791 resultados para Concerns Based Adoption Model CBAM
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A low-cost circuit was developed for stable and efficient maximum power point (MPP) tracking in autonomous photo voltaic-motor systems with variable-frequency drives (VFDs). The circuit is made of two resistors, two capacitors, and two Zener diodes. Its input is the photovoltaic (PV) array voltage and its output feeds the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller usually integrated into, the drive. The steady-state frequency-voltage oscillations induced by the circuit were treated in a simplified mathematical model, which was validated by widely characterizing a PV-powered centrifugal pump. General procedures for circuit and controller tuning were recommended based on model equations. The tracking circuit presented here is widely applicable to PV-motor system with VFDs, offering an. efficient open-access technology of unique simplicity. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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This doctoral work gains deeper insight into the dynamics of knowledge flows within and across clusters, unfolding their features, directions and strategic implications. Alliances, networks and personnel mobility are acknowledged as the three main channels of inter-firm knowledge flows, thus offering three heterogeneous measures to analyze the phenomenon. The interplay between the three channels and the richness of available research methods, has allowed for the elaboration of three different papers and perspectives. The common empirical setting is the IT cluster in Bangalore, for its distinguished features as a high-tech cluster and for its steady yearly two-digit growth around the service-based business model. The first paper deploys both a firm-level and a tie-level analysis, exploring the cases of 4 domestic companies and of 2 MNCs active the cluster, according to a cluster-based perspective. The distinction between business-domain knowledge and technical knowledge emerges from the qualitative evidence, further confirmed by quantitative analyses at tie-level. At firm-level, the specialization degree seems to be influencing the kind of knowledge shared, while at tie-level both the frequency of interaction and the governance mode prove to determine differences in the distribution of knowledge flows. The second paper zooms out and considers the inter-firm networks; particularly focusing on the role of cluster boundary, internal and external networks are analyzed, in their size, long-term orientation and exploration degree. The research method is purely qualitative and allows for the observation of the evolving strategic role of internal network: from exploitation-based to exploration-based. Moreover, a causal pattern is emphasized, linking the evolution and features of the external network to the evolution and features of internal network. The final paper addresses the softer and more micro-level side of knowledge flows: personnel mobility. A social capital perspective is here developed, which considers both employees’ acquisition and employees’ loss as building inter-firm ties, thus enhancing company’s overall social capital. Negative binomial regression analyses at dyad-level test the significant impact of cluster affiliation (cluster firms vs non-cluster firms), industry affiliation (IT firms vs non-IT fims) and foreign affiliation (MNCs vs domestic firms) in shaping the uneven distribution of personnel mobility, and thus of knowledge flows, among companies.
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In this thesis, the industrial application of control a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor in a sensorless configuration has been faced, and in particular the task of estimating the unknown “parameters” necessary for the application of standard motor control algorithms. In literature several techniques have been proposed to cope with this task, among them the technique based on model-based nonlinear observer has been followed. The hypothesis of neglecting the mechanical dynamics from the motor model has been applied due to practical and physical considerations, therefore only the electromagnetic dynamics has been used for the observers design. First observer proposed is based on stator currents and Stator Flux dynamics described in a generic rotating reference frame. Stator flux dynamics are known apart their initial conditions which are estimated, with speed that is also unknown, through the use of the Adaptive Theory. The second observer proposed is based on stator currents and Rotor Flux dynamics described in a self-aligning reference frame. Rotor flux dynamics are described in the stationary reference frame exploiting polar coordinates instead of classical Cartesian coordinates, by means the estimation of amplitude and speed of the rotor flux. The stability proof is derived in a Singular Perturbation Framework, which allows for the use the current estimation errors as a measure of rotor flux estimation errors. The stability properties has been derived using a specific theory for systems with time scale separation, which guarantees a semi-global practical stability. For the two observer ideal simulations and real simulations have been performed to prove the effectiveness of the observers proposed, real simulations on which the effects of the Inverter nonlinearities have been introduced, showing the already known problems of the model-based observers for low speed applications.
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Laterally loaded piles are a typical situation for a large number of cases in which deep foundations are used. Dissertation herein reported, is a focus upon the numerical simulation of laterally loaded piles. In the first chapter the best model settings are largely discussed, so a clear idea about the effects of interface adoption, model dimension, refinement cluster and mesh coarseness is reached. At a second stage, there are three distinct parametric analyses, in which the model response sensibility is studied for variation of interface reduction factor, Eps50 and tensile cut-off. In addition, the adoption of an advanced soil model is analysed (NGI-ADP). This was done in order to use the complex behaviour (different undrained shear strengths are involved) that governs the resisting process of clay under short time static loads. Once set a definitive model, a series of analyses has been carried out with the objective of defining the resistance-deflection (P-y) curves for Plaxis3D (2013) data. Major results of a large number of comparisons made with curves from API (America Petroleum Institute) recommendation are that the empirical curves have almost the same ultimate resistance but a bigger initial stiffness. In the second part of the thesis a simplified structural preliminary design of a jacket structure has been carried out to evaluate the environmental forces that act on it and on its piles foundation. Finally, pile lateral response is studied using the empirical curves.
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Friend murine leukemia Virus (FV) infection of immunocompetent mice is a well- established model to acquire further knowledge about viral immune suppression mechanisms, with the aim to develop therapeutics against retrovirus-induced diseases. Interestingly, BALB/c mice are infected by low doses of FV and die from FV-induced erythroleukemia, while C57/BL6 mice are infected by FV only at high viral dose, and remain persistently infected for their whole life. Due to the central role of dendritic cells (DC) in the induction of anti-viral responses, we asked for their functional role in the genotype-dependent sensitivity towards FV infection. In my PhD study I showed that bone marrow (BM)-derived DC differentiated from FV-infected BM cells obtained from FV-inoculated BALB/c (FV susceptible) and C57BL/6 (FV resistant) mice showed an increased endocytotic activity and lowered expression of MHCII and of costimulatory receptors as compared with non-infected control BMDC. FV-infected BMDC from either mouse strain were partially resistant towards stimulation-induced upregulation of MHCII and costimulators, and accordingly were poor T cell stimulators in vitro and in vivo. In addition, FV-infected BMDC displayed an altered expression profile of proinflammator cytokines and favoured Th2 polarization. Ongoing work is focussed on elucidating the functional role of proteins identified as differentially expressed in FV-infected DC in a genotype-dependent manner, which therefore may contribute to the differential course of FV infection in vivo in BALB/c versus C57BL/6 mice. So far, more than 300 proteins have been identified which are differently regulated in FV-infected vs. uninfected DC from both mouse strains. One of these proteins, S100A9, was strongly upregulated specifically in BMDC derived from FV-infected C57BL/6 BM cells. S100A9-/- mice were more sensitive towards inoculation with FV than corresponding wild type (WT) mice (both C57BL/6 background), which suggests a decisive role of this factor for anti-viral defense. In addition, FV-infected S100A9-/- BMDC showed lower motility than WT DC. The future work is aimed to further elucidate the functional importance of S100A9 for DC functions. To exploit the potential of DC for immunotherapeutic applications, in another project of this PhD study the usability of different types of functionalized nanoparticles
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Regulatorische T-Zellen (Tregs) leisten durch ihre suppressiven Eigenschaften einen essenziellen Beitrag zur Aufrechterhaltung der immunologischen Toleranz. Sie verhindern schädliche Immunreaktionen gegen Autoantigene, kommensale Bakterien, sowie harmlose Nahrungsmittel-bestandteile. Gleichzeitig gewährleisten sie die Entwicklung effektiver Immunantworten gegen eindringende Pathogene, wie z.B. Parasiten, Bakterien und Viren. Damit haben Tregs direkten Einfluss auf das Gleichgewicht zwischen Immunität und Toleranz. Fehler in der suppressiven Funktionsweise von Tregs begünstigen daher auf der einen Seite die Entstehung zahlreicher autoimmuner Erkrankungen und Allergien. Auf der anderen Seite können Tregs Immunreaktionen bei chronischen Infektionen reduzieren, sowie die Entstehung effektiver Immunantworten gegen Tumore hemmen. Ihre Beteiligung an der Ätiologie all dieser Krankheiten macht Tregs zu einem bedeutenden potenziellen Zielobjekt, um diese Krankheiten effektiv zu therapieren. Die Erweiterung des Grundwissens um die molekularen Mechanismen der Treg-vermittelten Suppression ist daher ein notwendiger Schritt bei der Entwicklung Treg-basierter Theraphieansätze. 2003 konnte mit Foxp3 ein Transkriptionsfaktor identifiziert werden, der maßgeblich die suppressiven Funktionen von Tregs steuert. Um weiteren Einblick in die der Suppression zugrundeliegenden Signalwege zu erhalten, wurde im Institut für Immunologie ein komparativer Kinomarray durchgeführt, anhand dessen die Casein Kinase 2 (CK2) als eine der aktivsten Kinasen in Tregs identifiziert wurde (Daten freundlicherweise von Prof. Dr. Tobias Bopp bereitgestellt). rnBasierend auf den Ergebnissen des Kinomarrays wurde in dieser Arbeit die Funktion der CK2 in Tregs untersucht. Dabei konnte in in vitro Experimenten die Treg-vermittelte Suppression durch den pharmakologische CK2 Inhibitor DMAT aufgehoben werden. Weil derartige Inhibitoren jedoch nicht absolut spezifisch die Aktivität nur einer Kinase supprimieren, wurden außerdem Mäuse mit konditionalem „knockout“ der CK2β Untereinheit spezifisch in Tregs gekreuzt (CK2βTreg-/- Mäuse). Die Analyse dieser Tiere offenbarte eine essenzielle Beteiligung der CK2 an den suppressiven Funktionen von Tregs. So entwickeln CK2βTreg-/- Mäuse mit zunehmendem Alter Splenomegalien und Lymphadenopathien, von denen in besonderem Maße die Mukosa-assoziierten Lymphknoten betroffen sind. Eine Analyse des Aktivierungsstatus der T-Zellen in den Tieren konnte zudem einen erhöhten Anteil sogenannter Effektor-Gedächtnis T-Zellen aufdecken, die charakteristische Merkmale eines Th2 Phänotyps zeigten. Erhöhte Titer des Antikörperisotyps IgE in den Seren von CK2βTreg-/- Mäusen suggerieren zusätzlich eine fehlerhafte Suppression speziell Th2-vermittelter Immunantworten durch CK2β-defiziente Tregs. In Th2-vermittelten Asthma Experimenten in vivo konnte der Verdacht der fehlerhaften Kontrolle von Th2-Antwort bestätigt werden, wobei zusätzlich aufgedeckt wurde, dass bereits unbehandelte CK2βTreg-/- Mäuse Zeichen einer Entzündungsreaktion in der Lunge aufweisen. Bei der Suche nach den molekularen Ursachen der fehlerhaften Suppression Th2-vermittelter Immunantworten durch CK2β-defiziente Tregs konnten zwei mögliche Erklärungsansätze gefunden werden. Zum einen zeigen CK2β-defiziente Tregs eine verringerte Expression von Foxp3, was, in Analogie zu Ergebnissen der Gruppe von R. Flavell (Wang Y.Y. Nature. 445, 766-770 (2007)), zu einer Konversion von Tregs zu Th2 Zellen und damit zur Entstehung eines Th2-basierten, autoimmunen Phänotyps führt. Des Weiteren weisen CK2β-defiziente Tregs eine reduzierte Expression des Transkriptionsfaktors IRF4 auf, der in Tregs entscheidend für die Kontrolle Th2-basierter Immunreaktionen ist (Zheng Y. Nature. 19; 351-356 (2009)). Die dargelegten Ergebnisse identifizieren die CK2 damit als Kinase, die entscheidend an der Treg-vermittelten Suppression speziell Th2-basierter Immunantworten beteiligt ist. Demnach könnten pharmakologische CK2 Inhibitoren beispielsweise dazu eingesetzt werden, um die Treg-vermittelte Suppression im Rahmen chronischer Parasiten-Infektionen aufzuheben. Die in CK2βTreg-/- Mäusen beobachtete Prävalenz der Funktion der CK2 für Mukosa-assoziierte Organe stellt dabei einen zusätzlichen Vorteil dar, weil systemische Nebenwirkungen, die durch die Blockade der Treg-vermittelte Suppression entstehen, zumindest in nicht-Mukosa-assoziierten Geweben nicht zu erwarten sind.rn
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Argillaceous formations generally act as aquitards because of their low hydraulic conductivities. This property, together with the large retention capacity of clays for cationic contaminants, has brought argillaceous formations into focus as potential host rocks for the geological disposal of radioactive and other waste. In several countries, programmes are under way to characterise the detailed transport properties of such formations at depth. In this context, the interpretation of profiles of natural tracers in pore waters across the formations can give valuable information about the large-scale and long-term transport behaviour of these formations. Here, tracer-profile data, obtained by various methods of pore-water extraction for nine sites in central Europe, are compiled. Data at each site comprise some or all of the conservative tracers: anions (Cl(-), Br(-)), water isotopes (delta(18)O, delta(2)H) and noble gases (mainly He). Based on a careful evaluation of the palaeo-hydrogeological evolution at each site, model scenarios are derived for initial and boundary pore-water compositions and an attempt is made to numerically reproduce the observed tracer distributions in a consistent way for all tracers and sites, using transport parameters derived from laboratory or in situ tests. The comprehensive results from this project have been reported in Mazurek et al. (2009). Here the results for three sites are presented in detail, but the conclusions are based on model interpretations of the entire data set. In essentially all cases, the shapes of the profiles can be explained by diffusion acting as the dominant transport process over periods of several thousands to several millions of years and at the length scales of the profiles. Transport by advection has a negligible influence on the observed profiles at most sites, as can be shown by estimating the maximum advection velocities that still give acceptable fits of the model with the data. The advantages and disadvantages of different conservative tracers are also assessed. The anion Cl(-) is well suited as a natural tracer in aquitards, because its concentration varies considerably in environmental waters. It can easily be measured, although the uncertainty regarding the fraction of the pore space that is accessible to anions in clays remains an issue. The stable water isotopes are also well suited, but they are more difficult to measure and their values generally exhibit a smaller relative range of variation. Chlorine isotopes (delta(37)Cl) and He are more difficult to interpret because initial and boundary conditions cannot easily be constrained by independent evidence. It is also shown that the existence of perturbing events such as the activation of aquifers due to uplift and erosion, leading to relatively sharp changes of boundary conditions, can be considered as a pre-requisite to obtain well-interpretable tracer signatures. On the other hand, gradual changes of boundary conditions are more difficult to parameterise and so may preclude a clear interpretation.
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Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.
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The work described in this thesis had two objectives. The first objective was to develop a physically based computational model that could be used to predict the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, and thermal conductivity of Pb1-xSnxTe alloys over the 400 K to 700 K temperature as a function of Sn content and doping level. The second objective was to determine how the secondary phase inclusions observed in Pb1-xSnxTe alloys made by consolidating mechanically alloyed elemental powders impact the ability of the material to harvest waste heat and generate electricity in the 400 K to 700 K temperature range. The motivation for this work was that though the promise of this alloy as an unusually efficient thermoelectric power generator material in the 400 K to 700 K range had been demonstrated in the literature, methods to reproducibly control and subsequently optimize the materials thermoelectric figure of merit remain elusive. Mechanical alloying, though not typically used to fabricate these alloys, is a potential method for cost-effectively engineering these properties. Given that there are deviations from crystalline perfection in mechanically alloyed material such as secondary phase inclusions, the question arises as to whether these defects are detrimental to thermoelectric function or alternatively, whether they enhance thermoelectric function of the alloy. The hypothesis formed at the onset of this work was that the small secondary phase SnO2 inclusions observed to be present in the mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe would increase the thermoelectric figure of merit of the material over the temperature range of interest. It was proposed that the increase in the figure of merit would arise because the inclusions in the material would not reduce the electrical conductivity to as great an extent as the thermal conductivity. If this were to be true, then the experimentally measured electronic conductivity in mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe alloys that have these inclusions would not be less than that expected in alloys without these inclusions while the portion of the thermal conductivity that is not due to charge carriers (the lattice thermal conductivity) would be less than what would be expected from alloys that do not have these inclusions. Furthermore, it would be possible to approximate the observed changes in the electrical and thermal transport properties using existing physical models for the scattering of electrons and phonons by small inclusions. The approach taken to investigate this hypothesis was to first experimentally characterize the mobile carrier concentration at room temperature along with the extent and type of secondary phase inclusions present in a series of three mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe alloys with different Sn content. Second, the physically based computational model was developed. This model was used to determine what the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, total thermal conductivity, and the portion of the thermal conductivity not due to mobile charge carriers would be in these particular Pb1-xSnxTe alloys if there were to be no secondary phase inclusions. Third, the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and total thermal conductivity was experimentally measured for these three alloys with inclusions present at elevated temperatures. The model predictions for electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient were directly compared to the experimental elevated temperature electrical transport measurements. The computational model was then used to extract the lattice thermal conductivity from the experimentally measured total thermal conductivity. This lattice thermal conductivity was then compared to what would be expected from the alloys in the absence of secondary phase inclusions. Secondary phase inclusions were determined by X-ray diffraction analysis to be present in all three alloys to a varying extent. The inclusions were found not to significantly degrade electrical conductivity at temperatures above ~ 400 K in these alloys, though they do dramatically impact electronic mobility at room temperature. It is shown that, at temperatures above ~ 400 K, electrons are scattered predominantly by optical and acoustical phonons rather than by an alloy scattering mechanism or the inclusions. The experimental electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient data at elevated temperatures were found to be within ~ 10 % of what would be expected for material without inclusions. The inclusions were not found to reduce the lattice thermal conductivity at elevated temperatures. The experimentally measured thermal conductivity data was found to be consistent with the lattice thermal conductivity that would arise due to two scattering processes: Phonon phonon scattering (Umklapp scattering) and the scattering of phonons by the disorder induced by the formation of a PbTe-SnTe solid solution (alloy scattering). As opposed to the case in electrical transport, the alloy scattering mechanism in thermal transport is shown to be a significant contributor to the total thermal resistance. An estimation of the extent to which the mean free time between phonon scattering events would be reduced due to the presence of the inclusions is consistent with the above analysis of the experimental data. The first important result of this work was the development of an experimentally validated, physically based computational model that can be used to predict the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, and thermal conductivity of Pb1-xSnxTe alloys over the 400 K to 700 K temperature as a function of Sn content and doping level. This model will be critical in future work as a tool to first determine what the highest thermoelectric figure of merit one can expect from this alloy system at a given temperature and, second, as a tool to determine the optimum Sn content and doping level to achieve this figure of merit. The second important result of this work is the determination that the secondary phase inclusions that were observed to be present in the Pb1-xSnxTe made by mechanical alloying do not keep the material from having the same electrical and thermal transport that would be expected from “perfect" single crystal material at elevated temperatures. The analytical approach described in this work will be critical in future investigations to predict how changing the size, type, and volume fraction of secondary phase inclusions can be used to impact thermal and electrical transport in this materials system.
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Dynamic models for electrophoresis are based upon model equations derived from the transport concepts in solution together with user-inputted conditions. They are able to predict theoretically the movement of ions and are as such the most versatile tool to explore the fundamentals of electrokinetic separations. Since its inception three decades ago, the state of dynamic computer simulation software and its use has progressed significantly and Electrophoresis played a pivotal role in that endeavor as a large proportion of the fundamental and application papers were published in this periodical. Software is available that simulates all basic electrophoretic systems, including moving boundary electrophoresis, zone electrophoresis, ITP, IEF and EKC, and their combinations under almost exactly the same conditions used in the laboratory. This has been employed to show the detailed mechanisms of many of the fundamental phenomena that occur in electrophoretic separations. Dynamic electrophoretic simulations are relevant for separations on any scale and instrumental format, including free-fluid preparative, gel, capillary and chip electrophoresis. This review includes a historical overview, a survey of current simulators, simulation examples and a discussion of the applications and achievements of dynamic simulation.
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Rechnergestützte Modellansätze, die Logistiksysteme gestalten und generieren, sind eine hochkomplexe Aufgabenstellung. Die bisher in der Praxis existierenden Planungs- und Steuerungsmodelle für Intralogistiksysteme weisen für die aktuellen und zukünftigen Anforderungen wie der Komplexitätsbewältigung, Reaktionsschnelligkeit und Anpassungsfähigkeit Schwachstellen auf. – Ein innovativer Ansatz, diesen Ansprüchen gerecht zu werden, stellen Multiagentensysteme dar. Mit ihrem dezentralen und modularen Charakter sind sie für ein komplexes Problem mit einem geringen Grad an Strukturiertheit geeignet. Außerdem ermöglichen diese computergestützten intelligenten Systeme den Anwendern eine einfache und aufwandsarme Handhabung.
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Die Bestandteile des Lean Thinking stellen für die moderne Produktion substantielle Prinzipien und Methoden für die Gestaltung effektiver wie auch gleichzeitig effizienter Systeme bereit. Ein unterstützendes Element bilden hier die Ansätze der Schlanken Logistik. Insbesondere die linienorientierte, variantenreiche Großserienproduktion im Automobilbau ist ein wesentlicher Treiber der Entwicklung. Die permanente Adaption auf mehrstufige Produktionssysteme, wie sie speziell im Druckmaschinenbau vorzufinden sind, erscheint dabei konsequent und sinnvoll. Der vorliegende Artikel stellt dabei wesentliche Voraussetzungen für die erfolgreiche Implementierung heraus und beschreibt die jeweiligen Interdependenzen. Schließlich werden ausgewählte Methoden mittels eines kennzahlenbasierten Messmodells anhand eines Fallbeispiels aus dem Druckmaschinenbau quantifiziert bewertet.
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A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.
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The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish-Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.
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In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the ecological consequences of individual trait variation within populations. Given that individual variability arises from evolutionary dynamics, to fully understand eco-evolutionary feedback loops, we need to pay special attention to how standing trait variability affects ecological dynamics. There is mounting empirical evidence that intra-specific phenotypic variation can exceed species-level means, but theoretical models of multi-trophic species coexistence typically neglect individual-level trait variability. What is needed are multispecies datasets that are resolved at the individual level that can be used to discriminate among alternative models of resource selection and species coexistence in food webs. Here, using one the largest individual-based datasets of a food web compiled to date, along with an individual trait-based stochastic model that incorporates Approximate Bayesian computation methods, we document intra-population variation in the strength of prey selection by different classes or predator phenotypes which could potentially alter the diversity and coexistence patterns of food webs. In particular, we found that strongly connected individual predators preferentially consumed common prey, whereas weakly connected predators preferentially selected rare prey. Such patterns suggest that food web diversity may be governed by the distribution of predator connectivity and individual trait variation in prey selection. We discuss the consequences of intra-specific variation in prey selection to assess fitness differences among predator classes (or phenotypes) and track longer term food web patterns of coexistence accounting for several phenotypes within each prey and predator species.