A study of stock market linkages between the US and frontier countries

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.

The survival and stock performance of emerging country firms in the United States

Many firms from emerging markets flocked to developed countries at high cost with hopes of acquiring strategic assets that are difficult to obtain in home countries. Adequate research has focused on the motivations and strategies of emerging country firms' (ECFs') internationalization, while limited studies have explored their survival in advanced economies years after their venturing abroad. Due to the imprinting effect of home country institutions that inhibit their development outside their home market, ECFs are inclined to hire executives with international background and affiliate to world-wide organizations for the purpose of linking up with the global market, embracing multiple perspectives for strategic decisions, and absorbing the knowledge of foreign markets. However, the effects of such orientation on survival are under limited exploration. Motivated by the discussion above, I explore ECFs' survival and stock performance in a developed country (U.S.). Applying population ecology, signaling theory and institutional theory, the dissertation investigates the characteristics of ECFs that survived in the developed country (U.S.), tests the impacts of global orientation on their survival, and examines how global-oriented activities (i.e. joining United Nations Global Compact) affect their stock performance. The dissertation is structured in the form of three empirical essays. The first essay explores and compares different characteristics of ECFs and developed country firms (DCFs) that managed to survive in the U.S. The second essay proposes the concept of global orientation, and tests its influences on ECFs' survival. Employing signaling theory and institutional theory, the third essay investigates stock market reactions to announcements of United Nation Global Compact (UNGC) participation. The dissertation serves to explore the survival of ECFs in the developed country (U.S.) by comparison with DCFs, enriching traditional theories by testing non-traditional arguments in the context of ECFs' foreign operation, and better informing practitioners operating ECFs about ways of surviving in developed countries and improving stockholders' confidence in their future growth.

Resource, Strategies, Location Determinants, And Host Country Location Choice By Emerging Market Firms

The extant literature had studied the determinants of the firms’ location decisions with help of host country characteristics and distances between home and host countries. Firm resources and its internationalization strategies had found limited attention in this literature. To address this gap, the research question in this dissertation was whether and how firms’ resources and internationalization strategies impacted the international location decisions of emerging market firms. To explore the research question, data were hand-collected from Indian software firms on their location decisions taken between April 2000 and March 2009. To analyze the multi-level longitudinal dataset, hierarchical linear modeling was used. The results showed that the internationalization strategies, namely market-seeking or labor-seeking had direct impact on firms’ location decision. This direct relationship was moderated by firm resource which, in case of Indian software firms, was the appraisal at CMMI level-5. Indian software firms located in developed countries with a market-seeking strategy and in emerging markets with a labor-seeking strategy. However, software firms with resource such as CMMI level-5 appraisal, when in a labor-seeking mode, were more likely to locate in a developed country over emerging market than firms without the appraisal. Software firms with CMMI level-5 appraisal, when in market-seeking mode, were more likely to locate in a developed country over an emerging market than firms without the appraisal. It was concluded that the internationalization strategies and resources of companies predicted their location choices, over and above the variables studied in the theoretical field of location determinants.

Reviewing mHealth in developing countries: A stakeholder perspective

Infrastructural deficiencies, limited access to medicare, and shortage of health care workers are just a few of the barriers to health care in developing countries. As a consequence, the burden of disease and its impact on the livelihoods and the economic productivity of people are staggering. mHealth has been extolled as one possible solution to overcoming these challenges, yet discussion of mHealth systems is often limited to specific tasks and user groups. To address this, we adopt a stakeholder perspective and analyze existing research on the mHealth process in developing countries. Specifically, we focus on three key stakeholder groups, i.e. healthcare workers, patients, and system developers. We perform an in-depth analysis of 60 peer-reviewed studies to determine the extent to which different mHealth stakeholder interactions are researched, and to identify high-level themes emerging within these interactions. This analysis illustrates two key gaps in existing mHealth research. First, while interactions involving healthcare workers and/or patients have received significant attention, relatively little research has looked at the role of patient-to-patient interactions. Second, the interactions between system developers and the other stakeholder groups are strikingly under-represented. We conclude by calling for more mHealth research that explicitly addresses these stakeholder interactions.

Chromatographic analysis and survey studies to evaluate the emerging drugs of synthetic cannabinoids in Scotland and Saudi Arabia

Synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists or more commonly known as synthetic cannabinoids (SCs) were originally created to obtain the medicinal value of THC but they are an emerging social problem. SCs are mostly produced coated on herbal materials or in powder form and marketed under a variety of brand names, e.g. “Spice”, “K2”. Despite many SCs becoming controlled under drug legislation, many of them remain legal in some countries around the world. In Scotland, SCs are controlled under the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971 and Psychoactive Substances Act 2016 that only cover a few early SCs. In Saudi Arabia, even fewer are controlled. The picture of the SCs-problem in Scotland is vague due to insufficient prevalence data, particularly that using biological samples. Whilst there is evidence of increasing use of SCs throughout the world, in Saudi Arabia, there is currently no data regarding the use of products containing SCs among Saudi people. Several studies indicate that SCs may cause serious toxicity and impairment to health therefore it is important to understand the scale of use within society. A simple and sensitive method was developed for the simultaneous analysis of 10 parent SCs (JWH-018, JWH-073, JWH-250, JWH-200, AM-1248, UR-144, A-796260, AB-FUBINACA, 5F-AKB-48 and 5F-PB-22) in whole blood and 8 corresponding metabolites (JWH-018 4-OH pentyl, JWH-073 3-OH butyl, JWH-250 4-OH pentyl, AM-2201 4-OH pentyl, JWH-122 5-OH pentyl, JWH-210 5-OH pentyl, 5F-AKB-48 (N-4 OH pentyl), 5F-PB-22 3-carboxyindole)in urine using LLE and LC-MS/MS. The method was validated according to the standard practices for method validation in forensic toxicology (SWGTOX, May 2013). All analytes gave acceptable precision, linearity and recovery for analysing blood and urine samples. The method was applied to 1,496 biological samples, a mixture of whole blood and urine. Blood and/or urine samples were analysed from 114 patients presenting at Accident and Emergency in Glasgow Royal Infirmary, in spring 2014 and JuneDecember 2015. 5F-AKB-48, 5F-PB-22 and MDMB-CHMICA were detected in 9, 7 and 9 cases respectively. 904 urine samples from individuals admitted to/liberated from Scottish prisons over November 2013 were tested for the presence of SCs. 5F-AKB-48 (N-4 OH pentyl) was detected in 10 cases and 5F-PB-22 3-carboxyindole in 3 cases. Blood and urine samples from two post-mortem cases in Scotland with suspected ingestion of SCs were analysed. Both cases were confirmed positive for 5F-AKB-48. A total of 463 urine samples were collected from personnel who presented to the Security Forces Hospital in Ryiadh for workplace drug testing as a requirement for their job during July 2014. The results of the analysis found 2 samples to be positive for 5F-PB-22 3carboxyindole. A further study in Saudi Arabia using a questionnaire was carried out among 3 subpopulations: medical professionals, members of the public in and around smoking cafes and known drug users. With regards to general awareness of Spice products, 16%, 11% and 22% of those participants of medical professionals, members of the public in and around smoking cafes and known drug users, respectively, were aware of the existence of SCs or Spice products. The respondents had an overall average of 4.5% who had a friend who used these Spice products. It is clear from the results obtained in both blood and urine testing and surveys that SCs are being used in both Scotland and Saudi Arabia. The extent of their use is not clear and the data presented here is an initial look into their prevalence. Blood and urine findings suggest changing trends in SC use, moving away from JWH and AM SCs to the newer 5F-AKB-48, 5-F-PB-22 and MDMBCHMICA compounds worldwide. In both countries 5F-PB-22 was detected. These findings clarify how the SCs phenomenon is a worldwide problem and how the information of every country regarding what SCs are seized can help and is not specific for that country. The analytes included in the method were selected due to their apparent availability in both countries, however it is possible that some newer analytes have been used and these would not have been detected. For this reason it is important that methods for testing SCs are updated regularly and evolve with the ever-changing availability of these drugs worldwide. In addition, there is little published literature regarding the concentrations of these drugs found in blood and urine samples and this work goes some way towards understanding these.

Corporate governance in european transition economies: Emerging models

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate on corporate governance models in European transition economies. The paper consists of four parts. After a historic overview of the evolution of corporate governance, the introduction presents various understandings of the corporate governance function and describes current issues in corporate governance. Part two deals with governance systems in the (mainly domestically) privatized former state-owned companies in Central European transition countries, with the main types of company ownership structures, relationships between governing and management functions, and deficiencies in existing governance systems. Part three is dedicated to the analysis of factors that determine the efficiency of the relationship between the corporate governance and management functions in Central European transition economies. It deals with the issue of why the German (continental European) governance model is usually the preferred choice and why the chosen models underperform. In the conclusion the author offers his suggestions on how the Central European transition countries should improve their corporate governance in the future.

Estimating market access in non-GPA countries: A suggested methodology

The WTO’s Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) has data reporting obligations for all its Contracting Parties. Submitting such data promotes transparency in public procurement and also signals tendencies towards discrimination. However, most developing countries, especially emerging economies, are non-members of the GPA and therefore have no comparable data reporting obligations. In most cases, this has led to an absence of any reliable data on these countries’ public purchases, which poses a serious challenge in international negotiations on the subject and in examining the impact of protectionist measures in these countries’ public markets. In this short paper, we attempt to overcome these data challenges by developing a methodology to estimate the size of procurement markets in non-GPA countries as well as foreign market access therein. We also show the results from this methodology for estimating the EU’s access in select emerging economies’ public markets.

The Survival and Stock Performance of Emerging Country Firms in the United States

Many firms from emerging markets flocked to developed countries at high cost with hopes of acquiring strategic assets that are difficult to obtain in home countries. Adequate research has focused on the motivations and strategies of emerging country firms' (ECFs') internationalization, while limited studies have explored their survival in advanced economies years after their venturing abroad. Due to the imprinting effect of home country institutions that inhibit their development outside their home market, ECFs are inclined to hire executives with international background and affiliate to world-wide organizations for the purpose of linking up with the global market, embracing multiple perspectives for strategic decisions, and absorbing the knowledge of foreign markets. However, the effects of such orientation on survival are under limited exploration. Motivated by the discussion above, I explore ECFs’ survival and stock performance in a developed country (U.S.). Applying population ecology, signaling theory and institutional theory, the dissertation investigates the characteristics of ECFs that survived in the developed country (U.S.), tests the impacts of global orientation on their survival, and examines how global-oriented activities (i.e. joining United Nations Global Compact) affect their stock performance. The dissertation is structured in the form of three empirical essays. The first essay explores and compares different characteristics of ECFs and developed country firms (DCFs) that managed to survive in the U.S. The second essay proposes the concept of global orientation, and tests its influences on ECFs’ survival. Employing signaling theory and institutional theory, the third essay investigates stock market reactions to announcements of United Nation Global Compact (UNGC) participation. The dissertation serves to explore the survival of ECFs in the developed country (U.S.) by comparison with DCFs, enriching traditional theories by testing non-traditional arguments in the context of ECFs’ foreign operation, and better informing practitioners operating ECFs about ways of surviving in developed countries and improving stockholders’ confidence in their future growth.

ARIA 2016: Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA—disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally—is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.

Partitioning The Net Effect Of Host Diversity On An Emerging Amphibian Pathogen.

The 'dilution effect' (DE) hypothesis predicts that diverse host communities will show reduced disease. The underlying causes of pathogen dilution are complex, because they involve non-additive (driven by host interactions and differential habitat use) and additive (controlled by host species composition) mechanisms. Here, we used measures of complementarity and selection traditionally employed in the field of biodiversity-ecosystem function (BEF) to quantify the net effect of host diversity on disease dynamics of the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Complementarity occurs when average infection load in diverse host assemblages departs from that of each component species in uniform populations. Selection measures the disproportionate impact of a particular species in diverse assemblages compared with its performance in uniform populations, and therefore has strong additive and non-additive properties. We experimentally infected tropical amphibian species of varying life histories, in single- and multi-host treatments, and measured individual Bd infection loads. Host diversity reduced Bd infection in amphibians through a mechanism analogous to complementarity (sensu BEF), potentially by reducing shared habitat use and transmission among hosts. Additionally, the selection component indicated that one particular terrestrial species showed reduced infection loads in diverse assemblages at the expense of neighbouring aquatic hosts becoming heavily infected. By partitioning components of diversity, our findings underscore the importance of additive and non-additive mechanisms underlying the DE.

Chikungunya In Brazil: An Emerging Challenge.

18

Oropouche Virus Infection And Pathogenesis Is Restricted By Mavs, Irf-3, Irf-7, And Type I Ifn Signaling Pathways In Non-myeloid Cells.

Oropouche virus (OROV) is a member of the Orthobunyavirus genus in the Bunyaviridae family and a prominent cause of insect-transmitted viral disease in Central and South America. Despite its clinical relevance, little is known about OROV pathogenesis. To define the host defense pathways that control OROV infection and disease, we evaluated OROV pathogenesis and immune responses in primary cells and mice that were deficient in the RIG-I-like receptor signaling pathway (MDA5, RIG-I, or MAVS), downstream regulatory transcription factors (IRF-3 or IRF-7), IFN-β, or the receptor for type I IFN signaling (IFNAR). OROV replicated to higher levels in primary fibroblasts and dendritic cells lacking MAVS signaling, the transcription factors IRF-3 and IRF-7, or IFNAR. In mice, deletion of IFNAR, MAVS, or IRF-3 and IRF-7 resulted in uncontrolled OROV replication, hypercytokinemia, extensive liver damage, and death whereas wild-type (WT) congenic animals failed to develop disease. Unexpectedly, mice with a selective deletion of IFNAR on myeloid cells (CD11c Cre(+) Ifnar(f/f) or LysM Cre(+) Ifnar(f/f)) did not sustain enhanced disease with OROV or La Crosse virus, a closely related encephalitic orthobunyavirus. In bone marrow chimera studies, recipient irradiated Ifnar(-/-) mice reconstituted with WT hematopoietic cells sustained high levels of OROV replication and liver damage, whereas WT mice reconstituted with Ifnar(-/-) bone marrow were resistant to disease. Collectively, these results establish a dominant protective role for MAVS, IRF-3 and IRF-7, and IFNAR in restricting OROV virus infection and tissue injury, and suggest that IFN signaling in non-myeloid cells contributes to the host defense against orthobunyaviruses. Oropouche virus (OROV) is an emerging arthropod-transmitted orthobunyavirus that causes episodic outbreaks of a debilitating febrile illness in humans in countries of South and Central America. The continued expansion of the range and number of its arthropod vectors increases the likelihood that OROV will spread into new regions. At present, the pathogenesis of OROV in humans or other vertebrate animals remains poorly understood. To define cellular mechanisms of control of OROV infection, we performed infection studies in a series of primary cells and mice that were deficient in key innate immune genes involved in pathogen recognition and control. Our results establish that a MAVS-dependent type I IFN signaling pathway has a dominant role in restricting OROV infection and pathogenesis in vivo.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Incidence and risk factors of aplastic anemia in Latin American countries: the LATIN case-control study

Background Associations between aplastic anemia and numerous drugs, pesticides and chemicals have been reported. However, at least 50% of the etiology of aplastic anemia remains unexplained. Design and Methods This was a case-control, multicenter, multinational study, designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and aplastic anemia. The cases were patients with diagnosis of aplastic anemia confirmed through biopsy or bone marrow aspiration, selected through an active search of clinical laboratories, hematology clinics and medical records. The controls did not have either aplastic anemia or chronic diseases. A total of 224 patients with aplastic anemia were included in the study, each case was paired with four controls, according to sex, age group, and hospital where the case was first seen. Information was collected on demographic data, medical history, laboratory tests, medications, and other potential risk factors prior to diagnosis. Results The incidence of aplastic anemia was 1.6 cases per million per year. Higher rates of benzene exposure (>= 30 exposures per year) were associated with a greater risk of aplastic anemia (odds ratio, OR: 4.2; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.82-9.82). Individuals exposed to chloramphenicol in the previous year had an adjusted OR for aplastic anemia of 8.7 (CI: 0.87-87.93) and those exposed to azithromycin had an adjusted OR of 11.02 (CI 1.14-108.02). Conclusions The incidence of aplastic anemia in Latin America countries is low. Although the research study centers had a high coverage of health services, the underreporting of cases of aplastic anemia in selected regions can be discussed. Frequent exposure to benzene-based products increases the risk for aplastic anemia. Few associations with specific drugs were found, and it is likely that some of these were due to chance alone.