On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment

Despite the importance of supplier inducement and brand loyalty inthe drug purchasing process, little empirical evidence is to be foundwith regard to the influence that these factors exert on patients decisions. Under the new scenario of easier access to information,patients are becoming more demanding and even go as far asquestioning their physicians prescription. Furthermore, newregulation also encourages patients to adopt an active role in thedecision between brand-name and generic drugs. Using a statedpreference model based on a choice survey, I have found evidenceof how significant physicians prescription and pharmacists recommendation become throughout the drug purchase process and,to what extent, brand loyalty influences the final decision. Asfar as we are aware, this paper is the first to explicitlytake consumers preferences into account rather than focusingon the behavior of health professionals.

Transplanted beta cell response to increased metabolic demand. Changes in beta cell replication and mass

We determined the capacity of transplanted beta cells to modify their replication and mass when stimulated by changes in metabolic demand. Five groups of Lewis rats were studied: group 1 (Tx-Px) had a 95% pancreatectomy 14 d after transplantation of 500 islets; group 2 (Px-Tx) had a 95% pancreatectomy 14 d before transplantation of 500 islets; group 3 (Tx) was transplanted with 500 islets; group 4 (Px) had a 95% pancreatectomy; and group 5 (normal) was neither transplanted nor pancreatectomized. Blood glucose was normal in Tx-Px and Tx groups at all times. Px-Tx and Px groups developed severe hyperglycemia after pancreatectomy that was corrected in Px-Tx group in 83% of rats 28 d after transplantation. Replication of transplanted beta cells increased in Tx-Px (1.15 +/- 0.12%) and Px-Tx (0.85 +/- 0.12%) groups, but not in Tx group (0.64 +/- 0.07%) compared with normal pancreatic beta cells (0.38 +/- 0.05%) (P < 0.001). Mean beta cell size increased in Tx-Px (311 +/- 14 microns2) and Px-Tx (328 +/- 13 microns2) groups compared with Tx (252 +/- 12 microns2) and normal (239 +/- 9 microns2) groups (P < 0.001). Transplanted beta cell mass increased in Tx-Px (1.87 +/- 0.51 mg) and Px-Tx (1.55 +/- 0.21 mg) groups compared with Tx group (0.78 +/- 0.17 mg) (P < 0.05). In summary, changes in transplanted beta cells prevented the development of hyperglycemia in Tx-Px rats. Transplanted beta cells responded to increased metabolic demand increasing their beta cell mass.

Linking Real Time and Location in Scheduling Demand-Responsive Transit, September 1996

The role of rural demand-responsive transit is changing, and with that change is coming an increasing need for technology. As long as rural transit was limited to a type of social service transportation for a specific set of clients who primarily traveled in groups to common meal sites, work centers for the disabled, or clinics in larger communities, a preset calendar augmented by notes on a yellow legal pad was sufficient to develop schedules. Any individual trips were arranged at least 24 to 48 hours ahead of time and were carefully scheduled the night before in half-hour or twenty-minute windows by a dispatcher who knew every lane in the service area. Since it took hours to build the schedule, any last-minute changes could wreak havoc with the plans and raise the stress level in the dispatch office. Nevertheless, given these parameters, a manual scheduling system worked for a small demand-responsive operation.

Rise in plasma lactate concentrations with psychosocial stress: a possible sign of cerebral energy demand.

OBJECTIVE: It is known that exogenous lactate given as an i.v. energy infusion is able to counteract a neuroglycopenic state that developed during psychosocial stress. It is unknown, however, whether the brain under stressful conditions can induce a rise in plasma lactate to satisfy its increased needs during stress. Since lactate is i) an alternative cerebral energy substrate to glucose and ii) its plasmatic concentration is influenced by the sympathetic nervous system, the present study aimed at investigating whether plasma lactate concentrations increase with psychosocial stress in humans. METHODS: 30 healthy young men participated in two sessions (stress induced by the Trier Social Stress Test and a non-stress control session). Blood samples were frequently taken to assess plasma lactate concentrations and stress hormone profiles. RESULTS: Plasma lactate increased 47% during psychosocial stress (from 0.9 ± 0.05 to 1.4 ± 0.1 mmol/l; interaction time × stress intervention: F = 19.7, p < 0.001). This increase in lactate concentrations during stress was associated with an increase in epinephrine (R(2) = 0.221, p = 0.02) and ACTH concentrations (R(2) = 0.460, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Plasma lactate concentrations increase during acute psychosocial stress in humans. This finding suggests the existence of a demand mechanism that functions to allocate an additional source of energy from the body towards the brain, which we refer to as 'cerebral lactate demand'.

NUTRIENT DEMAND BY THE CARROT CROP IS INFLUENCED BY THE CULTIVAR

Farmers must carefully choose the cultivar to be grown for a successful carrot crop. The yield potential of the cultivar may influence nutrient demand and should be known to plan for fertilization application. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cultivar effect on carrot yield and on the nutrient content and quantities allocated to leaves and roots. Three experiments were set up in two crop seasons in Rio Paranaíba, MG, Brazil. In the first season, typical summer, 10 summer cultivars were sown. In the second season, summer-winter (transition), two experiments were set up, one with summer cultivars and the other with winter cultivars. The treatments consisted of the carrot cultivars distributed in randomized blocks with four replications. Fresh and dry matter of the roots and leaves was quantified. Yield was calculated based on fresh matter of the roots. The nutrient content in leaves and roots was determined at the time of harvest. These contents and the dry matter production of roots and leaves were used to calculate nutrient uptake and export. The greatest average for total and commercial yield occurred in the crop under summer conditions. Extraction of N and K for most of the cultivars in the three experiments went beyond the amounts applied through fertilizers. Thus, there was contribution of nutrients from the soil to obtain the yields observed. However, the amount of P taken up was considerably less than that applied. This implies that soil P fertility will increase after cropping. The crop season and the cultivars influenced yield, nutrient content in the leaves and roots, and extraction and export of nutrients by the carrot crop.

Less Risk, More Effort : Demand Risk Allocation in Incomplete Contracts

This article investigates the allocation of demand risk within an incomplete contract framework. We consider an incomplete contractual relationship between a public authority and a private provider (i.e. a public-private partnership), in which the latter invests in non-verifiable cost-reducing efforts and the former invests in non-verifiable adaptation efforts to respond to changing consumer demand over time. We show that the party that bears the demand risk has fewer hold-up opportunities and that this leads the other contracting party to make more effort. Thus, in our model, bearing less risk can lead to more effort, which we describe as a new example of âeuro~counter-incentivesâeuro?. We further show that when the benefits of adaptation are important, it is socially preferable to design a contract in which the demand risk remains with the private provider, whereas when the benefits of cost-reducing efforts are important, it is socially preferable to place the demand risk on the public authority. We then apply these results to explain two well-known case studies.

Iowa in Motion, Planning Ahead State Transportation Plan, May 8, 2012

According to 23 CFR § 450.214(a), “The State shall develop a long-range statewide transportation plan, with a minimum 20-year forecast period at the time of adoption, that provides for the development and implementation of the multimodal transportation system for the State.” The state transportation plan (Plan) is a document that will address this requirement and serve as a transportation investment guide between now and 2040. Iowa’s most recent plan was developed by the Iowa Department of Transportation and adopted in 1997 through a planning process called Iowa in Motion. Much of Iowa in Motion has been implemented and this Plan, "Iowa in Motion – Planning Ahead," will build on the success of its predecessor. The Plan projects the demand for transportation infrastructure and services to 2040 based on consideration of social and economic changes likely to occur during this time. Iowa’s economy and the need to meet the challenges of the future will continue to place pressure on the transportation system. With this in mind, the Plan will provide direction for each transportation mode, and will support a renewed emphasis on efficient investment and prudent, responsible management of our existing transportation system. In recent years, the Iowa DOT has branded this philosophy as stewardship. As Iowa changes and the transportation system evolves, one constant will be that the safe and efficient movement of Iowans and our products is essential for stable growth in Iowa’s economy. Iowa’s extensive multimodal and multijurisdictional transportation system is a critical component of economic development and job creation throughout the state.

European guidelines for the development of mechanisms/tools supporting the individual demand for training through use of training Vouchers

El projecte de TAV es basa en la transferència d'un sistema de vals de capacitació, i en com aquest sistema de vals és adaptable a altres països o regions. En el document s'analitzen diferents conceptes teòrics sobre la conveniència o no de la implantació d'aquest sistema. A més a més, aquest document és una guia per a les organitzacions interessades en l'adaptació del sistema de vals formatius al seu territori, mostrant els passos a seguir i oferint eines útils per aconseguir-ho.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2004-2014

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2005-2015

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.