Numerical modeling and assessment of the thermal environment in an industrial premise of automotive components

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Promising blood-derived biomarkers for estimation of the postmortem interval

A precise estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI) is one of the most important topics in forensic pathology. However, the PMI estimation is based mainly on the visual observation of cadaverous pheno- mena (e.g. algor, livor and rigor mortis) and on alternative methods such as thanatochemistry that remain relatively imprecise. The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the kinetic alterations of several bio- chemical parameters (i.e. proteins, enzymes, substrates, electrolytes and lipids) during putrefaction of human blood. For this purpose, we performed kinetic biochemical analysis during a 264 hour period. The results showed a significant linear correlation between total and direct bilirubin, urea, uric acid, transferrin, immunoglobulin M (IgM), creatine kinase (CK), aspartate transaminase (AST), calcium and iron with the time of blood putrefaction. These parameters allowed us to develop two mathematical models that may have predictive values and become important complementary tools of traditional methods to achieve a more accurate PMI estimation

Fundamental concepts in multibody dynamics

In this chapter, the fundamental ingredients related to formulation of the equations of motion for multibody systems are described. In particular, aspects such as degrees of freedom, types of coordinates, basic kinematics joints and types of analysis in multibody systems are briefly characterized. Illustrative examples of application are also presented to better clarify the fundamental issues for spatial rigid multibody systems, which are of crucial importance in the formulation development of mathematical models of mechanical systems, as well as its computational implementation.

Mejoramiento del comportamiento térmico de sistemas de calentamiento de agua solares termosifónicos hechos con materiales no convencionales y con tanques de almacenamiento verticales y horizontales Performance improvement of solar thermosyphonic systems for water heating made of non conventional materials and using horizontal and vertical storage tanks

El objeto de estudio de este proyecto son los sistemas de calentamiento de agua mediante energía solar que funcionan termosifónicamente. En particular se tratará con dos diseños particulares generados por fabricantes de la Provincia de Córdoba y que han solicitado el asesoramiento del Grupo de Energía Solar (GES) para el mejoramiento de la performance térmica de dichos equipos. Se trata de dos sistemas que tienen materiales no tradicionales y se diferencian además por tener una distinta disposición del tanque de almacenamiento: uno es en forma vertical y el otro en forma horizontal. Basados en los resultados de un ensayo bajo norma internacional, donde se detectaron algunas puntos factibles de mejora, se propone en este proyecto el análisis en detalle de los equipos, para lo cual se les debe desarmar completos, para realizar un estudio analítico y experimental de los mismos con el objeto de hacer un planteo teórico-analítico del comportamiento de los mismos, con la implementación de propuestas de mejora y chequeo de los resultados. Se propone entonces como objetivo lograr un mejoramiento de la performance térmica de los citados equipos a partir de un estudio experimental y analítico. Asumiendo esta posibilidad de mejora, se plantea la hipótesis de que es posible representar el funcionamiento de estos equipos mediante modelos físico-matemáticos desarrollados a partir de ecuaciones y correlaciones conocidas y procesos a interpretar mediante resoluciones numéricas y softwares específicos de simulación. De esta manera, se plantea el despieze completo de los equipos para estudiar en detalle su estructura y conexiones internas y a partir de la geometría, dimensiones y propiedades termofísicas de materiales constructivos y fluidos de trabajo, realizar modelos físico-matemáticos que permitan realizar variaciones de propiedades y geometría y así buscar las mejores combinaciones que produzcan equipos más eficientes térmicamente. Los modelos físico-matemáticos serán codificados en lenguajes de alto nivel para poder luego de una validación de los modelos, correr simulaciones en un software de reconocimiento internacional que permite sumar dichos modelos mediante un protocolo de comunicación, haciendo que las poderosas prestaciones del software se puedan aplicar a nuestros modelos. Se complementará el estudio con un análisis exergético para identificar los puntos críticos en que se producen las pérdidas de oportunidad de aprovechar la energía disponible, para así analizar cómo solucionar los problemas en dichos puntos. Los materiales a utilizar serán los propios equipos provistos por los fabricantes, que serán modificados convenientemente para operarlos como prototipos Se espera obtener un conocimiento acabado de los procesos y principios de funcionamiento de los equipos, que permita plantear las mejoras, las cuales se implementarán en los prototipos, realizándose una medición mediante norma igual a la inicial para ver en que magnitud se logran las mejoras esperadas. Se pretende además que las mejoras a implementar, en la etapa de transferencia a las empresas involucradas, redunden no sólo en un beneficio técnico, sino que también los sea desde el punto de vista económico. Para ello se trabajará también sobre los procesos y métodos de fabricación para que los equipos mejorados no sean mas caros que los originales y de ser posible sean aún más económicos, todo esto apuntando a la difusión de la energía solar térmica y poner al alcance de todos estos equipos tan convenientes para la propagación de las energías limpias. El proyecto redundará también en un importante beneficio para el conocimiento de la comunidad científica en general, con el aporte de nuevos resultados en diseños novedosos y con nuevos materiales. Además, la institución se beneficiará con la formación que obtendrán los integrantes del proyecto, muchos de ellos en etapa de realización de sus estudios de posgrado y en una etapa importante de su vida como investigadores. The main goal of this project is the improvement of two thermosyphonic solar water heating systems, made of non conventional materials and with different arrangement of their storage tanks: one is vertical and the other one horizontal. The thermosyphonic systems are provided by manufacturers of the Córdoba Province, who came to the Solar Energy Group (GES) of the National University of Río Cuarto looking for help for the design of their products. In an agreement with these manufacturers, it was proposed this project in order to work analytically and experimentally in order to obtain physical-mathematical models of these two systems, which allow for changes to look by means of simulations the best changes to implement on the equipments for the improvement of their thermal performance. Then, the materials to be used are the proper systems provided by the manufacturers, which will be disarmed to be studied in detail. After the analytical study the proposals of improvement will be implemented in a high level language of programming to perform simulations in the environment of a well-known software for energy simulations (TRNSYS). After the simulations, the best modifications will be physically implemented in the prototypes to perform finally the same normalized test of the beginning and check the magnitude of the implemented improvements. The importance of this project is based on the offer of better systems the companies would make, which would benefit the deployment of the thermal solar energy. Another relevant point is to make the new equipments at the same cost of the previous ones or cheaper, in order to achieve a good deployment of the solar water heating systems; then, the manufacture processes and methods must be studied to obtain not only good technical solutions, but also economical equipments. In addition, this project will contribute to the increasing of the knowledge in the area of thermosyphonic solar systems and the training of postgraduate students.

Bases para o estudo da genética de populações dos Hymenoptera em geral e dos Apinae sociais em particular

This paper deals with problems on population genetics in Hymenoptera and particularly in social Apidae. 1) The studies on populations of Hymenoptera were made according to the two basic types of reproduction: endogamy and panmixia. The populations of social Apinae have a mixed method of reproduction with higher percentage of panmixia and a lower of endogamy. This is shown by the following a) males can enter any hive in swarming time; b) males of Meliponini are expelled from hives which does not need them, and thus, are forced to look for some other place; c) Meliponini males were seen powdering themselves with pollen, thus becoming more acceptable in any other hive. The panmixia is not complete owing to the fact that the density of the breeding population as very low, even in the more frequent species as low as about 2 females and 160 males per reproductive area. We adopted as selection values (or survival indices) the expressions according to Brieger (1948,1950) which may be summarised as follows; a population: p2AA + ²pq Aa + q2aa became after selection: x p2AA + 2pq Aa + z q²aa. For alge-braics facilities Brieger divided the three selective values by y giving thus: x/y p2 AA + y/y 2 pq Aa + z/y q²aa. He called x/y of RA and z/y of Ra, that are survival or selective index, calculated in relation to the heterozygote. In our case all index were calculated in relation to the heterozygote, including the ones for haploid males; thus we have: RA surveval index of genotype AA Ra surveval index of genotype aa R'A surveval index of genotype A R'a surveval index of genotype a 1 surveval index of genotype Aa The index R'A ande R'a were equalized to RA and Ra, respectively, for facilities in the conclusions. 2) Panmitic populations of Hymenoptera, barring mutations, migrations and selection, should follow the Hardy-Weinberg law, thus all gens will be present in the population in the inicial frequency (see Graphifc 1). 3) Heterotic genes: If mutation for heterotic gene ( 1 > RA > Ra) occurs, an equilibrium will be reached in a population when: P = R A + Ra - 2R²a _____________ (9) 2(R A + Ra - R²A - R²a q = R A + Ra - 2R²A _____________ (10) 2(R A + Ra - R²A - R²a A heterotic gene in an hymenopteran population may be maintained without the aid of new mutation only if the survival index of the most viable mutant (RA) does not exced the limiting value given by the formula: R A = 1 + √1+Ra _________ 4 If RA has a value higher thah the one permitted by the formula, then only the more viable gene will remain present in the population (see Graphic 10). The only direct proof for heterotic genes in Hymenoptera was given by Mackensen and Roberts, who obtained offspring from Apis mellefera L. queens fertilized by their own sons. Such inbreeding resulted in a rapid loss of vigor the colony; inbred lines intercrossed gave a high hybrid vigor. Other fats correlated with the "heterosis" problem are; a) In a colony M. quadrifasciata Lep., which suffered severely from heat, the percentage of deths omong males was greater .than among females; b) Casteel and Phillips had shown that in their samples (Apis melifera L). the males had 7 times more abnormalities tian the workers (see Quadros IV to VIII); c) just after emerging the males have great variation, but the older ones show a variation equal to that of workers; d) The tongue lenght of males of Apis mellifera L., of Bombus rubicundus Smith (Quadro X), of Melipona marginata Lep. (Quadro XI), and of Melipona quadrifasciata Lep. Quadro IX, show greater variationthan that of workers of the respective species. If such variation were only caused by subviables genes a rapid increasse of homozigoty for the most viable alleles should be expected; then, these .wild populations, supposed to be in equilibrium, could .not show such variability among males. Thus we conclude that heterotic genes have a grat importance in these cases. 4) By means of mathematical models, we came to the conclusion tht isolating genes (Ra ^ Ra > 1), even in the case of mutations with more adaptability, have only the opor-tunity of survival when the population number is very low (thus the frequency of the gene in the breeding population will be large just after its appearence). A pair of such alleles can only remain present in a population when in border regions of two races or subspecies. For more details see Graphics 5 to 8. 5) Sex-limited genes affecting only females, are of great importance toHymenoptera, being subject to the same limits and formulas as diploid panmitic populations (see formulas 12 and 13). The following examples of these genes were given: a) caste-determining genes in the genus Melipona; b) genes permiting an easy response of females to differences in feeding in almost all social Hymenoptera; c) two genes, found in wild populations, one in Trigona (Plebéia) mosquito F. SMITH (quadro XII) and other in Melipona marginata marginata LEP. (Quadro XIII, colonies 76 and 56) showing sex-limited effects. Sex-limited genes affecting only males do not contribute to the plasticity or genie reserve in hymenopteran populations (see formula 14). 6) The factor time (life span) in Hymenoptera has a particular importance for heterotic genes. Supposing one year to be the time unit and a pair of heterotic genes with respective survival indice equal to RA = 0, 90 and Ra = 0,70 to be present; then if the life time of a population is either one or two years, only the more viable gene will remain present (see formula 11). If the species has a life time of three years, then both alleles will be maintained. Thus we conclude that in specis with long lif-time, the heterotic genes have more importance, and should be found more easily. 7) The colonies of social Hymenoptera behave as units in competition, thus in the studies of populations one must determine the survival index, of these units which may be subdivided in indice for egg-laying, for adaptive value of the queen, for working capacity of workers, etc. 8) A study of endogamic hymenopteran populations, reproduced by sister x brother mating (fig. 2), lead us to the following conclusions: a) without selection, a population, heterozygous for one pair of alleles, will consist after some generations (theoretically after an infinite number of generation) of females AA fecundated with males A and females aa fecundated with males a (see Quadro I). b) Even in endogamic population there is the theoretical possibility of the presence of heterotic genes, at equilibrium without the aid of new mutations (see Graphics 11 and 12), but the following! conditions must be satisfied: I - surveval index of both homozygotes (RA e Ra) should be below 0,75 (see Graphic 13); II - The most viable allele must riot exced the less viable one by more than is permited by the following formula (Pimentel Gomes 1950) (see Gra-fic 14) : 4 R5A + 8 Ra R4A - 4 Ra R³A (Ra - 1) R²A - - R²a (4 R²a + 4 Ra - 1) R A + 2 R³a < o Considering these two conditions, the existance of heterotic genes in endogamic populations of Hymenoptera \>ecames very improbable though not - impossible. 9) Genie mutation offects more hymenopteran than diploid populations. Thus we have for lethal genes in diploid populations: u = q2, and in Hymenoptera: u = s, being u the mutation ratio and s the frequency of the mutant in the male population. 10) Three factors, important to competition among species of Meliponini were analysed: flying capacity of workers, food gathering capacity of workers, egg-laying of the queen. In this connection we refer to the variability of the tongue lenght observed in colonies from several localites, to the method of transporting the pollen in the stomach, from some pots (Melliponi-ni storage alveolus) to others (e. g. in cases of pillage), and to the observation that the species with the most populous hives are almost always the most frequent ones also. 11) Several defensive ways used for Meliponini to avoid predation are cited, but special references are made upon the camouflage of both hive (fig. 5) and hive entrance (fig. 4) and on the mimetism (see list in page ). Also under the same heading we described the method of Lestrimelitta for pillage. 12) As mechanisms important for promoting genetic plasticity of hymenopteran species we cited: a) cytological variations and b) genie reserve. As to the former, duplications and numerical variations of chromosomes were studied. Diprion simile ATC was cited as example for polyploidy. Apis mellife-ra L. (n •= 16) also sugests polyploid origen since: a) The genus Melipona, which belongs to a" related tribe, presents in all species so far studied n = 9 chromosomes and b) there occurs formation of dyads in the firt spermatocyte division. It is su-gested that the origin of the sex-chromosome of Apis mellifera It. may be related to the possible origin of diplo-tetraploidy in this species. With regards to the genie reserve, several possible types of mutants were discussed. They were classified according to their survival indices; the heterotic and neutral mutants must be considered as more important for the genie reserve. 13) The mean radius from a mother to a daghter colony was estimated as 100 meters. Since the Meliponini hives swarm only once a year we may take 100 meters a year as the average dispersion of female Meliponini in ocordance to data obtained from Trigona (tetragonisca) jaty F. SMITH and Melipona marginata LEP., while other species may give different values. For males the flying distance was roughly estimated to be 10 times that for females. A review of the bibliography on Meliponini swarm was made (pg. 43 to 47) and new facts added. The population desity (breeding population) corresponds in may species of Meliponini to one male and one female per 10.000 square meters. Apparently the males are more frequent than the females, because there are sometimes many thousands, of males in a swarm; but for the genie frequency the individuals which have descendants are the ones computed. In the case of Apini and Meliponini, only one queen per hive and the males represented by. the spermatozoos in its spermateca are computed. In Meliponini only one male mate with the queen, while queens of Apis mellijera L. are fecundated by an average of about 1, 5 males. (Roberts, 1944). From the date cited, one clearly sees that, on the whole, populations of wild social bees (Meliponini) are so small that the Sewall Wright effect may become of great importance. In fact applying the Wright's formula: f = ( 1/aN♂ + 1/aN♀) (1 - 1/aN♂ + 1/aN♀) which measures the fixation and loss of genes per generation, we see that the fixation or loss of genes is of about 7% in the more frequent species, and rarer species about 11%. The variation in size, tergite color, background color, etc, of Melipona marginata Lep. is atributed to this genetic drift. A detail, important to the survival of Meliponini species, is the Constance of their breeding population. This Constance is due to the social organization, i. e., to the care given to the reproductive individuals (the queen with its sperm pack), to the way of swarming, to the food storage intended to control variations of feeding supply, etc. 14) Some species of the Meliponini are adapted to various ecological conditions and inhabit large geographical areas (e. g. T. (Tetragonisca jaty F. SMITH), and Trigona (Nanno-trigona testaceicornis LEP.) while others are limited to narrow regions with special ecological conditions (e. g. M. fuscata me-lanoventer SCHWARZ). Other species still, within the same geographical region, profit different ecological conditions, as do M. marginata LEP. and M. quadrifasciata LEP. The geographical distribution of Melipona quadrifasciata LEP. is different according to the subspecies: a) subsp anthidio-des LEP. (represented in Fig. 7 by black squares) inhabits a region fron the North of the S. Paulo State to Northeastern Brazil, ,b) subspecies quadrifasciata LEP., (marked in Fig. 7 with black triangles) accurs from the South of S. Paulo State to the middle of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (South Brazil). In the margined region between these two areas of distribution, hi-brid colonies were found (Fig. 7, white circles); they are shown with more details in fig. 8, while the zone of hybridization is roughly indicated in fig. 9 (gray zone). The subspecies quadrifasciata LEP., has 4 complete yellow bands on the abdominal tergites while anthidioides LEP. has interrupted ones. This character is determined by one or two genes and gives different adaptative properties to the subspecies. Figs. 10 shows certains meteorological isoclines which have aproximately the same configuration as the limits of the hybrid zone, suggesting different climatic adaptabilities for both genotypes. The exis-tance of a border zone between the areas of both subspecies, where were found a high frequency of hybrids, is explained as follows: being each subspecies adapted to a special climatic zone, we may suppose a poor adaptation of either one in the border region, which is also a region of intermediate climatic conditions. Thus, the hybrids, having a combination of the parent qualities, will be best adapted to the transition zone. Thus, the hybrids will become heterotic and an equilibrium will be reached with all genotypes present in the population in the border region.

Erstellung einer Blitzschutzrichtlinie für die Produktpalette der FAM im Auftrag der "Gesellschaft für Prozeßautomation mbH" (GPA)"

On the basis of the global use of the FAM installations and systems, their location, type and height, a lightning protection system is required, which protects humans and machines from danger of a lightning. At the beginning the development, the threat and the potential for destruction of lightning are described. Besides the resulting solid normative calculation models and tables are presented. Then, the product portfolio of the FAM is characterized. From this demonstration models are selected; on the one hand a model for the totality of all portable devices and the other hand a model which defines the power plants. Subsequently, the risk management and a strengths and weaknesses analysis are performed. After that, with graphical and mathematical models, these weaknesses as well as the functional equipotential bonding and grounding system and its dimensioning are investigated and solutions are demonstrated. The following is a coordination of lightning protection standard with other directives and standards in order to classify the resulting internal lightning protection and protective measures against electromagnetic pulse and to generate a uniform protection and application platform. Furthermore, problems of the economy of protective circuit is shown and a solution is given. Finally, the indicated possible solutions are replaced by definitions. The main classification and structure of lightning protection directive are shown and exemplarily applied.

Double-Exponential Model of a Photovoltaic Cell with Temperature Dependence

The purpose of the research is the creation of mathematical models in MATLAB based on the double exponential model of the photovoltaic cell. The developed model allows for different physical and environmental parameters. An equivalent circuit of the model includes a photocurrent source, two diodes, and a series and parallel resistance. The paper presents the simulation results for each parameter. The simulation data are displayed graphically and numerical results are saved in a file.

Compartmentalized Cerebral Metabolism of [1,6-(13)C]Glucose Determined by in vivo (13)C NMR Spectroscopy at 14.1 T.

Cerebral metabolism is compartmentalized between neurons and glia. Although glial glycolysis is thought to largely sustain the energetic requirements of neurotransmission while oxidative metabolism takes place mainly in neurons, this hypothesis is matter of debate. The compartmentalization of cerebral metabolic fluxes can be determined by (13)C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy upon infusion of (13)C-enriched compounds, especially glucose. Rats under light α-chloralose anesthesia were infused with [1,6-(13)C]glucose and (13)C enrichment in the brain metabolites was measured by (13)C NMR spectroscopy with high sensitivity and spectral resolution at 14.1 T. This allowed determining (13)C enrichment curves of amino acid carbons with high reproducibility and to reliably estimate cerebral metabolic fluxes (mean error of 8%). We further found that TCA cycle intermediates are not required for flux determination in mathematical models of brain metabolism. Neuronal tricarboxylic acid cycle rate (V(TCA)) and neurotransmission rate (V(NT)) were 0.45 ± 0.01 and 0.11 ± 0.01 μmol/g/min, respectively. Glial V(TCA) was found to be 38 ± 3% of total cerebral oxidative metabolism, accounting for more than half of neuronal oxidative metabolism. Furthermore, glial anaplerotic pyruvate carboxylation rate (V(PC)) was 0.069 ± 0.004 μmol/g/min, i.e., 25 ± 1% of the glial TCA cycle rate. These results support a role of glial cells as active partners of neurons during synaptic transmission beyond glycolytic metabolism.

Modeling AIDS vaccines: the cellular level

This paper discuses current strategies for the development of AIDS vaccines wich allow immunzation to disturb the natural course of HIV at different detailed stages of its life cycle. Mathematical models describing the main biological phenomena (i.e. virus and vaccine induced T4 cell growth; virus and vaccine induced activation latently infected T4 cells; incremental changes immune response as infection progress; antibody dependent enhancement and neutralization of infection) and allowing for different vaccination strategies serve as a backgroud for computer simulations. The mathematical models reproduce updated information on the behavior of immune cells, antibody concentrations and free viruses. The results point to some controversial outcomes of an AIDS vaccine such as an early increase in virus concentration among vaccinated when compared to nonvaccinated individuals.

Les TIC a l'ensenyament de la modelització matemàtica en Ciències Econòmiques i en Ciències Experimentals

Aquest projecte proposa materials didàctics per a un nou plantejament de les assignatures de Matemàtiques dels primers cursos de Ciències Empresarials i d'Enginyeria Tècnica, més acord amb el procés de convergència europea, basat en la realització de projectes que anomenem “Tallers de Modelització Matemàtica” (TMM) en els quals: (1) Els alumnes parteixen de situacions i problemes reals per als quals han de construir per sí mateixos els models matemàtics més adients i, a partir de la manipulació adequada d’aquests models, poden obtenir la informació necessària per donar-los resposta. (2) El treball de construcció, experimentació i avaluació dels models es realitza amb el suport de la calculadora simbòlica Wiris i del full de càlcul Excel com a instruments “normalitzats” del treball matemàtic d’estudiants i professors. (3) S’adapten els programes de les assignatures de matemàtiques de primer curs per tal de poder-les associar a un petit nombre de Tallers que parteixen de situacions adaptades a cada titulació. L’assignatura de Matemàtiques per a les Ciències Empresarials s’articula entorn de dos tallers independents: “Matrius de transició” pel que fa a l’àlgebra lineal i “Previsió de vendes” per a la modelització funcional en una variable. L’assignatura de Matemàtiques per a l’Enginyeria s’articula entorn d’un únic taller, “Models de poblacions”, que abasta la majoria de continguts del curs: successions i models funcionals en una variable, àlgebra lineal i equacions diferencials. Un conjunt d’exercicis interactius basats en la calculadora simbòlica WIRIS (Wiris-player) serveix de suport per al treball tècnic imprescindible per al desenvolupament de les dues assignatures. L’experimentació d’aquests tallers durant 2 cursos consecutius (2006/07 i 2007/08) en dues universitats catalanes (URL i UAB) ha posat en evidència tant els innegables avantatges del nou dispositiu docent per a l’aprenentatge dels estudiants, així com les restriccions institucionals que actualment dificulten la seva gestió i difusió.

Detection of EPO doping and blood doping: the haematological module of the Athlete Biological Passport.

The increase of the body's capacity to transport oxygen is a prime target for doping athletes in all endurance sports. For this pupose, blood transfusions or erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA), such as erythropoietin, NESP, and CERA are used. As direct detection of such manipulations is difficult, biomarkers that are connected to the haematopoietic system (haemoglobin concentration, reticulocytes) are monitored over time (Athlete Biological Passport (ABP)) and analyzed using mathematical models to identify patterns suspicious of doping. With this information, athletes can either be sanctioned directly based on their profile or targeted with conventional doping tests. Key issues for the appropriate use of the ABP are correct targeting and use of all available information (e.g. whereabouts, cross sectional population data) in a forensic manner. Future developments of the passport include the correction of all concentration-based variables for shifts in plasma volume, which might considerably increase sensitivity. New passport markers from the genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic level might add further information, but need to be validated before integration into the passport procedure. A first assessment of blood data of federations that have implemented the passport show encouraging signs of a decreased blood-doping prevalence in their athletes, which adds scientific credibility to this innovative concept in the fight against ESA- and blood doping. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Virus infection speeds: theory versus experiment

In order to explain the speed of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus VSV infections, we develop a simple model that improves previous approaches to the propagation of virus infections. For VSV infections, we find that the delay time elapsed between the adsorption of a viral particle into a cell and the release of its progeny has a veryimportant effect. Moreover, this delay time makes the adsorption rate essentially irrelevant in order to predict VSV infection speeds. Numerical simulations are in agreement with the analytical results. Our model satisfactorily explains the experimentally measured speeds of VSV infections

The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

New tools for epidemiology: a space odyssey

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) facilitate access to epidemiological data through visualization and may be consulted for the development of mathematical models and analysis by spatial statistics. Variables such as land-cover, land-use, elevations, surface temperatures, rainfall etc. emanating from earth-observing satellites, complement GIS as this information allows the analysis of disease distribution based on environmental characteristics. The strength of this approach issues from the specific environmental requirements of those causative infectious agents, which depend on intermediate hosts for their transmission. The distribution of these diseases is restricted, both by the environmental requirements of their intermediate hosts/vectors and by the ambient temperature inside these hosts, which effectively govern the speed of maturation of the parasite. This paper discusses the current capabilities with regard to satellite data collection in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal and spectral) of the sensor instruments on board drawing attention to the utility of computer-based models of the Earth for epidemiological research. Virtual globes, available from Google and other commercial firms, are superior to conventional maps as they do not only show geographical and man-made features, but also allow instant import of data-sets of specific interest, e.g. environmental parameters, demographic information etc., from the Internet.