856 resultados para Energy Supply-Demand Modeling.


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Conventional thinkin g holds that increased energy consumption is a prerequisite for economic and social development. This belief, together With the prospect of dwindling global petroleum supplies and the high costs of expanding energy supply generally, lead many to believe that it is not feasible to improve living standards substantially in the developing countries. But by shifting to high-quality energy carriers and by exploiting cost-effective opportunities for more efficient energy use, it would be possible to satisfy basic human needs and to provide considerable further improvements in living standards without significantly increasing per-capita energy use above the present level.

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Maintenance of green leaf area during grain filling can increase grain yield of sorghum grown under terminal water limitation. This 'stay-green' trait has been related to the nitrogen (N) supply-demand balance during grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of grain and N translocation rates from leaves and stem and explores effects of genotype and N stress on onset and rate of leaf senescence during the grain filling period. Three hybrids differing in potential height were grown at three levels of N supply under well-watered conditions. Vertical profiles of biomass, leaf area, and N% of leaves, stem and grain were measured at regular intervals. Weekly SPAD chlorophyll readings on main shoot leaves were correlated with observed specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) to derive seasonal patterns of leaf N content. For all hybrids, individual grain N demand was sink determined and was initially met through N translocation from the stem and rachis. Only if this was insufficient did leaf N translocation occur. Maximum N translocation rates from leaves and stem were dependent on their N status. However, the supply of N at canopy scale was also related to the amount of leaf area senescing at any one time. This supply-demand framework for N dynamics explained effects of N stress and genotype on the onset and rate of leaf senescence.

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There is a large gap between the refined approaches to characterise genotypes and the common use of location and season as a coarse surrogate for environmental characterisation of breeding trials. As a framework for breeding, the aim of this paper is quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal and water stress for field pea in Australia. We compiled a dataset for yield of the cv. Kaspa measured in 185 environments, and investigated the associations between yield and seasonal patterns of actual temperature and modelled water stress. Correlations between yield and temperature indicated two distinct stages. In the first stage, during crop establishment and canopy expansion before flowering, yield was positively associated with minimum temperature. Mean minimum temperature below similar to 7 degrees C suggests that crops were under suboptimal temperature for both canopy expansion and radiation-use efficiency during a significant part of this early growth period. In the second stage, during critical reproductive phases, grain yield was negatively associated with maximum temperature over 25 degrees C. Correlations between yield and modelled water supply/demand ratio showed a consistent pattern with three phases: no correlation at early stages of the growth cycle, a progressive increase in the association that peaked as the crop approached the flowering window, and a progressive decline at later reproductive stages. Using long-term weather records (1957-2010) and modelled water stress for 104 locations, we identified three major patterns of water deficit nation wide. Environment type 1 (ET1) represents the most favourable condition, with no stress during most of the pre-flowering phase and gradual development of mild stress after flowering. Type 2 is characterised by increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and 200 degree-days after flowering and rainfall that relieves stress late in the season. Type 3 represents the more stressful condition with increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and maturity. Across Australia, the frequency of occurrence was 24% for ET1, 32% for ET2 and 43% for ET3, highlighting the dominance of the most stressful condition. Actual yield averaged 2.2 t/ha for ET1, 1.9 t/ha for ET2 and 1.4 t/ha for ET3, and the frequency of each pattern varied substantially among locations. Shifting from a nominal (i.e. location and season) to a quantitative (i.e. stress type) characterisation of environments could help improving breeding efficiency of field pea in Australia.

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The first aim of this thesis was to produce data for evaluating, developing and recommending biologically and economically efficient energy and protein feeding strategies for growing and finishing dairy bulls offered grass silage-based diets. The second aim was to calculate the energy and protein supplies of the dairy bulls fed different grass silage-cereal-based diets and, based on this, to estimate the possible need to revise the current Finnish energy and protein recommendations for growing dairy bulls. The third aim was to demonstrate the phosphorus supply of dairy bulls fed grass silage-cereal-based diets with or without protein supplementation in relation to current feeding recommendations for phosphorus. The results indicate that protein supplement is not needed for finishing dairy bulls (live weight more than 250 kg) when they are fed good-quality grass silage (digestible organic matter more than 650 g/kg dry matter, restricted fermentation with low concentrations of fermentation acids and ammonia N) and grain-based concentrate with a moderate (300-700 g/kg dry matter) concentrate level. The results also suggest that with total mixed ration feeding it is possible to use rather high concentrate proportions (700 g/kg dry matter) in feeding dairy bulls. According to this study, barley fibre is a suitable energy supplement with good-quality silage for growing dairy bulls. The results suggest that 50% of barley grain can be replaced with barley fibre without affecting growth. Also oats is a suitable energy supplement for dairy bulls. However, as a consequence of decreased energy intake, the gain and feed conversion of the bulls were slightly reduced in this study when barley grain was replaced by oats in the diet. Ultimately, the rationality of the use of barley fibre and oats in the future will depend on the price in relation to other concentrates. During the feeding experiments the calculated supply of energy was 10% higher than in the Finnish feeding recommendations for the present growth rate. This indicates that there is a need to update the Finnish feeding recommendations for dairy-breed growing bulls, and further calculations are needed for the energy supply of growing dairy bulls. The calculated supply of AAT (amino acids absorbed from the small intestine) was 38% higher than in the Finnish feeding recommendations for the present growth. Possibly, the present AAT-PBV system is not an optimal protein evaluation system for growing dairy bulls more than 250 kg live weight. The calculations based on the feeding experiments and the Finnish feeding recommendations indicate that in most cases the dairy bulls (live weight more than 250 kg) received enough P from the basic grass silage cereal-based diets without additional mineral feeds. Therefore there is no need to add P in the form of mineral mixtures.

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Recurring water stresses are a major risk factor for rainfed maize cropping across the highly diverse agro-ecological environments of Queensland (Qld) and northern New South Wales (NNSW). Enhanced understanding of such agro-ecological diversity is necessary to more consistently sample target production environments for testing and targeting release of improved germplasm, and to improve the efficiency of the maize pre-breeding and breeding programs of Qld and New South Wales. Here, we used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) – a well validated maize crop model to characterize the key distinctive water stress patterns and risk to production across the main maize growing regions of Qld and NNSW located between 15.8° and 31.5°S, and 144.5° and 151.8°E. APSIM was configured to simulate daily water supply demand ratios (SDRs) around anthesis as an indicator of the degree of water stress, and the final grain yield. Simulations were performed using daily climatic records during the period between 1890 and 2010 for 32 sites-soils in the target production regions. The runs were made assuming adequate nitrogen supply for mid-season maize hybrid Pioneer 3153. Hierarchical complete linkage analyses of the simulated yield resulted in five major clusters showing distinct probability distribution of the expected yields and geographic patterns. The drought stress patterns and their frequencies using SDRs were quantified using multivariate statistical methods. The identified stress patterns included no stress, mid-season (flowering) stress, and three terminal stresses differing in terms of severity. The combined frequency of flowering and terminal stresses was highest (82.9%), mainly in sites-soils combinations in the west of Qld and NNSW. Yield variability across the different sites-soils was significantly related to the variability in frequencies of water stresses. Frequencies of water stresses within each yield cluster tended to be similar, but different across clusters. Sites-soils falling within each yield cluster therefore could be treated as distinct maize production environments for testing and targeting newly developed maize cultivars and hybrids for adaptation to water stress patterns most common to those environments.

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Tillering determines the plant size of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and an understanding of its regulation is important to match genotypes to prevalent growing conditions in target production environments. The aim of this study was to determine the physiological and environmental regulation of variability in tillering among sorghum genotypes, and to develop a framework for this regulation. * Diverse sorghum genotypes were grown in three experiments with contrasting temperature, radiation and plant density to create variation in tillering. Data on phenology, tillering, and leaf and plant size were collected. A carbohydrate supply/demand (S/D) index that incorporated environmental and genotypic parameters was developed to represent the effects of assimilate availability on tillering. Genotypic differences in tillering not explained by this index were defined as propensity to tiller (PTT) and probably represented hormonal effects. * Genotypic variation in tillering was associated with differences in leaf width, stem diameter and PTT. The S/D index captured most of the environmental effects on tillering and PTT most of the genotypic effects. * A framework that captures genetic and environmental regulation of tillering through assimilate availability and PTT was developed, and provides a basis for the development of a model that connects genetic control of tillering to its phenotypic consequences.

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We consider a single-hop data-gathering sensor network, consisting of a set of sensor nodes that transmit data periodically to a base-station. We are interested in maximizing the lifetime of this network. With our definition of network lifetime and the assumption that the radio transmission energy consumption forms the most significant portion of the total energy consumption at a sensor node, we attempt to enhance the network lifetime by reducing the transmission energy budget of sensor nodes by exploiting three system-level opportunities. We pose the problem of maximizing lifetime as a max-min optimization problem subject to the constraint of successful data collection and limited energy supply at each node. This turns out to be an extremely difficult optimization to solve. To reduce the complexity of this problem, we allow the sensor nodes and the base-station to interactively communicate with each other and employ instantaneous decoding at the base-station. The chief contribution of the paper is to show that the computational complexity of our problem is determined by the complex interplay of various system-level opportunities and challenges.

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Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) to hydrocarbon fuel with solar energy is significant for high-density solar energy storage and carbon balance. In this work, single palladium/platinum (Pd/Pt) atoms supported on graphitic carbon nitride (g-C3N4), i.e. Pd/g-C3N4 and Pt/g-C3N4, acting as photocatalysts for CO2 reduction were investigated by density function theory (DFT) calcu-lations for the first time. During CO2 reduction, the individual metal atoms function as the active sites, while g-C3N4 provides the source of hydrogen (H*) from hydrogen evolution reaction. The complete, as-designed photocatalysts exhibit excellent activity in CO2 reduction. HCOOH is the preferred product of CO2 reduction on the Pd/g-C3N4 catalyst with a rate-determining barrier of 0.66 eV, while the Pt/g-C3N4 catalyst prefers to reduce CO2 to CH4 with a rate-determining barrier of 1.16 eV. In addition, depositing atom catalysts on g-C3N4 significantly enhances the visible light absorption, rendering them ideal for visible light reduction of CO2. Our findings open a new avenue of CO2 reduction for renewable energy supply.

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In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

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Recent experiments using three point bend specimens of Mg single crystals have revealed that tensile twins of {10 (1) over bar2}-type form profusely near a notch tip and enhance the fracture toughness through large plastic dissipation. In this work, 3D finite element simulations of these experiments are carried out using a crystal plasticity framework which includes slip and twinning to gain insights on the mechanics of fracture. The predicted load-displacement curves, slip and tensile twinning activities from finite element analysis corroborate well with the experimental observations. The numerical results are used to explore the 3D nature of the crack tip stress, plastic slip and twin volume fraction distributions near the notch root. The occurrence of tensile twinning is rationalized from the variation of normal stress ahead of the notch tip. Further, deflection of the crack path at twin-twin intersections observed in the experiments is examined from an energy standpoint by modeling discrete twins close to the notch root.

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In this paper, we develop a consolidated Supply-Demand framework of the Venture Capital (VC) ecosystem for India. Further, we empirically analyze the supply side of this ecosystem to ascertain the influence of systematic (macro) and non-systematic (micro) factors on VC fundraising. At the macro level, our results indicate that relatively strong fundamentals of the Indian economy in the past decade as compared with the severe recessionary tendencies in the developed economies have been critical in determining the aggregate volume of VC fundraising. Among the micro factors, past performance and reputation of the individual fund managers have been instrumental in determining their fund raising potential.

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Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

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In this paper, the general Mach number equation is derived, and the influence of typical energy forms in the solar wind is analysed in detail. It shows that the accelerating process of the solar wind is influenced critically by the form of heating in the corona, and that the transonic mechanism is mainly the result of the adjustment of the variation of the crosssection of flowing tubes and the heat source term.The accelerating mechanism for both the high-speed stream from the coronal hole and the normal solar wind is similar. But, the temperature is low in the lower level of the coronal hole and more heat energy supply in the outside is required, hence the high speed of the solar wind; while the case with the ordinary coronal region is just the opposite, and the velocity of the solar wind is therefore lower. The accelerating process for various typical parameters is calculated, and it is found that the high-speed stream may reach 800 km/sec.

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Slaughtering of eels should be done not only under animal welfare aspects but as well under consumer protection and economical aspects with respect to technical feasibility. Methods must be practicable for enterprises slaughtering quantities of several kilograms up to several tons per day. Most methods applied up to now in whole Europe were (are) not in accordance with animal welfare mainly due to lacking prescriptions and alternative methods. The great number of experiments carried out within the frame of this project demonstrates the difficulties to combine optimal welfare demands with economical and technical fesibility aspects in one method. Measurements of EEG (electroencephalogram) and ECG (electrocardiogram) have shown that the method laid down in the german legislation does not perfectly stun all eels. This method was improved by applying a „prestun“ with 220 V for 1sec., followed by a 5 min phase at 45 V to prolongue the time of unconsciousness after the stun. Inflating nitrogen gas into the stunning bath additionally causes asphyxia during the stun. By this method 93% of the eels were stunned or even killed. Applying 220 V for bigger batches of eels (~400 kg) will cause big problems with the energy supply. Therefore this method is restricted to batches of 20 - 50 kg. The method laid down in the german legislation probably can be improved. Eels were stunned successfully without water, avoiding the problems of regional differences in the conductivity of the water. Other types of current and other frequencies and a combination of both should be tested as well as alternative electrode geometries also with respect to blood spots which occasionally occurred in the muscles preferably of bigger eels (>800 g). For the time being the method laid down in the german legislation is a reasonable compromise and under animal welfare aspects represents a considerable improvement.

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The noise emission of the vessel, especially in shallow waters, causes a fright reaction of the fishes near the vessel. To reduce the uncertainty of hydroacoustic measurements connected with that fact, a side shifted towed body is used for the hydroacoustic stock estimation in the Baltic sea. If the towed body was running close to the surface it was quite sensitive to waves. To make the running properties of the side shifted towed body more robust a control of the center of buoyancy depending on the diving depth was introduced. The goal was set to control the towed body without additional energy supply. First results are shown.