Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Libyan breast cancer: Health services and biology. Diagnosis delay and prognostic value of DNA pploidy, S-phase fraction, and Ki-67 and Bcl-2 immunohistochemistry

The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnosis delay and its impact on the stage of disease. The study also evaluated a nuclear DNA content, immunohistochemical expression of Ki-67 and bcl-2, and the correlation of these biological features with the clinicopathological features and patient outcome. 200 Libyan women, diagnosed during 2008–2009 were interviewed about the period from the first symptoms to the final histological diagnosis of breast cancer. Also retrospective preclinical and clinical data were collected from medical records on a form (questionnaire) in association with the interview. Tumor material of the patients was collected and nuclear DNA content analysed using DNA image cytometry. The expression of Ki-67 and bcl-2 were assessed using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The studies described in this thesis show that the median of diagnosis time for women with breast cancer was 7.5 months and 56% of patients were diagnosed within a period longer than 6 months. Inappropriate reassurance that the lump was benign was an important reason for prolongation of the diagnosis time. Diagnosis delay was also associated with initial breast symptom(s) that did not include a lump, old age, illiteracy, and history of benign fibrocystic disease. The patients who showed diagnosis delay had bigger tumour size (p<0.0001), positive lymph nodes (p<0.0001), and high incidence of late clinical stages (p<0.0001). Biologically, 82.7% of tumors were aneuploid and 17.3% were diploid. The median SPF of tumors was 11% while the median positivity of Ki-67 was 27.5%. High Ki-67 expression was found in 76% of patients, and high SPF values in 56% of patients. Positive bcl-2 expression was found in 62.4% of tumors. 72.2% of the bcl-2 positive samples were ER-positive. Patients who had tumor with DNA aneuploidy, high proliferative activity and negative bcl-2 expression were associated with a high grade of malignancy and short survival. The SPF value is useful cell proliferation marker in assessing prognosis, and the decision cut point of 11% for SPF in the Libyan material was clearly significant (p<0.0001). Bcl-2 is a powerful prognosticator and an independent predictor of breast cancer outcome in the Libyan material (p<0.0001). Libyan breast cancer was investigated in these studies from two different aspects: health services and biology. The results show that diagnosis delay is a very serious problem in Libya and is associated with complex interactions between many factors leading to advanced stages, and potentially to high mortality. Cytometric DNA variables, proliferative markers (Ki-67 and SPF), and oncoprotein bcl-2 negativity reflect the aggressive behavior of Libyan breast cancer and could be used with traditional factors to predict the outcome of individual patients, and to select appropriate therapy.

The Transformation Problem : an Aleternative Solution with an Identical Aggregate Profit Rate in the Labor value and the Monetary Space.

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that, even if Marx's solution to the transformation problem can be modified, his basic conclusions remain valid. the proposed alternative solution which is presented hare is based on the constraint of a common general profit rate in both spaces and a money wage level which will be determined simultaneously with prices.

The Transformation Problem : an Aleternative Solution with an Identical Aggregate Profit Rate in the Labor value and the Monetary Space.

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that, even if Marx's solution to the transformation problem can be modified, his basic conclusions remain valid. the proposed alternative solution which is presented hare is based on the constraint of a common general profit rate in both spaces and a money wage level which will be determined simultaneously with prices.

Initial distribution spread: A density forecasting approach

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as one problem. Forecasting performance can be quantified by some scoring rule. In the case of the logarithmic scoring rule, theoretical arguments and empirical results are presented. It turns out that, if the underlying noise dominates model error, we can diagnose the noise spread.

Well-posed two-point initial-boundary value problems with arbitrary boundary conditions

We study initial-boundary value problems for linear evolution equations of arbitrary spatial order, subject to arbitrary linear boundary conditions and posed on a rectangular 1-space, 1-time domain. We give a new characterisation of the boundary conditions that specify well-posed problems using Fokas' transform method. We also give a sufficient condition guaranteeing that the solution can be represented using a series. The relevant condition, the analyticity at infinity of certain meromorphic functions within particular sectors, is significantly more concrete and easier to test than the previous criterion, based on the existence of admissible functions.

Using traditional heuristic algorithms on an initial genetic algorithm population applied to the transmission expansion planning problem

This paper analyses the impact of choosing good initial populations for genetic algorithms regarding convergence speed and final solution quality. Test problems were taken from complex electricity distribution network expansion planning. Constructive heuristic algorithms were used to generate good initial populations, particularly those used in resolving transmission network expansion planning. The results were compared to those found by a genetic algorithm with random initial populations. The results showed that an efficiently generated initial population led to better solutions being found in less time when applied to low complexity electricity distribution networks and better quality solutions for highly complex networks when compared to a genetic algorithm using random initial populations.

The diagnostic value of Gram stain for initial identification of the etiologic agent of peritonitis in CAPD patients

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of the Gram stain in the initial diagnosis of the etiologic agent of peritonitis in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD). Design: Retrospective study analyzing the sensitivity (S), specificity (SS), positive predictive value (+PV), and negative predictive value (-PV) of the Gram stain relating to the results of cultures in 149 episodes of peritonitis in CAPD. The data were analyzed in two studies. In the first, only the cases with detection of a single agent by Gram stain were taken (Study 1). In the second, only the cases with two agents in Gram stain were evaluated (Study 2). Setting: Dialysis Unit and Laboratory of Microbiology of a tertiary medical center. Patients: Sixty-three patients on regular CAPD who presented one or more episodes of peritonitis from May 1992 to May 1995. Results: The positivity of Gram stain was 93.2% and the sensitivity was 95.7%. The values of S, SS, +PV, and -PV were respectively: 94.9%, 53.5%, 68.3%, and 90.9% for gram-positive cocci and 83.3%, 98.8%, 95.2%, and 95.6% for gram-negative bacilli. The association of gram-positive cocci plus gram-negative bacilli were predictive of growth of both in 6.8%, growth of gram-positive cocci in 13.7%, and growth of gram-negative bacilli in 72.5%. Conclusions: The Gram stain is a method of great value in the initial diagnosis of the etiologic agent of peritonitis in CAPD, especially for gram-negative bacilli.

GRASP with evolutionary path-relinking for the capacitated arc routing problem

The Capacitated Arc Routing Problem (CARP) is a well-known NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem where, given an undirected graph, the objective is to find a minimum cost set of tours servicing a subset of required edges under vehicle capacity constraints. There are numerous applications for the CARP, such as street sweeping, garbage collection, mail delivery, school bus routing, and meter reading. A Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) with Path-Relinking (PR) is proposed and compared with other successful CARP metaheuristics. Some features of this GRASP with PR are (i) reactive parameter tuning, where the parameter value is stochastically selected biased in favor of those values which historically produced the best solutions in average; (ii) a statistical filter, which discard initial solutions if they are unlikely to improve the incumbent best solution; (iii) infeasible local search, where high-quality solutions, though infeasible, are used to explore the feasible/infeasible boundaries of the solution space; (iv) evolutionary PR, a recent trend where the pool of elite solutions is progressively improved by successive relinking of pairs of elite solutions. Computational tests were conducted using a set of 81 instances, and results reveal that the GRASP is very competitive, achieving the best overall deviation from lower bounds and the highest number of best solutions found. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Initial Body Condition, Frame Size and Concentration of Dietary Energy on Carcass Value of Finished Steers

Yearling steers were sorted into four groups based on hip height and fat cover at the start of the finishing period. Each group of sorted steers was fed diets containing 0.59 or 0.64 Mcal NEg per pound of diet. The value of each carcass was determined by use of the Oklahoma State University Boxed Beef Calculator. Sorting to increase hip height decreased the percentage of Choice carcasses and fat cover, increased ribeye area, and had no effect on carcass weight or yield grades 1 and 2. Sorting to decrease initial fat cover decreased carcass weight, carcass fat cover, and percentage of choice carcasses and increased the proportion of yield grades 1 and 2 carcasses. Concentration of energy in the finishing diet had no effect on carcass measurements. Increasing the percentage of yield grades 1 and 2 carcasses did not result in increased economic value of the carcasses when quality grades were lower and when there was a wide spread between Choice and Select carcasses, as occurred in 1996. With less spread between Choice and Select, as in 1997, sorting the cattle to increase yield grades 1 and 2 resulted in increased value, especially for close-trim boxed beef. The results of this study emphasize the importance of knowing how carcasses will grade before selecting a valuebased market for selling cattle.

The Problem with Value-Added Measurement

Measuring student learning through standardized tests is a lot harder than modern education reformers would have you believe.

Quid pro quo:reflections on the value of problem structuring workshops

Attracting clients who are willing to invest in using a problem structuring method (PSM) can be particularly difficult for the emerging generation of modellers. There are many reasons for this, not least that the benefits of a problem structuring intervention are vague and evidence of benefits are often anecdotal for example, claims of constructing a deeper understanding of the problem or building the commitment of a group to implementing an outcome. This paper contributes to the evaluation of problem structuring methods by reflecting on the quid pro quo that a client and problem structuring modeller can enjoy from collaboration. The paper reflects on 21 cases, where Journey Making (a problem structuring method) was used with 16 organizations to help managers agree a suite of actions to tackle a complex strategic issue. The reflections are clustered around those benefits that pertain to: PSMs in general; PSMs that use computer-supported workshops; the Journey Making methodology.