The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of innate immunity in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus)

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodology to establish the hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of the innate immunity in Brazilian fish pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), in addition to verifying the influence of β-glucan as an immunostimulant. Fish were fed with diets containing 0, 0.1 and 1% β-glucan, during seven days, and then inoculated with Aeromonas hydrophila. Seven days after the challenge, they were bled for serum extraction. The methodology consisted of a kinetic assay that allows calculating the required time for serum proteins of the complement to promote 50% lysis of a rabbit red blood cell suspension. The method developed in mammals was successfully applied for pacu and determined that the hemolytic activity of the proteins of the complement system (alternative pathway) increased after the pathogen challenge, but was not influenced by the β-glucan treatment.

Electrical conductivity as an indicator of pea seed aging of stored at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimation of fecal production, digesta flow and digestibility in dairy heifers with different indicator

Objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar a produção fecal por meio do indicador interno, fibra em detergente neutro indigestível (FDNi), e externos, cromo complexado com ácido etilenodiaminotetracético (Cr-EDTA ) e o cloreto de itérbio (YbCl3), além de estimar o fluxo duodenal da matéria seca e os coeficientes de digestibilidades aparentes total, ruminal e pós-ruminal, de diferentes nutrientes. Foram utilizadas oito novilhas mestiças Holandês/Zebu, distribuídas em duplo quadrado latino 4 x 4. Os indicadores Cr-EDTA, YbCl3 e o FDNi não estimaram produção fecal de forma eficiente (p < 0,05), obtendo resultado de 1,64; 1,71 e 2,71 kg dia-1, respectivamente, quando comparado à coleta total de fezes, que obteve resultado de 1,39 kg dia-1. Os valores estimados de fluxo de matéria seca, tanto para a metodologia de único, quanto para de duplo indicador, podem ser considerados biologicamente aceitáveis. Contudo, o valor obtido pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, utilizada na forma de duplo indicador, foi o mais confiável, pela melhor recuperação dos indicadores externos (Cr-EDTA e YbCl3), que obtiveram médias de 89 e 85%, respectivamente, em comparação ao interno (FDNi), que obteve média 67%. Os coeficientes de digestibilidade ruminal e pós ruminal, estimados pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, foram considerados melhores, em consequência do valor de fluxo de matéria seca estimado por esta associação.

Indicator-free electrochemical DNA hybridization biosensor

A new electrochemical hybridization biosensor protocol without an external indicator is described. The biosensor format involves the immobilization of inosine-substituted (guanine-free) probe onto the carbon paste transducer, and a direct chronopotentiometric detection of the duplex formation by the appearance of the guanine oxidation peak of the target. Such a use of the intrinsic DNA electrochemical response for monitoring hybridization events offers several advantages (over the common use of external indicators), including the appearance of a new peak, a Aat background, or simplicity. A 4 min short hybridization period allows a detection limit around 120 ng/ml. Performance characteristics of the sensor are described along with future prospects. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.