Theoretical framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change [in Europe]

Reducing risk that emerges from hazards of natural origin and societal vulnerability is a key challenge for the development of more resilient communities and the overall goal of sustainable development. The following chapter outlines a framework for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; ) sponsored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program.

Heterologous expression from the human D-Loop in organello

We report the expression of a linear reporter construct in isolated human mitochondria. The reporter construct contained the entire human D-Loop with adjacent tRNA (MTT) genes (mt.15956-647), the human ND1 gene with an in frame GFP gene and adjacent endogenous MTT genes and heterologous rat MTT genes. Natural competence of isolated human mitochondria of HepG2 cells was used to import reporter constructs. The import efficiency of various fluorescently labelled PCR-generated import substrates in the range of 250bp up to 3.5kb was assessed by quantitative PCR and evaluated by confocal microscopy. Heterologous expression of the imported construct was confirmed at RNA level by a circular RNA (cRNA)-RT-PCR assay for the expression of tRNAs and by in organello [α-(32)P]-UTP labelling and subsequent hybridisation to reporter-specific sequences for monitoring mRNA expression. Heterologous expression of rat mitochondrial tRNA(Leu(UUR)) (rMT-TL1) was confirmed by co-/post-transcriptional trinucleotide (CCA) addition. Interestingly, the rat-specific MT-TL1 was correctly processed in isolated human mitochondria at the 3' end, but showed an aberrant 5' end processing. Correct 3' end processing of the heterologous expressed mitochondrial rat tRNA(Ser2) (MT-TS2) was detected. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of genetic manipulation of human mitochondria, providing a tool for characterisation of cis-acting elements of the human mitochondrial genome and for the study of human mitochondrial tRNA processing in organello.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Biological variation of established and novel biomarkers for atherosclerosis: Results from a prospective, parallel-group cohort study.

BACKGROUND Biomarkers are a promising tool for the management of patients with atherosclerosis, but their variation is largely unknown. We assessed within-subject and between-subject biological variation of biomarkers in peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients and healthy controls, and defined which biomarkers have a favorable variation profile for future studies. METHODS Prospective, parallel-group cohort study, including 62 patients with stable PAD (79% men, 65±7years) and 18 healthy control subjects (44% men, 57±7years). Blood samples were taken at baseline, and after 3-, 6-, and 12-months. We calculated within-subject (CVI) and between-subject (CVG) coefficients of variation and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS Mean levels of D-dimer, hs-CRP, IL-6, IL-8, MMP-9, MMP-3, S100A8/A9, PAI-1, sICAM-1, and sP-selectin levels were higher in PAD patients than in healthy controls (P≤.05 for all). CVI and CVG of the different biomarkers varied considerably in both groups. An ICC≥0.5 (indicating moderate-to-good reliability) was found for hs-CRP, D-Dimer, E-selectin, IL-10, MCP-1, MMP-3, oxLDL, sICAM-1 and sP-selectin in both groups, for sVCAM in healthy controls and for MMP-9, PAI-1 and sCD40L in PAD patients. CONCLUSIONS Single biomarker measurements are of limited utility due to large within-subject variation, both in PAD patients and healthy subjects. D-dimer, hs-CRP, MMP-9, MMP-3, PAI-1, sP-selectin and sICAM-1 are biomarkers with both higher mean levels in PAD patients and a favorable variation profile making them most suitable for future studies.

(Table 1) Surface water chemistry of northern Victoria Land lakes

Concentrations of major ions, silicate and nutrients (total N and P) were measured in samples of surface water from 28 lakes in ice-free areas of northern Victoria Land (East Antarctica). Sixteen lakes were sampled during austral summers 2001/02, 2003/04, 2004/05 and 2005/06 to assess temporal variation in water chemistry. Although samples showed a wide range in ion concentrations, their composition mainly reflected that of seawater. In general, as the distance from the sea increased, the input of elements from the marine environment (through aerosols and seabirds) decreased and there was an increase in nitrate and sulfate concentrations. Antarctic lakes lack outflows and during the austral summer the melting and/or ablation of ice cover, water evaporation and leaching processes in dry soils determine a progressive increase in water ion concentrations. During the five-year monitoring survey, no statistically significant variation in the water chemistry were detected, except for a slight (hardly significant) increase in TN concentrations. However, Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicated that other factors besides distance from the sea, the presence of nesting seabirds, the sampling time and percentage of ice cover affect the composition of water in Antarctic cold desert environments.

Política de sensibilización ambiental

Uno de los objetivos del Programa de Ordenamiento y Protección de los Recursos Naturales de la Costa Atlántica de Río Negro es promover experiencias innovadoras, vinculadas a la protección del patrimonio natural y cultural del litoral costero rionegrino. Dentro de este marco, el objetivo general es establecer las bases para un desarrollo sustentable. Esto no es posible, si no se acompaña de una fuerte sensibilización ambiental dirigida a diferentes sectores sociales respecto de los valores que representa este ecosistema costero, actividad desarrollada en el marco del Proyecto Desarrollo de una Política de Sensibilización ambiental. La implementación de una estrategia de Educación Ambiental que permita generar en la comunidad una mayor capacidad para comprender el ambiente y que contribuyan a valorar el patrimonio natural y cultural, es el eje fundamental para alcanzar el desarrollo sustentable de la región. Es por ello que se plantea el objetivo de generar una política integral de sensibilización ambiental que permita incluir la temática ambiental en los diferentes sectores sociales y modalidades del sistema educativo. Para lograrlo se realiza el Primer Seminario Taller sobre Diseño de una Política de Capacitación y Sensibilización Ambiental, que es el primer paso que permitió generar las bases de una propuesta de una Política Integral de Sensibilización Ambiental. Posteriormente se realiza una encuesta dirigida a la comunidad en general y a docentes en la que se propone analizar cada una de las problemáticas ambientales reconocidas a la luz de cuatro variables: muy grave, grave, leve y no conoce/no contesta. No fue intención realizar un análisis profundo y detallado de las variables sino resaltar grandes rasgos que permitan establecer comparaciones para su ordenamiento y tratamiento. También la se realiza un Curso para Docentes que brinda el marco propicio para la Formulación e Implementación de una Política de Sensibilización Ambiental. Otra actividad es la organización de un concurso anual "Conozcamos Nuestras Costas" dirigido a la comunidad educativa, en el que participaron activamente 430 alumnos pertenecientes a las tres localidades costeras. Se elabora y distribuye materiales de sensibilización ambiental elaborados luego de un trabajo de diagnóstico, recopilación de información y material fotográfico. El mismo se organizó en sets de 10 juegos cada uno (rompecabezas, libro de imágenes, memotest, entre otros), cuyo contenido es de flora y fauna, áreas de mayor sensibilidad ecológica y los principios de conservación. Por último se realiza un Taller para la Cooperación en la Prevención y Mitigación de Impactos Ambientales en la Costa Atlántica. Como resultado de este taller se obtuvo una Red de Alerta y Comunicación, que contribuya a la formalización y fortalecimiento de la ya existente. La creación de un Centro de un Coordinación Ambiental (CCA) que tendría su sede en la Dirección de Defensa Civil.

XRF scanning, pollen and spores of ODP Site 108-659

Pliocene vegetation dynamics and climate variability in West Africa have been investigated through pollen and XRF-scanning records obtained from sediment cores of ODP Site 659 (18°N, 21°W). The comparison between total pollen accumulation rates and Ti/Ca ratios, which is strongly correlated with the dust input at the site, showed elevated aeolian transport of pollen during dusty periods. Comparison of the pollen records of ODP Site 659 and the nearby Site 658 resulted in a robust reconstruction of West African vegetation change since the Late Pliocene. Between 3.6 and 3.0 Ma the savannah in West Africa differed in composition from its modern counterpart and was richer in Asteraceae, in particular of the Tribus Cichorieae. Between 3.24 and 3.20 Ma a stable wet period is inferred from the Fe/K ratios, which could stand for a narrower and better specified mid-Pliocene (mid-Piacenzian) warm time slice. The northward extension of woodland and savannah, albeit fluctuating, was generally greater in the Pliocene. NE trade wind vigour increased intermittently around 2.7 and 2.6 Ma, and more or less permanently since 2.5 Ma, as inferred from increased pollen concentrations of trade wind indicators (Ephedra, Artemisia, Pinus). Our findings link the NE trade wind development with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciations (iNHG). Prior to the iNHG, little or no systematic relation could be found between sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic with aridity and dust in West Africa.

Palynology and dinoflagellate counts of surface sediments, and sea surface conditions, of sites in the North Pacific

Palynological analyses were performed on 53 surface sediment samples from the North Pacific Ocean, including the Bering and Okhotsk Seas (37-64°N, 144°E-148°W), in order to document the relationships between the dinocyst distribution and sea-surface conditions (temperatures, salinities, primary productivity and sea-ice cover). Samples are characterized by concentrations ranging from 18 to 143816 cysts/cm**3 and the occurrence of 32 species. A canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was carried out to determine the relationship between environmental variables and the distribution of dinocyst taxa. The first and second axes represent, respectively, 47% and 17.8% of the canonical variance. Axis 1 is positively correlated with all parameters except to the sea-ice and primary productivity in August, which are on the negative side. Results indicate that the composition of dinocyst assemblages is mostly controlled by temperature and that all environmental variables are correlated together. The CCA distinguishes 3 groups of dinocysts: the heterotrophic taxa, the genera Impagidinium and Spiniferites as well as the cyst of Pentapharsodinium dalei and Operculodinium centrocarpum. Five assemblage zones can be distinguished: 1) the Okhotsk Sea zone, which is associated to temperate and eutrophic conditions, seasonal upwellings and Amur River discharges. It is characterized by the dominance of O. centrocarpum, Brigantedinium spp. and Islandinium minutum; 2) the Western Subarctic Gyre zone with subpolar and mesotrophic conditions due to the Kamchatka Current and Alaska Stream inflows. Assemblages are dominated by Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus, Pyxidinopsis reticulata and Brigantedinium spp.; 3) the Bering Sea zone, depicting a subpolar environment, influenced by seasonal upwellings and inputs from the Anadyr and Yukon Rivers. It is characterized by the dominance of I. minutum and Brigantedinium spp.; 4) the Alaska Gyre zone with temperate conditions and nutrient-enriched surface waters, which is dominated by N. labyrinthus and Brigantedinium spp. and 5) the Kuroshio Extension-North Pacific-Subarctic Current zone characterized by a subtropical and oligotrophic environment, which is dominated by O. centrocarpum, N. labyrinthus and warm taxa of the genus Impagidinium. Transfer functions were tested using the modern analog technique (MAT) on the North Pacific Ocean (= 359 sites) and the entire Northern Hemisphere databases ( = 1419 sites). Results confirm that the updated Northern Hemisphere database is suitable for further paleoenvironmental reconstructions, and the best results are obtained for temperatures with an accuracy of +/-1.7 °C.

Palynology of marine sediment cores from the West African coast

Seven sediment cores from the cruises of the "Meteor" and "Valdivia" were examined palynologically. The cores were retrieved from the lower continental slope in the area of between 33.5° N and 8° N, off the West African coast. Most of the cores contain sediments from the last Glacial and Interglacial period. In some cases, the Holocene sediments are missing. Some individual cores contain sediments also from earlier Glacial and Interglacial periods. The main reason for making this palynological study was to find out the differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods in those parts of West Africa which at present belong to the Mediterranean zone, the Sahara and the zones of the savannas and tropical forests. In today's Mediterranean vegetation zone at core 33.5° N, forests and deciduous forests in particular, are missing during Glacial conditions. Semi-deserts are found instead of these. In the early isotope stage 1, there is a very significant development of forests which contain evergreen oaks; this is the Mediterranean type of vegestation development. The Sahara type of vegetation development is shown in four cores from between 27° N and 19° N. The differences between Glacial and Interglacial periods are very small. It must be assumed therefore that in this latitudes, both Glacial and Interglacial conditions gave rise to desert generally. The results are in favour of a slightly more arid climate during Glacial and more humid one during Interglacial periods. The southern boundary of the Sahara and the adjacent savannas with grassland and tropical woods were situated more to the south during the Glacial periods than they were during the Interglacial ones. In front of today's savanna belt, it can be seen from the palynological results that there are considerable differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods. The woods are more important in Interglacial periods. During the Glacial periods these are replaced from north to south decreasingly by grassland (savanna and rainforest type of vegetation development). The southern limit of the Sahara during stage 2 was somewhat between 12° N and 8° N which is between 1.5 and 5 degrees in latitude further south than it i s today. Not only do these differences in climate and vegetation apply to the maximum of the last Glacial and for the Holocene, but they apparently apply also to the older Glacial and Interglacial periods, where they have been found in the profiles. The North African deset belt can be said to have expanded during Glacial times both towards the north and towards the south. All the available evidence of this study indicates that the grass land or the semi-desert of the Southern Europe cam einto connection with those of the N Africa; there could not have been any forest zone between them. The present study was also a good opportunity for investigating some of the basic marine palynological problems. The very well known overrepresentation of pollen grains of the genus Pinus in marine sediments can be traced as fa as 21° N. The present southern limit for the genus Pinus is on the Canaries and on the African continent as approximately 31° N. Highest values of Ephedra pollen grains even occur south of the main area of the present distribution of that genus. These does not seem to be any satisfactory explanation for this. In general, it would appear that the transport of pollen grains from the north is more important than transport from the south. The results so far, indicate strongly that further palynological studies are necessary. These should concentrate particularly on cores from between 33° N and 27° N as well as between 17° N and 10° N. It would also be useful to have a more detailed examination of sediments from the last Intergalcial period (substage 5 e). Absolute pollen counts and more general examination of surface samples would be desirable. Surface samples should be taken from the shelf down to the bottom of the continental slope in different latitudes.

Pollen distribution in marine sediment samples along the south-western African coast

The distribution of pollen in marine sediments is used to reconstruct pathways of terrigenous input to the oceans and provides a record of vegetation change on adjacent continents. The wind transport routes of aeolian pollen is comprehensively illustrated by clusters of trajectories. Isobaric, 4-day backward trajectories are calculated using the modelled wind-field of ECHAM3, and are clustered on a seasonal basis to estimate the main pathways of aeolian particles to sites of marine cores in the south-eastern Atlantic. Trajectories and clusters based on the modelled wind-field of the Last Glacial Maximum hardly differ from those of the present-day. Trajectory clusters show three regional, and two seasonal patterns, determining the pathways of aeolian pollen transport into the south-eastern Atlantic ocean. Mainly, transport out of the continent occurs during austral fall and winter, when easterly and south-easterly winds prevail. South of 25°S, winds blow mostly from the west and southwest, and aeolian terrestrial input is very low. Generally, a good latitudinal correspondence exists between the distribution patterns of pollen in marine surface sediments and the occurrence of the source plants on the adjacent continent. The northern Angola Basin receives pollen and spores from the Congolian and Zambezian forests mainly through river discharge. The Zambezian vegetation zone is the main source area for wind-blown pollen in sediments of the Angola Basin, while the semi-desert and desert areas are the main sources for pollen in sediments of the Walvis Basin and on the Walvis Ridge. A transect of six marine pollen records along the south-western African coast indicates considerable changes in the vegetation of southern Africa between glacial and interglacial periods. Important changes in the vegetation are the decline of forests in equatorial Africa and the north of southern Africa and a northward shift of winter rain vegetation along the western escarpment.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and concentration boundary layers around complex assemblages of macroalgae in a laboratory experiment

Metabolic processes have the potential to modulate the effects of ocean acidification (OA) in nearshore macroalgal beds. We investigated whether natural mixed assemblages of the articulate coralline macroalgae Arthrocardia corymbosa and understory crustose coralline algae (CCA) altered pH and O2 concentrations within and immediately above their canopies. In a unidirectional flume, we tested the effect of water velocity (0-0.1 m/s), bulk seawater pH (ambient pH 8.05, and pH 7.65), and irradiance (photosynthetically saturating light and darkness) on pH and O2 concentration gradients, and the derived concentration boundary layer (CBL) thickness. At bulk seawater pH 7.65 and slow velocities (0 and 0.015 m/s), pH at the CCA surface increased to 7.90-8.00 in the light. Although these manipulations were short term, this indicates a potential daytime buffering capacity that could alleviate the effects of OA. Photosynthetic activity also increased O2 concentrations at the surface of the CCA. However, this moderating capacity was flow dependent; the CBL thickness decreased from an average of 26.8 mm from the CCA surface at 0.015 m/s to 4.1 mm at 0.04 m/s. The reverse trends occurred in the dark, with respiration causing pH and O2 concentrations to decrease at the CCA surface. At all flow velocities the CBL thicknesses (up to 68 mm) were much greater than those previously published, indicating that the presence of canopies can alter the CBL substantially. In situ, the height of macroalgal canopies can be an order of magnitude larger than those used here, indicating that the degree of buffering to OA will be context dependent.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and encrusting algal communities during a mesocosm experiment, 2007

Owing to anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide could almost double between 2006 and 2100 according to business-as-usual carbon dioxide emission scenarios. Because the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will lead to increasing dissolved inorganic carbon and carbon dioxide in surface ocean waters, and hence acidification and lower carbonate saturation states. As a consequence, it has been suggested that marine calcifying organisms, for example corals, coralline algae, molluscs and foraminifera, will have difficulties producing their skeletons and shells at current rates, with potentially severe implications for marine ecosystems, including coral reefs. Here we report a seven-week experiment exploring the effects of ocean acidification on crustose coralline algae, a cosmopolitan group of calcifying algae that is ecologically important in most shallowwater habitats. Six outdoor mesocosms were continuously supplied with sea water from the adjacent reef and manipulated to simulate conditions of either ambient or elevated seawater carbon dioxide concentrations. The recruitment rate and growth of crustose coralline algae were severely inhibited in the elevated carbon dioxide mesocosms. Our findings suggest that ocean acidification due to human activities could cause significant change to benthic community structure in shallow-warm-water carbonate ecosystems.

Dolomite-rich coralline algae in reefs resist dissolution in acidified conditions

Coral reef ecosystems develop best in high-flow environments but their fragile frameworks are also vulnerable to high wave energy. Wave-resistant algal rims, predominantly made up of the crustose coralline algae (CCA) Porolithon onkodes and P. pachydermum, are therefore critical structural elements for the survival of many shallow coral reefs. Concerns are growing about the susceptibility of CCA to ocean acidification because CCA Mg-calcite skeletons are more susceptible to dissolution under low pH conditions than coral aragonite skeletons. However, the recent discovery of dolomite (Mg0.5Ca0.5(CO3)), a stable carbonate, in P. onkodes cells necessitates a reappraisal of the impacts of ocean acidification on these CCA. Here we show, using a dissolution experiment, that dried dolomite-rich CCA have 6-10 times lower rates of dissolution than predominantly Mg-calcite CCA in both high-CO2 (~ 700 ppm) and control (~ 380 ppm) environments, respectively. We reveal this stabilizing mechanism to be a combination of reduced porosity due to dolomite infilling and selective dissolution of other carbonate minerals. Physical break-up proceeds by dissolution of Mg-calcite walls until the dolomitized cell eventually drops out intact. Dolomite-rich CCA frameworks are common in shallow coral reefs globally and our results suggest that it is likely that they will continue to provide protection and stability for coral reef frameworks as CO2 rises.

Pollen analysis of surface sediment off northwest Africa

Over 100 samples of recent surface sediments from the bottomn of the Atlantic Ocean offshore NW Africa between 34° and 6° N have been analysed palynologically. The objective of this study was to reveal the relation between source areas, transport systems, and resulting distribution patterns of pollen and spores in marine sediments off NW Africa, in order to lay a sound foundation for the interpretation of pollen records of marine cores from this area. The clear zonation of the NW-African vegetation (due to the distinct climatic gradient) is helpful in determining main source areas, and the presence of some major wind belts facilitates the registration of the average course of wind trajectories. The present circulation pattern is driven by the intertropical front (ITCZ) which shifts over the continent between c. 22° N (summer position) and c. 4° N (winter position) in the course of the year. Determination of the period of main pollen release and the average atmospheric circulation pattern effective at that time of the years is of prime importance. The distribution patterns in recent marine sediments of pollen of a series of genera and families appear to record climatological/ecological variables, such as the trajectory of the NE trade, January trades, African Easterly Jet (Saharan Air Layer), the northernmost and southernmost position of the intertropical convergence zone, and the extent and latitudinal situation of the NW-African vegetation belt. Pollen analysis of a series of dated deep-sea cores taken between c. 35° and the equator off NW African enable the construction of paleo-distribution maps for time slices of the past, forming a register of paleoclimatological/paleoecological information.

Effects of ocean acidification on population dynamics and community structure of crustose coralline algae

Calcification and growth of crustose coralline algae (CCA) are affected by elevated seawater pCO2 and associated changes in carbonate chemistry. However, the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on population and community-level responses of CCA have barely been investigated. We explored changes in community structure and population dynamics (size structure and reproduction) of CCA in response to OA. Recruited from an experimental flow-through system, CCA settled onto the walls of plastic aquaria and developed under exposure to one of three pCO2 treatments (control [present day, 389±6 ppm CO2], medium [753±11 ppm], and high [1267±19 ppm]). Elevated pCO2 reduced total CCA abundance and affected community structure, in particular the density of the dominant species Pneophyllum sp. and Porolithon onkodes. Meanwhile, the relative abundance of P. onkodes declined from 24% under control CO2 to 8.3% in high CO2 (65% change), while the relative abundance of Pneophyllum sp. remained constant. Population size structure of P. onkodes differed significantly across treatments, with fewer larger individuals under high CO2. In contrast, the population size structure and number of reproductive structures (conceptacles) per crust of Pneophyllum sp. was similar across treatments. The difference in the magnitude of the response of species abundance and population size structure between species may have the potential to induce species composition changes in the future. These results demonstrate that the impacts of OA on key coral reef builders go beyond declines in calcification and growth, and suggest important changes to aspects of population dynamics and community ecology.