Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

The Day Roads Became Rivers: A GIS-Based Assessment of Flash Floods in Worcester

In the last 4 years Worcester, UK has been hit by several intense convective rainstorms, which caused flash floods outside of existing surface drainage networks. This paper addresses two questions related to such events: Firstly to what extent can the occurrence of flash flood flow accumulation can be determined using only commonly available data and tools, assuming the rainfall events caused mainly surface runoff due to their tropical intensity and the relatively impermeable urban catchment surface? Secondly, are the flood in-cidents in Worcester aggravated by roads serving as preferential flow paths under these conditions? The as-sessment results indicated that roads do not have an influence on the flow path of flash flood rainfall in Worcester. Flow accumulation calculated with a 10m DEM, corresponds well with reported flood incidents. This basic assessment method can be used to inform the implementation of non structural flood mitigation and public awareness.

Relative Efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day, Rotorod and Burkard Personal Samplers for Poaceae and Urticaceae Pollen under Field Conditions

Introduction: In aerobiological studies it is often necessary to compare concentration data recorded with different models of sampling instrument. Sampler efficiency typically varies from device to device, and depends on the target aerosol and local atmospheric conditions. To account for these differences inter-sampler correction factors may be applied, however for many pollen samplers and pollen taxa such correction factors do not exist and cannot be derived from existing published work. Materials and methods: In this study the relative efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day Recording Volumetric Spore Trap, the Sampling Technologies Rotorod Model 20 and the Burkard Personal Volumetric Air Sampler were evaluated for Urticaceae and Poaceae pollen under field conditions, and the influence of wind speed and relative humidity on these efficiency relationships was assessed. Data for the two pollen taxa were collected during 2010 and 2011-12 respectively. Results: The three devices were found to record significantly different concentrations for both pollen taxa, with the exception of the 7-Day and Rotorod samplers for Poaceae pollen. Under the range of conditions present during the study wind speed was found to only have a significant impact on inter-sampler relationships involving the vertically orientated Burkard Personal sampler, whilst no interaction between relative efficiency and relative humidity was observed. Conclusions: Data collected with the three models of sampler should only be compared once the appropriate correction has been made, with wind speed taken into account where appropriate.

Determination of Alternaria spp. Habitats Using 7-Day Volumetric Spore Trap, Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model and Geographic Information System

There are many species among the Alternaria genus, which hosts on economically important crops causing significant yield losses. Less attention has been paid to fungi hosting on plants constituting substantial components of pastures and meadows. Alternaria spp. spores are also recognised as important allergens. A 7-day volumetric spore trap was used to monitor the concentration of airborne fungal spores. Air samples were collected in Worcester, England (2006–2010). Days with a high spore count were then selected. The longest episode that occurred within a five year study was chosen for modelling. Two source maps presenting distribution of crops under rotation and pastures in the UK were produced. Back trajectories were calculated using the HYSPLIT model. In ArcGIS clusters of trajectories were studied in connection with source maps by including the height above ground level and the speed of the air masses. During the episode no evidence for a long distance transport from the continent of Alternaria spp. spores was detected. The overall direction of the air masses fell within the range from South-West to North. The back trajectories indicated that the most important sources of Alternaria spp. spores were located in the West Midlands of England.

Intervention Recommendations to Minimize the 30-Day Risk-of-Readmission for Heart Failure

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015

A fair day's wage? Perceptions of public sector pay

There is a scarcity of evidence pertaining to the general public's perception of public sector pay. Hence, in the present study, 161 women and 149 men were asked to estimate the wages 35 public sector professions should receive annually in the fictitious nation of Maldoria, based on a comparison value of an annual income of T10,000 for general practitioners. Analysis showed that only pilots were given a higher annual income than general practitioners; miners and local government workers were also provided with relatively high annual incomes. By contrast, newscasters were provided with the lowest annual income. Participants' sex did not affect these evaluations, and other demographic variables and public sector-related information of the participants were poor predictors of their evaluations. The implications of this research on public attitudes toward wage determination are discussed, and avenues for further research highlighted.

At the end of the day: Macmillan's account of the Cuban missile crisis

Pre-publicity for the final volume of Harold Macmillan’s memoirs, At the End of the Day, stressed that it would provide the British side of the Cuban missile crisis for the first time. The Churchillian model chosen, changes required by the Cabinet Office and Macmillan’s desire to rebuke those political opponents who claimed that the crisis demonstrated a lack of British influence in Washington, however ensured a focus on his personal relationship with President Kennedy. His larding the text with contemporary observations from his diaries also skewed Macmillan’s account and, in particular, underplayed the significance of British moves at the United Nations in New York to secure a credible United Nations inspection regime and a US guarantee of the inviolability of Cuba. Careful reconstruction of Macmillan’s real-time experience of the Cuban missile crisis demonstrates the limitations of his own account of this event

Testing the weak-form market efficiency and the day of the week effects of some African countries

The aims of this work are twofold. On the one hand, it aims to find evidence supporting the presence of the weak form efficiency of several emerging African stock markets by using both parametric as well as non parametric tests. The results indicate that none of the markets are characterised by random walks with the exception of the South African stock market. On the other hand, this study aims to detect the presence of the day of the week effects of these African stock markets. Results show the existence of day of the week effects, that is the typical negative Monday and Friday positive effects in several stock markets.

A beautiful day/Um dia lindo

Tradução da peça.

Day-ahead resource scheduling in smart grids considering Vehicle-to-Grid and network constraints

Energy resource scheduling becomes increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle use is envisaged. The present paper proposes a methodology for dayahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and of gridable vehicles, usually referred as Vehicle- o-Grid (V2G). This method considers that the energy resources are managed by a Virtual Power Player (VPP) which established contracts with V2G owners. It takes into account these contracts, the user´s requirements subjected to the VPP, and several discharge price steps. Full AC power flow calculation included in the model allows taking into account network constraints. The influence of the successive day requirements on the day-ahead optimal solution is discussed and considered in the proposed model. A case study with a 33 bus distribution network and V2G is used to illustrate the good performance of the proposed method.

ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Alright: a distinctive pathway of change from the 18th century to the present day

The origins of the vast majority of the words we use in contemporary English go back as far as Old or Middle English. In contrast, alright and all right in their present-day application appear to be the result of a more recent evolution, as there is no evidence of their use, not even in the two-word form, in the published fiction before the 18th century. Furthermore, there are not in the research literature, at least to my knowledge, any previous linguistic studies on this specific subject matter. The present article is simply an attempt to describe the various processes of diachronic change that brought about the emergence of alright.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Day-ahead Resource Scheduling Including Demand Response for Electric Vehicles

The energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle (V2G) use is envisaged. This paper presents a methodology for day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and V2G. The main focus is the comparison of different EV management approaches in the day-ahead energy resources management, namely uncontrolled charging, smart charging, V2G and Demand Response (DR) programs i n the V2G approach. Three different DR programs are designed and tested (trip reduce, shifting reduce and reduce+shifting). Othe r important contribution of the paper is the comparison between deterministic and computational intelligence techniques to reduce the execution time. The proposed scheduling is solved with a modified particle swarm optimization. Mixed integer non-linear programming is also used for comparison purposes. Full ac power flow calculation is included to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 2000 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.