON ALBUM : “On chemistry and optics all does not depend, art must with these in triple union blend”

J.W.Lindt’s Colonial man and Aborigine image from the GRAFTON ALBUM: “On chemistry and optics all does not depend, art must with these in triple union blend” (text from J.W. Lindt’s photographic backing card) In this paper, I follow an argument that Lindt held a position in his particular colonial environment where he was simultaneously both an insider and an outsider and that such a position may be considered prerequisite in stimulating exchange. A study of the transition of J.W. Lindt in Grafton, N.S.W. in the 1860s from a traveller to a migrant and subsequently to a professional photographer, as well as Lindt’s photographic career, which evolved through strategic action and technical approaches to photography, bears witness to his cultural relativity. One untitled photograph from this period of work constructs a unique commentary of Australian colonial life that illustrates a non-hegemonic position, particularly as it was included in one of the first albums of photographs of Aborigines that Lindt gifted to an illustrious person (in this case the Mayor of Grafton). As in his other studio constructions, props and backdrops were arranged and sitters were positioned with care, but this photograph is the only one in the album that includes a non-Aborigine in a relationship to an Aborigine. An analysis of the props, technical details of the album and the image suggests a reconciliatory aspect that thwarts the predominant attitudes towards Aborigines in the area at that time.

Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

Essays on Earnings Management (summary section only)

There is much literature developing theories when and where earnings management occurs. Among the several possible motives driving earnings management behaviour in firms, this thesis focuses on motives that aim to influence the valuation of the firm. Earnings management that makes the firm look better than it really is may result in disappointment for the single investor and potentially leads to a welfare loss in society when the resource allocation is distorted. A more specific knowledge of the occurrence of earnings management supposedly increases the awareness of the investor and thus leads to better investments and increased welfare. This thesis contributes to the literature by increasing the knowledge as to where and when earnings management is likely to occur. More specifically, essay 1 adds to existing research connecting earnings management to IPOs and increases the knowledge in arguing that the tendency to manage earnings differs between the IPOs. Evidence is found that entrepreneur owned IPOs are more likely to be earnings managers than the institutionally owned ones. Essay 2 considers the reliability of quarterly earnings reports that precedes insider selling binges. The essay contributes by suggesting that earnings management is likely to occur before high insider selling. Essay 3 examines the widely studied phenomenon of income smoothing and investigates if income smoothing can be explained with proxies for information asymmetry. The essay argues that smoothing is more pervasive in private and smaller firms.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

EU-aikakauden ympäristötaisto. Ympäristöjärjestöjen toiminnan eurooppalainen ulottuvuus kiistassa Vuosaaren sataman rakentamisesta

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää mitä kiista Vuosaaren sataman rakentamisesta 1990- ja 2000-luvuilla kertoo eurooppalaisesta kollektiivisesta toiminnasta. Mikä on EU:n suhde ylirajaiseen kollektiiviseen toimintaan, joka syntyy unionin vaikutuksesta? Ympäristöjärjestöt Suomen Luonnonsuojeluliiton johdolla kantelivat satamahankkeesta Euroopan komissiolle ja tekivät vetoomuksen Euroopan parlamentille, koska suunnitellun sataman vieressä sijaitsi alue, joka kuului Natura 2000 –luonnonsuojeluverkostoon. Myös eurooppalaiset kattojärjestöt osallistuivat toimintaan. Aineistona on ympäristöjärjestötoimijoiden ja heidän kanssaan tekemisissä olleiden tahojen haastatteluja, asiakirjoja, sähköpostiviestejä sekä tiedotus- ja lehtimateriaalia. Satamakiistaa tutkitaan yhteiskunnallisten liikkeiden tutkimuksen perinteestä käsin. Kirjallisuudesta keskitytään erityisesti koalitionmuodostukseen, johon osallistuivat ympäristöjärjestöjen lisäksi myös Euroopan parlamentin vihreät, sekä ylirajaisen kollektiivisen toiminnan luonteen käsitteellisempään hahmottamiseen. Tapauksessa sinällään kotimainen konflikti ulkoistettiin viemällä se EU-tasolle. Bumerangi-ilmiössä valtioon yritettiin vaikuttaa EU-instituutioiden kautta. Tämän ulkoistamisen myötä syntyi ylirajainen kampanjakoalitio, joka perustui osin jäsenjärjestö-kattojärjestö-suhteeseen. Koalitiota voidaan vetoomusvaiheessa kuvailla parlamentin vihreiden mukanaolon myötä sisä- ja ulkopiiriläisten koalitioksi (insider-outsider coalition). Toiminnalla oli joitain samoja piirteitä edistämisverkostojen (transnational advocacy networks) kanssa. Syy sekä kansallisten ympäristöjärjestöjen että kattojärjestöjen aktiivisuudelle oli tapauksen oikeudellinen ennakkotapausmerkitys, joten protestikeinojen hyöty olisi ollut vähäinen. Natura pitkälti loi ympäristöjärjestöille merkityksellisen kiistan. Koska haluttiin vaikuttaa lainkäyttöön, itse tapaus oli keino, ja kantelut olivat keinon ominaisuus. Ylipäätään valittamisen mahdollistavan EU-mahdollisuusrakenteen vuoksi järjestöt pystyivät tietyllä tapaa uudelleenpolitisoimaan kansallisesti jo oikeusistuinvaiheeseen siirtyneen kiistan viemällä asian vähemmän oikeudellisille areenoille. Tapauksessa politiikka juridisoitui ja juridiikka myös politisoitui. Kantelujen voidaan kuvata olevan osa eurooppalaista yhteiskuntaa, mutta prosessin edetessä ja vetoomuksen myötä ylirajainen kollektiivinen toiminta vähitellen monipuolistui ja syveni siten, että tapauksesta voidaan hahmottaa myös eurooppalainen kansalaisyhteiskunta.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

Trend analysis in two standard growth models

This paper analyzes the trend processes characterized by two standard growth models using simple econometrics. The first model is the basic neoclassical growth model that postulates a deterministic trend for output. The second model is the Uzawa-Lucas model that postulates a stochastic trend for output. The aim is to understand how the different trend processes for output assumed by these two standard growth models determine the ability of each model to explain the observed trend processes of other macroeconomic variables such as consumption and investment. The results show that the two models reproduce the output trend process. Moreover, the results show that the basic growth model captures properly the consumption trend process, but fails in characterizing the investment trend process. The reverse is true for the Uzawa-Lucas model.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

El componente de selección adversa de la horquilla de precios cotizada: una revisión de los modelos de estimación

[ES] Una de las principales preocupaciones en el área de la microestructura del mercado ha sido la estimación de los componentes no observables de la horquilla de precios a partir de las series de datos que proporcionan los mercados financieros, despertando quizá un mayor interés el de selección adversa por la implicaciones que supone la existencia del mismo. Esto ha provocado el desarrollo de numerosos modelos empíricos que, basándose en las propiedades estadísticas de las series de precios, proporcionan dichas estimaciones. La mayor disponibilidad de datos existentes en los mercados ha permitido el desarrollo en los últimos años de modelos basados en técnicas estadísticas más complejas como son el método generalizado de momentos o la metodología VAR y cuya base de partida es la dinámica de la formación del precio, y, en concreto, cómo la información privada de las transacciones se recoge en los nuevos precios cotizados. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar este último grupo de trabajos, es decir, aquellos modelos de estimación de los componentes de la horquilla basados en la dinámica de la formación de precios que, además de permitir la estimación del componente de selección adversa en series temporales, suponen una herramienta fundamental para analizar el proceso de incorporación de la información a los precios cotizados en los distintos mercados.

La innovación empresarial y el emprendimiento: un análisis empírico

[ES]Este es un Trabajo Fin de Grado interdisciplinar que aúna la Innovación y el Emprendimiento con la Econometría. En la parte teórica, se sintetiza la literatura relacionada con la innovación y el emprendimiento, los tipos y medidas de innovación, los factores que influyen tanto positiva como negativamente en la innovación, y se explica la importancia de innovar en las empresas. Se analizan también las bases de datos sobre innovación disponibles en Internet. Mientras que en la parte empírica, se analiza el impacto del Producto Interior Bruto sobre la actividad emprendedora total y por motivos de necesidad u oportunidad de 67 países a nivel mundial. Los países están divididos en tres tipos, dependiendo de cual es el motor impulsor de su economía: los factores tradicionales de producción, los factores que mejoran su eficiencia y las economías basadas en la sofisticación de sus empresas y la innovación. Así mismo, se analiza la influencia del PIB y otras variables macroeconómicas como el nivel de educación superior, la inversión pública y privada en I+D+i y el número de patentes PCT con el emprendimiento innovador. Para ello, se han teniendo en cuenta los datos aportados en los Informes Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) y Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS) para el año 2012.

Un análisis sobre la financiación colectiva: el micro-mecenazgo

[ES]Este es un Trabajo Fin de Grado interdisciplinar que aúna el Micro-mecenazgo con la Econometría. En la parte teórica, se sintetiza la literatura relacionada con el crowdfunding, los tipos y su funcionamiento, así como los factores que influyen tanto positiva como negativamente en la consecución de los proyectos llevados a cabo por esta práctica. Se analizan también las bases de datos sobre plataformas de crowdfunding disponibles en Internet y se explica la búsqueda realizada para encontrar una muestra adecuada. Mientras que en la parte empírica, se analiza el impacto de los factores elegidos sobre la probabilidad de éxito de los proyectos. Para ello se utilizan modelos econométricos no estudiados anteriormente que se explican y analizan en la parte metodológica del trabajo. De esta forma, se obtienen resultados que ayudan a conocer las características que han de tener los proyectos publicados en las plataformas de crowdfunding para conseguir la financiación exigida. Para ello, se han teniendo en cuenta los datos encontrados en diferentes plataformas de crowdfunding entre el año 2013 y el 2015.

España en la Zona Euro, ¿una buena decisión?

Tras la creación de la CEE y bajo decenas de años de cuestionamiento ideológico, división en zonas económicas y comprobadas debilidades, se llega a la conclusión de que la Unión Europea debe redefinir su existencia mediante la solución de problemas estructurales como la existencia de shocks asimétricos , así como se demuestra la influencia mayor de la demanda exterior en el saldo exportador que del tipo de cambio en el caso español sin subestimar su efecto reequilibrador y su capacidad de generar crecimiento como paliativo para las coyunturas negativas