Dinamicity and unpredictability of emerging markets: an implementation of Goetzamnn and Jorion (1999)

This research is to be considered as an implementation of Goetzmann and Jorion (1999). In order to provide a more realistic scenario, we have implemented a Garch (1,1) approach for the residuals of returns and a multifactor model thus to better replicate the systematic risk of a market. The new simulations reveal some new aspects of emerging markets’ expected returns: the unpredictability of the emerging markets’ returns with the global factor does not depend on the year of emergence and that the unsystematic risk explains the returns of emerging markets for a much larger period of time. The results also reveal the high impact of Exchange rate, Commodities index and of the Global factor in emerging markets’ expected return.

Applying DEMO to model and automate a process in a workflow system: a case study in a city hall

Organizations are Complex systems. A conceptual model of the enterprise is needed that is: coherent the distinguished aspect models constitute a logical and truly integral comprehensive all relevant issues are covered consistent the aspect models are free from contradictions or irregularities concise no superfluous matters are contained in it essential it shows only the essence of the enterprise, i.e., the model abstracts from all realization and implementation issues. The world is in great need for transparency about the operation of all the systems we daily work with, ranging from the domestic appliances to the big societal institutions. In this context the field of enterprise ontology has emerged with the aim to create models that help to understand the essence of the construction and operation of complete systems; more specifically, of enterprises. Enterprise ontology arises in the way to look through the distracting and confusing appearance of an enterprise right into its deep kernel. This, from the perspective of the system designer gives him the tools needed to design a successful system in a way that’s reflects the desires and needs of the workers of the enterprise. This project’s context is the use of DEMO (Design and Engineering Methodology for Organizations) for (re)designing or (re)engineering of an enterprise, namely a process of the construction department of a city hall, the lack of a well-founded theory about the construction and operation of this processes that was the motivation behind this work. The purpose of studying applying the DEMO theory and method was to optimize the process, automating it as much as possible, while reducing paper and time spent between tasks and provide a better service to the citizens.

A Proposal for System Performance Evaluation for an ERP Knowledge Extraction Model

Much has been researched and discussed in the importance played by knowledge in organizations. We are witnessing the establishment of the knowledge economy, but this "new economy" brings in itself a whole complex system of metrics and evaluations, and cannot be dissociated from it. Due to its importance, the initiatives of knowledge management must be continually assessed on their progress in order to verify whether they are moving towards achieving the goals of success. Thus, good measurement practices should include not only how the organization quantifies its knowledge capital, but also how resources are allocated to supply their growth. Thinking about the aspects listed above, this paper presents an approach to a model for Knowledge extraction using an ERP system, suggesting the establishment of a set of indicators for assessing organizational performance. The objective is to evaluate the implementation of projects of knowledge management and thus observe the general development of the organization.

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Neutrino decay and neutrinoless double beta decay in a 3-3-1 model

In this work we show that the implementation of spontaneous breaking of the lepton number in the 3-3-1 model with right-handed neutrinos gives rise to fast neutrino decay with Majoron emission and generates a bunch of new contributions to the neutrinoless double beta decay.

Natural Peccei-Quinn symmetry in the 3-3-1 model with a minimal scalar sector

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A stochastic shift model for economically designed charts constrained by the process stage configuration

An economic model including the labor resource and the process stage configuration is proposed to design g charts allowing for all the design parameters to be varied in an adaptive way. A random shift size is considered during the economic design selection. The results obtained for a benchmark of 64 process stage scenarios show that the activities configuration and some process operating parameters influence the selection of the best control chart strategy: to model the random shift size, its exact distribution can be approximately fitted by a discrete distribution obtained from a relatively small sample of historical data. However, an accurate estimation of the inspection costs associated to the SPC activities is far from being achieved. An illustrative example shows the implementation of the proposed economic model in a real industrial case. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automation in fault detection using neural network and model updating

In this article, an implementation of structural health monitoring process automation based on vibration measurements is proposed. The work presents an alternative approach which intent is to exploit the capability of model updating techniques associated to neural networks to be used in a process of automation of fault detection. The updating procedure supplies a reliable model which permits to simulate any damage condition in order to establish direct correlation between faults and deviation in the response of the model. The ability of the neural networks to recognize, at known signature, changes in the actual data of a model in real time are explored to investigate changes of the actual operation conditions of the system. The learning of the network is performed using a compressed spectrum signal created for each specific type of fault. Different fault conditions for a frame structure are evaluated using simulated data as well as measured experimental data.

Robust linear mixed models with normal/independent distributions and Bayesian MCMC implementation

Linear mixed effects models have been widely used in analysis of data where responses are clustered around some random effects, so it is not reasonable to assume independence between observations in the same cluster. In most biological applications, it is assumed that the distributions of the random effects and of the residuals are Gaussian. This makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed effects models with normal/independent residual distributions for robust inferences are described. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to carry out the posterior analysis. The procedures are illustrated using birth weight data on rats in a texicological experiment. Results from the Gaussian and robust models are contrasted, and it is shown how the implementation can be used for outlier detection. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process in linear mixed models, and they are easily implemented using data augmentation and MCMC techniques.

Planning accelerated life tests under Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present designs for an accelerated life test (ALT). Design/methodology/approach - Bayesian methods and simulation Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used. Findings - In the paper a Bayesian method based on MCMC for ALT under EW distribution (for life time) and Arrhenius models (relating the stress variable and parameters) was proposed. The paper can conclude that it is a reasonable alternative to the classical statistical methods since the implementation of the proposed method is simple, not requiring advanced computational understanding and inferences on the parameters can be made easily. By the predictive density of a future observation, a procedure was developed to plan ALT and also to verify if the conformance fraction of the manufactured process reaches some desired level of quality. This procedure is useful for statistical process control in many industrial applications. Research limitations/implications - The results may be applied in a semiconductor manufacturer. Originality/value - The Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model has never before been used to plan an ALT. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Inclusion of the European Nordic model in the debate concerning social protection reform: the long-term development of Nordic welfare systems (1890-2005) and their transferability to Latin America in the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

Implementation of DNA markers to produce genomically - Enhanced EPDs in nellore cattle

Background: The sequencing and publication of the cattle genome and the identification of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) molecular markers have provided new tools for animal genetic evaluation and genomic-enhanced selection. These new tools aim to increase the accuracy and scope of selection while decreasing generation interval. The objective of this study was to evaluate the enhancement of accuracy caused by the use of genomic information (Clarifide® - Pfizer) on genetic evaluation of Brazilian Nellore cattle. Review: The application of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is recognized as one of the most practical approaches to modern genetic improvement. Genomic selection is perhaps most suited to the improvement of traits with low heritability in zebu cattle. The primary interest in livestock genomics has been to estimate the effects of all the markers on the chip, conduct cross-validation to determine accuracy, and apply the resulting information in GWAS either alone [9] or in combination with bull test and pedigree-based genetic evaluation data. The cost of SNP50K genotyping however limits the commercial application of GWAS based on all the SNPs on the chip. However, reasonable predictability and accuracy can be achieved in GWAS by using an assay that contains an optimally selected predictive subset of markers, as opposed to all the SNPs on the chip. The best way to integrate genomic information into genetic improvement programs is to have it included in traditional genetic evaluations. This approach combines traditional expected progeny differences based on phenotype and pedigree with the genomic breeding values based on the markers. Including the different sources of information into a multiple trait genetic evaluation model, for within breed dairy cattle selection, is working with excellent results. However, given the wide genetic diversity of zebu breeds, the high-density panel used for genomic selection in dairy cattle (Ilumina Bovine SNP50 array) appears insufficient for across-breed genomic predictions and selection in beef cattle. Today there is only one breed-specific targeted SNP panel and genomic predictions developed using animals across the entire population of the Nellore breed (www.pfizersaudeanimal.com), which enables genomically - enhanced selection. Genomic profiles are a way to enhance our current selection tools to achieve more accurate predictions for younger animals. Material and Methods: We analyzed the age at first calving (AFC), accumulated productivity (ACP), stayability (STAY) and heifer pregnancy at 30 months (HP30) in Nellore cattle fitting two different animal models; 1) a traditional single trait model, and 2) a two-trait model where the genomic breeding value or molecular value prediction (MVP) was included as a correlated trait. All mixed model analyses were performed using the statistical software ASREML 3.0. Results: Genetic correlation estimates between AFC, ACP, STAY, HP30 and respective MVPs ranged from 0.29 to 0.46. Results also showed an increase of 56%, 36%, 62% and 19% in estimated accuracy of AFC, ACP, STAY and HP30 when MVP information was included in the animal model. Conclusion: Depending upon the trait, integration of MVP information into genetic evaluation resulted in increased accuracy of 19% to 62% as compared to accuracy from traditional genetic evaluation. GE-EPD will be an effective tool to enable faster genetic improvement through more dependable selection of young animals.

Changes in the distribution of income and the New Economic Model in Jamaica

Includes bibliography

Computational tool to support design of DAC Converter model AD7528 with the object code in XML

Based on literature review, electronic systems design employ largely top-down methodology. The top-down methodology is vital for success in the synthesis and implementation of electronic systems. In this context, this paper presents a new computational tool, named BD2XML, to support electronic systems design. From a block diagram system of mixed-signal is generated object code in XML markup language. XML language is interesting because it has great flexibility and readability. The BD2XML was developed with object-oriented paradigm. It was used the AD7528 converter modeled in MATLAB / Simulink as a case study. The MATLAB / Simulink was chosen as a target due to its wide dissemination in academia and industry. From this case study it is possible to demonstrate the functionality of the BD2XML and make it a reflection on the design challenges. Therefore, an automatic tool for electronic systems design reduces the time and costs of the design.

A software development process model for gesture-based interface

Gesture-based applications have particularities, since users interact in a natural way, much as they interact in the non-digital world. Hence, new requirements are needed on the software design process. This paper shows a software development process model for these applications, including requirement specification, design, implementation, and testing procedures. The steps and activities of the proposed model were tested through a game case study, which is a puzzle game. The puzzle is completed when all pieces of a painting are correctly positioned by the drag and drop action of users hand gesture. It also shows the results obtained of applying a heuristic evaluation on this game. © 2012 IEEE.