A model of osteoporosis impact in Switzerland 2000-2020

The aim of our study was to develop a modeling framework suitable to quantify the incidence, absolute number and economic impact of osteoporosis-attributable hip, vertebral and distal forearm fractures, with a particular focus on change over time, and with application to the situation in Switzerland from 2000 to 2020. A Markov process model was developed and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. A demographic scenario provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and various Swiss and international data sources were used as model inputs. Demographic and epidemiologic input parameters were reproduced correctly, confirming the internal validity of the model. The proportion of the Swiss population aged 50 years or over will rise from 33.3% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020. At the total population level, osteoporosis-attributable incidence will rise from 1.16 to 1.54 per 1,000 person-years in the case of hip fracture, from 3.28 to 4.18 per 1,000 person-years in the case of radiographic vertebral fracture, and from 0.59 to 0.70 per 1,000 person-years in the case of distal forearm fracture. Osteoporosis-attributable hip fracture numbers will rise from 8,375 to 11,353, vertebral fracture numbers will rise from 23,584 to 30,883, and distal forearm fracture numbers will rise from 4,209 to 5,186. Population-level osteoporosis-related direct medical inpatient costs per year will rise from 713.4 million Swiss francs (CHF) to CHF946.2 million. These figures correspond to 1.6% and 2.2% of Swiss health care expenditures in 2000. The modeling framework described can be applied to a wide variety of settings. It can be used to assess the impact of new prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies. In Switzerland incidences of osteoporotic hip, vertebral and distal forearm fracture will rise by 33%, 27%, and 19%, respectively, between 2000 and 2020, if current prevention and treatment patterns are maintained. Corresponding absolute fracture numbers will rise by 36%, 31%, and 23%. Related direct medical inpatient costs are predicted to increase by 33%; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainty due to limited availability of input data.

Explaining Emergence and Consequences of Specific Formal Controls in IS Outsourcing – A Process-View

IS outsourcing projects often fail to achieve project goals. To inhibit this failure, managers need to design formal controls that are tailored to the specific contextual demands. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of IS outsourcing projects makes the design of such specific formal controls at the outset of a project challenging. Hence, the process of translating high-level project goals into specific formal controls becomes crucial for success or failure of IS outsourcing projects. Based on a comparative case study of four IS outsourcing projects, our study enhances current understanding of such translation processes and their consequences by developing a process model that explains the success or failure to achieve high-level project goals as an outcome of two unique translation patterns. This novel process-based explanation for how and why IS outsourcing projects succeed or fail has important implications for control theory and IS project escalation literature.

Invisible social control as predictor of daily negative affect and smoking after a self-set quit date

The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to increased psychological distress but also to better health practices. However, findings are inconsistent, and recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i. e., invisible). Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible control on daily negative affect and smoking have been limited. Using daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control was associated with negative affect and smoking. Overall, 100 smokers (72.0 % men, age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their nonsmoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days, reporting received and provided social control, negative affect, and daily smoking. We found in multilevel analyses of the within-person process that on days with higher-than-average invisible control, smokers reported more negative affect and fewer cigarettes smoked. Findings are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control increased daily negative affect and simultaneously reduced smoking at the within-person level.

The dual impact of gender and the influence of timing of parenthood on men’s and women’s career development: Longitudinal findings

This study investigated the impact of gender, the gender-related self-concept (agency and communion), and the timing of parenthood on objective career success of 1,015 highly educated professionals. Hypotheses derived from a dual-impact model of gender and career-related processes were tested in a 5-wave longitudinal study over a time span of 10 years starting with participants’ career entry. In line with our hypotheses we found that the communal component of the gender self-concept had an impact on parenthood, and the agentic component influenced work hours and objective career success (salary, status) of both women and men. Parenthood had a negative direct influence on women’s work hours and a negative indirect influence on women’s objective career success. Women who had their first child around career entry were relatively least successful over the observation period. Men’s career success was independent of parenthood. Sixty-five percent of variance in women’s career success and 33% of variance in men’s career success was explained by the factors analyzed here. Mothers with partners working full time reduced their work hours more than mothers with partners not working full time. A test for a possible reverse influence of career success on the decision to become a parent revealed no effect for men and equivocal effects for women. We conclude that the transition to parenthood still is a crucial factor for women’s career development both from an external gender perspective (expectations, gender roles) and from an internal perspective (gender-related self-concept).

The Emergence of Formal Control Specificity in Information Systems Outsourcing: A Process-View

Information systems (IS) outsourcing projects often fail to achieve initial goals. To avoid project failure, managers need to design formal controls that meet the specific contextual demands of the project. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of IS outsourcing projects makes it difficult to design such specific formal controls at the outset of a project. It is hence crucial to translate high-level project goals into specific formal controls during the course of a project. This study seeks to understand the underlying patterns of such translation processes. Based on a comparative case study of four outsourced software development projects, we inductively develop a process model that consists of three unique patterns. The process model shows that the performance implications of emergent controls with higher specificity depend on differences in the translation process. Specific formal controls have positive implications for goal achievement if only the stakeholder context is adapted, while they are negative for goal achievement if in the translation process tasks are unintendedly adapted. In the latter case projects incrementally drift away from their initial direction. Our findings help to better understand control dynamics in IS outsourcing projects. We contribute to a process theoretic understanding of IS outsourcing governance and we derive implications for control theory and the IS project escalation literature.

A systematic mapping study on the open source software development process.

Abstract?Background: There is no globally accepted open source software development process to define how open source software is developed in practice. A process description is important for coordinating all the software development activities involving both people and technology. Aim: The research question that this study sets out to answer is: What activities do open source software process models contain? The activity groups on which it focuses are Concept Exploration, Software Requirements, Design, Maintenance and Evaluation. Method: We conduct a systematic mapping study (SMS). A SMS is a form of systematic literature review that aims to identify and classify available research papers concerning a particular issue. Results: We located a total of 29 primary studies, which we categorized by the open source software project that they examine and by activity types (Concept Exploration, Software Requirements, Design, Maintenance and Evaluation). The activities present in most of the open source software development processes were Execute Tests and Conduct Reviews, which belong to the Evaluation activities group. Maintenance is the only group that has primary studies addressing all the activities that it contains. Conclusions: The primary studies located by the SMS are the starting point for analyzing the open source software development process and proposing a process model for this community. The papers in our paper pool that describe a specific open source software project provide more regarding our research question than the papers that talk about open source software development without referring to a specific open source software project.

Guidance for the development of accessibility evaluation tools following the Unified Software Development Process

Automated and semi-automated accessibility evaluation tools are key to streamline the process of accessibility assessment, and ultimately ensure that software products, contents, and services meet accessibility requirements. Different evaluation tools may better fit different needs and concerns, accounting for a variety of corporate and external policies, content types, invocation methods, deployment contexts, exploitation models, intended audiences and goals; and the specific overall process where they are introduced. This has led to the proliferation of many evaluation tools tailored to specific contexts. However, tool creators, who may be not familiar with the realm of accessibility and may be part of a larger project, lack any systematic guidance when facing the implementation of accessibility evaluation functionalities. Herein we present a systematic approach to the development of accessibility evaluation tools, leveraging the different artifacts and activities of a standardized development process model (the Unified Software Development Process), and providing templates of these artifacts tailored to accessibility evaluation tools. The work presented specially considers the work in progress in this area by the W3C/WAI Evaluation and Report Working Group (ERT WG)

Ethnogenesis and Craniofacial Change in Japan from the Perspective of Nonmetric Traits

To examine population affinities in light of the ‘dual structure model’, frequencies of 21 nonmetric cranial traits were analyzed in 17 prehistoric to recent samples from Japan and five from continental northeast Asia. Eight bivariate plots, each representing a different bone or region of the skull, as well as cluster analysis of 21-trait mean measures of divergence using multidimensional scaling and additive tree techniques, revealed good discrimination between the Jomon-Ainu indigenous lineage and that of the immigrants who arrived from continental Asia after 300 BC. In Hokkaido, in agreement with historical records, Ainu villages of Hidaka province were least, and those close to the Japan Sea coast were most, hybridized with Wajin. In the central islands, clines were identified among Wajin skeletal samples whereby those from Kyushu most resembled continental northeast Asians, while those from the northernmost prefectures of Tohoku apparently retained the strongest indigenous heritage. In the more southerly prefectures of Tohoku, stronger traces of Jomon ancestry prevailed in the cohort born during the latest Edo period than in the one born after 1870. Thus, it seems that increased inter-regional mobility and gene flow following the Meiji Restoration initiated the most recent episode in the long process of demic diffusion that has helped to shape craniofacial change in Japan.

Heterogeneous model for gas transport in carbon molecular sieves

A dual resistance model with distribution of either barrier or pore diffusional activation energy is proposed in this work for gas transport in carbon molecular sieve (CMS) micropores. This is a novel approach in which the equilibrium is homogeneous, but the kinetics is heterogeneous. The model seems to provide a possible explanation for the concentration dependence of the thermodynamically corrected barrier and pore diffusion coefficients observed in previous studies from this laboratory on gas diffusion in CMS.(1.2) The energy distribution is assumed to follow the gamma distribution function. It is shown that the energy distribution model can fully capture the behavior described by the empirical model established in earlier studies to account for the concentration dependence of thermodynamically corrected barrier and pore diffusion coefficients. A methodology is proposed for extracting energy distribution parameters, and it is further shown that the extracted energy distribution parameters can effectively predict integral uptake and column breakthrough profiles over a wide range of operating pressures.

On minimal models of process systems

Minimal representations are known to have no redundant elements, and are therefore of great importance. Based on the notions of performance and size indices and measures for process systems, the paper proposes conditions for a process model being minimal in a set of functionally equivalent models with respect to a size norm. Generalized versions of known procedures to obtain minimal process models for a given modelling goal, model reduction based on sensitivity analysis and incremental model building are proposed and discussed. The notions and procedures are illustrated and compared on a simple example, that of a simple nonlinear fermentation process with different modelling goals and on a case study of a heat exchanger modelling. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of two-stage anaerobic digestion using the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1)

The aim of the study presented was to implement a process model to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a pilot-scale process for anaerobic two-stage digestion of sewage sludge. The model implemented was initiated to support experimental investigations of the anaerobic two-stage digestion process. The model concept implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB(TM)/Simulink(R) is a derivative of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) that has been developed by the IWA task group for mathematical modelling of anaerobic processes. In the present study the original model concept has been adapted and applied to replicate a two-stage digestion process. Testing procedures, including balance checks and 'benchmarking' tests were carried out to verify the accuracy of the implementation. These combined measures ensured a faultless model implementation without numerical inconsistencies. Parameters for both, the thermophilic and the mesophilic process stage, have been estimated successfully using data from lab-scale experiments described in literature. Due to the high number of parameters in the structured model, it was necessary to develop a customised procedure that limited the range of parameters to be estimated. The accuracy of the optimised parameter sets has been assessed against experimental data from pilot-scale experiments. Under these conditions, the model predicted reasonably well the dynamic behaviour of a two-stage digestion process in pilot scale. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive modelling and the behaviour genetics of reading

While it is well known that reading is highly heritable, less has been understood about the bases of these genetic influences. In this paper, we review the research that we have been conducting in recent years to examine genetic and environmental influences on the particular reading processes specified in the dual-route cognitive model of reading. We argue that a detailed understanding of the role of genetic factors in reading acquisition requires the delineation and measurement of precise phenotypes, derived from well-articulated models of the reading process. We report evidence for independent genetic influences on the lexical and nonlexical reading processes represented in the dual-route model, based on studies of children with particular subtypes of dyslexia, and on univariate and multivariate genetic modelling of reading performance in the normally reading population.

A framework of issues in large process modeling projects

As process management projects have increased in size due to globalised and company-wide initiatives, a corresponding growth in the size of process modeling projects can be observed. Despite advances in languages, tools and methodologies, several aspects of these projects have been largely ignored by the academic community. This paper makes a first contribution to a potential research agenda in this field by defining the characteristics of large-scale process modeling projects and proposing a framework of related issues. These issues are derived from a semi -structured interview and six focus groups conducted in Australia, Germany and the USA with enterprise and modeling software vendors and customers. The focus groups confirm the existence of unresolved problems in business process modeling projects. The outcomes provide a research agenda which directs researchers into further studies in global process management, process model decomposition and the overall governance of process modeling projects. It is expected that this research agenda will provide guidance to researchers and practitioners by focusing on areas of high theoretical and practical relevance.

Model driven distribution of collaborative business processes

In this paper, we present a top down approach for integrated process modelling and distributed process execution. The integrated process model can be utilized for global monitoring and visualization and distributed process models for local execution. Our main focus in this paper is the presentation of the approach to support automatic generation and linking of distributed process models from an integrated process definition.

The practice and process of delivering integration through strategic planning

This paper explains how strategic planning is able to deliver strategic integration within organizations. While communication and participation within planning processes are perceived to have an integrative effect, we argue that these effects are unlikely to arise simply from bringing people together. Rather, we suggest that, given the varying interests of actors in different business units, integration will only arise from active negotiations and compromises between these actors. The paper is based upon a case of strategic planning in a multinational that was attempting to develop greater strategic integration across Europe. Drawing upon an activity theory framework, we examine how a common strategy emerges over time through modifications to the planning process and to different actors’ roles within it. The findings are used to develop a process model that shows how different business unit characteristics of planning experience and relative power shape different experiences of communication and participation activities and different processes for achieving integration. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this process model contributes to the literature on strategic planning, political processes of strategy-making, and strategy-as-practice.