980 resultados para Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)


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This paper presents a methodology for real-time estimation of exit movement-specific average travel time on urban routes by integrating real-time cumulative plots, probe vehicles, and historic cumulative plots. Two approaches, component based and extreme based, are discussed for route travel time estimation. The methodology is tested with simulation and is validated with real data from Lucerne, Switzerland, that demonstrate its potential for accurate estimation. Both approaches provide similar results. The component-based approach is more reliable, with a greater chance of obtaining a probe vehicle in each interval, although additional data from each component is required. The extreme-based approach is simple and requires only data from upstream and downstream of the route, but the chances of obtaining a probe that traverses the entire route might be low. The performance of the methodology is also compared with a probe-only method. The proposed methodology requires only a few probes for accurate estimation; the probe-only method requires significantly more probes.

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For the timber industry, the ability to simulate the drying of wood is invaluable for manufacturing high quality wood products. Mathematically, however, modelling the drying of a wet porous material, such as wood, is a diffcult task due to its heterogeneous and anisotropic nature, and the complex geometry of the underlying pore structure. The well{ developed macroscopic modelling approach involves writing down classical conservation equations at a length scale where physical quantities (e.g., porosity) can be interpreted as averaged values over a small volume (typically containing hundreds or thousands of pores). This averaging procedure produces balance equations that resemble those of a continuum with the exception that effective coeffcients appear in their deffnitions. Exponential integrators are numerical schemes for initial value problems involving a system of ordinary differential equations. These methods differ from popular Newton{Krylov implicit methods (i.e., those based on the backward differentiation formulae (BDF)) in that they do not require the solution of a system of nonlinear equations at each time step but rather they require computation of matrix{vector products involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix. Although originally appearing in the 1960s, exponential integrators have recently experienced a resurgence in interest due to a greater undertaking of research in Krylov subspace methods for matrix function approximation. One of the simplest examples of an exponential integrator is the exponential Euler method (EEM), which requires, at each time step, approximation of φ(A)b, where φ(z) = (ez - 1)/z, A E Rnxn and b E Rn. For drying in porous media, the most comprehensive macroscopic formulation is TransPore [Perre and Turner, Chem. Eng. J., 86: 117-131, 2002], which features three coupled, nonlinear partial differential equations. The focus of the first part of this thesis is the use of the exponential Euler method (EEM) for performing the time integration of the macroscopic set of equations featured in TransPore. In particular, a new variable{ stepsize algorithm for EEM is presented within a Krylov subspace framework, which allows control of the error during the integration process. The performance of the new algorithm highlights the great potential of exponential integrators not only for drying applications but across all disciplines of transport phenomena. For example, when applied to well{ known benchmark problems involving single{phase liquid ow in heterogeneous soils, the proposed algorithm requires half the number of function evaluations than that required for an equivalent (sophisticated) Newton{Krylov BDF implementation. Furthermore for all drying configurations tested, the new algorithm always produces, in less computational time, a solution of higher accuracy than the existing backward Euler module featured in TransPore. Some new results relating to Krylov subspace approximation of '(A)b are also developed in this thesis. Most notably, an alternative derivation of the approximation error estimate of Hochbruck, Lubich and Selhofer [SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 19(5): 1552{1574, 1998] is provided, which reveals why it performs well in the error control procedure. Two of the main drawbacks of the macroscopic approach outlined above include the effective coefficients must be supplied to the model, and it fails for some drying configurations, where typical dual{scale mechanisms occur. In the second part of this thesis, a new dual{scale approach for simulating wood drying is proposed that couples the porous medium (macroscale) with the underlying pore structure (microscale). The proposed model is applied to the convective drying of softwood at low temperatures and is valid in the so{called hygroscopic range, where hygroscopically held liquid water is present in the solid phase and water exits only as vapour in the pores. Coupling between scales is achieved by imposing the macroscopic gradient on the microscopic field using suitably defined periodic boundary conditions, which allows the macroscopic ux to be defined as an average of the microscopic ux over the unit cell. This formulation provides a first step for moving from the macroscopic formulation featured in TransPore to a comprehensive dual{scale formulation capable of addressing any drying configuration. Simulation results reported for a sample of spruce highlight the potential and flexibility of the new dual{scale approach. In particular, for a given unit cell configuration it is not necessary to supply the effective coefficients prior to each simulation.

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This study examines the range of Vietnamese understandings of the natural and cultural environment both in Australia and in Vietnam. It documents the differing experiences of Vietnamese-Australians to national parks, focusing on the factors influencing the involvement of Vietnamese people in parks and reserves. These include social, age, economic, gender and cultural determinants. The study also ascertains whether particular parks or reserves have social significance to Vietnamese people in Australia provides material that could impact on NPWS policy in relation to education strategies for different communities indicates ways of increasing community awareness about the NPWS in the Vietnamese community. The study is part of an NPWS research program on multiculturalism and conservation reserves.

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Next generation screens of diverse dimensions such as the Pebble e-paper watch, Google’s Project Glass, Microsoft’s Kinect and IllumiRoom, and large-scale multi-touch screen surface areas, increasingly saturate and diversify the urban mediascape. This paper seeks to contribute to media architecture and interaction design theory by starting to critically examine how these different screen formats are creating a ubiquitous screen mediascape across the city. We introduce next generation personal, domestic, and public screens. The paper critically challenges conventional dichotomies such as local / global, online / offline, private / public, large / small, mobile / static, that have been created in the past to describe some of the qualities and characteristics of interfaces and their usage. More and more scholars recognise that the black and white nature of these dichotomies does not adequately represent the fluid and agile capabilities of many new screen interfaces. With this paper, we hope to illustrate the more nuanced ‘trans-scalar’ qualities of these new urban interactions, that is, ways in which they provide a range functionality, without being locked into either end of a scale.

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Controlled drug delivery is a key topic in modern pharmacotherapy, where controlled drug delivery devices are required to prolong the period of release, maintain a constant release rate, or release the drug with a predetermined release profile. In the pharmaceutical industry, the development process of a controlled drug delivery device may be facilitated enormously by the mathematical modelling of drug release mechanisms, directly decreasing the number of necessary experiments. Such mathematical modelling is difficult because several mechanisms are involved during the drug release process. The main drug release mechanisms of a controlled release device are based on the device’s physiochemical properties, and include diffusion, swelling and erosion. In this thesis, four controlled drug delivery models are investigated. These four models selectively involve the solvent penetration into the polymeric device, the swelling of the polymer, the polymer erosion and the drug diffusion out of the device but all share two common key features. The first is that the solvent penetration into the polymer causes the transition of the polymer from a glassy state into a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of the polymer is modelled as a moving boundary and the speed of this interface is governed by a kinetic law. The second feature is that drug diffusion only happens in the rubbery region of the polymer, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient which is dependent on the concentration of solvent. These models are analysed by using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, where front-fixing methods and the method of lines with finite difference approximations are used to solve these models numerically. This numerical scheme is conservative, accurate and easily implemented to the moving boundary problems and is thoroughly explained in Section 3.2. From the small time asymptotic analysis in Sections 5.3.1, 6.3.1 and 7.2.1, these models exhibit the non-Fickian behaviour referred to as Case II diffusion, and an initial constant rate of drug release which is appealing to the pharmaceutical industry because this indicates zeroorder release. The numerical results of the models qualitatively confirms the experimental behaviour identified in the literature. The knowledge obtained from investigating these models can help to develop more complex multi-layered drug delivery devices in order to achieve sophisticated drug release profiles. A multi-layer matrix tablet, which consists of a number of polymer layers designed to provide sustainable and constant drug release or bimodal drug release, is also discussed in this research. The moving boundary problem describing the solvent penetration into the polymer also arises in melting and freezing problems which have been modelled as the classical onephase Stefan problem. The classical one-phase Stefan problem has unrealistic singularities existed in the problem at the complete melting time. Hence we investigate the effect of including the kinetic undercooling to the melting problem and this problem is called the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. Interestingly we discover the unrealistic singularities existed in the classical one-phase Stefan problem at the complete melting time are regularised and also find out the small time behaviour of the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling is different to the classical one-phase Stefan problem from the small time asymptotic analysis in Section 3.3. In the case of melting very small particles, it is known that surface tension effects are important. The effect of including the surface tension to the melting problem for nanoparticles (no kinetic undercooling) has been investigated in the past, however the one-phase Stefan problem with surface tension exhibits finite-time blow-up. Therefore we investigate the effect of including both the surface tension and kinetic undercooling to the melting problem for nanoparticles and find out the the solution continues to exist until complete melting. The investigation of including kinetic undercooling and surface tension to the melting problems reveals more insight into the regularisations of unphysical singularities in the classical one-phase Stefan problem. This investigation gives a better understanding of melting a particle, and contributes to the current body of knowledge related to melting and freezing due to heat conduction.

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In this article, I argue for an acknowledgement of the significance of the dancer’s role in the creation of independent contemporary dance. I propose the term ‘moving identity’ to outline the independent contemporary dancer’s ‘way of moving’ which could be perceived as the accumulation of various factors including training approaches, choreographic movement traces and anatomical structures. The concept of the moving identity allows us to appreciate the dancer’s unique signature movement style as the collation of embodied experiences into a unique way of moving. However, the moving identity is also open to change when the dancer encounters new choreography and the choreographer. Professional dance training produces particular types of dancers, depending on the techniques with which they engage. I demonstrate how the independent contemporary dancer troubles this distinctiveness by engaging with a multitude of movement styles and approaches throughout a career. This leads me to a fresh description of the dancer’s activity through the lens of Deleuzean concepts of multiplicity and de-stratification. Finally, I propose a definition of the dancer as a fluid and mutable body-in-flux with the creative potential to significantly influence the outcome of the choreographic process.

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Globalised communication in society today is characterised by multimodal forms of meaning making in a context of increased cultural and linguistic diversity, calling for the teaching of multiliteracies. This transformation requires the development of a new metalanguage or language of description for the burgeoning and hybridised variety of text forms associated with information and multimedia technologies. To continue to teach to a narrow band of print-based genres, grammars, and skills is to ignore the reality of textual practices outside of schools. This paper draws from classroom research in a multiliteracies classroom to provide a multimodal analysis of a claymation movie. The significance of the paper is the synthesis of a multimodal metalanguage for teachers and students to describe the features of work in the kineikonic (moving image) mode.

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Gaining support for proteomics science requires effective knowledge translation. Knowledge translation (KT) processes turn the evidence generated by scientific discovery into recommendations for clinical applications, funding priorities, and policy/regulatory reforms. Clinicians, regulators, and funders need to understand why emerging proteomics knowledge is relevant, and what are the potential applications of that knowledge. A lack of clarity remains about what KT means.

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To overcome the challenge of finding placements for large student numbers, QUT has partnered with community organisations to enable students to work on community-based projects addressing a community need. Students work in interdisciplinary teams with the community organisation to resolve issues and identify solutions to suit the organisation and client base. This paper will describe the community engaged learning pedagogy that is employed in the subject and will consider the benefits and challenges to law students of working collaboratively and developing community relationships. Critical appraisal of the legal system and the role of lawyers and analysis of the professional and ethical responsibilities legal practitioners is a focus of the subject. Explicit emphasis is placed on developing a sense of social responsibility and inculcating a pro bono ethos. Students attend workshops on topics such as reflective practice, cultural competencies, client solutions, collaborative practice and ethical obligations. This paper will discuss the challenges in creating the new legal clinic subject, benefits to students and community partners, and the results of initial student evaluation of the subject.

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Knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) has become the new development paradigm for the cities of the global knowledge economy era. Nevertheless, to date international KBUD performance analysis of prosperous knowledge cities is understudied. This paper, therefore, introduces the methodology and application of a novel performance analysis approach to comprehensively scrutinise the global perspectives on KBUD of cities—i.e., The KBUD Assessment Model (KBUD/AM). This indexing model puts 11 renowned knowledge cities—i.e., Birmingham, Boston, Brisbane, Helsinki, Istanbul, Manchester, Melbourne, San Francisco, Sydney, Toronto, Vancouver—under the KBUD microscope to provide a benchmarked international outlook. The results of the indexing provide internationally benchmarked snapshot of the degree of achievements in various KBUD performance areas. This paper discusses the further development avenues and potentialities of the index to become an integrated system for the policy-making circles of cities to benchmark themselves against their competitors and develop relevant KBUD policies.

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Background: Women with young children (under 5 years) are a key population group for physical activity intervention. Previous evidence highlights the need for individually tailored programs with flexible delivery mechanisms for this group. Our previous pilot study suggested that an intervention primarily delivered via mobile phone text messaging (MobileMums) increased self-reported physical activity in women with young children. An improved version of the MobileMums program is being compared with a minimal contact control group in a large randomised controlled trial (RCT). Methods/design: This RCT will evaluate the efficacy, feasibility and acceptability, cost-effectiveness, mediators and moderators of the MobileMums program. Primary (moderate-vigorous physical activity) and secondary (intervention implementation data, health service use costs, intervention costs, health benefits, theoretical constructs) outcomes are assessed at baseline, 3-months (end of intervention) and 9-months (following 6-month no contact: maintenance period). The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12611000481976; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=336109).The intervention commences with a face-to-face session with a behavioural counsellor to initiate rapport and gather information for tailoring the 12-week text message program. During the program participants also have access to a: MobileMums Participant Handbook, MobileMums refrigerator magnet, MobileMums Facebook(C) group, and a MobileMums website with a searchable, on-line exercise directory. A nominated support person also receives text messages for 12-weeks encouraging them to offer their MobileMum social support for physical activity. Discussion: Results of this trial will determine the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums program, and the feasibility of delivering it in a community setting. It will inform the broader literature of physical activity interventions for women with young children and determine whether further investment in the translation of the program is warranted.

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Susceptibility to complex traits, by definition, involves aetiological polymorphisms at multiple genetic loci combined with variable contributions by environmental factors. However, the approaches taken to identifying genetic loci implicated in susceptibility to complex traits frequently overlooks the compounding contribution of multiple loci in favour of highlighting a single gene solely responsible for predisposition. It is only in a small minority of cases that this has resulted in clear disease heritability associated with polymorphisms in a single gene. More often, this approach has led to an accumulation of single-gene associations with minor contributions to disease susceptibility. As the genomic era advances and genome-wide screens become higher in resolution and throughput, the need for simultaneous consideration of multiple loci is becoming more important. With special reference to non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), this chapter will overview the current progress made in elucidating genetic polymorphisms associated with disease susceptibility. We also present novel data from a high-resolution single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarray screen for susceptibility loci that are involved in NHL. Using an ‘informed approach’, the findings are highlighted within the context of cellular pathways, and provide insight and new ideas for methods of analysis for genome-wide screens for susceptibility.

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Lens average and equivalent refractive indices are required for purposes such as lens thickness estimation and optical modeling. We modeled the refractive index gradient as a power function of the normalized distance from lens center. Average index along the lens axis was estimated by integration. Equivalent index was estimated by raytracing through a model eye to establish ocular refraction, and then backward raytracing to determine the constant refractive index yielding the same refraction. Assuming center and edge indices remained constant with age, at 1.415 and 1.37 respectively, average axial refractive index increased (1.408 to 1.411) and equivalent index decreased (1.425 to 1.420) with age increase from 20 to 70 years. These values agree well with experimental estimates based on different techniques, although the latter show considerable scatter. The simple model of index gradient gives reasonable estimates of average and equivalent lens indices, although refinements in modeling and measurements are required.

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In this paper I integrate the work of a number of philosophers to clarify some psychological issues that can arise in human existence when a conflict of intrapersonal or interpersonal desires arises. This paper utilises the work of Deleuze, Freud, Jung, Heidegger, Hegel and Nietzsche to provide a conceptual framework as to how mental disturbances can arise if unconscious desires cannot be satisfied due to the experience of a resistance from a conflicting or opposing desire. This paper argues that the phenomenal experience of a conflict of desires can be unconcealed in moments of un-readiness-to-hand and from the awareness of the psychophysiological experience of stress or angst. The work that is presented, results in the conclusion that it is fundamentally necessary to embrace Nietzsche’s idea of the ‘will to power’ to overcome these difficulties and to achieve personal individuation and authentic wellbeing. This advice is in contrast to an inauthentic choice of depending on the use of Freudian defence mechanisms to conceal a conflict of desires from consciousness. A detailed theoretical example of the process involved in the resolution of a conflict of desires through self-transcendence is specifically informed by the ideas of Nietzsche and Jung.

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At the highest level of competitive sport, nearly all performances of athletes (both training and competitive) are chronicled using video. Video is then often viewed by expert coaches/analysts who then manually label important performance indicators to gauge performance. Stroke-rate and pacing are important performance measures in swimming, and these are previously digitised manually by a human. This is problematic as annotating large volumes of video can be costly, and time-consuming. Further, since it is difficult to accurately estimate the position of the swimmer at each frame, measures such as stroke rate are generally aggregated over an entire swimming lap. Vision-based techniques which can automatically, objectively and reliably track the swimmer and their location can potentially solve these issues and allow for large-scale analysis of a swimmer across many videos. However, the aquatic environment is challenging due to fluctuations in scene from splashes, reflections and because swimmers are frequently submerged at different points in a race. In this paper, we temporally segment races into distinct and sequential states, and propose a multimodal approach which employs individual detectors tuned to each race state. Our approach allows the swimmer to be located and tracked smoothly in each frame despite a diverse range of constraints. We test our approach on a video dataset compiled at the 2012 Australian Short Course Swimming Championships.