Comparative phylogeography of three rainforest-restricted lizards from mid-east Queensland

Several small isolates of rainforest situated on the central eastern coast of Australia are home to a rich herpetofauna, including four endemic species of leaftail geckos (Phyllurus spp.) and two skinks (Eulamprus spp.). To examine the extent and geographic pattern of historical subdivision among isolates, we assayed mtDNA variation in two species endemic to rainforests of this region (Phyllurus ossa and Eulamprus amplus) and, for comparison, a more widespread and less specialised lizard, Carlia rhomboidalis. There is a clear genetic signature of historical changes in population size and distribution in P. ossa that is consistent with Pleistocene (or earlier) rainforest contraction and subsequent expansion. Although more pronounced in the gecko, phylogeographic structure was congruent between E. amplus and P. ossa. In contrast to the saxicolous, rainforest-restricted P. ossa and E. amplus, the rainforest-generalist species, C. rhomboidalis, does not display strong geographic population structure. The differences in genetic population structure exhibited by the three species are consistent with species-specific differences in ecology.

An evaluation of two indices of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) abundance in an arid environment

The suitability of spotlight counts to index red fox abundance was assessed in an arid environment through a comparison with a scat deposition index (active attractant). In most cases there was a high degree of correlation between the two indices, suggesting that the spotlight counts were accurately documenting fluctuations in population size. However, the precision of the spotlight index was often low (c.v. = 0.07-0.46), suggesting that the technique may not allow the statistical detection of small changes in abundance. During periods when there was an influx of new individuals into the population, the seasonal scat index displayed a three-month time lag in documenting abundance while foxes accustomed themselves to the presence of the regular food supply. The level of precision of the scat index was also found to be relatively low (c.v. = 0.21-0.48). Nevertheless, further refinements of this technique may produce a suitable measure of fox abundance.

Impact numbers in health policy decisions

Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

Mutation accumulation in Tetrahymena

Background - The rate and fitness effects of mutations are key in understanding the evolution of every species. Traditionally, these parameters are estimated in mutation accumulation experiments where replicate lines are propagated in conditions that allow mutations to randomly accumulate without the purging effect of natural selection. These experiments have been performed with many model organisms but we still lack empirical estimates of the rate and effects of mutation in the protists. Results - We performed a mutation accumulation (MA) experiment in Tetrahymena thermophila, a species that can reproduce sexually and asexually in nature, and measured both the mean decline and variance increase in fitness of 20 lines. The results obtained with T. thermophila were compared with T. pyriformis that is an obligate asexual species. We show that MA lines of T. thermophila go to extinction at a rate of 1.25 clonal extinctions per bottleneck. In contrast, populations of T. pyriformis show a much higher resistance to extinction. Variation in gene copy number is likely to be a key factor in explaining these results, and indeed we show that T. pyriformis has a higher mean copy number per cell than T. thermophila. From fitness measurements during the MA experiment, we infer a rate of mutation to copy number variation of 0.0333 per haploid MAC genome of T. thermophila and a mean effect against copy number variation of 0.16. A strong effect of population size in the rate of fitness decline was also found, consistent with the increased power of natural selection. Conclusions - The rate of clonal extinction measured for T. thermophila is characteristic of a mutational degradation and suggests that this species must undergo sexual reproduction to avoid the deleterious effects detected in the laboratory experiments. We also suggest that an increase in chromosomal copy number associated with the phenotypic assortment of amitotic divisions can provide an alternative mechanism to escape the deleterious effect of random chromosomal copy number variation in species like T. pyriformis that lack the resetting mechanism of sexual reproduction. Our results are relevant to the understanding of cell line longevity and senescence in ciliates.

Integrated Management of Childhood Illness: efficiency of primary health in Northeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE: The Integrated Management of Childhood Illness is a strategy designed to address major causes of child mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the strategy on the quality of child health care provided at primary facilities. METHODS: Child health quality of care and costs were compared in four states in Northeastern Brazil, in 2001. There were studied 48 health facilities considered to have had stable strategy implementation at least two years before the start of study, with 48 matched comparison facilities in the same states. A single measure of correct management of sick children was used to assess care provided to all sick children. Costs included all resources at the national, state, local and facility levels associated with child health care. RESULTS: Facilities providing strategy-based care had significantly better management of sick children at no additional cost to municipalities relative to the comparison municipalities. At strategy facilities 72% of children were correctly managed compared with 56% in comparison facilities (p=0.001). The cost per child managed correctly was US$13.20 versus US$21.05 in the strategy and comparison municipalities, respectively, after standardization for population size. CONCLUSIONS: The strategy improves the efficiency of primary facilities in Northeastern Brazil. It leads to better health outcomes at no extra cost.

Leis de potência em sistemas naturais e artificiais

A Lei de Potência é uma particularidade de um sistema não linear, revelando um sistema complexo próximo da auto-organização. Algumas características de sistemas naturais e artificiais, tais como dimensão populacional das cidades, valor dos rendimentos pessoais, frequência de ocorrência de palavras em textos e magnitude de sismos, seguem distribuições do tipo Lei de Potência. Estas distribuições indicam que pequenas ocorrências são muito comuns e grandes ocorrências são raras, podendo porém verificar-se com razoável probabilidade. A finalidade deste trabalho visa a identificação de fenómenos associados às Leis de Potência. Mostra-se o comportamento típico destes fenómenos, com os dados retirados dos vários casos de estudo e com a ajuda de uma meta-análise. As Leis de Potência em sistemas naturais e artificiais apresentam uma proximidade a um padrão, quando os valores são normalizados (frequências relativas) para dar origem a um meta-gráfico.

Pulmonary tuberculosis in Continental Portugal 2000-2010: temporal trends clustering as a tool for control evaluation

Clustering analysis is a useful tool to detect and monitor disease patterns and, consequently, to contribute for an effective population disease management. Portugal has the highest incidence of tuberculosis in the European Union (in 2012, 21.6 cases per 100.000 inhabitants), although it has been decreasing consistently. Two critical PTB (Pulmonary Tuberculosis) areas, metropolitan Oporto and metropolitan Lisbon regions, were previously identified through spatial and space-time clustering for PTB incidence rate and risk factors. Identifying clusters of temporal trends can further elucidate policy makers about municipalities showing a faster or a slower TB control improvement.

An agent-based simulator to estimate domestic energy use

Throughout recent years, there has been an increase in the population size, as well as a fast economic growth, which has led to an increase of the energy demand that comes mainly from fossil fuels. In order to reduce the ecological footprint, governments have implemented sustainable measures and it is expected that by 2035 the energy produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar would be responsible for one-third of the energy produced globally. However, since the energy produced from renewable sources is governed by the availability of the respective primary energy source there is often a mismatch between production and demand, which could be solved by adding flexibility on the demand side through demand response (DR). DR programs influence the end-user electricity usage by changing its cost along the time. Under this scenario the user needs to estimate the energy demand and on-site production in advance to plan its energy demand according to the energy price. This work focuses on the development of an agent-based electrical simulator, capable of: (a) estimating the energy demand and on-site generation with a 1-min time resolution for a 24-h period, (b) calculating the energy price for a given scenario, (c) making suggestions on how to maximize the usage of renewable energy produced on-site and to lower the electricity costs by rescheduling the use of certain appliances. The results show that this simulator allows reducing the energy bill by 11% and almost doubling the use of renewable energy produced on-site.

The occurrence of the Asian Clam Corbicula fluminea in the lowe amazon basin

This paper records for the first time the presence of Corbicula fluminea (Philipi, 1844) in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. This exotic bivalve was found in localities on the Amazonas, Pará and Tocantins rivers. Density and population size structure were measured in some localities. Mean density is between 6.66 and 7.3 individuals m-2. Population size structure and the dates of the first records suggest that the introductions may have occurred between 1997 and 1998. The introductions may have been mediated by ocean-going vessels visiting the ports of Manaus and Belém. The potential impact of the invasion on native freshwater bivalves is discussed along with the need for monitoring and prevention of further introductions of non-indigenous bivalves in Brazil.

On the weights of nations: assigning voting weights in a heterogenous union

Consider a voting procedure where countries, states, or districts comprising a union each elect representatives who then participate in later votes at the union level on their behalf. The countries, provinces, and states may vary in their populations and composition. If we wish to maximize the total expected utility of all agents in the union, how to weight the votes of the representatives of the different countries, states or districts at the union level? We provide a simple characterization of the efficient voting rule in terms of the weights assigned to different districts and the voting threshold (how large a qualified majority is needed to induce change versus the status quo). Next, in the context of a model of the correlation structure of agents preferences, we analyze how voting weights relate to the population size of a country. We then analyze the voting weights in Council of the European Union under the Nice Treaty and the recently proposed constitution, and contrast them under different versions of our model.

A Model of ethnic conflict

We present a model of conflict, in which discriminatory government policy or social intolerance is responsive to various forms of ethnic activism, including violence. It is this perceived responsiveness -captured by the probability that the government gives in and accepts a proponed change in ethnic policy- that induces individuals to mobilize in support for their cause. Yet, mobilization is costly and demonstrators have to be compensated accordingly. Individuals have to weigh their ethnic radicalism with their material well-being to determine the size of their money contribution to the cause. Our main results are: (i) a one-sided increase in radicalism or in population size increases conflict; (ii) a one-sided increase in income has ambiguous effects depending on the elasticity of contributions to income; (iii) an increase in within-group inequality increases conflict; and (iv) an increase in the correlation between ethnic radicalism and inequality also increases conflict.

Labor supply response to international migration and remittances in the Republic of Haiti

The Republic of Haiti is the prime international remittances recipient country in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region relative to its gross domestic product (GDP). The downside of this observation may be that this country is also the first exporter of skilled workers in the world by population size. The present research uses a zero-altered negative binomial (with logit inflation) to model households' international migration decision process, and endogenous regressors' Amemiya Generalized Least Squares method (instrumental variable Tobit, IV-Tobit) to account for selectivity and endogeneity issues in assessing the impact of remittances on labor market outcomes. Results are in line with what has been found so far in this literature in terms of a decline of labor supply in the presence of remittances. However, the impact of international remittances does not seem to be important in determining recipient households' labor participation behavior, particularly for women.

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by nding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this nding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may t reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncation point. In particular, we look at US Census data and apply a recursive-truncation approach to estimate Zipf's Law and a non-parametric alternative test where we consider each possible truncation point of the distribution of all cities. Results con rm the sensitivity of results to the truncation point. Moreover, repeating the analysis over simulated data con rms the di culty of distinguishing a Pareto tail from the tail of a log-normal and, in turn, identifying the city size distribution as a false or a weak Pareto law.

The haemoculture of Trypanosoma minasense chagas, 1908

Trypanosoma minasense was isolated for the first time in blood axenic culture from a naturally infected marmoset, Callithrix penicillata, from Brazil. The parasite grew profusely in an overlay of Roswell Park Memorial Institute medium plus 20% foetal bovine serum, on Novy, McNeal and Nicolle medium (NNN) , at 27°C, with a peak around 168 hr. The morphometry of cultural forms of T. minasense, estimates of cell population size and comparative growth in four different media overlays always with NNN, were studied. The infectivity of cultural forms to marmosets (C. penicillata and C. jacchus) and transformation of epimastigotes into metacyclic-like forms in axenic culture in the presence of chitin derivates (chitosan) were evaluated.

Caracterització i conservació d’una població de tortuga de rierol (Mauremys Leprosa) a l’ein del riu Llobregat al terme d’Abrera

S'ha estudiat una població de tortuga de rierol (Mauremys leprosa) present al curs principal del riu Llobregat, al seu pas pel municipi d'Abrera (Baix Llobregat). El tram té una longitud de 4.140 metres de recorregut sinuós, inclòs a l'EIN Riu Llobregat, amb predomini d'albaredes i pollancredes. S'ha caracteritzat el tram de riu segons el tipus de secció que presenta al llarg de l'àrea d'estudi. L'activitat de les tortugues comprèn de mitjans de febrer a mitjans de novembre, sense que s'hagi detectat una disminució a l'estiu. L'ús de l'espai no és uniforme amb una marcada preferència per trams del riu amb una certa fondària i velocitat de l'aigua alentida. S’han capturat 68 tortugues de rierol mitjançant nanses de pesca adaptades i, un cop marcades, s'han alliberat al mateix lloc. Per a cada animal es van obtenir les dades biomètriques i es va determinar el sexe. Mitjançant el mètode de captura-recaptura s'ha estimat la mida de la població en 100 ± 11 individus. La ràtio de sexes de la població és de 2:1 a favor dels mascles. La distribució de classes d'edats permet comprovar que la població està ben estructurada. No s'ha comprovat la reproducció, tot i que el nombre de femelles reproductores és elevat. La falta de captures de nounats i d’individus d'un hivern d’edat, i el baix nombre de juvenils capturats fa pensar que la taxa de reclutament és baixa. La mobilitat dels animals aigües amunt està limitada per la presència de dos assuts a l'àrea d'estudi, la qual cosa compromet la connectivitat de la població dins i fora de l'àrea d'estudi. També s'ha detectat la presència de tortuga de Florida (Trachemys scripta spp.) sense que s'hagi observat cap interacció entre ambdues espècies. Es proposen un seguit de mesures per afavorir la conservació de la tortuga de rierol.