Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

I/Q imbalance in two-way AF relaying

We analyze the performance of dual-hop two-way amplify-and-forward relaying in the presence of in-phase and quadrature-phase imbalance (IQI) at the relay node. In particular, two power allocation schemes, namely, fixed power allocation and instantaneous power allocation, are proposed to improve the system reliability and robustness against IQI under a total transmit power constraint. For each proposed scheme, the outage probability is investigated over independent, non-identically distributed Nakagami- m fading channels, and exact closed-form expressions and bounds are derived. Our theoretical analysis indicates that, without IQI compensation, IQI can create fundamental performance limits on two-way relaying. However, these limits can be avoided by performing IQI compensation at source nodes. Compared with the equal power allocation scheme, our numerical results show that the two proposed power allocation schemes can significantly improve the outage performance, thus reducing the IQI effects, particularly when the total power budget is large.

The radiated energy budget of Chromospheric Plasma in a major solar flare deduced from multi-wavelength observations

This paper presents measurements of the energy radiated by the lower solar atmosphere, at optical, UV, and EUV wavelengths, during an X-class solar flare (SOL2011-02-15T01:56) in response to an injection of energy assumed to be in the form of nonthermal electrons. Hard X-ray observations from RHESSI were used to track the evolution of the parameters of the nonthermal electron distribution to reveal the total power contained in flare accelerated electrons. By integrating over the duration of the impulsive phase, the total energy contained in the nonthermal electrons was found to be >2 × 1031 erg. The response of the lower solar atmosphere was measured in the free–bound EUV continua of H i (Lyman), He i, and He ii, plus the emission lines of He ii at 304 Å and H i (Lyα) at 1216 Å by SDO/EVE, the UV continua at 1600 Å and 1700 Å by SDO/AIA, and the white light continuum at 4504 Å, 5550 Å, and 6684 Å, along with the Ca ii H line at 3968 Å using Hinode/SOT. The summed energy detected by these instruments amounted to ~3 × 1030 erg; about 15% of the total nonthermal energy. The Lyα line was found to dominate the measured radiative losses. Parameters of both the driving electron distribution and the resulting chromospheric response are presented in detail to encourage the numerical modeling of flare heating for this event, to determine the depth of the solar atmosphere at which these line and continuum processes originate, and the mechanism(s) responsible for their generation.

Cognitive amplify-and-forward relay networks with beamforming under primary user power constraint over Nakagami-m fading channels

In this paper, we analyze the performance of cognitive amplify-and-forward (AF) relay networks with beamforming under the peak interference power constraint of the primary user (PU). We focus on the scenario that beamforming is applied at the multi-antenna secondary transmitter and receiver. Also, the secondary relay network operates in channel state information-assisted AF mode, and the signals undergo independent Nakagami-m fading. In particular, closed-form expressions for the outage probability and symbol error rate (SER) of the considered network over Nakagami-m fading are presented. More importantly, asymptotic closed-form expressions for the outage probability and SER are derived. These tractable closed-form expressions for the network performance readily enable us to evaluate and examine the impact of network parameters on the system performance. Specifically, the impact of the number of antennas, the fading severity parameters, the channel mean powers, and the peak interference power is addressed. The asymptotic analysis manifests that the peak interference power constraint imposed on the secondary relay network has no effect on the diversity gain. However, the coding gain is affected by the fading parameters of the links from the primary receiver to the secondary relay network

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Equality, justice and feasibility: an ethical analysis of the WBGU’s budget approach

According to the Budget Approach proposed by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), allocating CO2 emission rights to countries on an equal per-capita basis would provide an ethically justified response to global climate change. In this paper, we will highlight four normative issues which beset the WBGU’s Budget Approach: (1) the approach’s core principle of distributive justice, the principle of equality, and its associated policy of emissions egalitarianism are much more complex than it initially appears; (2) the “official” rationale for determining the size of the budget should be modified in order to avoid implausible normative assumptions about the imposition of permissible intergenerational risks; (3) the approach heavily relies on trade-offs between justice and feasibility which should be stated more explicitly; and (4) part of the approach’s ethical appeal depends on policy instruments which are “detachable” from the approach’s core principle of distributive justice.

Optimal Route Search with the Coverage of Users' Preferences

The preferences of users are important in route search and planning. For example, when a user plans a trip within a city, their preferences can be expressed as keywords shopping mall, restaurant, and museum, with weights 0.5, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. The resulting route should best satisfy their weighted preferences. In this paper, we take into account the weighted user preferences in route search, and present a keyword coverage problem, which finds an optimal route from a source location to a target location such that the keyword coverage is optimized and that the budget score satisfies a specified constraint. We prove that this problem is NP-hard. To solve this complex problem, we pro- pose an optimal route search based on an A* variant for which we have defined an admissible heuristic function. The experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate both the efficiency and accu- racy of our proposed algorithms.

Balancing the (carbon) budget: Using linear inverse models to estimate carbon flows and mass-balance 13C:15N labelling experiments in low oxygen sediments.

Over 1 million km² of seafloor experience permanent low-oxygen conditions within oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). OMZs are predicted to grow as a consequence of climate change, potentially affecting oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The Arabian Sea OMZ impinges upon the western Indian continental margin at bathyal depths (150 - 1500 m) producing a strong depth dependent oxygen gradient at the sea floor. The influence of the OMZ upon the short term processing of organic matter by sediment ecosystems was investigated using in situ stable isotope pulse chase experiments. These deployed doses of ¹³C:¹⁵N labeled organic matter onto the sediment surface at four stations from across the OMZ (water depth 540 - 1100 m; [O₂] = 0.35 - 15 μM). In order to prevent experimentally anoxia, the mesocosms were not sealed. ¹³C and ¹⁵N labels were traced into sediment, bacteria, fauna and ¹³C into sediment porewater DIC and DOC. However, the DIC and DOC flux to the water column could not be measured, limiting our capacity to obtain mass-balance for C in each experimental mesocosm. Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) provides a method to obtain a mass-balanced model of carbon flow that integrates stable-isotope tracer data with community biomass and biogeochemical flux data from a range of sources. Here we present an adaptation of the LIM methodology used to investigate how ecosystem structure influenced carbon flow across the Indian margin OMZ. We demonstrate how oxygen conditions affect food-web complexity, affecting the linkages between the bacteria, foraminifera and metazoan fauna, and their contributions to benthic respiration. The food-web models demonstrate how changes in ecosystem complexity are associated with oxygen availability across the OMZ and allow us to obtain a complete carbon budget for the stationa where stable-isotope labelling experiments were conducted.

Towards a budget approach to Pleistocene terraces: preliminary studies using the River Exe in South West England, UK

This paper presents a first approach to using a sediment budget methodology for paired terrace staircase sediments in SW England. Although a budget approach has become firmly established in Holocene fluvial studies, it has not been used in Pleistocene sequences due to the problems of temporal resolution, catchment changes and downstream loss from the system. However, this paper uses a budget approach in a paired non-glaciated basin, primarily as a method of interrogating the terrace record concerning the degree of reworking and new sediment input required to produce the reconstructed terrace sequences. In order to apply a budget approach a number of assumptions have to be made and these are justified in the paper. The results suggest that the Exe system can most parsimoniously be explained principally by the reworking of a Middle Pleistocene floodplain system with relatively little input of new resistant clasts required and a cascade-type model in geomorphological terms. Whilst this maybe partially a result of the specific geology of the catchment, it is likely to be representative of many Pleistocene terrace systems in NW Europe due to their litho-tectonic similarities. This cascade-type model of terrace formation has archaeological implications and sets the context for the Palaeolithic terrace record in the UK. Future work will involve the testing of this and similar budget models using a combination of landscape modelling and chronometric dating. ?? 2009 The Geologists' Association.

Behaviour-time budget and functional habitat use of a free-ranging European badger (Meles meles)

Background: The European badger (Melesmeles) is involved in the maintenance of bovine tuberculosis infection and onward spread to cattle. However, little is known about how transmission occurs. One possible route could be through direct contact between infected badgers and cattle. It is also possible that indirect contact between cattle and infected badger excretory products such as faeces or urine may occur either on pasture or within and around farm buildings. A better understanding of behaviour patterns in wild badgers may help to develop biosecurity measures to minimise direct and indirect contact between badgers and cattle. However, monitoring the behaviour of free-ranging badgers can be logistically challenging and labour intensive due to their nocturnal and semi-fossorial nature.We trialled a GPS and tri-axial accelerometer-equipped collar on a free-ranging badger to assess its potential value to elucidate behaviour-time budgets and functional habitat use. Results: During the recording period between 16:00 and 08:00 on a single night, resting was the most commonly identified behaviour (67.4%) followed by walking (20.9%), snuffling (9.5%) and trotting (2.3%).When examining accelerometer data associated with each GPS fix and habitat type (occurring 2 min 30 s before and after), walking was themost common behaviour in woodland (40.3%) and arable habitats (53.8%), while snuffling was themost common behaviour in pasture (61.9%). Several nocturnal resting periods were also observed. The total distance travelled was 2.28 km. Conclusions: In the present report, we demonstrate proof of principle in the application of a combined GPS and accelerometer device to collect detailed quantitative data on wild badger behaviour. Behaviour-time budgets allow us to investigate how badgers allocate energy to different activities and how thismight change with disease status. Such information could be useful in the development of measures to reduce opportunities for onward transmission of bovine tuberculosis from badgers to cattle.

Budget 2016: experts respond

Fairness

Efficacy and Acceptability of Reduced Intensity Constraint-Induced Movement Therapy for Children Aged 9–11 years with Hemiplegic Cerebral Palsy: A Pilot Study

OBJECTIVE: Assess efficacy and acceptability of reduced intensity constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) in children with cerebral palsy (CP).

METHODS: Single-subject research design and semi-structured interviews. Children (9-11y) with hemiplegia underwent five baseline assessments followed by two weeks CIMT. Six further assessments were performed during treatment and follow-up phases. The primary outcome was the Melbourne Assessment of Unilateral Upper Limb Function (MUUL). Quantitative data were analysed using standard single-subject methods and qualitative data by thematic analysis.

RESULTS: Four of the seven participants demonstrated statistically significant improvements in MUUL (3-11%, p < .05). Two participants achieved significant improvements in active range of motion but strength and tone remained largely unchanged. Qualitative interviews highlighted limitations of the restraint, importance of family involvement, and coordination of treatment with education.

CONCLUSIONS: Reduced intensity CIMT may be effective for some children in this population; however it is not suitable for all children with hemiplegia.