Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

Evaluating tests for convergence of economic series using Monte Carlo methods with an application to real GDP's per head.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Estimation of leaf area in grapevine cv. Syrah using empirical models

Aiming to obtain empirical models for the estimation of Syrah leaf area a set of 210 fruiting shoots was randomly collected during the 2013 growing season in an adult experimental vineyard, located in Lisbon, Portugal. Samples of 30 fruiting shoots were taken periodically from the stage of inflorescences visible to veraison (7 sampling dates). At the lab, from each shoot, primary and lateral leaves were separated and numbered according to node insertion. For each leaf, the length of the central and lateral veins was recorded and then the leaf area was measured by a leaf area meter. For single leaf area estimation the best statistical models uses as explanatory variable the sum of the lengths of the two lateral leaf veins. For the estimation of leaf area per shoot it was followed the approach of Lopes & Pinto (2005), based on 3 explanatory variables: number of primary leaves and area of the largest and smallest leaves. The best statistical model for estimation of primary leaf area per shoot uses a calculated variable obtained from the average of the largest and smallest primary leaf area multiplied by the number of primary leaves. For lateral leaf area estimation another model using the same type of calculated variable is also presented. All models explain a very high proportion of variability in leaf area. Our results confirm the already reported strong importance of the three measured variables (number of leaves and area of the largest and smallest leaf) as predictors of the shoot leaf area. The proposed models can be used to accurately predict Syrah primary and secondary leaf area per shoot in any phase of the growing cycle. They are inexpensive, practical, non-destructive methods which do not require specialized staff or expensive equipment.

Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Review of Empirical Research

In the past decade, Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has become a major element of global capital flows. As a consequence, recent years have witnessed an increasing growth in the number of papers focusing on Chinese companies “going global.” This paper reviews 112 empirical papers focusing on Chinese OFDI that were published in major scholarly journals between 2002 and 2014. We report on individual and institutional contributions, citations, the theories and methods used and the research topics. We also identify the research gaps and discuss the implications of our literature review for future theory building.

The Relationship between Job Structure, Burnout, and Coping Methods among Public School county Bus Drivers, Bus Aides, Mechanics, and Clerical Workers

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between the structure of jobs and burnout, and to assess to what extent, if any this relationship was moderated by individual coping methods. This study was supported by the Karasek's (1998) Job Demand-Control-Support theory of work stress as well as Maslach and Leiter's (1993) theory of burnout. Coping was examined as a moderator based on the conceptualization of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). Two overall overarching questions framed this study: (a) what is the relationship between job structure, as operationalized by job title, and burnout across different occupations in support services in a large municipal school district? and (b) To what extent do individual differences in coping methods moderate this relationship? This study was a cross-sectional study of county public school bus drivers, bus aides, mechanics, and clerical workers (N = 253) at three bus depot locations within the same district using validated survey instruments for data collection. Hypotheses were tested using simultaneous regression analyses. Findings indicated that there were statistically significant and relevant relationships among the variables of interest; job demands, job control, burnout, and ways of coping. There was a relationship between job title and physical job demands. There was no evidence to support a relationship between job title and psychological demands. Furthermore, there was a relationship between physical demands, emotional exhaustion and personal accomplishment; key indicators of burnout. Results showed significant correlations between individual ways of coping as a moderator between job structure, operationalized by job title, and individual employee burnout adding empirical evidence to the occupational stress literature. Based on the findings, there are implications for theory, research, and practice. For theory and research, the findings suggest the importance of incorporating transactional models in the study of occupational stress. In the area of practice, the findings highlight the importance of enriching jobs, increasing job control, and providing individual-level training related to stress reduction.

La convivialità urbana nei quartieri di Milano, Bologna e Roma. Un'analisi mixed-methods sulle Social Streets

Le Social Street sono gruppi di vicini di casa che vogliono ricreare legami di convivialità avendo notato un indebolimento delle relazioni sociali nei loro quartieri. Nascono come gruppi online, tramite la piattaforma Facebook, per materializzarsi in incontri offline andando a costruire legami conviviali grazie pratiche di socialità, inclusività e gratuità. Questa Tesi ha come obiettivo l’analisi dei profili socio-demografici degli Streeter e dei quartieri coinvolti per comprendere come sia possibile creare convivialità e come la variabile urbana intervenga in questi processi. Inoltre, si vuole comprendere le dinamiche di attaccamento al quartiere, gli interessi portati avanti dagli Streeter, il loro profilo civico e il posizionamento di quest’esperienza rispetto all’associazionismo tradizionale. Per perseguire l’obiettivo della ricerca, sono state studiate le tre città che vedono la maggiore presenza di Social Street: Milano, Bologna, Roma. La ricerca ha previsto sia un’analisi degli Streeter grazie a un questionario online replicato in tutti i contesti. Inoltre, sono state realizzate 131 interviste ad amministratori e fondatori di Social Street e condotte osservazioni etnografiche e netnografiche. I risultati mostrano come gli Streeter siano appartenenti alle classi medio-alte, tra trenta e cinquanta anni, che hanno sperimentato la mobilità tra un quartiere e l’altro o tra diversi contesi nazionali ed internazionali e trovano nelle Social Street un modo per creare legami di vicinato che hanno perso nei loro trasferimenti. Gli stessi quartieri dove si diffondono le Social Street sono agiati e vi è una buona corrispondenza tra Streeter e modello della centralità sociale elaborato da Milbrath (1965) per cui anche la partecipazione civica è molto sentita tra gli aderenti alle Social Street. Il contributo di questa Tesi al dibattito sociologico risiede nell’aver offerto un’analisi empirica di un’azione collettiva a livello urbano, quella delle Social Street, mostrando come vi sia circolarità tra azione e contesto grazie all’azione mutualistica conviviale.

Concepts and methods for efficient decentralized learning in federated settings

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have revolutionized a wide range of applications beyond traditional machine learning and artificial intelligence fields, e.g., computer vision, healthcare, natural language processing and others. At the same time, edge devices have become central in our society, generating an unprecedented amount of data which could be used to train data-hungry models such as DNNs. However, the potentially sensitive or confidential nature of gathered data poses privacy concerns when storing and processing them in centralized locations. To this purpose, decentralized learning decouples model training from the need of directly accessing raw data, by alternating on-device training and periodic communications. The ability of distilling knowledge from decentralized data, however, comes at the cost of facing more challenging learning settings, such as coping with heterogeneous hardware and network connectivity, statistical diversity of data, and ensuring verifiable privacy guarantees. This Thesis proposes an extensive overview of decentralized learning literature, including a novel taxonomy and a detailed description of the most relevant system-level contributions in the related literature for privacy, communication efficiency, data and system heterogeneity, and poisoning defense. Next, this Thesis presents the design of an original solution to tackle communication efficiency and system heterogeneity, and empirically evaluates it on federated settings. For communication efficiency, an original method, specifically designed for Convolutional Neural Networks, is also described and evaluated against the state-of-the-art. Furthermore, this Thesis provides an in-depth review of recently proposed methods to tackle the performance degradation introduced by data heterogeneity, followed by empirical evaluations on challenging data distributions, highlighting strengths and possible weaknesses of the considered solutions. Finally, this Thesis presents a novel perspective on the usage of Knowledge Distillation as a mean for optimizing decentralized learning systems in settings characterized by data heterogeneity or system heterogeneity. Our vision on relevant future research directions close the manuscript.

Empirical ontology design patterns

Knowledge graphs (KGs) and ontologies have been widely adopted for modelling numerous domains. However, understanding the content of an ontology/KG is far from straightforward: existing methods partially address this issue. This thesis is based on the assumption that identifying the Ontology Design Patterns (ODPs) in an ontology or a KG contributes to address this problem. Most times, the reused ODPs are not explicitly annotated, or their reuse is unintentional. Therefore, there is a challenge to automatically identify ODPs in existing ontologies and KGs, which is the main focus of this research work. This thesis analyses the role of ODPs in ontology engineering, through experiences in actual ontology projects, placing this analysis in the context of existing ontology reuse approaches. Moreover, this thesis introduces a novel method for extracting empirical ODPs (EODPs) from ontologies, and a novel method for extracting EODPs from knowledge graphs, whose schemas are implicit. The first method groups the extracted EODPs in clusters: conceptual components. Each conceptual component represents a modelling problem, e.g. representing collections. As EODPs are fragments possibly extracted from different ontologies, some of them will fall in the same cluster, meaning that they are implemented solutions to the same modelling problem. EODPs and conceptual components enable the empirical observation and comparison of modelling solutions to common modelling problems in different ontologies. The second method extracts EODPs from a KG as sets of probabilistic axioms/constraints involving the ontological entities instantiated. These EODPs may support KG inspection and comparison, providing insights on how certain entities are described in a KG. An additional contribution of this thesis is an ontology for annotating ODPs in ontologies and KGs.

Evaluation Of Different Treatment Methods Against Denture Stomatitis: A Randomized Clinical Study.

The aim of this clinical study was to determine the efficacy of Uncaria tomentosa (cat's claw) against denture stomatitis (DS). Fifty patients with DS were randomly assigned into 3 groups to receive 2% miconazole, placebo, or 2% U tomentosa gel. DS level was recorded immediately, after 1 week of treatment, and 1 week after treatment. The clinical effectiveness of each treatment was measured using Newton's criteria. Mycologic samples from palatal mucosa and prosthesis were obtained to determinate colony forming units per milliliter (CFU/mL) and fungal identification at each evaluation period. Candida species were identified with HiCrome Candida and API 20C AUX biochemical test. DS severity decreased in all groups (P < .05). A significant reduction in number of CFU/mL after 1 week (P < .05) was observed for all groups and remained after 14 days (P > .05). C albicans was the most prevalent microorganism before treatment, followed by C tropicalis, C glabrata, and C krusei, regardless of the group and time evaluated. U tomentosa gel had the same effect as 2% miconazole gel. U tomentosa gel is an effective topical adjuvant treatment for denture stomatitis.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Estimated Disability-adjusted Life Years Averted By Long-term Provision Of Long Acting Contraceptive Methods In A Brazilian Clinic.

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.

Evaluation Of The Effect Of Different Methods Of Microabrasion And Polishing On Surface Roughness Of Dental Enamel.

The microabrasion technique of enamel consists of selectively abrading the discolored areas or causing superficial structural changes in a selective way. In microabrasion technique, abrasive products associated with acids are used, and the evaluation of enamel roughness after this treatment, as well as surface polishing, is necessary. This in-vitro study evaluated the enamel roughness after microabrasion, followed by different polishing techniques. Roughness analyses were performed before microabrasion (L1), after microabrasion (L2), and after polishing (L3).Thus, 60 bovine incisive teeth divided into two groups were selected (n=30): G1- 37% phosphoric acid (37%) (Dentsply) and pumice; G2- hydrochloric acid (6.6%) associated with silicon carbide (Opalustre - Ultradent). Thereafter, the groups were divided into three sub-groups (n=10), according to the system of polishing: A - Fine and superfine granulation aluminum oxide discs (SofLex 3M); B - Diamond Paste (FGM) associated with felt discs (FGM); C - Silicone tips (Enhance - Dentsply). A PROC MIXED procedure was applied after data exploratory analysis, as well as the Tukey-Kramer test (5%). No statistical differences were found between G1 and G2 groups. L2 differed statistically from L1 and showed superior amounts of roughness. Differences in the amounts of post-polishing roughness for specific groups (1A, 2B, and 1C) arose, which demonstrated less roughness in L3 and differed statistically from L2 in the polishing system. All products increased enamel roughness, and the effectiveness of the polishing systems was dependent upon the abrasive used.

Effects Of Sterilization Methods On The Physical, Chemical, And Biological Properties Of Silk Fibroin Membranes.

Silk fibroin has been widely explored for many biomedical applications, due to its biocompatibility and biodegradability. Sterilization is a fundamental step in biomaterials processing and it must not jeopardize the functionality of medical devices. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of different sterilization methods in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of dense and porous silk fibroin membranes. Silk fibroin membranes were treated by several procedures: immersion in 70% ethanol solution, ultraviolet radiation, autoclave, ethylene oxide, and gamma radiation, and were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction, tensile strength and in vitro cytotoxicity to Chinese hamster ovary cells. The results indicated that the sterilization methods did not cause perceivable morphological changes in the membranes and the membranes were not toxic to cells. The sterilization methods that used organic solvent or an increased humidity and/or temperature (70% ethanol, autoclave, and ethylene oxide) increased the silk II content in the membranes: the dense membranes became more brittle, while the porous membranes showed increased strength at break. Membranes that underwent sterilization by UV and gamma radiation presented properties similar to the nonsterilized membranes, mainly for tensile strength and FTIR results.

Classification Of Frankfurters By Ft-raman Spectroscopy And Chemometric Methods.

Frankfurters are widely consumed all over the world, and the production requires a wide range of meat and non-meat ingredients. Due to these characteristics, frankfurters are products that can be easily adulterated with lower value meats, and the presence of undeclared species. Adulterations are often still difficult to detect, due the fact that the adulterant components are usually very similar to the authentic product. In this work, FT-Raman spectroscopy was employed as a rapid technique for assessing the quality of frankfurters. Based on information provided by the Raman spectra, a multivariate classification model was developed to identify the frankfurter type. The aim was to study three types of frankfurters (chicken, turkey and mixed meat) according to their Raman spectra, based on the fatty vibrational bands. Classification model was built using partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and the performance model was evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, efficiency and Matthews's correlation coefficient. The PLS-DA models give sensitivity and specificity values on the test set in the ranges of 88%-100%, showing good performance of the classification models. The work shows the Raman spectroscopy with chemometric tools can be used as an analytical tool in quality control of frankfurters.

Mechanical And Photoelastic Analysis Of Four Different Fixation Methods For Mandibular Body Fractures.

The aim of the present study was to compare four methods of fixation in mandibular body fractures. Mechanical and photoelastic tests were performed using polyurethane and photoelastic resin mandibles, respectively. The study groups contained the following: (I), two miniplates of 2.0 mm; (II) one 2.0 mm plate and an Erich arch bar; (III) one 2.4 mm plate and an Erich arch bar, and (IV) one 2.0 mm plate and one 2.4 mm plate. The differences between the mean values were analyzed using Tukey's test, the Mann-Whitney test and the Bonferroni correction. Group II recorded the lowest resistance, followed by groups I, IV and III. The photoelastic test confirmed the increase of tension in group II. The 2.4 mm system board in linear mandibular body fractures provided more resistance and the use of only one 2.0 mm plate in the central area of the mandible created higher tension.