Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

A review of the performance of different ventilation and airflow distribution systems in buildings

The objective of this article is to review the scientific literature on airflow distribution systems and ventilation effectiveness to identify and assess the most suitable room air distribution methods for various spaces. In this study, different ventilation systems are classified according to specific requirements and assessment procedures. This study shows that eight ventilation methods have been employed in the built environment for different purposes and tasks. The investigation shows that numerous studies have been carried out on ventilation effectiveness but few studies have been done regarding other aspects of air distribution. Amongst existing types of ventilation systems, the performance of each ventilation methods varies from one case to another due to different usages of the ventilation system in a room and the different assessment indices used. This review shows that the assessment of ventilation effectiveness or efficiency should be determined according to each task of the ventilation system, such as removal of heat, removal of pollutant, supply fresh air to the breathing zone or protecting the occupant from cross infection. The analysis results form a basic framework regarding the application of airflow distribution for the benefit of designers, architects, engineers, installers and building owners.

A review of existing building benchmarks and the development of a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales

The modern built environment has become more complex in terms of building types, environmental systems and use profiles. This complexity causes difficulties in terms of optimising buildings energy design. In this circumstance, introducing a set of prototype reference buildings, or so called benchmark buildings, that are able to represent all or majority parts of the UK building stock may be useful for the examination of the impact of national energy policies on building energy consumption. This study proposes a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales based on the information collected from the Non-Domestic Building Stock (NDBS) project and an intensive review of the existing building benchmarks. The proposed building benchmark comprises 10 prototypical reference buildings, which in relation to built form and size, represent 95% of office buildings in England and Wales. This building benchmark provides a platform for those involved in building energy simulations to evaluate energy-efficiency measures and for policy-makers to assess the influence of different building energy policies.

The power of perceptions: exploring the role of urban design in cycling behaviours and healthy ageing

Good urban design has the power to aid in the provision of inclusive journey environments, yet traditionally neglects the perspective of the cyclist. This paper starts from the premise that more can be done to understand and articulate cyclists’ experiences and perceptions of the urban environment in which they cycle, as part of a closer linking of urban design qualities with transport planning and infrastructure interventions. This approach is particularly applicable in relation to older cyclists, a group whose needs are often poorly understood and for whom perceptions can significantly influence mobile behaviours. Currently, knowledge regarding the relationship between the built environment and physical activity, including cycling, in older adults is limited. As European countries face up to the challenges associated with ageing populations, some metropolitan regions, such as Munich, Germany, are making inroads into widening cycling’s appeal across generations through a combination of urban design, policy and infrastructure initiatives. The paper provides a systematic understanding of the urban design qualities and built environment features that affect cycling participation and have the potential to contribute towards healthy ageing. Urban design features such as legibility, aesthetics, scale and open space have been shown to influence and affect other mobile behaviours (e.g. walking), but their role as a mediator in cycle behaviour remains under-explored. Many of these design ‘qualities’ are related to individual perceptions; capturing these can help build a picture of quality in the built environment that includes an individual’s relationship with their local neighbourhood and its influences on their mobility choices. Issues of accessibility, facilities, and safety in cycling remain crucial, and, when allied to these design ‘qualities‘, provides a more rounded reflection of everyday journeys and trips taken or desired. The paper sets out the role that urban design might play in mediating these critical mobility issues, and in particular, in better understanding the ‘quality of the journey’. It concludes by highlighting the need for designers, policy makers, planners and academics to consider the role that design can play in encouraging cycle participation, especially as part of a healthy ageing agenda.

The 'veil' of control: exploring the attitudes and perceptions of UK design controllers

In the UK, architectural design is regulated through a system of design control for the public interest, which aims to secure and promote ‘quality’ in the built environment. Design control is primarily implemented by locally employed planning professionals with political oversight, and independent design review panels, staffed predominantly by design professionals. Design control has a lengthy and complex history, with the concept of ‘design’ offering a range of challenges for a regulatory system of governance. A simultaneously creative and emotive discipline, architectural design is a difficult issue to regulate objectively or consistently, often leading to policy that is regarded highly discretionary and flexible. This makes regulatory outcomes difficult to predict, as approaches undertaken by the ‘agents of control’ can vary according to the individual. The role of the design controller is therefore central, tasked with the responsibility of interpreting design policy and guidance, appraising design quality and passing professional judgment. However, little is really known about what influences the way design controllers approach their task, providing a ‘veil’ over design control, shrouding the basis of their decisions. This research engaged directly with the attitudes and perceptions of design controllers in the UK, lifting this ‘veil’. Using in-depth interviews and Q-Methodology, the thesis explores this hidden element of control, revealing a number of key differences in how controllers approach and implement policy and guidance, conceptualise design quality, and rationalise their evaluations and judgments. The research develops a conceptual framework for agency in design control – this consists of six variables (Regulation; Discretion; Skills; Design Quality; Aesthetics; and Evaluation) and it is suggested that this could act as a ‘heuristic’ instrument for UK controllers, prompting more reflexivity in relation to evaluating their own position, approaches, and attitudes, leading to better practice and increased transparency of control decisions.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Whole life thinking and engineering the future

Whole-life thinking for engineers working on the built environment has become more important in a fast changing world.Engineers are increasingly concerned with complex systems, in which the parts interact with each other and with the outside world in many ways – the relationships between the parts determine how the system behaves. Systems thinking provides one approach to developing a more robust whole life approach. Systems thinking is a process of understanding how things influence one another within a wider perspective. Complexity, chaos, and risk are endemic in all major projects. New approaches are needed to produce more reliable whole life predictions. Best value, rather than lowest cost can be achieved by using whole-life appraisal as part of the design and delivery strategy.

Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

Sustainable construction: exploring the capabilities of Nigerian construction firms

As the built environment accounts for much of the world's emissions, resource consumption and waste, concerns remain as to how sustainable the sector is. Understanding how such concerns can be better managed is complex, with a range of competing agendas and institutional forces at play. This is especially the case in Nigeria where there are often differing priorities, weak regulations and institutions to deal with this challenge. Construction firms are in competition with each other in a market that is growing in size and sophistication yearly. The business case for sustainability has been argued severally in literature. However, the capability of construction firms with respect to sustainability in Nigeria has not been studied. This paper presents the preliminary findings of an exploratory multi-case study carried out to understand the firm's views on sustainability as a source of competitive advantage. A international firm and a lower medium-sized indigenous firm were selected for this purpose. Qualitative interviews were conducted with top-level management of both firms, with key themes from the sustainable construction and dynamic capabilities literature informing the case study protocol. The interviews were transcribed and analysed with the use of NVivo software. The findings suggest that the multinational firm is better grounded in sustainability knowledge. Although the level of awareness and demand for sustainable construction is generally very poor, few international clients are beginning to stimulate interest in sustainable buildings. This has triggered both firms to build their capabilities in that regard, albeit in an unhurried manner. Both firms agree on the potentials of market-driven sustainability in the long term. Nonetheless, more drastic actions are required to accelerate the sustainable construction agenda in Nigeria.

Investigating Environmental Determinants of Diet, Physical Activity, and Overweight among Adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil

There is worldwide recognition that the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity-related health problems is rapidly increasing in low- and middle-income countries. Environmental determinants of obesity are likely to differ between countries, particularly in those undergoing rapid socioeconomic and nutrition transitions such as Brazil. This study aims to describe some built environment and local food environment variables and to explore their association with the overweight rate and diet and physical activity area-level aggregated indicators of adults living in the city of Sao Paulo, the largest city in Brazil. This formative study includes an ecological analysis of environmental factors associated with overweight across 31 submunicipalities of the city of Sao Paulo using statistical and spatial analyses. Average prevalence of overweight was 41.69% (95% confidence interval 38.74, 44.64), ranging from 27.14% to 60.75% across the submunicipalities. There was a wide geographical variation of both individual diet and physical activity, and indicators of food and built environments, favoring wealthier areas. After controlling for area socioeconomic status, there was a positive correlation between regular fruits and vegetables (FV) intake and density of FV specialized food markets (r = 0.497; p < 0.001), but no relationship between fast-food restaurant density and overweight prevalence was found. A negative association between overweight prevalence and density of parks and public sport facilities was seen (r = -0.527; p < 0.05). Understanding the relationship between local neighborhood environments and increasing rates of poor diet, physical activity, and obesity is essential in countries undergoing rapid economic and urban development, such as Brazil, in order to provide insights for policies to reduce increasing rates of NCDs and food access and health inequalities.

A Survey of Fungal Contamination on Books in Public Libraries with Mechanical and Natural Ventilation

Libraries are very propitious environments for the growth of fungi. The great concentration of organic material available for these microorganisms, and often with the lack of adequate ventilation or climate control, would favour this situation. This study was conducted in 2003 to determine the predominant genera of fungi in public libraries by a survey of fungi contaminating the upper surface of books, with and without air conditioning in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in the winter and summer, during the respective periods with high and low levels of airborne fungi in that city. Six libraries were chosen, located on the campus of the University of Sao Paulo, three of them with air conditioning and the other three with natural ventilation. In these six libraries, 31 genera of fungi were identified in total. The genera and frequency of contaminant fungi recovered differed significantly between the libraries with and without air conditioning and in the samples collected in the summer as opposed to the winter. Cladosporium was the most frequent in the libraries with and without air conditioning, and in the winter. Aspergillus was isolated more often in the summer.

Monitoring vegetation on railway embankments : supporting maintenance decisions

The national railway administrations in Scandinavia, Germany, and Austria mainly resort to manual inspections to control vegetation growth along railway embankments. Manually inspecting railways is slow and time consuming. A more worrying aspect concerns the fact that human observers are often unable to estimate the true cover of vegetation on railway embankments. Further human observers often tend to disagree with each other when more than one observer is engaged for inspection. Lack of proper techniques to identify the true cover of vegetation even result in the excess usage of herbicides; seriously harming the environment and threating the ecology. Hence work in this study has investigated aspects relevant to human variationand agreement to be able to report better inspection routines. This was studied by mainly carrying out two separate yet relevant investigations.First, thirteen observers were separately asked to estimate the vegetation cover in nine imagesacquired (in nadir view) over the railway tracks. All such estimates were compared relatively and an analysis of variance resulted in a significant difference on the observers’ cover estimates (p<0.05). Bearing in difference between the observers, a second follow-up field-study on the railway tracks was initiated and properly investigated. Two railway segments (strata) representingdifferent levels of vegetationwere carefully selected. Five sample plots (each covering an area of one-by-one meter) were randomizedfrom each stratumalong the rails from the aforementioned segments and ten images were acquired in nadir view. Further three observers (with knowledge in the railway maintenance domain) were separately asked to estimate the plant cover by visually examining theplots. Again an analysis of variance resulted in a significant difference on the observers’ cover estimates (p<0.05) confirming the result from the first investigation.The differences in observations are compared against a computer vision algorithm which detects the "true" cover of vegetation in a given image. The true cover is defined as the amount of greenish pixels in each image as detected by the computer vision algorithm. Results achieved through comparison strongly indicate that inconsistency is prevalent among the estimates reported by the observers. Hence, an automated approach reporting the use of computer vision is suggested, thus transferring the manual inspections into objective monitored inspections

Percepção Ambiental em Museus Paisagens de Arte Contemporânea: a legibilidade dos museus Inhotim/Brasil e em Serralves/Portugal avaliada pelo público/visitante

This thesis nalyzes the wayfinding in Landscape Museum of Contemporary Art (MPAC), based on the Institute of Contemporary Art CACI, Minas Gerais, Brazil and the Museum of Contemporary Art of the Serralves Foundation, Porto, Portugal. The study focuses on the interrelationship of the public/visitors with the landscape, architecture and contemporary art museums in these, in order to understand visual perception and apprehension of such an environment for their users. For both were confronted documentation (visual and written) and people talk. The main hypothesis put forward is that the audience/visitor MPAC appreciates the interrelationship between the natural environment (park/garden) and built environment (the works of contemporary art and the galleries), giving equal value to both. To complement this, a second hypothesis is that during the visit to MPACS, visitors define their paths spontaneously, but strongly influenced by existing visual indicators (maps, signage and striking landscape elements), which facilitate the readability of space, which also contribute to the offered services and the experiences of similar institutions. The analytical basis of the research used the concepts of legibility (LYNCH, 2009), wayfinding (GIBSON, 2009; ARTHUR, PASSINI, 2002; WEISMAN, 1982), Experiential Cotinnum (TUAN, 1985), Space Bound (CRUZ PINTO, 2007) and habitus (BOURDIEU, 1992). Methodologically was used qualitative research (DEMO 2000) by means of a case study (YIN, 2005; STAKE, 1999) and participant observation (WHYTE, 2005). In the two institutions interviews with researchers and curators, behavior observation and questionnaires from employees, trainees, monitors and the public/visitor of the two museums were performed. Although partially referende the initial hypothesis, the research showed that the public/visitor value appears more natural environments, they experience a greater intensity and in addition to the factors listed in the second case, your perception and definition of paths suffer significant influence of emotional relations established with space. Generally the audience/visitor adapts easily to different demands of contemporary art exhibition in the two museums and the built environment (park/garden and museum) interferes with your reading path during the visit, perceived by the public/visitor condition as a factor that favors the enjoyment of works on different mounts (wayfinding), though often become a factor that hinders the legibility of the building and its built environment

Uma cidade para pessoas: funcionalidade, racionalidade e emotividade nas relações mobiliário urbano, espaço público e cidadãos

This research investigates how functionality, rationality, and emotionality applied to urban furniture design contribute to the organization, legibility, and qualification of public spaces, according to different layouts, physical and visual qualities of the urban furniture as well as the quality of urban infrastructure that may influence the uses and appropriation of urban spaces by pedestrians, turning those spaces into socially centripetal or centrifugal places. The work consists of two parts. First refers to a bibliographical review concerning two main issues of the investigation: product design and legibility of public space, defining the conceptual and theoretical bases, linked to methodological strategies aimed at systemic planning and integrated management of urban furniture design and legibility of public spaces (sidewalks), that are necessary to define the existing relationships among the user s interface (pedestrians); product (urban artifacts); built environment (sidewalks). The second part refers to the achievement of empirical approach throughout visual analysis of public spaces and the functional and qualitative evaluation of the existing urban furniture in the central neighborhood of Cidade Alta, Natal, RN, according to the theoretical researched concepts and methodological procedures. The results expose the weaknesses and levels of intensity arising from the relations among public space, urban furniture, and users, revealing the need for theoretical and practical approaches which would help the decision-making in planning, designing and integrating innovative, sustainable, and ethical solutions in order to design attractive public spaces that could provide sociability and citizenship throughout integrated public management, city systemic thinking and urban identity. The suggested guidelines at the end of this research will provide the necessary strategies to design suitable urban furniture systems according to aesthetic and practical urban infrastructure and city context, aiming to ease visual and physical conflicts that may negatively interfere with the appropriation of public spaces by the citizens

Arquitetura da (in)segurança: estudando relações entre configuração espacial, artifícios de segurança e violência urbana no bairro Manaíra, João Pessoa, Paraíba

João Pessoa, the capital city of the state of Paraíba (Northeast Brazil), is reputed throughout the country as a quiet place, although it has been acquiring, over the past years, an urban character with social implications similar to those of major metropolitan Brazilian areas. The new situation is evident by the social inequalities, with the creation of confined spaces, which segregate and cause enclosure of the inhabitants, leading to death the public space. This study correlates accessibility in spatial structure with two types of crime data, burglary and robbery, recorded in 2008 and 2009, by the Secretaria de Segurança da Paraíba (The government agency public in charge of safety), in the district of Manaíra, an upper middle class neighborhood, which has, in recent times, been considered one of the most violent areas in João Pessoa. Sought to understand connections between these events and morpho-social aspects of the built environment, where examined the spatial properties, such as accessibility of the urban net, the presence of control measures, the safety of buildings and their uses. Spatial properties were also validated by the observation of pedestrian flows at strategic points of the study area. It was concluded that the presence of intense flows helps to attract potential thieves, physical security and control offers little protection